Martes 26/-4/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos, reunion Fed

[Fenix]

China Commodity Bubble Bursts As Exchanges Curb Goldman's "Biggest Concern"
Tyler D.
04/26/2016 12:40 -0400

During the last week we have highlighted the frightening similarity between the speculative spike in China commodity trading (which has sent industrial metals prices soaring in yet another 'error' signal for real supply and demand) and the pump-n-dump in Chinese stocks. Specifically, as Goldman warns the factor that "concerns us the most is the increased speculation in the Chinese iron ore futures market," and now, as Bloomberg reports, it appears that bubble is bursting as Steel and Iron Ore prices tumble most in 21 months after Chinese exchanges raise margins in an attempt to curb speculation.


This is what the commodity insanity looked like!!

Bloomberg notes that:

Goldman Sachs has expressed its concern about the surge in speculative trading in iron ore futures in China, saying that daily volumes are now so large that they sometimes exceed annual imports.


The increase in futures trading in the world’s largest importer was among factors that have lifted prices, according to a report from analysts Matthew Ross and Jie Ma received on Tuesday. Iron ore volumes traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up more than 400 percent from a year ago, they said.


“While increased fixed-asset investment in China, a bring-forward of steel production (ahead of a government curtailment) and mining disruptions help to explain the strong rally in the iron ore price, the one driver that concerns us the most is the increased speculation in the Chinese iron ore futures market,” they wrote.



As we said ast week, eventually, the excesses will need to be curbed and maybe that starts a new phase of risk-off within China: As one local trader put it:



“The market is moving so quickly, yesterday felt just like the stock market in June last year before the crash... I think how it goes up, that’s how it will come down."



“There have been two days in the past month where futures volumes have been greater than the total amount of iron ore that China actually imported for the whole of 2015 (950 million tons),” the Goldman analysts wrote.

And so, as Bloomberg adds,

To slow trading activity, the Dalian exchange has announced it would be increasing margin requirements and transaction costs on iron ore futures, they said.

nd that has sent commodity prices tumbling...

The most-active Iron ore futures contract dropped as much as 4.4 percent on Tuesday after the exchange doubled trading fees.



The benchmark spot price for ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao fell 5 percent to $62.78 a dry ton on Tuesday, up 44 percent this year, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd.



Other raw materials in China were also in retreat on Tuesday. Coking coal futures, which trade in Dalian, reversed early gains to lose as much as 5 percent to 777.5 yuan ($120) a ton.

As Goldman concluded:"the commodity rally is not sustainable" and along with it the Baltic Dry's misplaced confidence signals.

Venezuela Starts Power Rationing, Oil Production Likely To Fall
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/26/2016 - 13:00

Venezuela - home to the largest oil reserves in the world - will for the next 40 days experience a four-hour blackout every single day, and there are fears that the rationing could lead to unrest and trigger a decline in oil output at a time when the country is barely hanging on.


Sorry Credit Suisse, The Short Covering Isn't Over... But You May Be Right About The New "Pain Trade"
Tyler D.
04/26/2016 13:40 -0400

In Credit Suisse's Top 10 market observations from this morning, we found an interesting comment, one which according to the author would mean some semblance of normalcy was returning to the market.

This is what CS said:

No signs of short covering in Energy/Materials yet the spaces outperform --- this is a change –Pain trade now down?



Notable that Goldman most short rolling basket (GSCBMSAL) underperforms -0.13%, and our short baskets showing very little signs of covering in energy and materials… This is a change from recent days/weeks where days that energy/crude/materials act well we would see massive signs of covering in these baskets



Pain trade down in Energy? LOs are increasingly becoming more constructive/bullish on the commodity (Oil) from here (and thus the stocks) and our Prime Services data is showing that E&P net is increasing noticeably MTD. So net, net to me short covering is well underway and most getting longer. What folks are NOT considering (fully) is Saudi Arabia and MBS hinting at boosting production higher from here (20mb/d by 2020) or that they are uncharacteristically selling their crude on spot now (headlines out yesterday) and they are possibly beginning a new price war, which could elongate the this down-cycle. Oil going lower from here would ruin the party and thus be the pain trade….not many folks I talk to or have talked to are acknowledging that risk; at least openly.

To this we can only point out that the above is only half right: while CS was correct that the short covering indeed had been muted early on, it has since sprang as, for whatever reason, the shorts got their squeeze tap on the shoulder once again.



As for the second point, we did cover the all too realistic possibility that Saudi Arabia was about to boost its production yesterday in the latest price war with Russia for dominance of the Chinese market, one which has spilled over into the spot market.

But while that had a short-term impact on the price of oil pushing it to a fresh 4 day low, today's price action continues in an upward direction, driven perhaps mostly by the weak dollar as algos trade on their favorite correlation.

For now this means that oil has reverted to its legacy inverse proxy, the dollar which is sharply lower today. However, all that may change in just 24 hours when the Fed reveals its latest statement. If the "risks are balanced" language returns, then and only then will Credit Suisse be right, as it will ignite the Dollar's next leg higher as suddenly June rate hike odds are repriced and in the process send oil lower, forcing all the recently onboarded "weak hands", this time on the long side, to unwind their positions.

[Fenix]

Why All Eyes Will Be On Apple's Earnings Report After The Close
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/26/2016 - 14:46

Shortly after the close today, Apple will report its much watched earnings which will be closely watched for several reasons. The biggest one is that since Q1 2014 AAPL has contributed 25% of the S&P’s 4.2% growth rate (excluding the EPS benefit of the company's massive buyback program). Furthermore, roughly 40% of the nearly 9% jump in Tech margins since 2009 is attributable to Apple alone. However, that was all in the past: this quarter Apple is actually forecast to subtract 0.7% from the S&P's bottom line.

Who Is The Ravenous Buyer Of All Those Energy Stocks? Here Is The Surprising Answer
Tyler D.

04/26/2016 14:53 -0400

While one can blame algos and "macros" for snapping up oil the commodity, as Morgan Stanley did recently, another question is who is the relentless buyer of energy stocks to a level that makes little sense from a forward P/E multiple.

The answer may have been revealed earlier today in Bank of America's breakdown of what smart money investors were doing. While we already reported that for the 13th, record, consecutive week, hedge funds, institutions and private clients were unloading risk exposure, one other group of client were buying energy stocks in record amounts: Pensions.

This is what BofA said:

Pension fund clients—a sub-set of institutional—were net buyers of US stocks for the second week, led by record purchases of Energy stocks by this group. They were also big buyers of Industrials and Tech. Unlike the other groups, pension fund clients are net buyers YTD.



In other words, as virtually all other institutions are exiting the market at a record pace that has surprised even Bank of America, one specific subset of "clients" is buying energy stocks with reckless abandon at multiples that only make sense if oil was back at $80: the same group who is tasked with the fiduciary duty of protecting your pensions, dear retired readers.

Which provides a convenient scapegoat for why pensions are set to be wiped out even faster than has been the recent case: blame it all on oil.


These Are The Best And Worst U.S. Cities To Own A House
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/26/2016 - 14:54

At the top, with annual price increases over 9% and as high as 11.9% in the case of Portland, we also find Seattle Denver and - of course - San Francisco. On the other end are Washington, Chicago and oddly enough, New York. We wonder if Case Shiller used the UMich "random" telephone directory to calculate that NYC home prices rose at precisely the rate of core inflation in the past 12 months while ignoring the dramatic moves in the ultra luxury high end segment.


The "Fracklog Trigger": Why 500,000 Barrels Of Shale Crude Could Hit The Market At Any Moment
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/26/2016 - 15:32

Drilled, uncompleted wells could return 500,000 barrels a day back to the market, according to Richard Westerdale, a director at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources. The inventory of wells is known as the fracklog. “Once we start approaching $45 and above, the risk of a much sharper pullback starts to increase as a lot of shale becomes profitable again,” Angus Nicholson, an analyst at IG in Melbourne, said by phone. “It’ll bring more supply back into the market. This happened last year when a swathe of output hit the
market after a price gain and subsequently led to oil dropping to record lows.”


Crude Extends Gains After Surprise Inventory Draw
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/26/2016 - 16:42

With expectations for a 1.75m barrel build, API shocked by reporting a 1.1m inventory draw sending WTI crude above $44.50 - running stops from last week's highs. Gasoline (-400k) and Distillates (-1.02m) also saw draws. Cushing, however, after recent declines from pipeline closures, saw a 1.9m barrel build.


Wall Street In Pain: 163 Hedge Funds Are Long AAPL Stock
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/26/2016 - 17:46

Following the biggest Apple debacle in years, here is the reason why the hedge fund community is about to see even more redemption requests and underperform the market even more: according to the latest GS hedge fund tracker, at least 163 hedge fund are long the name which has just lost over $40 billion in market cap in the after hours. The good news: it used to be over 200 as recently as a year ago.


U.S. Commodity Regulator Was Unaware About Deutsche Bank's Gold-Rigging Until Ten Days Later
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/26/2016 - 19:53

It was not until Friday, April 22, over a week after the Deutsche Bank gold rigging settlement news broke, that the CFTC's press office admitted what many had speculated, when he said he was unaware of the Deutsche Bank story and could find no reference to it in the commission's compendium of news reports of interest to the commission's work. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is the "US commodity" regulator hard at work.



These Five Trends In China Will Change The Gold Market
04/26/2016 20:30 -0400
Via HardAssetsAlliance.com,

Apple spent about five years developing the iPhone, which has changed the smartphone market forever. Until the release, however, nobody could imagine what impact the iPhone would have on the market.

And most consumers didn’t know about it at all.

The same thing is happening with China and gold right now. The gold market will soon be very different than from what we see today - largely due to the current developments in China.

China’s influence will impact not just gold investors but everyone who has a vested interest in the global economy, stock markets, and the US dollar. After all, China will be a dominant force in all, as most analysts project.

Here are the five trends in China that will change the gold market forever…

(Hedge fund manager Dan Tapiero talks about some of these trends in his short interview, especially the #5 listed below.)
Trend #1: China now officially participates in the gold price fix

China has officially established a daily yuan price fix for gold.

Gold fixing was historically held at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). China was not part of that process, so it started its own pricing benchmark.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange’s program includes 12 “fixing” members, 10 of which are Chinese banks. The new gold benchmark will better reflect local market flows and, just as important, reduces gold’s price dependency on the US dollar.

The program has profound implications as the gold trade continues to move from West to East. It will increase China’s influence over the gold price and expand the yuan’s role as a global currency.
Trend #2: China also participates in setting the silver price

China Construction Bank, one of the country’s largest, recently joined the elite group of banks that set silver’s official daily price.

The Chinese bank now bids prices with HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto Dominion Bank, and UBS. That means China now has direct influence on the price of this key industrial and monetary metal.

These two moves makes sense, since some of the world's top gold and silver consumers are in the East—India, Russia, Turkey, and of course China.

It is clear China wants more influence over gold and silver prices—and now it will get it.
Trend #3: The renminbi is in the IMF basket

Last November, the IMF added the renminbi to its reserve currency basket. The prestigious basket will include the yuan along with the dollar, euro, pound sterling, and yen when calculating the value of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).

The long-term implication is that the yuan may one day become as recognizable as the dollar or euro.

It also means China must accumulate enough bullion reserves to stand on the world stage. And by any measure, it doesn’t have enough.

Some analysts believe China has more than the official 1,797.5 tonnes it reported in March, but that amount is 4.5 times less than 8,133.5 tonnes the US holds. Even if China doesn’t want that much, the current total represents only 2.2% of its total reserves.

This means that not only does China need to continue buying gold in massive quantities, it will at some point need to announce it holds a much higher amount. And that announcement will light a fire under the gold price.

You may not trust the numbers coming out of Beijing, but keep in mind that China’s biggest goal is to become a first world economy. It wants to be on the same footing as the US, Japan, and Europe.

And one way to achieve that is to accumulate a lot more gold.
Trend #4: Chinese gold production is slowing

China produces more gold than any other nation.





But even the world’s top producer isn’t immune to the effects of the four-year bear market in gold. Mine production is slowing and is poised to decline for at least several years just like everywhere else.

That’s because the cost of production has risen, ore grades are falling, and reserves in the country are limited.

And get this: China doesn’t export gold in any meaningful amount. So whatever gets produced there, stays there.

Bottom line: China’s gold production won’t make it to world markets. Its output is in decline and won’t be available to meet global demand.
Trend #5: Lack of other alternatives for Chinese investors

This trend is explosive…

As hedge fund manager Dan Tapiero points out, Chinese investors will be increasingly attracted to gold because they won’t want their savings at a zero percent interest rate.

Yet, Beijing has made it clear that it will bring rates lower. So what will investors buy? Government debt yields just 1–2%. High-yield corporate debt pays more, but only 15% of Chinese debt is rated by foreign agencies like Moody’s and S&P, so it comes with a lot of potential credit risk. The stock market wiped out many investors, and real estate petered out.

UBS analysts agree:

Deterioration in China's macro backdrop could trigger flows towards gold; there are a limited number of investment alternatives and gold is poised to benefit should outlooks across the different options turn sour… rotation into gold ETFs would be a relatively easy switch for local equity investors and could gain further traction if equity markets continue to weaken.

That’s not all.

Chinese savers have huge exposure to a devaluation of their currency, as their wealth is tied directly to the fate of the renminbi. Devaluation fears have prompted massive capital outflows from both the currency and the country—some of which is fleeing into gold.

Looking at the big picture over the next 3-5 years—these changes signal that China will be a big driver of the gold price.

[Fenix]

Cementos Norte Pacasmayo reduce ganancias al primer trimestre de este año

Las ganancias de la compañía sumaron S/.28.5 millones, casi la mitad de los S/.53.2 millones del año pasado.

Cementos Pacasmayo reportó que la paralización programada de sus operaciones y el menor avance de las obras en su planta de Piura impactaron fuertemente sus estados financieros más allá de las estimaciones.

Los ingresos de la compañía en los tres primeros meses crecieron 7.7% interanual y alcanzaron los S/.310 millones, debido al aumento 7% respecto al trimestre anterior y al aumento del volumen en 4% con una producción promedio de 900 toneladas por día (tpd) en la planta de Piura. Actualmente, dicha planta produce 2,800 tpd según la empresa.

El Ebitda de Cementos Pacasmayo en el periodo cayó 4% interanual, muy por debajo del consenso de analistas de Credit Suisse, a causa un impacto más significativo de la paralización programa de operaciones, lo que derivó en una caída de 306 puntos básicos en el margen de la compañía, por debajo de las expectativas.

La utilidad neta en el periodo fue de S/.28.5 millones, lo que equivale a una caída de 47% interanual, debido a la reducción de los ingresos operativos y el aumento de los gastos financieros en más de 2 veces desde S/.5,138 millones en el primer trimestre del 2015 a S/.16,839 en el 2016.

Según estimaciones de Credit Suisse, aunque el resultado de Cementos Pacasmayo se ubicó por debajo de las expectativas, la compañía se encuentra en el camino hacia la recuperación. El banco mantuvo su perspectiva neutral sobre el manejo financiero de la empresa.


Publicado el Martes, 26 de Abril del 2016



A partir del 16 de mayo, afiliados a AFP podrán retirar hasta el 95.5 % de fondos

AFP: Desde el 16 de mayo se podrá tramitar retiro de fondos

Los afiliados a las AFP mayores de 65 años que todavía no se hayan jubilado podrán retirar su dinero de esas entidades. (Archivo: El Comercio)

El fondo acumulado en las AFP podrá ser retirado por los mayores de 65 años que no estén jubilados desde el lunes 16 de mayo, anunció la Superintendencia de Banca, Seguros y AFP, SBS.
El superintendente Javier Poggi dijo que las personas mayores a 65 años afiliadas a las AFP tendrán tres opciones: retirar hasta el 95,5% de su fondo, elegir una modalidad de pensión con todo su fondo, o una combinación de ambas opciones (retirar una parte y tomar una pensión con el resto).

Estas personas serán asesoradas sobre los beneficios y pérdidas de beneficios que se activarán cuando se decida salir de la AFP. Entre las pérdidas de beneficios se cuentan la garantía estatal, el seguro de invalidez, el seguro de sobrevivencia para familiares (cuando el afiliado fallezca), acceso de prestaciones de salud, etc.

El afiliado tendrá siete días útiles para evaluar la documentación recibida y tomar una decisión debidamente informado. A partir del octavo día, el afiliado podrá comunicar su intención a la AFP, entidad que deberá hacerle la entrega, tres días después.

Así, desde el 27 de mayo, los primeros afiliados de la AFP que decidan retirar su fondo recibirán su dinero


Publicado el Martes, 26 de Abril del 2016

Standard & Poor's le asignó BBB- al crédito corporativo de Alicorp

La clasificadora de riesgo Standard & Poor's le asignó BBB- con perspectiva estable al crédito corporativo de Alicorp, la mayor empresa de alimentos procesados en Perú, siendo la primera vez que realiza una clasificación para esta empresa.

photo Alicorp_zpstvdfjarl.jpg

"Nuestra perspectiva estable refleja nuestra expectativa de que Alicorp continuará fortaleciendo sus medidas de crédito y generación de flujo de caja. Específicamente, nosotros esperamos que mantenga el ratio deuda/EBITDA debajo de 3.0x mientras mantenga un positivo flujo de caja en los próximos dos años", dice el comunicado de Standard & Poor's.

La clasificación también contempla la exposición de Alicorp a mercados de alto riesgo, como Ecuador y Argentina, además de la baja rentabilidad de su operación en Argentina.

El margen de EBITDA (utilidad antes de intereses, impuestos, depreciación y amortización) fue de 11.1%, en línea con otras empresas del mismo rubro y permanecerá cerca a 12% en los próximos dos años.

Standard & Poor's asume que el volumen de ventas crecerá en 1.5% el 2016 y 2% el 2017, los precios promedios de la compañía aumentarán entre 2 y 2.5% y que el crecimiento de los ingresos será de 4.5% el 2016 y de 5.5% el 2017. El ratio deuda/EBITDA será de 2.3X el 2016 y de 2.0x el 2017.

El Grupo Romero tiene el 45.35% de Alicorp.

(GE)

Publicado el Martes, 26 de Abril del 2016