The Fed’s Market Mover Keeps Changing His Mind
In a world of hawks and doves, U.S. central banker James Bullard has made it quite clear which one he is. And then, on a number of occasions, he has made it equally evident that he is the other.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has developed an unrivaled reputation for changing his mind on the central question of whether the Fed should raise interest rates. He surprised markets again by declaring on June 17 that he now favors raising the Fed’s benchmark interest rate just once this year, by a quarter of a percentage point, then holding it steady through 2018.
Those comments, which made him the single most dovish voting member of the Fed, came just weeks after he told audiences in Asia that he saw more reasons to gradually raise interest rates over the next several years than to hold them steady.
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Mr. Bullard’s abrupt shifts echo the Fed’s own challenges as it haltingly pursues its first rate-raising campaign in a decade. But they also have puzzled the investors and analysts who scrutinize central bankers’ remarks and have marked Mr. Bullard as a flip-flopper.
“He has picked up that reputation, somewhat deservedly,” said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon.
In an interview, Mr. Bullard acknowledged a willingness to change his mind. “I’d like to think I’m data dependent,” he said.
The Fed veteran said he has a strong interest in the often volatile way markets assess the future of inflation, which he said can lead him to change his views on the interest-rate outlook more quickly than his colleagues do.
“A lot of times I’m asked about very short-term things like about the upcoming meeting and what do I think about the most recent data, and I’ll give my opinion,” he said. He added his longer-term views tend to change much more slowly.
That openness to weighing in has made Mr. Bullard one of the U.S. central bank officials most likely to move markets. Research firm Macroeconomic Advisers, which has done an annual survey, said last year that only Chairwoman Janet Yellen had a bigger impact on bond yields.
Some academics said officials need to hone a message that can be broadly understood.
“Perception does matter,” said Peter Ireland, a Boston College economics professor. “Someone could say they’re misinterpreted or misquoted or the audience is not looking closely enough at the details. But in a policy-making environment, the headlines matter.”
Mr. Bullard earned his doctorate in economics from Indiana University, joined the St. Louis Fed in 1990 and has led the institution since 2008.
The Minnesota native is known for an academic style and a tendency to publicly mull complicated and even speculative ideas that can be hard to communicate clearly.
One memorable episode came in October 2014. As the Fed edged toward ending its bond-buying program, Mr. Bullard unexpectedly suggested it should be extended for longer, helping drive stocks higher. Then, after the Fed said it would end the purchases as planned, he praised the decision and talked up the prospects of raising rates.
Mr. Bullard said in a November 2014 interview that his stances were driven by the data and that he felt there were misinterpretations of his viewpoint.
As a voting member of the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year, his views attract extra attention.
Mr. Bullard published a research paper on the St. Louis Fed’s website on June 17 unveiling a new theory that the economy had settled into an extended period of modest growth, stable unemployment and low real-world borrowing costs. In that environment, he said, one more modest rate rise is likely to be all that will be needed.
The position put him at odds with his peers at the Fed. Four times a year, the Fed publishes its voting members’ interest-rate projections via anonymous dots on a chart. Mr. Bullard acknowledged that he was the sole official who believed that only one rate increase will be needed over the next two years.
The Fed voters’ median projection is to raise rates twice this year and keep lifting them gradually in 2017 and 2018. Progress has been halting, however, as officials wrestle with volatile markets and the limited effects of their policies. Officials raised the prospect of a summer rate increase in repeated comments this spring, only to take it off the table at their last meeting this month following a weak May jobs report.
Some analysts said Mr. Bullard’s new stance reflects a larger struggle by Fed officials to understand, and explain, why economic growth hasn’t taken off and inflation remains too low despite aggressive stimulus efforts.
“As they are groping around,” Mr. Duy said, “you are getting this mixed message.”
Write to Michael S. Derby at
michael.derby@wsj.com