Martes 26/07/16 Commienza la reunion del Fed

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Paging Doctor Copper: Metal Wins Fans in Health Care


A burgeoning opportunity for copper producers relies on a simple premise: that the base metal is good for your health.

Copper is used in everything from construction to electrical wiring, but it also has antimicrobial properties that kill 99.9% of bacteria on its surface within two hours, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. That makes it a potential weapon for combating the spread of infections in hospitals and public areas.

More than 150 health-care and other facilities have installed antimicrobial copper alloy surfaces manufactured in the U.S. since 2011, according to the Copper Development Association. Products range from copper carts and sinks to door knobs.

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Some in the industry are hoping that these products will provide a new avenue of growth as other major sources of demand have slowed, even though copper’s health-care uses are relatively expensive and some health-care professionals question its ability to reduce infection.

Copper prices have fallen by more than half since they peaked above $4.60 a pound in 2011, as growth in China, the world’s largest consumer, has slowed. Prices have recovered 3% this year as concerns over China’s economy have eased.

How Copper Kills

Antimicrobial copper kills bacteria by drawing electrons out of the cell and pumping copper ions in. The cell's membrane collapses, it loses nutrients and water, and its DNA and proteins are destroyed. Copper is certified to kill six types of bacteria:

The drop in copper prices in recent years is one factor leading more health-care professionals to consider using the metal. High prices have been a deterrent; installing copper instead of plastic or stainless steel can increase costs as much as 50% according to the CDA.

The adoption of copper alloys in hospitals is unlikely to make much of a splash in the 20-million-ton copper market, since the installations use copper on a smaller scale than general industrial uses.

But antimicrobial copper is gradually making its way into a variety of applications outside of health-care, too, such as public transportation, training facilities, private households and airports.

“Day cares, shopping malls, cruise ships should be made completely out of copper," said Todd Linden, president of the Grinnell Regional Medical Center in Grinnell, Iowa, which has installed copper surfaces.

Copper kills bacteria by draining electrons, which provide energy, and by pumping copper ions into the cell. This destroys the cell membrane, DNA and proteins, causing the cell to die. On stainless steel, which is more commonly used in health-care applications, bacteria can survive for weeks.

Molten copper in Chile. The metal’s antimicrobial properties are making it popular for applications in health care and beyond.
Molten copper in Chile. The metal’s antimicrobial properties are making it popular for applications in health care and beyond.Photo: Rodrigo Garrido/Reuters

The metal’s antimicrobial properties have been documented as far back as 2600 B.C., when it was used in sterilizing wounds and drinking water. But the market for copper use in health-care facilities got a big boost after 2008, when the EPA allowed manufacturers to market registered copper products with public-health claims.

Producers said the EPA approval could substantially increase the metal’s use in hospitals, especially as more-recent studies on copper’s efficacy have caught the attention of an increasing number of hospital executives.

“We’re getting a lot more inquiries than we ever have before, particularly in the health-care sector,“ said Anthony Kulik, director of the proprietary CuVerro copper product at Olin Brass, a copper producer that is part of Global Brass and Copper Inc. While CuVerro still accounts for a small portion of business at Olin Brass, it is an “opportunity for growth for players in this specific industry,” Mr. Kulik said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that in 2014, about one in 25 patients in U.S. hospitals had at least one health-care-associated infection, or HAI. A study led by Albert Marchetti of the Medical Education and Research Alliance estimates that HAIs result in an additional $96 billion to $147 billion in annual health-care costs in the U.S.

In a 2013 study by the Medical University of South Carolina, using copper on frequently touched surfaces was shown to reduce HAIs by 58%.

The growing adoption comes as the Affordable Care Act has put pressure on health-care institutions by penalizing hospitals that underperform on quality standards such as infection rates.

Still, some health-care professionals aren’t convinced of copper’s ability to directly impact infections, and are waiting for more evidence before springing for new, more-expensive components. According to Louise Dembry, president of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, copper surfaces likely won’t help where most bacteria is transferred, in skin-to-skin contact. She said it may even provide a false sense of security, leading to less cleaning and hand-washing.

“To sell this to an administrator, I’d have to have a lot of data to prove this will really make a difference,” Dr. Dembry said.

Copper-industry executives also say rigorous regulatory standards have impeded growth. These include EPA requirements on new copper-based antimicrobial products like registration fees, education plans and prior testing.

The EPA said the process has gotten faster and averages about five months once the application is submitted for a new product.

Issues like regulation, higher costs and established usage of plastic and steel surfaces in medical applications have caused consumption to fall short of initial projections. In 2010, Chile’s state-owned copper company Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, forecast that the health-care sector’s copper consumption could generate up to 1 million tons of additional demand. Most recently, the total market potential in hospitals and long-term care is estimated at 424,000 tons, according to the CDA.

Copper still has its health-care proponents. Since receiving a grant to install copper surfaces in Pullman Regional Hospital in Pullman, Wash., Ed Harrich, director of surgical services there, said the addition of copper alloys has become a priority and is setting aside funds every year to purchase more.

The metal’s antimicrobial properties are winning fans outside of health care, too. Sports teams such as hockey’s Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues use CuVerro in their training facilities, and the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport has installed copper water fountains. Antimicrobial copper handrails are in trains in Chile and buses in Poland. The company Cupron has developed odor-resistant socks and linens by using antimicrobial copper in fabric.

Write to Stephanie Yang at stephanie.yang@wsj.com

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Mc Donalds reporta debajo de lo esperado.

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Presidente electo de Perú podría renegociar contratos de gas natural: futuro ministro de Economía

LIMA (Reuters) - El presidente electo de Perú, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, buscará renegociar los contratos de producción y exportación de gas natural para aumentar los ingresos para el país andino, dijo su futuro ministro de Economía en una entrevista emitida el lunes.

Alfredo Thorne, un ex ejecutivo de JP Morgan Chase que asumirá el jueves en el gabinete de Kuczynski, dijo que Perú podría vender gas natural licuado (GNL) a mejores precios si desvía sus envíos para México a otros países de América Latina.

Perú acordó exportar GNL a México antes de que el auge del gas de esquisto en Estados Unidos hiciera caer los precios.

"Los mexicanos hoy día están conectados al gas muy barato de Estados Unidos (...) hemos visto varias posibilidades de venderlo, ya sea dentro de la región a precios mucho más atractivos para nosotros", dijo Thorne en una entrevista con el canal de televisión local Canal N.

Royal Dutch Shell exporta GNL de Perú, y el consorcio Perú LNG, controlado por Hunt Oil Co, opera la planta de licuefacción de gas natural del país andino.

Thorne agregó que el próximo gobierno también planea proponer que se fije un precio de referencia más alto para el gas natural producido por el consorcio Camisea, controlado por la energética argentina Pluspetrol, a cambio de un mayor porcentaje de las regalías.

"Todo eso lo deberíamos de ir anunciando entre ahora y diciembre de este año", declaró Thorne.

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Markets Largely Flat Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

U.S. futures and European stocks were little changed Tuesday as investors held fire ahead of major central bank meetings this week and the latest wave of corporate earnings results in the U.S.

Futures markets pointed to a small opening loss for the S&P 500 after Wall Street pulled back from record highs on Monday.

The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.1% recently, with gains in auto and mining shares offsetting declines in banking and energy stocks.

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The spotlight has fallen on central banks in recent weeks as investors pin their hopes on further monetary stimulus out of Europe and Japan to boost markets and counter any negative economic impact from Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

Investors will also be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is scheduled to end Wednesday, for clues on whether the bank will raise interest rates in the coming months following a series of strong U.S. economic data.

“It’s not about fundamentals right now. Markets are being driven by central banks and politics. Those are the two big things you need to understand,” said David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton Investments.

“Overall, risk assets have been underwritten by central banks for a while,” he added.

The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.3% Tuesday, after rising to its highest level Friday since early March. The index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, tends to rise on mounting expectations of rate rises.

Elsewhere in currencies, the euro edged higher against the dollar to $1.1007.

European oil and gas stocks slipped after energy shares on Wall Street declined on falling oil prices Monday. Brent crude oil was recently 0.6% lower at $44.45 a barrel.

Shares in BP PLC , meanwhile, were down around 2% after the British oil giant posted its third straight quarterly loss.

European bank stocks also fell Tuesday. Banking shares are still up around 5% this month, recovering from a sharp post-Brexit selloff. Some Italian banks were under pressure, as investors look ahead to stress test results expected later this week.

In other corporate news, shares in SABMiller PLC were down 0.5% after Anheuser-Busch InBev NV raised its offer for its beer-brewing rival.

Later Tuesday, investors will have a raft of U.S. corporate earnings to digest, including McDonald’s Corp. and Caterpillar Inc., as well as Apple Inc. and Twitter Inc. after the closing bell.

Earnings are also expected from Verizon Communications Inc., which said on Monday it would buy Yahoo Inc. ’s Web assets for $4.83 billion in cash.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline for a fourth quarter in a row. Still, most reports so far have been solid, if unspectacular. With just over a quarter of earnings released, 65% of companies have beaten estimates, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, just below the historical average of 66%.

“The U.S. economy is a positive,” said Jeroen Blokland, a senior portfolio manager at Robeco. “Investors anticipate that will lead to more earnings growth.”

Asian markets mostly gained Tuesday, with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average, which closed down 1.4% as a stronger yen weighed on exporters. The yen was recently 1.2% higher against the dollar after a report published on Tuesday by the Nikkei business daily suggested an eagerly-awaited fiscal stimulus package from Tokyo may fall short of expectations.

Japan’s currency has been volatile in recent sessions as traders anticipate further easing at the Bank of Japan ’s meeting concluding Friday. Meanwhile, attention on the timing of the next Fed rate rise has intensified following a string of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data releases.

“We do have some concerns that investors are a little bit too complacent on the Fed and a little bit too optimistic about the [European Central Bank] and the Bank of Japan,” said David Riley, head of credit strategy at BlueBay Asset Management.

Franklin Templeton’s Mr. Zahn said it was difficult to see a rate increase before the U.S. presidential elections in November, but that December is still on the table.

“The Fed has more of a global focus than in the past. If you look at U.S. growth, inflation and unemployment they definitely should be hiking rates,” he said.

—Kenan Machado contributed to this article

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BP profit slump

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BP profits slump, Weale turns, and Sanders endorses Clinton. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

BP Plc posted a 45 percent slump in earnings, saying adjusted profit dropped to $720 million from $1.3 billion a year earlier — below analysts' expectations. Continuing low oil prices and "significant pressure" on refining margins hit the company's bottom line. Shares in the oil major were 2.4 percent lower in London trading at 5:45 a.m. ET. Oil itself fell to a three-month low this morning, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for September delivery trading as low as $42.59.

BOE policymaker changes mind

Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale has said that he now favors immediate stimulus for the U.K. economy as Brexit has led to a "dramatic deterioration" in short-term indicators. Weale's comments in an interview with the Financial Times represent a change from his position last week when he said he'd require harder evidence of Brexit's impact before he'd support additional stimulus. The next policy meeting at the central bank is on August 4. The pound slid after Weale's comment were published, but had recovered to trade at $1.3126 by 6:20 a.m. ET.

Apple earnings

Apple Inc. reports earnings after the bell today, and investors will be keep a close eye on iPhone sales and indications of increasing competition pressure in China and India. One analyst has already decided that the company has peaked, with Colin Gillis of BGC Financial L.P. downgrading it with a price target of $85 a share, almost 13 percent below Monday's closing value.

Markets slip

There was a mixed session overnight in Asia, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing 0.5 percent as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at a December high while Japan's Topix index dropped 1.4 percent, with exporters hit by the strengthening yen. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent lower at 6:11 a.m. ET as the drop in BP and banks ahead of Friday's stress test results was offset by gains in miners. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1 percent.

Sanders backs Clinton

Bernie Sanders said that he stands with Hillary Clinton in his speech to the Democratic Convention yesterday, to the chagrin of some of his supporters at the event. Backers of the Senator from Vermont are furious over leaked emails which appear to show that the party actively supported Clinton over Sanders. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has seized on the discord the leak has caused within the Democratic party.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

Odd Lots: A professor explains how the Fed made a huge mistake with Lehman.
Brexit's biggest fans face new £115 billion pension hole.
Russia's currency is turning a blind eye to oil prices.
It's not a search for yield, but a scramble for safety.
Citigroup, HSBC jettison customers as era of global empire ends.
Zinc, the metal investors love this year, has an ugly sister.
Why we should drink cockroach milk.
Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

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El verdadero desempleo es 9.6%
Trump Campaign Revives Debate: Is the Unemployment Rate ‘Artificial’?

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks Monday in Virginia. He’s suggested throughout his campaign that the jobless rate is far higher than official statistics reflect. ENLARGE
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks Monday in Virginia. He’s suggested throughout his campaign that the jobless rate is far higher than official statistics reflect. Photo: Carlo Allegri/Reuters

By
Josh Zumbrun
Jul 26, 2016 7:00 am ET
How the U.S. measures the unemployment rate has often been a political hot button, especially during presidential election years.

That debate was revived this weekend by Donald Trump Jr., the son of the Republican presidential candidate, who said in an interview on CNN that the jobs numbers “are artificial numbers. These are numbers that are massaged to make the existing economy look good and make the administration look good when in fact it’s a total disaster.”

This is not the first time someone has cast aspersions on the jobs numbers. Criticisms have taken two forms in recent years. Some have hinted the numbers are fabricated for political purposes, though no evidence has suggested this.

Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, has mostly stuck to a second line of argument—that the measure of unemployment that we focus on uses a flawed definition of unemployment.

The Labor Department’s monthly statistics, which date back to 1948, have always defined unemployment as without a job and actively looking for work. (In 1948, 70% of women didn’t work and it would have been silly to count them all as “unemployed,” not to mention counting all school children and all pensioners.)

But trying to figure out who you should be counting is tricky, and Mr. Trump Jr. suggested the current method is flawed. The candidate himself has made a similar case.

“The way we actually measure unemployment is after X number of months if someone can’t find a job, congratulations, they’re miraculously off,” Trump Jr. said on CNN. Such people “just aren’t even registered because they don’t count them anymore.”

This is not quite right, but it’s close. The headline unemployment rate includes anyone who is actively searching for work, even if they haven’t worked in years. The people it doesn’t include are those who stop looking. These workers are classified as “discouraged” or “marginally attached.”

These discouraged and marginally attached workers are not in the headline statistics that are the typical focus of media coverage and political debate. The Labor Department doesn’t ignore them, however, nor does it miraculously count them as “employed.” Beginning in 1994, the Labor Department has provided monthly estimates of the unemployment rate if you include discouraged or marginally attached workers. These measures are sometimes known by the Labor Department’s nomenclature for these series: U-3, U-4, U-5 and U-6.

%
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Note: Seasonally adjusted
Source: Labor Department
Recession
Broader Measures
Alternate measures of theunemployment andunderemployment rate
Officialunemploymentrate
Plusdiscouragedworkers
Plusmarginallyattached
Plus part-time foreconomicreasons
2000
’10
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
Official unemployment rateSept. 20074.7%

Mr. Trump Jr. is correct on this point: If you include all the people who want a job, you get a higher figure than the traditional unemployment rate. If you include people who work part-time but would like full-time work you get a higher number still—an underemployment rate of 9.6% in June.

Some people have the impression that this methodology was changed under President Barack Obama, or that Mr. Obama focuses on a different measure than his predecessors, but this is not the case. All four measures have been produced with the same definitions for over 20 years, and most media coverage and political debate has centered around the U-3 measure. (The Labor Department publishes each measure monthly and The Wall Street Journal charts all four of these alternate measures each month in our coverage of the jobs report.)

One economist who has often highlighted the broadest measure of underemployment is none other than Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Ms. Yellen frequently mentions the broadest underemployment rate, as part of the justification for the Fed’s strategy of raising interest rates so slowly.

And Mr. Trump has sometimes used the traditional measure. One example came as recently as last week, when touting the economic record of his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.

“Indiana’s unemployment rate—this is the primary reason I wanted Mike,” Mr. Trump said when introducing Mr. Pence. He noted that Indiana’s unemployment rate has fallen from 8.4% when Mr. Pence took office “to less than 5% in May of 2016.”

That’s true, but only if you use that same traditional definition of unemployment. If you include discouraged and marginally attached workers and part-timers who want, but can’t find, full-time work, you get a jobless rate of 8.8% over the past year in Indiana.

%
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Note: Four-quarter moving average, not seasonally adj…
Source: Labor Department
Recession
Underemployment in Indiana
Alternate measures of theunemployment andunderemployment rate
Plus part-time foreconomicreasons
Plusmarginallyattached
Plusdiscouragedworkers
Officialunemploymentrate
2005
’10
’15
0
5
10
15
20
What about the view that the Labor Department numbers are an outright fabrication? Mr. Trump may have hinted this, but not yet to the same extent as happened in 2012, when the view was promoted by Jack Welch, the former chief executive of General Electric and a supporter of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

One month before the election, the Labor Department reported that the jobless rate fell to 7.8% from 8.1% and Mr. Welch tweeted the report was “unbelievable” and “these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers.” Mr. Welch’s view won little support. Mr. Romney’s campaign itself did not adopt this criticism. For one thing, the jobs report that month actually wasn’t that great: the economy added just 114,000 jobs that month, a mediocre figure in recent years.

Skeptics of government statistics may be most convinced by outside measures of unemployment, which don’t produce wildly different numbers. For example, beginning in 2010, Gallup surveys have also asked respondents whether they’re unemployed. Gallup’s survey produces slightly different numbers than the Labor Department (Gallup’s figures aren’t seasonally adjusted, and its survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, so some variation would be expected) but generally finds similar levels of unemployment.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Gallup's figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Labor Department, Gallup
Recession
Gallup Check
Since 2010, Gallup's tracking pollhas also asked people whetherthey are unemployed, creating ameasure that serves as a checkon the Bureau of Labor Statistics'jobless measure.
BLS(seasonallyadjusted)

Notably, all these measures tell a similar story over time: Unemployment is always higher if you include people who have given up looking for work. By any measure, unemployment has improved in recent years. Also by any measure, unemployment was unusually high for most of the past eight years. You don’t need to cook the books to tell good or bad stories with the available data.

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Alta demanda del cobre mantiene estable la economía global

A pesar de la reciente turbulencia, la economía global parece bastante resistente, al menos eso es lo que los inversores en metales están señalando tras el alza del cobre en los mercados.

En el curso de cerca de cuatro semanas, el Reino Unido votó por romper con la Unión Europea (Brexit), hubo un golpe fallido en Turquía y Donald Trump cimbró al establishment del Partido Republicano al convertirse en su candidato presidencial nominado.

En vez de tomar estos acontecimientos como signos inquietantes, los fondos de cobertura se están metiendo en el mundo del cobre, que depende del crecimiento. Los fondos y otros gestores de dinero triplicaron con creces sus apuestas a avances del precio del metal la semana pasada.

El motor que alimenta esta perspectiva optimista es China, el mayor consumidor de metales del mundo. Las importaciones de cobre del país en el primer semestre alcanzaron un récord histórico, mostraron datos aduaneros la semana pasada.

En el gigante asiático, el sector de bienes raíces creció más rápido que la economía en general en el segundo trimestre. La construcción representa cerca de 30% de la demanda global de cobre, según Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

“A partir de un horizonte de inversiones de cinco años, creo que el cobre es absolutamente fascinante porque no hay una oferta suficiente que esté entrando como para satisfacer incluso un ambiente de crecimiento moderado de la demanda”, dijo Clive Burstow, gerente de inversiones en recursos de Baring Asset Management Ltd. en Londres. “China sabe que necesita acumular reservas para poder abastecer su mercado. Sabe que el mercado del cobre avanza hacia un déficit de largo plazo”.

APUESTAS AL ALZA

Los especuladores aumentaron sus posiciones netas largas en cobre a 18.284 futuros y opciones de Estados Unidos en la semana finalizada el 19 de julio, según datos de la Comisión de Comercio de Futuros de Materias Primas (CTFC, por sus siglas en inglés) publicados tres días más tarde.

La cifra representa un aumento respecto de los 4.868 de una semana antes y es la más alta desde el 29 de marzo. Los futuros negociados en la bolsa Comex de Nueva York se dispararon 3,5% este año a US$2,21 la libra (0,454 kg) el lunes a las 10:25 hrs.

Como se usa en cañerías y cableado para todo, desde electrodomésticos a autos y viviendas, el metal se ha ganado el apodo de Dr. Copper (Dr. Cobre) por su estatus de barómetro económico. Algunos analistas dicen que refleja mejor la situación en los mercados emergentes, como China.

El aumento en la posición neta larga significó un giro para los inversores, que tenían posiciones netas cortas del metal en fecha tan reciente como el mes de junio. La demanda global de cobre subirá 2,1% este año, frente a un avance de 1,4% el año pasado, dijeron analistas de Citigroup Inc. encabezados por Ed Morse en un informe el mes pasado.

La producción de cobre refinado será inferior al consumo en 80.000 toneladas el año próximo, y ese déficit se ampliará a 92.000 toneladas un año más tarde, antes de alcanzar 124.000 toneladas en 2019, estima Citigroup. El banco predice un superávit de 57.000 toneladas para 2016.

(Fuente: Bloomberg)

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Crude Slump, Pipeline Expansion Mark End of U.S. Oil-Train Boom

The oil-train boom is waning almost as quickly as it began.

Rail became a major way to move crude after companies began unlocking new bounties of oil from shale formations, with volumes rising from almost nothing in 2009 to more than one million barrels a day by 2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But those numbers began falling after oil prices started tumbling two years ago, and aren’t projected to recover anytime soon. In April, just 430,000 barrels of oil rode the rails each day, according to the latest federal figures.

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Some of the decline came from a drop in U.S. oil production, but oil and rail executives say the drop-off may be permanent. “At least some portion, and it could be a pretty large portion,” of the rail business won’t return, said Union Pacific Corp. Chief Executive Lance Fritz.

More pipelines have begun reaching North Dakota and other shale regions, giving producers a cheaper way to move their oil to market.

Also, a string of fiery crude-freight-train derailments—including one in Lac Mégantic, Quebec, that killed 47 people in 2013—have prompted a host of new and expensive regulations, and fueled opposition that has helped delay major rail projects on the West Coast, where a dearth of pipelines makes rail useful. Regulators have mandated new safer tank cars, and older tank cars are being phased out—adding to future costs for transporting oil.

The changes are evident in North Dakota, once the epicenter of the crude-by-rail trend. Oil output from the state’s Bakken Shale formation has fallen by 180,000 barrels a day from its 2014 peak. Meanwhile, pipeline takeaway capacity has more than doubled since 2010.

EOG Resources Inc., one of the first oil companies to see the potential for trains to relieve pipelines, opened its first rail loading terminal in Stanley, N.D., in 2009. But that terminal hasn’t loaded a train in more than a year, according to Genscape, a data provider that tracks activity at U.S. rail terminals.

“New pipeline infrastructure has been put in place to move significant volumes of oil to market,” an EOG spokeswoman said.

Enough pipeline capacity is coming online to replace all of the current volume BNSF Railway Co. is shipping out of North Dakota, said David Garin, the railroad’s group vice president of industrial products.

BNSF used to transport as many as 12 trains daily filled with crude primarily from North Dakota’s Bakken Shale, carrying about 70% of all rail traffic out of the area. Now it is down to about five a day.



“Will this business be back to 12 trains a day? Probably not,” said Mr. Garin. “Will it be zero? Probably not.”

Even at its height in 2014, crude-by-rail accounted for less than 2% of total rail volumes, according to Association of American Railroads data. But its decline threatens what was once viewed as a sizable driver of growth for the railroad industry, one that many rail companies, along with oil and gas producers, made investments to support.

Between 2010 and 2015, 89 terminals were built or expanded in the U.S. and Canada to load crude on trains, and nearly as many to offload it, according to consulting firm RBN Energy LLC.

The oil pouring out of U.S. fields was so much cheaper—more than $20 a barrel below international benchmark prices at times—that refineries were eager to pay higher rail shipping costs in exchange for some of it.

New pipelines have helped shrink that price difference by allowing the landlocked oil to reach market. And the U.S. has lifted a ban on crude exports, which allows American crude to be sent abroad freely and is expected to help keep U.S. and international crude prices more closely aligned.

Now oil trains are competing against tanker ships carrying foreign crude. Analysts say rail deliveries are likely to fall even further once shipping contracts signed during the boom expire in the coming months.

There could soon be more than enough space to carry away all Bakken oil through pipelines now in the works. Phillips 66 is partnering with pipeline company Energy Transfer Partners LP to develop a pair of pipelines that will bring North Dakota crude to Illinois and then down to Texas.

The endeavor, which will cost close to $5 billion, is expected to take a major bite out of oil train traffic, even though the pipelines will ultimately bring oil to the Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico, rather than to the East and West coasts, where trains have primarily taken it.

Phillips 66 said earlier this year it may still be cheaper to take that oil and put it on a barge for delivery by sea to the coasts than to send it directly there by train.

Write to Alison Sider at alison.sider@wsj.com and Laura Stevens at laura.stevens@wsj.com

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Los futures del Dow Jones 17 puntos a la baja.

Au up 1,329

Oil down 43.42.65

Alemania al alza.

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LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
UK: FTSE 100 6731.51 21.38 0.32%
Germany: DAX 10237.17 38.93 0.38%
France: CAC 40 4389.99 1.99 0.05%
Stoxx Europe 600 341.34 0.41 0.12%
Hang Seng 22129.73 136.29 0.62%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16383.04 -237.25 -1.43%
DJIA 18493.06 -77.79 -0.42%
Europe Dow 1533.43 4.04 0.26%
Global Dow 2392.66 0.63 0.03%

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LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
Japan: Nikkei 225 16383.04 -237.25 -1.43%
Hang Seng 22129.73 136.29 0.62%
Shanghai Composite 3050.17 34.34 1.14%
S&P BSE Sensex 27976.52 -118.82 -0.42%
Australia: S&P/ASX 5537.50 3.90 0.07%
UK: FTSE 100 6731.62 21.49 0.32%
DJIA 18493.06 -77.79 -0.42%
Asia Dow 2822.62 6.96 0.25%
Global Dow 2392.85 0.82 0.03%

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LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0997 0.0001
Yen (USD/JPY) 104.31 -1.50
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3124 -0.0016
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7535 0.0065
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9905 0.0046
WSJ Dollar Index 87.78 -0.25
Futures9:02 AM EDT 7/26/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 42.48 -0.65 -1.51%
Brent Crude 44.25 -0.47 -1.05%
Gold 1329.2 2.0 0.15%
Silver 19.655 0.008 0.04%
E-mini DJIA 18406 -14 -0.08%
E-mini S&P 500 2161.50 -0.75 -0.03%

Government Bonds9:11 AM EDT 7/26/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 6/32 1.554
German 10 Year 2/32 -0.045
Japan 10 Year 5/32 -0.254

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Futures LAST CHANGE % CHG
See all Futures
Crude Oil 42.45 -0.68 -1.58%
Brent Crude 44.24 -0.48 -1.07%
Natural Gas 2.661 -0.051 -1.88%
Gasoline 1.3160 -0.0175 -1.31%
Gold 1328.9 1.7 0.13%
Silver 19.645 -0.002 -0.01%
Corn 339.00 -2.25 -0.66%
Wheat 422.0 -7.0 -1.63%
E-mini DJIA 18408 -12 -0.07%
E-mini S&P 500 2161.50 -0.75 -0.03%
Indexes LAST CHANGE % CHG
TR/CC CRD Index 180.005 -1.306 -0.72%
S&P GSCI 341.90 -3.25 -0.94%

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