Viernes 29/07/16 GDP (PBI)

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Hillary’s One-Candidate Race

Philadelphia

Conventions are useful for clarifying elections, and this week’s Philly confab notably so. A week of speakers—Democrat after Democrat beseeching the nation to please know that Hillary Clinton really is a good gal—has made something clear: This is, essentially, a one-person presidential race.

It’s Hillary against Hillary. This November is about whether Americans can look at 40 years of Clinton chicanery and nearly a decade of broken Obama promises, and still pull the lever for her. Not that Donald Trump doesn’t matter. He does, in that he can help sharpen those concerns. But Hillary is the main event.

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The polls bear this out. Aside from his recent convention bump, Mr. Trump’s numbers have been largely consistent. Whether he leads or trails, and by how much, is mostly a function of voters’ shifting views on Mrs. Clinton. Lately her poll numbers have been devastating.

A CNN survey this week showed 68% of voters say she isn’t honest and trustworthy—an all-time high. CBS found virtually the same number: 67%. In the CNN poll, meanwhile, only 39% of voters said they held a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton. This is lower than any time CNN has polled Hillary since the spring of 1992—before she was first lady.

Mr. Trump’s poll numbers also bear this out. He is currently leading in the Real Clear Politics average despite no real ground game, little real fundraising, little policy message, a divided conservative electorate, and one of the messiest conventions on record. As of June 30, Mrs. Clinton and her allies had raised a stunning $600 million, which is already being spent to trash Mr. Trump. Yet to little or no effect. Mr. Trump is hardly a potted plant, but even if he were . . .

Mrs. Clinton’s problem is Mrs. Clinton. She is running against her own ethical morass. Already she was asking voters to forget about cattle futures and fake sniper fire and Whitewater and Travelgate. Then she chose to vividly revive the public nausea with her self-serving email stunt and her Clinton Foundation money grubbing.

Oh, she tried to roll out the usual Clinton defense: that this was just part of a renewed attack by political enemies. Yet the neutral inspector general of the State Department slammed her handling of official email; the FBI director (who works for Barack Obama) attested that she was careless with classified information; and she was caught on tape telling a series of lies about the situation. All of which makes it tough to blame the vast right-wing conspiracy. Tim Kaine ’s many assurances that he “trusts” Mrs. Clinton was the campaign’s public acknowledgment that almost no one else in the nation does.

Hillary is running, too, against the reality of President Obama policies, which she promises not only to continue, but to build on. The president’s glowing appraisal Wednesday night of his time in office bore no relation to the country most Americans see—one in which health care costs more than ever, they struggle to pay the bills, and terror attacks on Western democracies are a weekly event. The state of the country might not be quite so grim as Mr. Trump painted it in Cleveland, but the mood is much closer to that grimness than to Mr. Obama’s forced optimism.

The president’s policies, which Mrs. Clinton now owns, have alienated significant tranches of voters that she needs this fall—in particular blue-collar Democrats. Coal communities are rejecting Hillary outright. Many union workers are too, whether they be Teamsters for Trump, or police officers appalled by the Democratic Party’s attacks on their profession.

Mrs. Clinton is trying to win back that blue-collar support by moving sharply on issues like free trade, but she’ll be hard pressed to out-populist Mr. Trump on that score. Whatever Bill says, Americans do not look at Hillary and see “change”—at least not the kind of change they are after.

Hillary is also running against her own party, which has moved left without her. She has chased after progressives, adopting one position after another from Bernie Sanders, feting Elizabeth Warren, working “progressive” into every sentence. But this week showed that her party’s liberal wing is unconvinced, still feeling the Bern. Yes, she has done some uniting in Philly, and will likely get her own bump. At the same time, 45% of Democrats who voted in the primary told that CNN pollster they still wish Sanders were the nominee.

Mrs. Clinton will continue to warn that her opponent is a threat, to try to worry voters enough that they overcome their misgivings about her. Mr. Trump can certainly make that job easier for her. Conversely, he can help his own numbers and campaign by focusing precisely on her vulnerabilities, and by presenting a stronger policy agenda of his own.

Mrs. Clinton is ultimately banking that a significant number of Americans won’t be able to vote for Mr. Trump. Certainly some won’t. But a dislike of Mr. Trump does not imply a like of Mrs. Clinton—and certainly not a vote for Mrs. Clinton.

Write to kim@wsj.com.

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La economia crecio solo el 1.2% en el segundo trimestre

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy ... 1469795649

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Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3242 0.0080
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7578 0.0074
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9704 -0.0106
WSJ Dollar Index 86.71 -0.93
GOVERNMENT BONDS9:22 AM EDT 7/29/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 8/32 1.482
German 10 Year 1/32 -0.092
Japan 10 Year -1 2/32 -0.175
FUTURES9:13 AM EDT 7/29/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 41.02 -0.12 -0.29%
Brent Crude 42.20 -0.50 -1.17%
Gold 1354.2 13.0 0.97%
Silver 20.360 0.168 0.83%
E-mini DJIA 18332 -44 -0.24%
E-mini S&P 500 2161.75 -3.00 -0.14%

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18407.66 -48.69 -0.26%
Nasdaq 5157.82 2.84 0.06%
S&P 500 2168.79 -1.27 -0.06%
Russell 2000 1216.54 -0.79 -0.06%
Global Dow 2404.33 12.78 0.53%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16569.27 92.43 0.56%
Stoxx Europe 600 341.07 1.60 0.47%
UK: FTSE 100 6714.66 -6.40 -0.10%
CURRENCIES9:53 AM EDT 7/29/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1163 0.0086
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.84 -2.43
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3188 0.0026
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7570 0.0066
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9701 -0.0109
WSJ Dollar Index 86.80 -0.84
GOVERNMENT BONDS9:53 AM EDT 7/29/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 6/32 1.488
German 10 Year 2/32 -0.094
Japan 10 Year -1 2/32 -0.175
FUTURES9:43 AM EDT 7/29/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 40.66 -0.48 -1.17%
Brent Crude 41.87 -0.83 -1.94%
Gold 1347.1 5.9 0.44%
Silver 20.165 -0.027 -0.13%
E-mini DJIA 18352 -24 -0.13%
E-mini S&P 500 2163

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Crecimiento económico de la zona euro cae a la mitad por estancamiento de Francia

BRUSELAS (Reuters) - El crecimiento económico de la zona euro se redujo a la mitad en el segundo trimestre de 2016 por un estancamiento en Francia, mientras que el desempleo se mantuvo en poco más de un 10 por ciento, según los datos publicados el viernes.

La oficina de estadística de la Unión Europea Eurostat dijo que el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) en los 19 países que comparten el euro subió un 0,3 por ciento trimestral en el periodo entre abril y junio, una desaceleración desde el 0,6 por ciento registrado en el primer trimestre del año.

En términos interanuales, el PIB de la zona euro subió un 1,6 por ciento, ligeramente menos que la cifra revisada al alza del primer trimestre de un 1,7 por ciento.

La lectura trimestral estuvo en línea con las previsiones de los economistas consultados en un sondeo de Reuters, mientras que el dato interanual fue mejor que la previsión de 1,5 por ciento que estimada por el mercado.

Eurostat no publica datos del PIB de países individuales de la zona euro en sus estimaciones preliminares, pero la oficina de estadística francesa divulgó cifras más temprano el viernes.

La segunda mayor economía de la zona euro registró un crecimiento de cero, peor a lo previsto, debido al débil gasto del consumidor, según la información publicada el viernes.

En una publicación por separado, Eurostat dijo que el desempleo en la zona euro se mantuvo estable en un 10,1 por ciento en julio tras una leve caída en mayor, lo que significa que 16,3 millones de personas estaban desempleadas en junio.

En tanto, el desempleo juvenil bajó a 20,8 por ciento desde 20,9 por ciento en mayo.

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-30.65

VIX down 12.29

Europa al alza.

Oil up 41.32

Ag up 20.32

Au up 1,352.80

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-30.65

VIX down 12.29

Europa al alza.

Oil up 41.32

Ag up 20.32

Au up 1,352.80

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DJIA 18432.07 -24.28 -0.13%
Nasdaq 5162.32 7.34 0.14%
S&P 500 2173.35 3.29 0.15%
Russell 2000 1217.24 -0.09 -0.01%
Global Dow 2409.48 17.93 0.75%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16569.27 92.43 0.56%
Stoxx Europe 600 341.89 2.42 0.71%
UK: FTSE 100

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18444.43 -11.92 -0.06%
Nasdaq 5166.00 11.02 0.21%
S&P 500 2174.75 4.69 0.22%
Russell 2000 1218.38 1.05 0.09%
Global Dow 2410.51 18.96 0.79%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16569.27 92.43 0.56%
Stoxx Europe 600 341.89 2.42 0.71%
UK: FTSE 100 6724.43 3.37 0.05%
CURRENCIES1:35 PM EDT 7/29/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1160 0.0083
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.19 -3.08
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3232 0.0070
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7595 0.0091
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9699 -0.0111
WSJ Dollar Index 86.57 -1.07
GOVERNMENT BONDS1:35 PM EDT 7/29/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 9/32 1.477
German 10 Year 9/32 -0.118
Japan 10 Year -1 2/32 -0.175
FUTURES1:25 PM EDT 7/29/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 41.43 0.29 0.70%
Brent Crude 42.30 -0.40 -0.94%
Gold 1355.9 14.7 1.10%
Silver 20.345 0.153 0.76%
E-mini DJIA 18366 -10 -0.05%
E-mini S&P 500

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18422.38 -33.97 -0.18%
Nasdaq 5160.23 5.25 0.10%
S&P 500 2172.87 2.81 0.13%
Russell 2000 1219.79 2.47 0.20%
Global Dow 2411

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18426.97 -29.38 -0.16%
Nasdaq 5160.59 5.60 0.11%
S&P 500 2172.78 2.72 0.13%
Russell 2000 1220.21 2.89 0.24%
Global Dow 2411.36 19.81 0.83%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16569.27 92.43 0.56%
Stoxx Europe 600 341.89 2.42 0.71%
UK: FTSE 100 6724.43 3.37 0.05%
CURRENCIES

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http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/07/ ... ar-ii-era/

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http://diariocorreo.pe/politica/mensaje ... eo-687814/

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http://diariocorreo.pe/economia/peru-es ... ta-687316/

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Rio Tinto Has Bounced Back on Stronger Prices for Minerals

SYDNEY—When Rio Tinto PLC six months ago abandoned a promise to maintain or increase investor payouts year after year, minerals prices were in a slump. Then-Chief Executive Sam Walsh said he couldn’t run the business on hope of a rebound.

Prices for its main commodities—including iron ore, coal and copper—have since bounced back. Aided by robust demand and a slowdown in mining growth, the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals index climbed roughly 8% by the end of the first half.

That improvement, which caught many forecasters by surprise, should feed through to better-than-anticipated earnings for top miners such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton Ltd. Rio Tinto’s half-year profit report on Wednesdaywill be the first delivered by new CEO Jean-Sébastien Jacques, who took the helm in early July.

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“In the early part of this year there was near panic over balance sheets, as if the market felt half the listed mining sector was going to go bust,” said Neil Gregson, natural-resources fund manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Now, the market is trying to price in moderately improving commodity prices rather than asking, where is the floor?”

Rio Tinto, which two years ago was fending off an advance from rival Glencore PLC, has garnered attention for how it has been navigating the commodities downturn, with analysts saying its balance sheet is stronger and its mines generate more cash than rivals.

Citigroup this month upgraded its 2016 earnings-per-share forecast for Rio Tinto by almost 10% after raising price estimates on everything from coal to aluminum.

It has made for a rosier picture for Rio Tinto’s top ranks than was the case in February, when a retreat on its old dividend policy was accompanied by a net annual loss and strong rhetoric on the state of the sector. “I don’t think anybody predicted what is happening in the world economy today,” Mr. Walsh said at the time.

Still, it is unlikely Rio Tinto will yet be willing to plump payouts more than anticipated.

Mr. Jacques recently projected commodity markets would remain challenging for years to come. Prices have been volatile and several analysts say iron ore, Rio Tinto’s top money-spinner, could head to fresh decade lows later this year because of rising mine supplies as new operations in Australia and Brazil ramp up.

“I don’t think there will be a clamor to reinstate a higher level of dividend,” said Mr. Gregson, whose funds manage about US$2 billion in assets, including Rio Tinto shares.

UBS AG forecast a full-year payout of US$1.10 a share from Rio Tinto, in line with the minimum the miner forecast earlier this year and roughly half what it paid last year.

Instead, the company is more likely to use its cash tackling two other investor bugbears—high debts and longer-run plans for growth.

Rio Tinto has been somewhat of an outlier in its pursuit of production growth, with projects including an underground copper mine in Mongolia and a bauxite mine in Australia under way.

Some competitors remain in a tougher spot.

Anglo American PLC, in particular, has been undertaking a drastic restructuring that includes unloading many of its mines to steady its ship. On Thursday, it reported a net loss of US$813 million for the first half. On the same day, Vale SA posted a 34% decline in net profit for its second fiscal quarter.

Rio Tinto is expected to report an underlying first-half profit of about US$1.56 billion, versus US$2.92 billion a year ago, according to the median of five analyst forecasts.

Some money managers say they would still like to see better balance sheets before Rio Tinto, or its Anglo-Australian rival BHP, splash too much cash on growth. Repaying debts has been an industrywide problem after companies spent big to expand their operations, chasing China’s rising demand.

“The large two miners still have a significant amount of debt on their balance sheet,” said Prasad Patkar, an investment manager at Platypus Asset Management, which manages roughly 2 billion Australian dollars (US$1.5 billion) in assets.

Rio Tinto bought back some bonds in the first half of the year and Citi estimates net debt will drop to US$11 billion at the end of this year, versus US$13.8 billion at the end of 2015.

“This,” Citi wrote in a July 11 note, “could create the potential for higher payout ratios or capital management in 2017.”

Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com