Miercol 03/10/10 Republicanos ganan la Casa de Representates

[admin]

VIX up 21.86

[admin]

Escrito a las 11 a.m. cuando el mercado estaba al alza..

NOVEMBER 3, 2010, 11:01 A.M. ET.Los mercados suben ligeramente tras cifras positivas de empleo
Dow Jones Newswires

NUEVA YORK (Dow Jones)--Los inversionistas impulsaban al alza las acciones en Estados Unidos el miércoles tras un mejor panorama de empleo y luego que el Partido Republicano tomara el control de la Cámara baja, si bien el mercado espera ansiosamente el resultado de la reunión de la Reserva Federal.

El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones ascendía ocho puntos a 11.197 temprano, mientras que el Standard & Poor's 500 avanzaba menos de un punto a 1.194 y el índice Compuesto Nasdaq perdía dos puntos a 2.532.

Hay cautela en el mercado antes de l muy anticipado anuncio de la Fed, que se conocerá a las 2:15 p.m. hora de Nueva York.

Los avances de las acciones se producen en medio de un gran cambio en el panorama político, luego que los electores entregaran el martes el control de la Cámara baja al Partido Republicano, si bien los demócratas mantuvieron una escasa mayoría en el Congreso.

Los empleos en el sector privado de Estados Unidos registraron un aumento de 43.000 en octubre, luego que las empresas realizaran contrataciones a un ritmo de casi el doble del esperado por los economistas, según datos publicados el miércoles por Automatic Data Processing Inc., o ADP, y Macroeconomic Advisers.

El incremento se compara con el aumento de 22.000 que esperaban los economistas, según un sondeo de Dow Jones Newswires.

La estimación para la variación del empleo en septiembre fue revisada a un descenso de 2.000, en lugar de la caída de 39.000 anunciada inicialmente.

La proyección de ADP-Macroeconomic Advisers comprende sólo al sector privado y no incluye los empleos creados en el sector público.

BlackRock caía un 3,9% luego que Bank of America señalara que está ofreciendo al menos 34,5 millones de acciones en su poder del administrador de dinero, mientras que PNC Financial Services Group está vendiendo hasta 7,5 millones de acciones.

Qwest Communications International subía un 0,6% tras registrar una pérdida en el tercer trimestre, si bien la compañía emitió una optimista proyección.

Garmin perdía un 6,1% luego que informara de un aumento del 30% en sus ganancias, pero esa cifra no cumplió con las expectativas.

CVS Caremark descendía un 0,9% luego que redujera sus proyecciones de ganancias para todo el año.

Time Warner descendía un 0,4% después que sus ganancias cayeran un 21%.

Aetna retrocedía un 1,1% tras informar que sus ganancias ascendieron un 53%.

[admin]

El euro bajando mas 1.4010

-37.69

[admin]

-30.50

[Peterd]

Estan teniendo problemas con el ELEX no se puede entrar.

[admin]

Las ventas de autos buenas, los indicadores de la economia buenos, la creacion de empleo mejorando ya lo dijo ADP se crearon 42,000 empleos en Octubre, el Viernes debe ratificarse la cifra (probablemente), tuvimos las elecciones anoche que son favorables para la economia y el stock market, y ahora en un poco mas de una hora el Fed le dara otro empujon o empujoncito a la economia.

Esta debe ser una semana buena.

Sera por eso que el petroleo no pestanea a diferencias de los otros commodities especuladores como el oro, plata y cobre.

-24.75

Au down 1,338.50

[admin]

Ojo que el triunfo de los mas conservadores del pais no puede ser ignorado por Bernanke. Los Americanos quieren defender a su dolar mediante el crecimiento de su economia y la disciplina fiscal.

[trader]

Estan teniendo problemas con el ELEX no se puede entrar.

La pagina de la bolsa tampoco funciona bien , no actualiza se quedo en las 10:56 de la mañana, que mal esta pagina y eso que no falta nada para que comience la integracion con las bolsas de Chile y Colombia

[admin]

Q&A on QE2: What a Fed Move Would Mean
By Sudeep Reddy
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a new round of bond-buying today to lower long-term interest rates to boost the economy.

Debate is raging inside and outside the Fed about how much good it will do, if any. Proponents say purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars more in Treasury bonds will provide only modest support for the economy. Foes warn that it could backfire by pushing up commodity prices, sowing seeds of unwelcome inflation in the future, or by undermining confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage — and eventually reduce — its holdings.

Ahead of the Fed’s 2:15 p.m. announcement, here’s a rundown of the key issues:

What is quantitative easing, or QE?

The Federal Reserve buildingIt’s the electronic equivalent of starting up the Fed’s printing presses to create money for buying financial assets in the market – in this case long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Buying bonds pushes down their yields, and the interest rates across the debt markets that are closely tied to U.S. Treasury rates.

How does the Fed expect QE2, as it has been dubbed, to influence the economy?

Lower borrowing costs should help some homeowners refinance, even if many others don’t qualify because of weak credit scores or diminished home equity. It also should help businesses that can qualify for loans through cheaper credit, though larger corporations already can access money at cheap rates. (One big question: will all the new liquidity will lead banks to lend more? They’re already sitting on more than $1 trillion of reserves without lending it out.) The Fed figures that buying up government debt, in theory, should push investors into riskier assets — such as stocks and corporate bonds — and raise their value. It also will tend to weaker the dollar, helping U.S. exporters be more competitive in overseas markets.

What did the first round of QE accomplish?

From December 2008 to March 2010, the Fed bought $1.7 trillion of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. The move is widely credited with helping to pull the economy out of a freefall by lowering the yields on those securities, pushing down the interest rates for consumer, mortgage and business borrowing. New York Fed economists have estimated that the purchases lowered longer-term Treasury yields by about half a percentage point, an effect they say translated into lower rates across private credit markets and higher asset prices.

Why is the Fed planning another round of QE?

Even though the Fed has been holding short-term interest rates near zero since December 2008, the economy remains weak. The Fed is falling short on its two primary mandates: unemployment, at 9.6%, is well above “maximum sustainable employment” and inflation is running below what the Fed considers to be “price stability,” an informal target of 1.75% to 2%. Fed officials believe more bond-buying could push rates even lower, though they admit the effect may not be as pronounced as it was before. “The impact of securities purchases may depend to some extent on the state of financial markets and the economy,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in late August. “For example, such purchases seem likely to have their largest effects during periods of economic and financial stress, when markets are less liquid and term premiums are unusually high.”

How is QE2 different from the first round ?

The Fed’s first round of QE was designed around a clear target amount. It first announced a purchase of up to $600 billion in assets in November 2008 and expanded that goal in March 2009 to $1.7 trillion of Treasury debt, mortgage-backed securities and debt backed by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The “shock and awe” announcement, during the depths of the financial crisis, and the markets’ response before the Fed actually made its purchases helped stabilize the economy. Now, with the economy expanding slowly (but expanding), the Fed is expected to proceed with purchasing assets at a measured pace, which it may adjust as economic conditions change. And this time the Fed is only buying Treasurys, in part because some officials had misgivings about targeting a particular sector of the economy by purchasing mortgage-backed securities and in part because the first round of purchases successfully shrunk an unusually wide gap between the rates on U.S. Treasurys and rates on mortgages.

How much could the Fed ultimately buy?

Most economists expect the Fed to buy $500 billion to $1 trillion, at a pace of about $250 billion or so a quarter. Some forecast the Fed ultimately will buy $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion worth of Treasurys to spur growth. There’s no legal limit to doing more, but the Fed would face some operational and technical challenges if it were to buy many trillions of dollars in additional securities. Among them: Buying several trillion dollars would be more debt than the U.S. government is actually issuing each year.

What are the risks?

No one, inside or outside the Fed, knows the precise effects, or the unintended consequences, of more bond-buying. Giving investors incentives to seek higher yields in riskier assets raises the likelihood of creating asset-price bubbles. The low rates of 2003-04 are believed by some analysts to be a major factor in creating the housing bubble, though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn’t think so. At some point – well before the economy has completely recovered — the Fed will need to withdraw all the money it’s printing now in order to avoid a surge in inflation down the road. Some investors don’t believe the Fed will be able to do that quickly enough, and fear inflation will result.

What effect would QE have on the dollar and overseas economies?

Printing more money tends to push down the value of the dollar. While that would tend to help U.S. exports, it also risks pushing up the price of oil and other commodities, threatening an inflation surge that could be difficult to stop if the economy picks up. The dollar already has fallen substantially, and the resulting flood of money to emerging markets with higher interest rates and more robust growth is pushing up their currencies more than some of their governments want. That has led some countries to intervene to resist the rise in their currencies, sparking tensions between the U.S. and emerging markets and talk of “a currency war.”

What else could the Fed do if the economy doesn’t pick up?

If QE2 shows even modest success in pushing interest rates down, the Fed could buy more. Central banks elsewhere have purchased corporate bonds, but the Fed says the law prohibits it from doing so except in “unusual and exigent circumstances.” Fed officials have discussed using firmer language to indicate that it plans to keep rates near zero for longer than markets now expect. They’ve also started talking about how to boost inflation from current low levels, essentially shooting for higher inflation for a time and ease any lingering worries that the U.S. is headed toward deflation. Higher inflation is a way to push “real” — or inflation-adjusted — interest rates down. That, the theory goes, would encourage more spending and investing and less saving.

[admin]

Lo mas importante de ese articulo es que el Fed esta fracasando en dos de sus mandatos: inflacion y creacion de empleo, el desempleo es 9.6% y la inflacion esta por debajo del target del FED.

El primer QE ayudo a que la economia se recupere, compraron $1.7 trillones en esa oportunidad.

Lo que hace el QE es bajar los yields de los bonos de gobierno, promoviendo la compra de activos mas riesgosos como los bonos corporativos y el stock market, se supone que debe ayudar a promover los prestamos, a pesar de que los bancos estan sentado en $1 trillon y no prestan.

La mayoria de eocnomistasn piensan que el Fed comprara entre $500 b y $1 T.

Nadie sabe a ciencia cierta si esto funcionara.

El efecto del QE es devaluar al dolar lo cual debe promover las exportaciones. Esto ya ha creado tensiones con los demas paises.

Todo esto debe ayudar a elevar los precios de los activos (stock market, por ejemplo)

[admin]

Oil up 84.68

-15.36

[admin]

Obama dice que trabajara con los republicanos. (que le queda)

VIX up 21.80

-13.55

[admin]

Obama ha demostrado ser un presidente que sigue su ideologia, a pesar de que el pais le dijo que no estaba de acuerdo con sus politicas, las hizo aprobar a la fuerza.

Clinton en la misma situacion durante su primer gobierno se movio al centro, goberno con los republicanos y fue reelegido.

Muchos dudan que Obama hara lo mismo. Se piensa que seguira con su linea de extrema izquierda.

[carl_]

Paso a la baja el usindex. 76.84

[admin]

Obama dice que considerara las ideas de los republicanos para mejorar la ley del seguro de salud.

-23.84