Martes 06/09/16 PMI and ISM no manufacturero

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Futures LAST CHANGE % CHG
See all Futures
Crude Oil 44.07 -0.37 -0.83%
Brent Crude 46.48 -1.15 -2.41%
Natural Gas 2.737 -0.055 -1.97%
Gasoline 1.2966 -0.0050 -0.38%
Gold 1338.4 11.7 0.88%
Silver 19.715 0.349 1.80%
Corn 325.50 -3.00 -0.91%
Wheat 396.5 -2.8 -0.69%
E-mini DJIA 18519 39 0.21%
E-mini S&P 500 2180.75 2.75 0.13%
Indexes LAST CHANGE % CHG
TR/CC CRD Index 179.236 -0.758 -0.42%
S&P GSCI 344.78 -2.41 -0.69

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Copper September 06,09:39
Bid/Ask 2.0916 - 2.0918
Change -0.0020 -0.10%
Low/High 2.0914 - 2.1059
Charts

Nickel September 06,09:39
Bid/Ask 4.5595 - 4.5618
Change +0.0174 +0.38%
Low/High 4.5194 - 4.5829
Charts

Aluminum September 06,09:39
Bid/Ask 0.7129 - 0.7131
Change +0.0040 +0.57%
Low/High 0.7086 - 0.7149
Charts

Zinc September 06,09:39
Bid/Ask 1.0532 - 1.0536
Change -0.0181 -1.69%
Low/High 1.0529 - 1.0724
Charts

Lead September 06,09:39
Bid/Ask 0.8747 - 0.8751
Change -0.0140 -1.57%
Low/High 0.8742 - 0.8912

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VIX up 12.44

+19.18

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Oil down 43.98

Ag up 19.73

Au up 1,338

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-30.06

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-24.41

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18485.59 -6.37 -0.03%
Nasdaq 5257.81 7.91 0.15%
S&P 500 2179.73 -0.25 -0.01%
Russell 2000 1250.07 -1.77 -0.14%
Global Dow 2481.15 8.24 0.33%
Japan: Nikkei 225 17081.98 44.35 0.26%
Stoxx Europe 600 349.63 -0.99 -0.28%
UK: FTSE 100 6826.91 -52.51 -0.76%
CURRENCIES11:35 AM EDT 9/6/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1227 0.0080
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.35 -1.07
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3423 0.0119
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7667 0.0084
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9730 -0.0069
WSJ Dollar Index 85.95 -0.74
GOVERNMENT BONDS11:35 AM EDT 9/6/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 14/32 1.556
German 10 Year 18/32 -0.102
Japan 10 Year 0/32 -0.020
FUTURES11:25 AM EDT 9/6/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 44.34 -0.10 -0.23%
Brent Crude 46.82 -0.81 -1.70%
Gold 1344.4 17.7 1.33%
Silver 19.850 0.484 2.50%
E-mini DJIA 18473 -7 -0.04%
E-mini S&P 500

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Peru -0.14%
http://www.bvl.com.pe

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Índice ISM de servicios en EEUU sufre en agosto mayor caída desde crisis financiera

(Reuters) - El sector de servicios de la economía de Estados Unidos se expandió en agosto a un ritmo más lento que en julio y la caída respecto al mes previo fue la más grande desde la crisis financiera de 2008, mostró un reporte de la industria publicado el martes.

El Instituto de Gerencia y Abastecimiento (ISM) dijo que su índice de actividad no manufacturera cayó a 51,4 desde 55,5 el mes previo. La lectura se ubicó debajo de la cifra de 55,0 proyectada por un sondeo de Reuters entre 60 economistas.

Un cifra por encima de 50 indica expansión en el sector, mientras que las cifras por debajo de ese umbral denotan contracción.

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Time to Worry: Stocks and Bonds Are Moving Together

Wall Street traders and fund managers returning from the summer break are likely to focus on the obvious: a series of central-bank meetings in coming weeks and the imminent U.S. election.

They also should be paying close attention to some unusual behavior in the market, where the changing relationship between bonds and stocks may be a sign of trouble ahead.

A generation of traders have grown up with the idea that stock prices and bond yields tend to rise and fall together, as what is good for stocks is bad for bonds (pushing the price down and yield up), and vice versa.

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This summer, the relationship seems to have broken down in the U.S. Share prices and bond yields moved in the same direction in just 11 of the past 30 trading days, close to the lowest since the start of 2007.

This is far from unprecedented. But since Lehman Brothers failed in 2008, such a swing in the relationship has been unusual and suggests prices are being driven by something other than the balance of hope and fear about the economy. It has tended to coincide with times of deep discontent in markets, notably the 2013 “taper tantrum,” when bond yields briefly surged after Federal Reserve officials signaled they would soon end stimulus, and last year’s brief bubble in German bunds.

The simplest explanation is that expectations of interest rates being lower for longer—some central bankers have suggested lower forever—pushes the price of everything up, and yields down. When the focus is on the discount rate used to value all assets, bond and stock prices rise and fall together, creating the inverse relationship between bond yields and shares.

Such a focus on monetary policy isn’t healthy. It leaves markets more exposed to sudden shocks, both from changes in policy and from an economy to which less attention is being paid.

“It’s a somewhat mercurial thing, but there are big shifts [in correlations], and being on the right side of those big shifts is important,” said Philip Saunders, co-head of the multiasset team at Investec Asset Management. “You do see some brutal price action at these correlation inflection points.”


This summer provides just such an example in Japan. The supposedly safe 40-year Japanese bond has plunged in price by 20% since early July, amid expectations of fiscal stimulus and worries about the central bank’s ability to ease policy.

There is an alternative explanation for the breakdown in the U.S. equity-bond correlations. It could be that shares are tracking improving economic developments, while Treasurys are being driven by British, Japanese and European money fleeing super-easy monetary policy.

Such an explanation leaves investors vulnerable to a snapback in prices if either global growth improves, prompting foreign money to leave again, or global growth worsens, hurting U.S. corporate profits.

Daily and weekly correlations between stocks and bonds provide useful signals, but the deeper question is what will happen when things next go wrong. Will stocks and bonds sell off together? The past few times correlations broke down, they returned to something like normal in the next equity selloff. That is, bonds still provided a cushion for investment portfolios.

Jan Loeys, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan, thinks government bonds will offer protection in the next downturn in the U.S., as Treasury yields could fall another percentage point or so in a recession, but perhaps not in Europe or Japan. The near-term implication is that investors who don’t expect bonds to protect them in a crisis “have to reduce equity allocation because bonds might not save the day,” he said.

Much depends on what is behind a selloff. For stocks and bonds to fall together needs rising interest rates combined with weak growth. Stagflation as in the 1970s could be one cause; a central-bank mistake could be another.

Or, as Alasdair Macdonald, head of U.K. advisory portfolio management at Willis Towers Watson says, such a breakdown could be caused by a loss of faith in central banks. “Investors might realize that the central banks have run out of ammunition, and they can’t keep pushing up asset prices further,” he said.

It could be that this summer’s price moves were just noise while traders were on the beach, and stock prices and bond yields will start moving together again soon. But keep an eye on those correlations, as shifts often mean tough times ahead for investors.

Write to James Mackintosh at James.Mackintosh@wsj.com

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18508.40 16.44 0.09%
Nasdaq 5267.64 17.74 0.34%
S&P 500 2182.66 2.68 0.12%
Russell 2000 1250.96 -0.87 -0.07%
Global Dow 2484.20 11.29 0.46%
Japan: Nikkei 225 17081.98 44.35 0.26%
Stoxx Europe 600 349.46 -1.16 -0.33%
UK: FTSE 100 6826.05 -53.37 -0.78%
CURRENCIES12:09 PM EDT 9/6/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1239 0.0091
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.28 -1.14
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3431 0.0127
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7678 0.0095
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9720 -0.0079
WSJ Dollar Index 85.89 -0.80
GOVERNMENT BONDS12:09 PM EDT 9/6/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 17/32 1.546
German 10 Year 20/32 -0.109
Japan 10 Year 0/32 -0.020
FUTURES12:00 PM EDT 9/6/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 44.41 -0.03 -0.07%
Brent Crude 46.88 -0.75 -1.57%
Gold 1344.5 17.8 1.34%
Silver 19.870 0.504 2.60%
E-mini DJIA 18500 20 0.11%
E-mini S&P 500 2181.25 3.25

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Chilena Codelco dice mina Chuquicamata se encuentra totalmente operativa tras suspensión

SANTIAGO (Reuters) - La estatal chilena Codelco, mayor productora mundial de cobre, dijo el martes que su yacimiento Chuquicamata se encuentra totalmente operativo luego de una suspensión la semana pasada tras un accidente en el que murieron dos trabajadores.

Después de cumplidas las disposiciones y exigencias de la autoridad, fue permitido el reinicio de las labores productivas en la zona de "descarga 50 sector noroeste", donde el pasado martes fallecieron los operarios en un accidente vehicular, dijo la firma en un comunicado en su sitio en internet.

"Con ello, la división reanudó la totalidad de su proceso extractivo en la mina Chuquicamata y se encuentra cien por ciento operativa", agregó la empresa.

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Cash Piles at American Companies Are Shrinking

Little by little, the corporate cushion is shrinking.

Pressured by a year-and-a-half of weakening profits and splurges on buybacks and dividends, the once-towering piles of money at American companies have started to topple. Cash and equivalents slipped to a median $860 million at S&P 500 Index members last quarter, touching levels not seen for three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While hardly a portent of mass insolvency, the slippage complicates the balancing act for chief executive officers trying to keep shareholders appeased while earnings drop. Spending on share repurchases, which inoculated investors from the sputtering economy for seven years, is getting harder just as the Federal Reserve weighs raising interest rates.

“Those things are going to leave a mark when lending starts to get a little more tough and companies have to rethink some of these buyback announcements and dividends,” said Sameer Samana, a St. Louis-based global quantitative strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, which oversees $1.8 trillion. “You’re seeing that already and it’s concerning.”

At first glance, S&P 500 companies look flush, with cash outside the financial sector at $825 billion at the end of the second quarter, near the highest of the bull market. The catch is that the money is concentrated in just a sliver of the market: the top 50 richest companies in the benchmark index account for more than half the total.

For the other 90 percent, balances are being reduced at the fastest rate since the start of the bull market. Total cash for that group was $385 billion in the second quarter, compared with $447 billion at the end of 2015 and down 10 percent from the year before, on pace with an 11 percent dip at the end of 2014 that was the biggest since 2009, Bloomberg data show.

Money is getting less abundant across industries as some of the biggest companies see reductions. Cash fell 26 percent at Google parent Alphabet Inc. from a year ago, while it dropped 66 percent at AT&T Inc. The largest losses are in oil companies like Chesapeake Energy Corp., where reserves of $2.1 billion plunged to $4 million over the past year. A handful of tech companies also saw their reserves shrink: EBay Inc. and NetApp Inc.’s cash slid by at least 24 percent.

The crux of the issue is deteriorating earnings. S&P 500 companies have posted negative growth for six straight quarters, a stretch that’s been exceeded only once since 1936, during the financial crisis. Analysts see income declining 1.4 percent in the current period, dragged down by contractions at automakers, banks and computer makers.

Earnings before interest and taxes at S&P 500 companies totaled $1.1 trillion in the year ended last quarter, the lowest since 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Most of the cash depletion represents compensation to shareholders at a time when coffers aren’t being replenished as quickly. Total buybacks and dividends in the S&P 500 equal about 128 percent of annual earnings this year, the most on record outside the financial crisis, according to an August report by Barclays Capital Inc.

“If you look at the balance sheet, it’s been exacerbated by the buybacks, dividends and cash levels starting to fall, given earnings growth hasn’t been good,” said David Lafferty, the Boston-based chief market strategist for Natixis Global Asset Management. His firm manages $966 billion.

Pressure is building at U.S. corporations that have chosen to return money to shareholders instead of spending it on plants and equipment. Investor priorities are shifting: companies with the highest capital expenditures are beating those with the most share buybacks in the stock market, S&P index data compiled by Bloomberg show.

An index of companies spending the most on cap-ex is up 12 percent in the past year, compared with a 9 percent gain in an index tracking those with the most share repurchases.

Signs that companies are already growing weary of keeping up current levels of cash outlays are cropping up, with new buyback announcements down $115 billion since 2015 and dividend growth on pace for the worst year since 2010, according to Barclays Plc.

That slowdown in payouts is a concern to Barclays equity strategist Jonathan Glionna, who wrote last month that a lack of improvement in earnings will limit dividend growth, and in turn, is likely to slow the ascent of the stock market.

“The missing ingredient has been that elixir called growth,” Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at the Private Client Reserve of US Bank in New York, which oversees $128 billion. “There hasn’t been the level of conviction to put out anything of consequence in cap-ex. To see any sustained advance we need to see demonstrations of growth.”

It’s not that companies are unable to raise money. Persistent low interest rates and a lack of clarity from Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve means U.S. companies are capitalizing on the same near-zero borrowing costs that fueled the debt boom throughout the bull market. Median total debt in the S&P 500 climbed to $5.43 billion in the second quarter, the highest ever, according to Bloomberg data.

“Borrowing at these incredibly low levels to use that capital elsewhere, even for dividends and buybacks, is the appropriate thing to do,” said Michael Arone, the Boston-based chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors’ U.S. intermediary business. Still, he said, “there’s a limit to how much companies can take on.”

Weakening profits could one day halt the binge. Debt at global companies rated by S&P is already reached three times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in 2015, the highest in data going back to 2003 and up from 2.8 times last year, according to the ratings company.

“As the credit cycle ages, access to capital tightens and borrowing costs increase, lowering profit margins at a time that’s likely to be difficult from a growth perspective,” said State Street’s Arone. “Changes in interest rates will matter very little to Apple’s cost of capital, but it certainly will be more painful to others.”

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18512.82 20.86 0.11%
Nasdaq 5264.70 14.80 0.28%
S&P 500 2182.62 2.64 0.12%
Russell 2000 1252.08 0.25 0.02%
Global Dow 2485.72 12.81 0.52%
Japan: Nikkei 225 17081.98 44.35 0.26%
Stoxx Europe 600 349.46 -1.16 -0.33%
UK: FTSE 100 6826.05 -53.37 -0.78%
CURRENCIES2:13 PM EDT 9/6/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1256 0.0108
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.08 -1.35
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3435 0.0131
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7680 0.0097
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9703 -0.0096
WSJ Dollar Index 85.78 -0.91
GOVERNMENT BONDS2:13 PM EDT 9/06/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 20/32 1.537
German 10 Year 20/32 -0.109
Japan 10 Year 0/32 -0.020
FUTURES2:03 PM EDT 9/6/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 44.58 0.14 0.32%
Brent Crude 47.08 -0.55 -1.15%
Gold 1354.5 27.8 2.10%
Silver 20.150 0.784 4.05%
E-mini DJIA 18504 24 0.13%
E-mini S&P 500 2181.25 3.25 0.15%
MARKET NEWS

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Irán dice que está dispuesto a cooperar para apuntalar al mercado petrolero

Por Parisa Hafezi y Alex Lawler y Rania El Gamal

LONDRES/SINGAPUR (Reuters) - Irán indicó el martes que está dispuesto a trabajar con Arabia Saudita y Rusia para apuntalar los precios del petróleo, en momentos en que Teherán ha comenzado a negociar con la OPEP la posibilidad de ser exonerado de ciertos límites a la producción.

Irán ha sido el principal detractor de un acuerdo de producción entre la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo y Rusia, que no integra el grupo, al argumentar que debería ser excluido de cualquier pacto hasta que sus niveles de bombeo se recuperen de las sanciones impuestas por Occidente y que fueron levantadas en enero.

Su rival Arabia Saudita ha referido que se sumaría a un acuerdo sólo si Teherán participa. No obstante, con la producción de crudo iraní cerca a los niveles previos a las sanciones, Riad ha señalado en las últimas semanas que está dispuesto a apoyar un compromiso.

Rusia también ha sostenido que está dispuesta a aceptar ciertas exenciones, especialmente en momentos en que Irán está cerca de alcanzar una producción de 4 millones de barriles por día (bpd) tras lo cual ya no podría elevar más el bombeo.

Arabia Saudita y Rusia firmaron un pacto el lunes en el que acordaron trabajar en conjunto para ayudar a equilibrar el mercado petrolero, aunque ofrecieron pocos detalles sobre una posible acción para eliminar un superávit global de suministros.

En tanto, el ministro iraní de petróleo Bijan Zanganeh se reunió el martes con el secretario general de la OPEP, Mohammed Barkindo, en Teherán, y dijo que apoyaría un precio del crudo entre 50 y 60 dólares por barril y cualquier medida que ayude a estabilizar al mercado.

"Irán quiere un mercado estable y, por tanto, cualquier medida que ayude a la estabilización del mercado del petróleo contará con el apoyo de Irán", dijo Zanganeh. "Apoyamos los precios del petróleo entre 50 y 60 dólares por barril", agregó.

Los miembros de la OPEP se reunirán en el marco del Foro Internacional de Energía, que agrupa a productores y consumidores en Argelia el 27 y 28 de septiembre, a fin de discutir la posibilidad de congelar los niveles de bombeo. Se espera que Rusia, que no integra el cártel, también participe.

Presionados por el sobreabastecimiento global, los precios del crudo cayeron a mínimos de 27 dólares por barril este año desde un máximo de 115 dólares a mediados de 2014, pero desde entonces se han recuperado a casi 47 dólares.

(Reporte de Alex Lawler en Londres, Rania El Gamal en; Singapur y Parisa Hafezi en Ankara; escrito por Dmitry; Zhdannikov; Editado en español por María Cecilia Mora)