Viernes 09/09/16 Conteo de plataformas de petroleo

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Dow futures drop 100 points after Fed's Rosengren speech http://www.cnbc.com/id/103927659
http://www.cnbc.com/id/103927659

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Los futures can 108 puntos Denison a que RosengreN cambia de posición y dice que deben subirse los intereses.

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http://www.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

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Fed’s Eric Rosengren Sees ‘Reasonable Case’ for Gradual Rate Increases

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said Friday that “a reasonable case can be made” for tightening interest rates to avoid overheating the economy.

Holding rates at their current low level for much longer risks making labor markets too tight, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates sharply, which could result in another recession, he warned in remarks prepared for a morning speech in Quincy, Mass.

“If we want to ensure that we remain at full employment, gradual tightening is likely to be appropriate,” he said. “A failure to continue on the path of gradual removal of accommodation could shorten, rather than lengthen, the duration of this recovery.”

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Mr. Rosengren didn’t specifically say whether he supports raising interest rates at the central bank’s Sept. 20-21 meeting. But his remarks, which echoed a speech in China last month, serve as a warning against becoming too complacent.

Mr. Rosengren’s speech puts to rest any thought that a disappointing August employment report might dim his support for higher interest rates. Although he has previously been an outspoken advocate for holding interest rates low, the strength of the labor market and a steep rise in asset prices have caused the Boston chief to support tighter monetary policy.

The unemployment rate now stands at 4.9%, right around policy makers’ estimate of the lowest sustainable rate. Mr. Rosengren said continuing tightness in the labor market could push the unemployment rate below full employment in the next year, which would result in labor shortages.

The Fed last raised rates in December to a range between 0.25% and 0.5%.

Mr. Rosengren pointed to rising commercial real estate costs as an indication the economy may be reaching the point where low rates may be doing more harm than good.

And even though the Fed has yet to reach its 2% inflation target, Mr. Rosengren suggested the strong labor market would nudge up consumer prices, citing “modest evidence of the upward pressure on wages and salaries that would support inflation reaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.”

Mr. Rosengren is among several Fed officials who say the time is coming to raise interest rates. This week San Francisco Fed chief John Williams said it “makes sense” to raise rates “sooner rather than later.” And Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in August said “the case for an increase in the federal-funds rate has strengthened in recent months.”

Some Fed officials, however, have been resistant to another rate increase, pointing to soft global growth and the central bank’s inability to push inflation up to the target. Fed governor Lael Brainard, who has been among the most vocal to make this argument, is scheduled to give remarks Monday that will be closely watched to gauge her willingness to go along with another rate increase at either the September or the December policy meeting.

Mr. Rosengren, in his Quincy speech, sought to counter those arguments. He said the U.S. economy has performed well despite the weak global environment, citing the strong stock market and low volatility measures.

He said disappointing economic growth numbers for the U.S. in the first half of the year are likely to rebound in the second half.

And Mr. Rosengren suggested the risks of running the economy too hot outweigh the risks of stifling inflation growth.

The Fed’s policy of holding down borrowing costs “increases the chances of driving the core inflation rate closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but it also increases the changes of overheating the economy,” he said.

Write to David Harrison at david.harrison@wsj.com

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Esto pasa cuando el mercado piensa que van a subir las tasas.
18289.69 -190.22 -1.03%
Nasdaq 5201.73 -57.75 -1.10%
S&P 500 2155.90 -25.41 -1.16%
Russell 2000 1238.18 -20.18 -1.60%
Global Dow 2457.57 -32.26 -1.30%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16965.76 6.99 0.04%
Stoxx Europe 600 344.90 -4.42 -1.27%
UK: FTSE 100 6762.39 -96.31 -1.40%
CURRENCIES11:03 AM EDT 9/9/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1213 -0.0049
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.74 0.25
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3262 -0.0032
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7564 -0.0080
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9770 0.0045
WSJ Dollar Index 86.53 0.44
GOVERNMENT BONDS11:03 AM EDT 9/9/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -20/32 1.665
German 10 Year -21/32 0.006
Japan 10 Year -4/32 -0.023
FUTURES10:53 AM EDT 9/9/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 46.33 -1.29 -2.71%
Brent Crude 48.55 -1.44 -2.88%
Gold 1337.2 -4.4 -0.33%
Silver 19.455 -0.223 -1.13%
E-mini DJIA 18198 -183 -1.00%
E-mini S&P 500 2146.50 -24.50 -1.13%

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Inventarios mayoristas en EEUU permanecen estables en julio, ventas caen

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Los inventarios mayoristas de Estados Unidos se mantuvieron sin cambios en julio, dado que reportes previos de las existencias y las ventas bajaron, lo que sugiere un limitado impulso al crecimiento económico para el tercer trimestre.

El Departamento de Comercio dijo el viernes que la lectura plana sigue a un 0,3 por ciento de aumento en junio. El departamento había adelantado una lectura estable para julio en el avance mensual de indicadores económicos publicado el mes pasado.

Las ventas de los mayoristas cayeron 0,4 por ciento en julio, su mayor descenso desde enero, después de trepar 1,7 por ciento en junio. La cifra se vio arrastrada a la baja por un retroceso del 3,5 por ciento en las ventas mayoristas de petróleo, además de una caída del 0,3 por ciento en las ventas de autos.

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18244.64 -235.27 -1.27%
Nasdaq 5178.67 -80.81 -1.54%
S&P 500 2150.13 -31.17 -1.43%
Russell 2000 1235.94 -22.42 -1.78%
Global Dow 2453.49 -36.34 -1.46%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16965.76 6.99 0.04%
Stoxx Europe 600 345.52 -3.80 -1.09%
UK: FTSE 100 6776.95 -81.75 -1.19%
CURRENCIES12:29 PM EDT 9/9/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1206 -0.0055
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.83 0.34
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3258 -0.0036
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7551 -0.0093
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9775 0.0050
WSJ Dollar Index 86.59 0.50
GOVERNMENT BONDS12:29 PM EDT 9/9/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -20/32 1.667
German 10 Year -23/32 0.013
Japan 10 Year -4/32 -0.023
FUTURES12:19 PM EDT 9/9/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 46.22 -1.40 -2.94%
Brent Crude 48.37 -1.62 -3.24%
Gold 1335.8 -5.8 -0.43%
Silver 19.420 -0.258 -1.31%
E-mini DJIA 18154 -227 -1.23%
E-mini S&P 500

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Peru -0.77%
http://www.bvl.com.pe/

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Grecia necesita volver a trabajar en reformas para rescate: funcionarios de zona euro

Por Jan Strupczewski y Jason Hovet

BRATISLAVA (Reuters) - Los prestamistas de la zona euro presionaron el viernes a Grecia para que compense el tiempo perdido y acelere reformas que acordó en un paquete de rescate financiero, a fin de que pueda acceder a más fondos de ayuda.

En virtud de un acuerdo firmado el año pasado con países de la zona euro, con el Banco Central Europeo y el Fondo Monetario Internacional, Grecia puede recibir ayuda financiera de hasta 86.000 millones de euros hasta el 2018 a cambio de realizar las reformas acordadas.

Ante el plazo para aplicar importantes reformas este mes y el cierre de una ventaja temporal para fondos disponibles, funcionarios de la zona euro intentaron asegurarse de que Grecia se mantuviera encaminada en el cumplimiento de sus obligaciones para poder recibir 2.800 millones de euros a fines de octubre.

"Como Eurogrupo, adoptamos el punto y mensaje más general de que el verano (boreal) se acabó (y) que necesitamos recomenzar y recuperar el tiempo perdido", dijo el jefe de los ministros de Finanzas de la zona euro, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, tras conversaciones en Bratislava.

"Y el ministro griego, nuestro colega griego, estaba, creo, convencido de que había un interés general de mantener encarrilado esto", agregó.

El Eurogrupo, que congrega a los ministros de Finanzas de la zona euro, habían aprobado un tramo de 10.300 millones de euros para Grecia en mayo. Una fracción inicial de 7.500 millones de euros de esa suma fue transferida a Atenas y el resto estaría disponible para Grecia hasta fines de octubre, si cumple con algunas condiciones.

Atenas, con un ratio deuda/PIB de más de 175 por ciento de la producción nacional, la más alta de la zona euro, y luego de tres rescates internacionales, espera mostrar a sus prestamistas e inversores que el país se está poniendo de pie de nuevo.

Pero aún tiene trabajo por hacer, incluyendo privatizaciones, reformas al mercado de la energía y el establecimiento de una agencia independiente para los ingresos, que es parte de 15 reformas que prometió.

"Uno habría querido ver más avances (...) pero en los últimos días hemos visto una intensificación de los esfuerzos por parte de autoridades griegas", comentó el comisario para Asuntos Económicos y Tributarios de la Unión Europea, Pierre Moscovici, aunque otros ministros manifestaron preocupación de que Grecia se esté retrasando en sus obligaciones.

(Reporte adicional de Tatiana Jancarikova, Shadia Nasralla y Francesco Guarascio. Editado en español por Patricio Abusleme)

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Stocks, Bonds Drop Amid Concerns About End of Easy Money

Stocks and bonds fell Friday, putting the S&P 500 on pace for its worst day since the Brexit selloff.

Fresh signs that central banks could be backing away from easy-money policies helped boost the dollar, while investors sold shares of dividend payers like utilities and telecommunications companies that have been popular with income-seeking investors while rates have been low. Yields on some government bonds reached their highest levels since late June.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 230 points, or 1.3%, to 18250. The S&P 500 declined 1.5%, on track for its biggest drop since it fell 1.8% on June 27, the second day of a selloff that followed the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.6%.

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Trading volumes were elevated, traders said, something that typically suggests conviction in the market’s move.

“Today’s volume is notable because it shows people are putting money behind these moves,” said Justin Wiggs, managing director in equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus. Still, he said that wasn’t enough to convince him Friday’s declines were the start of a prolonged market slump.

“It still feels to me like a one-off,” he said.

Developed-world government debt sold off Thursday after the European Central Bank declined to pledge further stimulus. On Friday, German 10-year government bond yields turned positive for the first time since investors piled into haven investments after the Brexit vote. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 1.670%, according to Tradeweb, on track for its highest close since the U.K. referendum. Yields rise as prices fall.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said Friday that “a reasonable case can be made” for tightening interest rates to avoid overheating the economy. Above, the Federal Reserve’s building in Washington.Photo: for The Wall Street Journal

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, who has in the past advocated for keeping rates low, said Friday that “a reasonable case can be made” for tightening interest rates to avoid overheating the economy. Fed governor Lael Brainard is scheduled to speak on Monday, a day ahead of the Fed’s blackout period on giving public comment before its Sept. 20-21 meeting.

Recent gains in stock markets have been underpinned by accommodative measures from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan , leaving investors focused on any signs that global central bankers may be changing their tune.

Expectations for a rate increase have bounced around recently in response to economic data and comments from central bankers, though most investors still don’t expect a rate rise in September. Federal funds futures, which are used by traders to place bets on central bank policy, on Friday showed a 24% chance of a U.S. interest-rate rise in September, compared with an 18% chance as of Thursday, according to CME Group .

In September, “there’s an outside chance the Fed will make a meaningful statement or action,” said Ninh Chung, head of investment strategy at SVB Asset Management, but “markets still react to almost every word a Fed official puts out.”

The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, was recently up 0.6%, as the prospect of higher rates tends to strengthen the greenback.

The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.1% as data showed a steep fall in German exports and after the ECB’s decision on Thursday to leave its current stimulus program unchanged frustrated many investors who expected an adjustment to its bond-buying program or hints at other measures to revive the eurozone economy.

European shares fell after the ECB announcement, while the euro gained against the dollar and the region’s sovereign bonds came under pressure. Financial shares climbed on Friday, however, as the prospect of higher interest rates tends to benefit banks’ net interest margins.

“Compared to expectations, you’d almost say [ECB President] Mario Draghi was hawkish,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. Both in Europe and in Japan, “we just assumed central banks would push the quantitative easing button when things got bad again, but it seems we’ve reached the limits of that.”

In Japan, the central bank may be running out of government bonds to buy in the next 18 months or so, analysts say, with the central bank buying roughly $750 billion worth of government debt a year. Yields on 10-year Japanese government debt rose to minus-0.021% Friday.

Asian shares mostly declined, catching up with Thursday’s losses in the U.S. and Europe. News of a fifth North Korean nuclear test further weighed on shares in the region, with stocks in Shanghai, South Korea and Australia ending lower.

Data showed China’s consumer inflation slowed in August for a fourth straight month, leaving room for further stimulus from the People’s Bank of China.

The Hang Seng gained 0.8% despite wider losses in the region, after a Chinese regulator said it would allow domestic issuers to invest in Hong Kong-listed stocks through a trading link with Shanghai. The Hang Seng is among the best performers this week, up 3.6%.

In commodities, U.S. crude oil gave back some of Thursday’s rally, and last traded down 2.6% at $46.38 a barrel. Gold fell 0.4% to $1,336.60 an ounce.

Write to Aaron Kuriloff at aaron.kuriloff@wsj.com and Riva Gold at riva.gold@wsj.com

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18173.39 -306.52 -1.66%
Nasdaq 5150.75 -108.74 -2.07%
S&P 500 2139.05 -42.25 -1.94%
Russell 2000 1226.66 -31.70 -2.52%
Global Dow 2447.84 -41.99 -1.69%
Japan: Nikkei 225 16965.76 6.99 0.04%
Stoxx Europe 600 345.52 -3.80 -1.09%
UK: FTSE 100 6776.95 -81.75 -1.19%
CURRENCIES2:06 PM EDT 9/9/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1213 -0.0049
Yen (USD/JPY) 102.71 0.22
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3252 -0.0042
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7548 -0.0096
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9770 0.0045
WSJ Dollar Index 86.58 0.49
GOVERNMENT BONDS2:06 PM EDT 9/9/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -21/32 1.671
German 10 Year -23/32 0.013
Japan 10 Year -4/32 -0.023
FUTURES1:56 PM EDT 9/9/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 45.93 -1.69 -3.55%
Brent Crude 48.09 -1.90 -3.80%
Gold 1335.5 -6.2 -0.46%
Silver 19.345 -0.333 -1.69%
E-mini DJIA 18106 -275 -1.50%
E-mini S&P 500

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La probabilidad de que suban las tasas subio de 18% ayer a 24% hoy dia.

-309

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Ag 19.25

Oil down 45.86

Au down 1,333

Todo a la baja.

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