Miercoles 26/10/16 PMI de servicios, ventas casas nuevas

[admin]

Climbing Dollar Expected to Hit Ceiling

The U.S. currency has surged in October and is on pace for its second-strongest monthly gain of the year. Yet several signs suggest that the U.S. currency won’t rise much further.

By Ira Iosebashvili Oct. 26, 2016 8:00 a.m. ET
The dollar’s recent rise has put the WSJ Dollar Index within striking distance of breaking into positive territory for 2016 for the first time since February. ENLARGE
The dollar’s recent rise has put the WSJ Dollar Index within striking distance of breaking into positive territory for 2016 for the first time since February. Photo: Ron Antonelli/Bloomberg News

The dollar has its doubters.

The U.S. currency had surged 2.5% in October through Tuesday, on pace for its second-strongest monthly gain of the year, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. October’s rise has put the WSJ Dollar Index within striking distance of breaking into positive territory for 2016 for the first time since February.

Yet several signs suggest that the U.S. currency won’t rise much further for now. U.S. economic growth is slackening, many investors say, pointing to subpar recent readings in consumer confidence and inflation. The slowdown likely will limit the Fed’s capacity to raise rates further next year as necessary for further currency appreciation, analysts say.

Some investors are warning that a nearly six-year dollar bull market is in its last stages. The currency has risen 36% against major rivals since 2011, but the latest gains have been driven almost exclusively by the declines of the British pound, euro and yen. By contrast, the dollar rose against all major currencies except for the Swiss franc last year, and it was the undisputed champion of the foreign exchange markets in 2014, according to Deutsche Bank data.

“After such a big move, you eventually need to wonder when the correction is going to come,” said Thomas Flury, head of currency strategy at UBS Wealth Management, which oversees some $2 trillion world-wide. “This rally seems to be coming to an end.”

A stalling dollar would have widespread implications. It could ease pressure on U.S. corporate earnings and therefore underpin further stock-market gains. It also could boost prices for oil and other commodities denominated in the U.S. currency, potentially supporting commodity-dependent emerging economies.

At the same time, a weaker dollar could spell trouble for central banks in Europe and Asia, which have fought to boost their economies by keeping their currencies cheap.

One potential warning signal is the U.S. current-account deficit, which has widened in the past two years as the dollar’s strength makes U.S. products pricier abroad. The U.S. trade gap stood at 2.6% of gross domestic product in the second quarter, more than 18% higher than 2014. While that figure isn’t high by the pre-financial crisis standards, sharp increases often have coincided with peaks in previous dollar bull markets.

“The data in the U.S. has been OK but not spectacular,” said Daragh Maher, head of U.S. foreign-exchange strategy at HSBC Holdings PLC. “When you have data that is trundling along sideways, it makes sense that the dollar will go sideways as well.”

The dollar is down 1.8% this year, after rising 8.6% in 2015 and 12.5% in 2014.

ENLARGE

Many skeptics see parallels with February, when a dollar rise was short-circuited by a broad financial-market retreat that prompted central banks led by the Fed to take an easier stance on stimulus. The amount of money betting on a higher dollar last week climbed to its highest level since February, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. That could open the door to a sharp reversal if sentiment changes.

Mr. Flury said he is advising clients to use the rally as an opportunity to take profits. He believes the euro will rise to $1.20 against the dollar in 12 months, from about $1.09 on Wednesday.

“We are skeptical about all of this,” Mr. Flury said, regarding the dollar’s recent gains.

Other investors remain sanguine. Central banks in Europe, Japan and China are keeping rates near record lows, making the U.S. an attractive destination for investors seeking yield.

Past dollar bull markets typically have turned when the currency has risen about 20% above its purchasing power parity, a broad measure of relative value, according to Deutsche Bank. Despite its big gains, the dollar has risen only 10% above its PPP.

“As long as the U.S. is climbing the interest-rate table rather than falling down, it has been consistent with a stronger dollar,” said Alan Ruskin, global head of G-10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank.

U.S. politics also may be an important factor in determining the dollar’s direction, said David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Fiscal spending in the U.S. likely would boost the economy and lift the dollar, Mr. Woo said.

Most fiscal-policy analysts, however, say major new stimulus is likely only if one party controls Congress and the White House. For now, many forecasters see divided government as the most likely outcome of the Nov. 8 election, with Hillary Clinton winning the presidency while the GOP, with a smaller and more conservative majority, holding on to at least the House of Representatives.

The dollar likely would fall roughly 10% against the euro and yen in a gridlock scenario, Mr. Woo said. Together, the two currencies account for more than 50% of the WSJ Dollar Index.

“I cannot remember a time in recent memory that politics were so important to the dollar,” he said.

Write to Ira Iosebashvili at ira.iosebashvili@wsj.com

[admin]

Oil down 49.07

Au down 1,272

Los futures del Dow Jones 64 puntos a la baja.

Europa a la baja

Euro up 1.0920

[admin]

Price: US$/lb

Copper October 26,08:39
Bid/Ask 2.1399 - 2.1403
Change -0.0011 -0.05%
Low/High 2.1312 - 2.1432
Charts

Nickel October 26,08:39
Bid/Ask 4.5966 - 4.5988
Change -0.0210 -0.46%
Low/High 4.5836 - 4.6471
Charts

Aluminum October 26,08:39
Bid/Ask 0.7580 - 0.7582
Change +0.0045 +0.60%
Low/High 0.7521 - 0.7607
Charts

Zinc October 26,08:39
Bid/Ask 1.0619 - 1.0621
Change -0.0059 -0.55%
Low/High 1.0596 - 1.0696
Charts

Lead October 26,08:39
Bid/Ask 0.9329 - 0.9333
Change +0.0039 +0.42%
Low/High 0.9246 - 0.9383
Cha

[admin]

LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
Japan: Nikkei 225 17391.84 26.59 0.15%
Hang Seng 23325.43 -239.68 -1.02%
Shanghai Composite 3116.31 -15.63 -0.50%
S&P BSE Sensex 27836.51 -254.91 -0.91%
Australia: S&P/ASX 5359.80 -83.00 -1.52%
UK: FTSE 100 6943.12 -74.52 -1.06%
DJIA 18169.27 -53.76 -0.30%
Asia Dow 2994.49 -12.14 -0.40%
Global Dow 2449.00 -3.40 -0.14%

[admin]

LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
UK: FTSE 100 6943.88 -73.76 -1.05%
Germany: DAX 10675.23 -82.08 -0.76%
France: CAC 40 4520.00 -20.84 -0.46%
Stoxx Europe 600 340.76 -2.31 -0.67%
Hang Seng 23325.43 -239.68 -1.02%
Japan: Nikkei 225 17391.84 26.59 0.15%
DJIA 18169.27 -53.76 -0.30%
Europe Dow 1521.61 -2.55 -0.17%
Global Dow 2448.90 -3.50 -0.14%

[admin]

LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0924 0.0035
Yen (USD/JPY) 104.33 0.10
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2210 0.0021
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7675 0.0029
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9922 -0.0022
WSJ Dollar Index 88.49 -0.09
Futures8:40 AM EDT 10/26/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 49.07 -0.89 -1.78%
Brent Crude 49.83 -0.96 -1.89%
Gold 1272.2 -1.4 -0.11%
Silver 17.710 -0.070 -0.39%
E-mini DJIA 18033 -64 -0.35%
E-mini S&P 500 2130.25 -7.75 -0.36%

Government Bonds8:50 AM EDT 10/26/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -5/32 1.779
German 10 Year -18/32 0.091
Japan 10 Year -1/32 -0.061

[admin]

Commodities & Futures
8:41 AM EDT 10/26/2016
Futures LAST CHANGE % CHG
See all Futures
Crude Oil 49.06 -0.90 -1.80%
Brent Crude 49.82 -0.97 -1.91%
Natural Gas 3.248 -0.068 -2.05%
Gasoline 1.4577 -0.0282 -1.90%
Gold 1272.4 -1.2 -0.09%
Silver 17.705 -0.075 -0.42%
Corn 350.25 1.00 0.29%
Wheat 406.0 1.8 0.43%
E-mini DJIA 18032 -65 -0.36%
E-mini S&P 500 2130.50 -7.50 -0.35%
Indexes LAST CHANGE % CHG
TR/CC CRB Index 188.240 -1.106 -0.58%
S&P GSCI 369.46 -3.65 -0.98%

[admin]

-81

[admin]

AAPL -3.74%

Oil down 49.01VIX up 14.24

Europa a la baja.

-103.34

Au 1,274

[admin]

-77.60

[admin]

AAPL -3.59%

VIX up 14.14

[admin]

-84.78

[admin]

Las solicitudes de hipotecas bajaron 4.1%
El balance de las exportaciones menos las importaciones bajaron a -$56.1 billones.

El PMI de servicios sube de 51.9 a 54.8

Las ventas de casas nuevas fueron menores a las esperadas, bajaron de 609 K a 593 K

AAPL es responsable de la caida del mercado hoy dia. Un tercio del peso.

-78.41

[admin]

OIl up 49.98

+4.57

En azul

[admin]

AAPL -2.87%