Jueves 27.10/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos

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Pedidos de bienes de capital subyacentes en EEUU caen inesperadamente en septiembre

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Los nuevos pedidos de bienes de capital manufacturados en Estados Unidos cayeron en septiembre ante la debilidad de la demanda de computadoras y productos electrónicos, lo que podría reducir las expectativas de una aceleración del gasto de las empresas en el cuarto trimestre.

El Departamento de Comercio dijo el jueves que los pedidos de bienes de capital fuera del sector de defensa y excluyendo aeronaves, un indicador muy observado por analistas sobre planes de gastos de las empresas, cayeron un 1,2 por ciento luego de tres meses consecutivos de fuertes ganancias.

Economistas consultados en un sondeo de Reuters proyectaban que los pedidos de bienes de capital subyacentes subieran un 0,3 por ciento el mes pasado desde un 0,9 por ciento reportado inicialmente para agosto. El dato de agosto fue revisado al alza a un 1,2 por ciento.

Los pedidos generales de bienes duraderos, ítems que van desde tostadoras hasta aviones y son fabricados para durar tres años o más, bajaron un 0,1 por ciento el mes pasado, presionados por una caída de 0,8 por ciento en la demanda por equipamiento de transporte.

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18214.40 15.07 0.08%
Nasdaq 5233.21 -17.05 -0.32%
S&P 500 2139.22 -0.21 -0.01%
Russell 2000 1194.62 -10.13 -0.84%
Global Dow 2447.56 -3.94 -0.16%
Japan: Nikkei 225 17336.42 -55.42 -0.32%
Stoxx Europe 600 341.71 -0.05 -0.01%
UK: FTSE 100 6986.57 28.48 0.41%
CURRENCIES2:24 PM EDT 10/27/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0902 -0.0007
Yen (USD/JPY) 105.25 0.77
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2175 -0.0071
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7594 -0.0057
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9933 -0.0001
WSJ Dollar Index 88.94 0.34
GOVERNMENT BONDS2:24 PM EDT 10/27/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -15/32 1.847
German 10 Year -26/32 0.172
Japan 10 Year -4/32 -0.049
FUTURES2:14 PM EDT 10/27/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 49.86 0.68 1.38%
Brent Crude 50.64 0.66 1.32%
Gold 1271.0 4.4 0.35%
Silver 17.660 0.034 0.19%
E-mini DJIA 18142 14 0.08%
E-mini S&P 500 2134.50

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A.Saudita y pares del Golfo en OPEP están dispuestos a recortar producción crudo en 4 pct: fuentes

DUBAI (Reuters) - Arabia Saudita y sus aliados del Golfo Pérsico en la OPEP están dispuestos a recortar su producción de petróleo en un 4 por ciento desde sus niveles máximos registrados, dijeron los ministros de Energía de la región a su contraparte ruso esta semana, informaron a Reuters fuentes cercanas al tema.

La oferta fue presentada en una reunión a puertas cerradas en Riad, donde los ministros se reunieron el domingo. Sin embargo, el ministro de Energía de Rusia, Alexander Novak, dijo a los funcionarios que Moscú no reducirá su producción, sino que la congelará en sus actuales niveles, según las fuentes.

La propuesta de un recorte de 4 por ciento probablemente será presentada en una reunión de la OPEP y países productores como Rusia prevista para el 28 y 29 de octubre en Viena, a fin de definir los detalles de un compromiso alcanzado el mes pasado en Argelia destinado a apuntalar los precios del petróleo.

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S&P 500 y Dow Jones suben en Wall St; Nasdaq cae presionado por acciones de Comcast

Por Yashaswini Swamynathan

(Reuters) - Las acciones estadounidenses operaban con una tendencia dispar el viernes, ya que el índice Nasdaq caía mientras que el S&P 500 y el Dow Jones cotizaban de nuevo en terreno positivo, luego de que los papeles del sector de salud compensaran por la baja de los títulos de empresas del sector de consumo discrecional.

* El índice del sector de salud de S&P 500 subía 1,15 por ciento y se encaminaba a cerrar su mejor jornada en seis semanas, apoyado en los títulos de Bristol-Myers y Celgene. Las dos compañías proveían un importante soporte al S&P 500.

* Las ganancias de las compañías que integran el S&P 500 han excedido en buena parte las estimaciones de los analistas en lo que va del trimestre, lo que las posiciona para anotar el primer aumento de utilidades desde el segundo trimestre de 2015.

* A las 12.30 hora local (1630 GMT), el promedio industrial Dow Jones subía 22,53 puntos, o 0,12 por ciento, a 18.221,86 unidades; mientras que el S&P 500 sumaba 0,72 puntos, o 0,03 por ciento, a 2.140,15 unidades; y el índice Nasdaq descendía 10,80 puntos, o 0,21 por ciento, a 5.239,47 puntos.

* El mayor lastre para el S&P 500 y el Nasdaq eran las acciones de Comcast, que perdían 2,3 por ciento, luego de recortes de recomendaciones a los precios de sus valores aplicados por Barclays y Deutsche Bank.

* Comcast, junto con Ford, cuya ganancia neta bajó más de un 50 por ciento en el último trimestre, eran los principales responsables por la tendencia bajista del índice de consumo discrecional, que retrocedía un 0,6 por ciento.

* En tanto, el sector industrial bajaba un 0,71 por ciento, arrastrado por los títulos de Boeing, que habían subido con fuerza el miércoles, y por los valores de General Electric.

* Las acciones de la matriz de Google, Alphabet, perdían un 0,4 por ciento, mientras que los valores del minorista en internet Amazon.com subían 0,3 por ciento. Las dos compañías tienen previsto reportar sus resultados poco después del cierre de los mercados del jueves.

(Reporte de Yashaswini Swamynathan en Bengaluru. Editado en español por Marion Giraldo)

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Qualcomm comprará NXP Semiconductors por unos 47.000 mln dlr, incluyendo deuda

Por Narottam Medhora y Supantha Mukherjee

(Reuters) - Qualcomm Inc acordó la compra de NXP Semiconductors NV por unos 47.000 millones de dólares, incluyendo deuda, en la mayor operación jamás registrada en la industria de semiconductores que ayudará a la compañía californiana a consolidarse en las ventas de sus microchips al sector automotor.

El acuerdo convertirá a Qualcomm, que provee de microchips a fabricantes de teléfonos avanzados con sistema operativo Android y a Apple Inc, en el mayor proveedor de microchips de la industria automotriz y colaborará en reducir su dependencia del mercado de móviles inteligentes.

Qualcomm, con sede en San Diego, California, y que obtiene la mayor parte de sus utilidades de patentes inalámbricas que concede a la industria de telefonía móvil, ha visto una desaceleración de sus ventas en el mercado de teléfonos avanzados y una fuerte competencia de rivales chinos y taiwaneses.

El valor en acciones de la oferta de Qualcomm es de 37.880 millones de dólares, según cálculos de Reuters basados en las 344,4 millones de acciones diluidas de la compañía al 2 de octubre. Incluyendo deuda, la operación llega a cerca de 47.000 millones de dólares, dijeron las compañías.

Se prevé que la entidad combinada generará ingresos anuales de más de 30.000 millones de dólares.

Qualcomm dijo que ofrecerá 110 dólares por acción en efectivo, una prima de 11,5 por ciento respecto al precio de cierre del miércoles de los títulos de NXP Semiconductors.

NXP, con sede en Eindhoven, Holanda, se convirtió en el mayor fabricante mundial de productos electrónicos para autos luego de adquirir a Freescale Semiconductor por unos 12.000 millones de dólares en diciembre pasado.

A las 1500 GMT, las acciones de Qualcomm subían un 3,1 por ciento, a 71,33 dólares; mientras que las de NXP ganaban un 1,44 por ciento, a 100,09 dólares.

Goldman Sachs y Evercore fueron los asesores financieros de Qualcomm, mientras que Qatalyst Partners, Barclays y Credit fueron los consejeros financieros de NXP.

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Deutsche Bank prevé tiempos difíciles mientras resuelve caso multimillonario con EEUU

Por Arno Schuetze y Anjuli Davies

FRÁNCFORT (Reuters) - El presidente ejecutivo de Deutsche Bank, John Cryan, se comprometió el jueves a redoblar esfuerzos de reestructuración y advirtió que el banco alemán enfrentará tiempos difíciles en un futuro cercano mientras intenta llegar a un acuerdo con las autoridades estadounidenses sobre una multimillonaria multa.

El mayor prestamista de Alemania reportó previamente en el día una inesperada ganancia trimestral, al beneficiarse de un modesto repunte de su negocio de intermediación, aunque no logró dispersar la incertidumbre que ha llevado a sus clientes a retirar miles de millones de euros.

Cryan dijo en conferencia telefónica que el trimestre había sido opacado por las discusiones sobre la propuesta de acuerdo extrajudicial del Departamento de Justicia de Estados Unidos para resolver un caso por ventas engañosas de activos respaldados por hipotecas, una situación que había generado inquietud.

Además de impactar las percepciones de inversores y clientes sobre el banco, la incertidumbre también afectó la "ejecución de estrategias y planificación financiera", sostuvo Cryan. El ejecutivo añadió en una carta a los empleados que "la situación será difícil por un tiempo" y que trabajaba para finalizar el acuerdo con Estados Unidos "lo más pronto posible".

Pero a pesar de semanas de noticias negativas, Deutsche Bank pudo anunciar una inesperada ganancia neta de 278 millones de euros (303 millones de dólares) en el tercer trimestre, ayudado por una mejoría en las operaciones de intermediación que han estado impulsando las cifras de todos los bancos de Wall Street.

El reporte provocó un alza de las acciones de la compañía a máximos de un mes, aunque los papeles terminaron la sesión con un avance marginal de 0,08 por ciento.

El banco ha apartado más dinero para responder a casos legales por malas prácticas del pasado. Sus provisiones para litigios aumentaron a 5.900 millones de euros, desde 5.500 millones de euros a finales de junio.

Los ingresos de la firma alemana aumentaron ligeramente a 7.500 millones de euros en el tercer trimestre, por encima de las expectativas de los analistas, mayormente apuntalados por los negocios de intermediación, aunque otras áreas operativas se mostraron débiles en el trimestre.

(1 dólar = 0,9038 euros)

(Reporte adicional de Kathrin Jones; escrito por John O'Donnell. Editado en español por Carlos Aliaga y Marion Giraldo)

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Bonds Fall, Dollar Rises as Traders Mull Waning Stimulus; Oil Up

Rita Nazareth Yun Li October 26, 2016 — 7:21 PM EDT Updated on October 27, 2016 — 1:46 PM EDT
This month’s selloff in global bonds deepened amid speculation that major central banks may be moving closer to scaling back their extraordinary stimulus measures. Oil climbed with the dollar.

The debt rout was led by U.K. gilts after data showing economic expansion left traders betting on virtually no chance of lower interest rates through the end of 2017. Treasuries tumbled and the dollar rose to a seven-month high amid increasing wagers the Federal Reserve will boost borrowing costs in December. Stocks fluctuated on mixed earnings, while oil approached $50 a barrel.


Traders sent bonds toward their worst month since 2014 on speculation the global economy is becoming strong enough to withstand a shift away from ultra-easy policies. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that while he doesn’t see an immediate need to alter rates, longer-term yields may rise. The latest U.K. expansion marked a 15th quarter of growth, while a report Friday is forecast to show a notable pickup in U.S. activity after a sluggish first half.

“This is a combination of better economic growth and changing expectations for monetary policies going forward," said Gary Pollack, who manages $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York.

The market is pricing in a 73 percent probability of tighter Fed policy by year-end, up from a 68 percent chance seen a week ago, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. Traders now only see a 19 percent change of an interest-rate hike in the November meeting, about a week before the U.S. presidential election.

Bonds

The Treasury 10-year note yield rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 1.86 percent at 1:46 p.m. in New York, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader data. That’s way above the median forecast of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg for 1.75 percent by Dec. 31.

"People are starting to look at interest rates and where they are, and they are getting a little nervous," said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasury trading in New York at Bank of Nova Scotia, one of 23 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. "What you are seeing is what you haven’t seen in some time -- lower pricing is attracting selling."

A $28 billion seven-year U.S. note auction Thursday drew a yield of 1.653 percent. Direct bidders, non-primary-dealer investors that place bids with the Treasury, took the highest share since May.

U.K. 10-year gilt yields climbed to the highest level since June. Euro-area bonds were also caught up in the selloff despite bets the European Central Bank will extend its asset-purchase program this year. The yield on German 10-year bunds, the region’s benchmark sovereign securities, climbed to the highest level in almost five months.

Meanwhile, Russian bonds declined as a surge in a gauge of inflation expectations suggested the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for longer.

A deluge of debt offerings from governments and companies also weighed on fixed-income markets. Global corporate bond sales have already topped $41 billion this week as investors seek refuge from more than $10 trillion of negative-yielding debt created by easy-money policies in Japan and Europe.

Global bonds have left investors with a 2.5 percent loss so far this month, according to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the U.S. currency’s performance against a basket of 10 major counterparts, rose 0.3 percent. The greenback appreciated against all but two of its 16 major peers. It climbed 0.8 percent to 105.29 yen, reaching the strongest level since July, and advanced 0.1 percent to $1.0894 per euro.


The Fed’s trade-weighted dollar index is approaching the strongest level since January. That was when the currency reached a 12-year high and forced policy makers to raise rates more slowly than they had originally forecast. This time may be different: With its gradual rise, the greenback hasn’t led to a deflationary oil-market rout or tantrum in equity markets that led the central bank to rethink its tightening path.

Elsewhere in the world, Norway’s krone rallied after the nation’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged after scrapping plans for more stimulus. Meanwhile, Sweden’s krona tumbled after policy makers signaled they’re ready to extend bond purchases into next year. The Mexican peso trailed most of its peers as some polls ahead of the U.S. presidential election showed Hillary Clinton’s advantage narrowing over Donald Trump.

Stocks

MSCI’s global gauge of stocks retreated 0.2 percent, extending its worst monthly drop since January.

The S&P 500 Index was little changed at 2,140.15. Optimism on better-than-forecast profits from companies including Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and Dow Chemical Co. was tempered by declines in United Parcel Service Inc. and Simon Property Group Inc. after their reports. Ford Motor Co. lost 1.5 percent after its quarterly profit fell by more than half.

“It seems to me that we’re probably in a holding pattern in equities,” said Mark Heppenstall, the Horsham, Pennsylvania-based chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, which oversees about $20 billion. “Earnings -- some disappointments, some beating expectations, but nothing to get positive momentum.”

Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Wynn Resorts Ltd. are among more than 60 S&P 500 companies announcing results on Thursday. While earnings at companies that have reported so far have generally beaten projections, analysts still expect a slight contraction for the quarter, before a 13 percent rebound next year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Earnings updates from ABB Ltd. to Telefonica SA gave investors mixed signals on the outlook for corporate health, leaving European stocks little changed.

Commodities

Oil climbed as much as 1.8 percent in New York. Reuters reported Saudi Arabia and its Gulf OPEC allies are willing to cut 4 percent from their peak oil output, citing sources familiar with the matter. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo urged members to show “maximum flexibility” to agree on output cuts, after saying Tuesday the group is facing its “hardest” challenge.

“There is a report that the Saudis and their Gulf compatriots are willing to cut output by 4 percent,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy, said by telephone. “Whether that’s enough or not, we’ll see. There’s increasing amounts of skepticism in this market, which is keeping prices near these multi-week lows.”

West Texas Intermediate for December delivery advanced 1.6 percent to $49.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for December settlement increased 1.5 percent to $50.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold traded in a narrow range this week as traders looked for U.S. data to give further clues about the strength of the economy and likelihood of tighter policy from the Fed.

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Apple Unveils New Macs, TV App

Macs include touch screen on keyboard, while app helps organize TV watching

By Robert McMillan Updated Oct. 27, 2016 2:13 p.m. ET
Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks during the company’s event Thursday. ENLARGE
Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks during the company’s event Thursday. Photo: Bloomberg News

Apple Inc. introduced new versions of its Macintosh personal computers Thursday, betting that smaller, thinner models and a touch screen on the keyboard will reverse declining sales.

At an event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters, Apple unveiled new versions of its MacBook Pro laptops. The new models include Apple’s TouchID fingerprint reader, which has been included on its iPhones since 2013. The new models also replaced the so-called function keys at the top of the keyboard with a new screen called Touch Bar that will offer different functions as different software is used.

The new machines marked the first major upgrades of some Mac computers in several years. As the product line aged, Mac sales have fallen. In Apple’s recently completed fiscal year, Mac sales totaled $22.8 billion, down 10.4% from a year earlier.

Ahead of the Mac presentation, Apple unveiled a new video app that allows users to access and watch shows and movies from multiple apps on Apple TV, iPhone and iPad.

The app, called TV, helps users keep track of what programs they are watching and find the next show in that series. In addition, Apple showed off a feature that allows users to use its voice-controlled assistant Siri to find live news and sporting events across their apps.

The TV app will be available in December as free software updates for Apple TV, iPhone and iPad customers in the U.S. Live tune-in with Siri is available today, Apple said.

Meanwhile, Macs have been losing ground to other personal computers. Market researcher Gartner Inc. said Mac unit shipments declined 11.3% in the second quarter, compared with a 5.1% decline for the rest of the market. The decline in Mac sales accelerated in the third quarter, falling 17%, Apple said Tuesday.

Analysts said Apple needed to give consumers reasons to upgrade their machines. “Apple’s available market is pretty much saturated,” said Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa. She noted that Macs generally cost more than other PCs. “Apple is not for everybody.”

Introduced in 1984, the Macintosh was the defining product of the company that Apple founders Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak built. Over the past nine years, however, it has been eclipsed by the iPhone, which now accounts for 63% of the company’s revenue. In 2007, the former Apple Computer Inc. dropped the word “computer” from its name.

The Macintosh made up just 12% of Apple’s revenue during its most recent quarter. Still, if it were a separate company, it would rank 124th on the Fortune 500 list, bigger than such stalwarts as Starbucks Corp. Southwest Airlines Co. or Eli Lilly & Co.

—George Stahl contributed to this article.

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Amazon Posts Smaller-Than-Expected Increase in Profit

E-commerce giant’s shares fall nearly 5% after hours as holiday outlook also disappoints

By Laura Stevens Updated Oct. 27, 2016 4:55 p.m. ET
Amazon is targeting new growth markets like fashion and beauty, where analysts expect quick gains due to its relatively small market share. ENLARGE
Amazon is targeting new growth markets like fashion and beauty, where analysts expect quick gains due to its relatively small market share. Photo: Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Amazon.com Inc. posted a smaller-than-expected increase in third-quarter profit as shipping costs surged and the e-commerce company pumped revenue gains back into product development and operations.

Its shares fell 4.8% in after-hours trading as the midpoint of the company’s outlook for the holiday quarter also fell short of expectations.

Amazon logged its sixth consecutive quarter of profits after seesawing in and out of the black—while reporting hefty sales increases—since its stock market listing nearly 20 years ago. In the third quarter, its sales of $32.7 billion were nearly eclipsed by total operating expenses that climbed 29% to $32.1 billion.

Shipping costs rose 43% to $3.9 billion. The retail giant has started laying the groundwork for its own shipping business to add more delivery capacity for the holidays, with the grander ambition of one day hauling and delivering packages for itself, other retailers and consumers.

Some of Amazon’s big investments helped guide it toward its current profitability, such as its popular Echo speaker device and its highly automated warehouses and logistics network. Amazon is also targeting new growth markets like fashion and beauty, where analysts expect quick gains due to its relatively small market share.

In all, its earnings rose to $252 million, or 52 cents a share, from $79 million, or 17 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 78 cents a share.

Its sales of $32.7 billion, up from $25.36 billion, were within Amazon’s own forecast of $31 billion to $33.5 billion.

It issued revenue guidance of $42 billion to $45.5 billion for the fourth quarter, when holiday sales—and its ability to deliver those orders on time—are critical to Amazon’s success. Analysts were looking for $44.6 billion.

The Seattle-based online retailer’s profits were boosted by its Amazon Web Services cloud computing division, which increased sales by 55% to $3.23 billion. The unit, which rents computing power to a variety of startups, government agencies and other corporations, has become a major factor in leading the company to its sixth straight quarter in the black.

Chief Executive Jeff Bezos has said he expects AWS to reach $10 billion in sales this year, even as competitors including Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. ramp up competitive pressure in the space.

Write to Laura Stevens at laura.stevens@wsj.com

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Google Strength Drives Alphabet Profit Higher

Tech giant’s shares rise after hours following quarterly earnings report

By Jack Nicas Updated Oct. 27, 2016 4:33 p.m. ET
Google's headquarters in Mountain View, Calif. Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, reported financial results Thursday. ENLARGE
Google's headquarters in Mountain View, Calif. Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, reported financial results Thursday. Photo: Associated Press

Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported rising third-quarter profit Thursday, extending a streak of strength as users spend more time on smartphones and advertisers spend more to reach them there.

Alphabet said net income rose 27% to $5.06 billion, or $7.25 a share, from $3.98 billion, or $5.73 a share, in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding certain expenses, Alphabet said it would have earned $9.06 a share, beating analysts’ estimates of $8.62 a share, according to FactSet.

Alphabet revenue, driven almost entirely by its advertising business, rose 20% to $22.45 billion. Factoring out payments to advertising partners, total revenue was $18.27 billion.

Shares of the company rose 1.5% to $806.95 after hours.

Alphabet—the world’s No. 2 company by market value, after Apple Inc.— continues to grow at a steady clip on the back of the mobile revolution. Users are accessing the internet more because they carry computers almost everywhere they go. That shift to mobile boosts Google’s business in other ways, too.

The company controls 95% of the mobile-search market, compared with 78% on personal computers, according to digital-marketing firm Merkle Inc., largely because it is the default search engine on both iPhones and Android devices. Mobile users also click on search ads at a higher rate than desktop users, Merkle said, in part because mobile ads take up virtually the entire screen for some searches. Some analysts now estimate more than half of Alphabet’s revenue come from ads on mobile devices.

The rise of smartphones also poses challenges to Google. Mobile ads are generally cheaper than desktop ads, so advertisers’ average price for an ad click has declined as mobile ads have increased. Google said Thursday that advertisers’ cost per click decreased 11%, compared with 7% in the second quarter.

Alphabet shares have risen just 5.1% this year through Thursday’s close, lagging rivals Facebook Inc. and Apple. Facebook, in particular, is proving a tough competitor for digital ads; its profits nearly tripled to $2.1 billion in the second quarter, with 84% of its $6.2 billion in ad revenue coming from mobile. Facebook reports third-quarter earnings next week.

There has also been tumult outside of Alphabet’s core Google business, in the company’s “other bets.” On Tuesday, the head of Alphabet’s high-speed internet business, Google Fiber, stepped down as the service said it would lay off 9% of staff and suspended plans in 11 cities. Top executives have also recently departed from Alphabet’s home-automation firm Nest and projects to build self-driving cars, delivery drones and internet-beaming balloons.

Some of the shake-up comes amid a stronger focus on financials from Alphabet Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat, who joined the company in May 2015 from Morgan Stanley. Alphabet executives have said she is leading an effort to rein in costs.

Analysts look for signs of Ms. Porat’s presence on the financial results of the “other bets,” which consistently lose money as they spend heavily to try to invent new technologies or gain traction in new markets. Other bets’ revenue increased to $197 million from $141 million a year ago, and the operating loss narrowed to $865 million from $980 million.

Google’s business of hosting other companies’ businesses on its computers, known as the cloud, is fueling growth outside of Google’s advertising business. Non-advertising revenue increased 39% to $2.43 billion over a year prior; in recent quarters, executives have attributed growth in Alphabet’s non-advertising revenue largely to the cloud business. Google is hoping to continue to diversify from being a pure advertising business by investing heavily in the cloud and developing new hardware to sell, such as a new line of Google smartphones it unveiled earlier this month.

Write to Jack Nicas at jack.nicas@wsj.com

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Selling Sweeps Global Government Bonds, Pushing U.S. 10-Year Yield Above 1.8%

Better-than-expected U.K. economic growth and Bank of Japan governor's comments drive investors

By Min Zeng Updated Oct. 27, 2016 3:54 p.m. ET
The weekslong selloff in global government bonds gained momentum on Thursday, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to its highest in nearly five months.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note settled at 1.843%, up from 1.79% on Wednesday. Yields rise as bond prices fall.

Some traders say the yield could retest the 2% mark again if the higher yield momentum intensifies. The most-recent time the yield traded above 2% was in March. Some investors say yields around 2% would be appealing to buy, as they don’t expect yields to rise sharply in a soft-growth world.

Two factors drove investors to shed holdings on Thursday: The pace of economic growth in the U.K. last quarter beat economists’ forecasts, soothing concerns over the fallout from the Brexit vote in late June. And Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said “it would not be strange” for long-term bond yields to rise.

Government bond yields have been climbing, after plunging to historically low levels during the summer, highlighting the market’s vulnerability at a time when their valuations have been stretched. The yield has been up by 0.24 percentage point in October.

The rise in yields reflects diminishing demand on haven bonds as global data have pointed to some improvement in economic growth and an uptick in inflation. But higher yields raise mortgage rates and tighten financial conditions.

In addition, the risk, say analysts, is that if the higher yield momentum accelerates from here, it could rattle riskier assets such as stocks as government bond yields are the benchmark to price valuations of riskier assets.

“The rise in bond yields is healthy for now, but central banks don’t want to see a sharp rise which would hurt the outlook of this unspectacular economic growth,” said Jason Evans, co-founder of hedge fund NineAlpha Capital LP in New York. Mr. Evans said he has wagered on higher yields but has refrained from aggressive bets, citing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election in early November.

The combination of low global growth, subdued inflation and ultraloose monetary policy among major central banks has been sending bond yields to unprecedented levels. Yet over the past few weeks, the narrative has appeared to shift.

Concerns have been growing over less support for the bond market from central banks in Japan and Europe, as their bond buying is reaching their limits. Economists and analysts have started talking about a shift toward fiscal stimulus to combat low growth. Such fiscal action typically raises the supply of government debt for funding and is seen as a negative for long-term government bonds.

“There is increasing chatter about a pivot away from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus,” Bill Irving, portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, which had $2.1 trillion in assets under management at the end of September.

Mr. Irving cautioned that the prospect of heavy fiscal spending might not pan out if the U.S. election leads to a divided government. For the moment, “the market sentiment has clearly shifted [toward higher inflation], and I think this could have some momentum,” he said.

Inflation expectations are rising, also driven by a rally in crude oil prices this month and comments from major central banks to tolerate inflation slightly above their desired targets.

The 10-year break-even rate, or the yield premium investors demand to hold a 10-year Treasury note relative to the 10-year Treasury inflation protected security, reached 1.73 percentage point on Thursday, the highest level of the year. It has been rising from a recent low of 1.36 percentage point in June.

The current level suggests investors expect a U.S. inflation rate of 1.73% on average over the next 10 years. Some analysts say the break-even rate has room to rise toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Inflation chips away at the fixed returns on bonds and is the main threat to long-term government bonds. Investors have been selling Treasurys to buy TIPS this month, suggesting growing demand for inflation protection.

The selling in global government bonds this month underscores the risk that bondholders may be prone to abrupt and large capital losses if investors exit holdings in droves at the same time.

Still, yields remain at very low levels. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen from its record close low of 1.366% made in July, but it traded at 2.273% at the end of 2015.

Many investors are still hesitant to declare that the superlong cycle of low yields has ended. The 10-year yield has been falling since hitting a record high of around 18% in 1981.

“The ultralow yield cycle may be nearing an end, but yields should not be able to rise sustainably” given the aging demographic, still subpar economic growth and the Fed’s shallow path in raising rates, said Christopher Sullivan, who oversees $2.3 billion as chief investment officer at the United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York. “I think yields around or approaching 2% should be bought,” he said.

Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@wsj.com

[Fenix]

¿Los mejores gestores de los últimos años serán los mejores en los próximos?
por Moisés Romero
El primer gestor automatizado de inversiones en España autorizado por la CNMV, presentaba recientemente un completo estudio sobre Rentabilidad de los fondos de inversión en España 2005-2015, que concluía que la gestión indexada ofrece una rentabilidad entre dos y cinco veces superior a la gestión activa. El estudio presentado concluía que el 88,3% de los fondos de inversión españoles no batía a su índice de referencia a diez años. Esto significa que el 11,7% de los fondos sí batieron a su índice de referencia en esta década. Por tanto, la pregunta que muchos se hacen es si es posible acertar en la selección de los gestores o de los fondos para ser capaz de elegir los mejores, los pocos que consiguen batir a su índice a 10 años. Para hacer esta selección, lo habitual es basarse en la rentabilidad histórica de los gestores (track record). Los inversores infieren que los mejores gestores en los últimos años probablemente serán los mejores también en los próximos años. Gracias a la nota de investigación “Falta de persistencia en la rentabilidad de los fondos de inversión españoles (2006-2015)” Indexa puede responder con claridad, y con datos, a esta cuestión.

LA PERSISTENCIA DE LA RENTABILIDAD NO ES POSITIVA

Para realizar un análisis completo de persistencia de la rentabilidad de los fondos españoles (fondos registrados en España) Indexa se ha basado en los datos de Inverco y Morningstar y se han estudiado los 4.675 fondos de inversión españoles que se han comercializado entre 2006 y 2015. De estos fondos se han seleccionado los 911 fondos que han estado activos todo el periodo analizado.



Imagen

Para estos fondos se ha analizado si aquellos que obtuvieron una mejor rentabilidad en los cinco primeros años de este periodo (2006-2010), también la obtuvieron en los cinco siguientes (2011-2015). En este caso, la relación es negativa, es decir, a mayor rentabilidad en los cinco primeros años, peor rentabilidad en los cinco siguientes. La muestra estadística es significativa con un intervalo de confianza del 95%, por lo que se puede concluir que en los fondos españoles la persistencia de la rentabilidad es negativa.

Si a la hora de seleccionar un fondo de inversión en 2011 se hubiera utilizado como guía los resultados de los anteriores cinco años habríamos obtenido peor resultado que haciéndolo de forma aleatoria. De media, los mejores fondos de 2006 y 2010 han obtenido peores resultados entre 2011 y 2015.

Otro dato relevante es que de los 911 fondos españoles que han existido durante todo el periodo entre 2006 y 2015, menos de 2% (16 fondos, ver tabla abajo) han conseguido batir a su índice en los primeros cinco años y en los siguientes cinco años.

Imagen

CONCLUSIONES

Unai Ansejo, Fundador y CEO de Indexa Capital, y coautor de la nota de investigación presentada hoy concluye “A la luz de la rentabilidad de los fondos de inversión españoles de 2006 a 2015: la estrategia de elegir los gestores ganadores en el pasado con el objetivo de obtener una mayor rentabilidad en el futuro parece menos adecuada que la de elegir directamente fondos de gestión indexada que te aseguran una rentabilidad muy cercana al índice, y muy superior a la media de los fondos de gestión activa.”

[Fenix]

¿Nos acercamos al tapering del BCE? ¿Qué acciones se verían perjudicadas?
por Ismael de la Cruz
Estamos en un momento decisivo en el que los inversores están muy atentos a si el BCE prorroga el programa QE o bien opta por el tapering (desmantelamiento progresivo). Tema importante, ya que los mercados reaccionarán de manera diferente según el caso. Vamos a explicar todas estas cuestiones.

La QE (quantitative easing) o flexibilización cuantitativa, es un programa o medida que consiste en generar dinero y ponerlo en circulación, la frase famosa de imprimir más billetes y darle a la maquinita.

La QE tiene dos objetivos:

– Bajar los tipos de interés: se usan las reservas para comprar bonos gubernamentales (deuda pública) y bonos de empresas. Con esta medida, lo que se pretende es que la rentabilidad de los bonos baje. Al haber mayor demanda para los bonos su precio sube, y por lo tanto su rentabilidad bajará. Este hecho provoca que los tipos de interés también bajen, reduciéndose el coste de los créditos.

– Crear liquidez para facilitar el crédito a familias y empresas: con la compra masiva de bonos públicos y de empresas, los bancos aumentan sus reservas de liquidez, con lo que estarían en disposición de conceder créditos a tipos reducidos, a familias y empresas.

En definitiva, con el QE, los bancos centrales crean dinero y lo usan para comprar determinados activos financieros como deuda pública a instituciones financieras, de esta manera, los bancos utilizan ese dinero que han recibido del Banco Central para aumentar los préstamos o para comprar nueva emisiones de deuda al gobierno. En resumen, el QE consiste en inyectar liquidez al sistema a través de los bancos.

También se suele utilizar para luchar contra la deflación en economías con tipos de interés muy cercanos al 0%. Tengan en cuenta que es la última bala en la recámara cuando la política de tipos de interés se ha agotado.



Una de las ideas que tenía el Banco Central Europeo era que con el QE, al ser una medida que supone una inyección de liquidez en el mercado, debilitase al euro, haciendo más baratas y competitivas las exportaciones europeas.

¿Cómo reaccionan los mercados? Pues la renta variable del país en cuestión sube al alza y la divisa de dicho país baja.

Antes que el BCE, fue la Fed quien llevó a cabo su propio programa QE en el 2008 (QE1, QE2 o QE3 según la ronda en que se encontrara). Esta expansión monetaria, en el caso de la Fed, estaba dirigida a lograr una tasa de paro más baja. en el caso del BCE, el objetivo es la inflación.

Bien, hasta aquí hemos visto un poquito qué es el QE, la finalidad que tiene y cómo afecta a los mercados. Vamos a profundizar un poquito más en todo este asunto.

El BCE compró títulos de deuda pública y privada (sobre todo pública), principalmente bonos emitidos por Gobiernos o por instituciones públicas de la eurozona con un vencimiento prefijado de antemano. Las adquisiciones no se llevaban a cabo en las subastas de los tesoros de cada país, sino en el mercado secundario, donde inversores compran y venden títulos ya emitidos en su día por los Estados.

El QE ha supuesto para las Bolsas un bálsamo de aceite, toda una red de seguridad, alentando las compras en renta variable. Pero las cosas, tarde o temprano, tienen su final y es peligroso que el mercado se haya acostumbrado a recibir respiración asistida, puesto que cuando sea retirada, como no se proceda de manera pausada y muy controlada, los efectos colaterales no muy halagüeños.

La finalización del QE está prevista para marzo del 2017, aunque es opinión casi unánime que se terminará por ampliar el plazo. El propio Mario Draghi comentó en su momento que si el objetivo de inflación no se consigue (2%), los estímulos pueden prolongarse más allá de la fecha prevista para el fin del programa.

Todo esto nos lleva a hablar del tapering, que no es otra cosa sino la reducción en la compra de bonos de deuda en la economía, pero de una manera escalonada para evitar un efecto negativo.

Y claro, la pregunta es obligada. ¿Qué compañías cotizadas se verían, en principio, afectadas negativamente cuando se anuncie el tapering?

La lista podría ser la siguiente: Red Eléctrica, Enagás, Ferrovial, Abertis, Endesa, Iberdrola, Gas Natural, Cellnex.

De todas maneras, insisto, en principio todavía no se va a anunciar un tapering, estamos más cerca de una prórroga del programa QE que de la retirada progresiva del mismo, pero conviene tener presente todo lo expuesto para cuando llegue el momento.

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