Lunes 11/08/10 La deuda global $10.2 trillones

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Eventos economicos

Lunes

Ventas de bonos

Entre los mas importantes de la semana tenemos la balanza comercial, los precios de los importadores y exportadores el Miercoles y el Viernes la confianza del consumidor, el Balance del Fed y el money supply.

4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:30 AM ET


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Weekly Bill Settlement


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


International Trade
8:30 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


52-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET


Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET

US Holiday: Veterans Day

Stocks and Futures Markets Open


Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

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Estamos a la misma hora.

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Reportan utilidades los retailers y Cisco Systems. Cambio de hora en Norteamerica. El Jueves el mercado de bonos estara cerrado por el Dia de los Veteranos.

Cisco reporta el Miercoles, se espera que reporte muy buenas ventas. Disney reporta el Jueves y mostrara una pequenia mejoria.

La balanza comercial tendra pocos cambios.

Bernanke hablara el Sabado.

On Deck Next Week: Cisco Earnings, Trade Data

By Kathy Shwiff

Major retailers, more media giants and networking-gear maker Cisco Systems are among the companies that will post quarterly results next week. Countries in North America will turn back their clocks one hour Sunday as they leave daylight saving time. Stock markets will be open but bond markets and government offices will close Thursday for the Veterans Day holiday.

Cisco and media and entertainment giant Walt Disney, both components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and more than a dozen other companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, will report quarterly results next week. Cisco, which reports Wednesday, is expected to post a sharp gain in sales as analysts note signs that the tech giant managed to regain its footing in an unpredictable market after a shaky start to the quarter.

Disney, which reports Thursday, is likely to show a slight improvement in revenue with earnings down a bit as it benefits from strong international box-office and consumer-products sales for “Toy Story 3.” Disney’s prior-year quarter included an extra week, which could hurt theme-park comparisons.

Also posting results next week are department-store operators Macy’s on Wednesday, Kohl’s Corp. Thursday and J.C. Penney Co. Friday.

The U.S. trade deficit for September, to be released Wednesday, likely changed little from a month earlier, according to a poll of economists by Briefing.com. The deficit widened to $46.3 billion in August as import demand remained strong despite a weaker dollar. The government also will report on September wholesale inventories Tuesday. Next Friday, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will issue its preliminary reading for November.

Among appearances by Federal Reserve officials, Chairman Ben Bernanke and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speak Saturday in Jekyll Island, Ga.; Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks Monday in San Antonio, Texas; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks Monday in New York; and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks Thursday in Atlanta.
Federal officials, regulators and leaders of major banks will be featured speakers at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s annual meeting Monday in New York. U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Conn.), Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Schapiro, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair, Morgan Stanley President and Chief Executive James Gorman and others will discuss financial regulatory reform legislation, capital requirements and market structure.

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Cobre: fundamentos estelares

El Dr. cobre ha lucido muy bien ultimamente. El metal industrial de mucho uso - a quien los observadores del mercado le han dado un doctorado honorario gracias a su habilidad para anticipar los movimientos de la economia - subio otro 1% el Viernes.

Inclusive antes de que Bernanke hablara de la posibilidad del otro QE2 el 6 de Agosto, el cobre ya habia empezado a subir. Es mas, el aumento ya era solido alrededor del 20 de Julio.

Desde el 20 de Julio, el cobre ha subido 34% y ha subido mas que su primo, el oro, que ha saltado 18% desde entonces.

Yo he estado diciendo que hay un bubble en el oro (MarketBeat), esencialmente es un metal amarillo que brilla y no sirve para nada, excepto su uso minimo en joyeria. Entre los ETF y los que pregonan la hiperinflacion que lo recomiendan, nosotros tememos que ya haya subido demasiado.

De todas maneras, nosotros nos sentimos mejor con el cobre, que actualmente tiene un uso, Uds. saben, desde cables hasta tubos. Y no es un secreto que el precio esta ligado a la demanda China. Ademas, tambien sube cuando el dolar baja.

De todas maneras la caida del dolar no explica la fortaleza del cobre. Durante el periodo en que el precio subio 34%, el dolar solo bajo 7%. Esto hace sospechar que alguien esta comprando el metal. Por supuesto despues de haber subido 34%, deberiamos esperar un enfriamiento en el precio del cobre en algun momento. Pero los analistas de BMO capital markets escribieron el Jueves que cualquier correccion adicional en el precio sera modesto y por un breve periodo de tiempo, especialmente para commodities como el cobre, el cual tiene estelares fundamentos.


Dr. Copper: ‘Stellar Fundamental Underpinnings’

By Matt Phillips

Dr. Copper has been looking pretty good lately. The widely used industrial metal — which market watchers have awarded a honorary doctorate due its ability to anticipate turning points in the economy — is up another 1% Friday.

But Dr. Copper’s run has had legs. Even before Ben Bernanke seemed to raise the prospects for QE2 on Aug. 6 in his speech at Jackson Hole, copper started rallying. In fact, it began a pretty solid upsurge around July 20.

Since July 20, copper is up 34%, outpacing the gains in its barbarous relic of a cousin, gold, which has jumped 18% since then.

We’ve — or at least I have — been calling bubble on gold — or old yeller — for a while here on MarketBeat. Essentially it’s a shiny useless rock. A bit of it is used for jewelry, but with the advent of ETFs and hyperinflationary frothing from members of the market punditocracy, we worry that the yellow metal has been jawboned too high.

At any rate, we’re more comfortable with copper, which is actually used in, you know, stuff like wire and pipes. And it’s no secret that the metal’s price is closely tied to Chinese demand. It’s also moved higher as the dollar has moved lower. (Commodities priced in dollars rise when the greenback weakens.)

Still, the dollar selloff doesn’t explain all of Copper’s strength. During the period when copper prices rose 34%, the dollar declined by only 7%. This makes us suspect that somebody is actually buying this stuff. Of course, after a 34% run, you’d expect some sort of cool off in copper prices at some point. But analysts from BMO capital markets wrote in a note Thursday that “any additional correction should be relatively modest and short lived, particularly for commodities such as copper, which has stellar fundamental underpinnings.”

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El DJ subio 2.9% la semana pasada a 11,444.08, es la mayor alza en porcentaje desde el 03 de Setiembre de este anio.

Esta en su punto mas alto desde Setiembre 08 del 2008.

El Nasdaq ha subido 8.78% en cinco semanas. Esta en su valor mas alto desde el 3 de Enero del 2008.

El S&P 500 esta en su nivel mas alto desde el 19 de Setiembre del 2008

Data Points: U.S. Markets

By MarketBeat Staff
Dow Industrials, up 325.59 points this week, or 2.93% to 11444.08.

Largest weekly percentage gain since Friday, September 03, 2010.
Today, it is up 9.24 points, or 0.08%.
Today’s top contributors to the Dow’s movement and their point contribution: JPM (8.63), XOM (4.69), UTX (3.86), BA (3.18), AA (3.03).
Today’s laggers and their point contribution: MRK (-7.19), KFT (-5.37), MMM (-5.30), HPQ (-2.65), MSFT (-2.19).
Highest closing value since Monday, September 08, 2008.
Nasdaq Composite, up 71.57 points this week, or 2.85% to 2578.98.

Up 208.23 points, or 8.78%, over the last five weeks.
Best week since the week ending Friday, September 17, 2010.
Today, it is up 1.64 points, or 0.06%.
Highest closing value since Thursday, January 03, 2008.
S&P 500, up 42.59 points this week, or 3.60% to 1225.85.

Up 79.61 points, or 6.95%, over the last five weeks.
Largest weekly percentage gain since Friday, September 03, 2010.
Today, it is up 4.79 points, or 0.39%.
Highest closing value since Friday, September 19, 2008.

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El petroleo subio 6.6% esta semana a $86.85, termino tres semanas de caidas.



El oro subio 2.96% esta semana a $1,397.30 y ha subido 26.25% en el anio.

El cobre subio 5.68% esta semana a $3.9440

Data Points: Energy & Metals

By MarketBeat Staff
Nymex crude for December delivery jumped $5.42 per barrel this week, or 6.66% to $86.85.

Snaps a three week losing streak.
Best week since the week ending February 19th.
Today, it is up 36 cents, or 0.42%.
Intraday, it traded as high as $87.22, and as low as $85.96.
Comex gold for November delivery added $40.20 per troy ounce this week, or 2.96% to $1397.30.

Today it gained $14.60, or 1.06%.
Up 26.25% on the year-to-date.
Comex copper for November delivery gained 21.20 cents per pound this week, or 5.68% to $3.9440.

Largest one week dollar and percentage gain since week ending July 23, 2010.
Today it gained 3.75 cents or 0.96%.

[admin]

El numero de la semana: la deuda global $10.2 trillones

Esa es la cantidad que el mundo necesitara prestarse en el 2011

Mientras la deuda de los paises desarrollados sube a niveles no visto desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial, es dificil saber cuanto es demasiado. Pero es facil ver que el riesgo de un problema financiero serio esta creciendo.

El proximo anio, 15 de las naciones desarrolladas, incluyendo US, Japon, Espania y Grecia tendran que financiar $10.2 trillones para pagar los bonos que maduran y los deficits de sus presupuestos, de acuerdo a estimados del IMF. Eso es 7% mas que este anio y es el 27% de su produccion economica combinada.

Aparte de Japon cuya deuda es enorme y el crecimiento de su economia es anemica, US es el caso mas extremo. El proximo anio, US tendra que encontrar $4.2 trillones. Eso es 27.8% de su GDP (PBI) un aumento del 26,5% este anio. En comparacion, Grecia necesita $69 billones o 23.8% de su PBI.

Hasta ahora, con la notable excepcion de Grecia, las naciones desarrolladas no han tenido muchos problemas para encontrar financiamiento. Los inversionistas Japoneses han comprado consistentemente bonos Japoneses a pesar de los pocos intereses (yields) que pagan. Los inversionistas extranjeros siguen comprando los bonos del gobierno americano, el cual sigue siendo la inversion mas segura del mundo.

Pero, hay razones para estar preocupados por el apetito del gobierno para prestarse dinero y empujar al alza los intereses de la deuda o algo peor.

Por ejemplo, los gobiernos estan usando menores flujos de capital internaciona. El total del portafolio interancional es un 3.8% del PBI global en los ultimos 12 meses hasta Junio, comparado con un 9.5% promedio en los ultimso 8 anios antes de la recesion.

Los pases avanzados esta poniendo presion en China para permita que su moneda se aprecie frente al dolar. Manteniendo todo igual, este movimiento permitiria desiminuir la demanda por deuda denominada en dolares por parte de China que es el pais que tiene mas reservas en bonos americanos en el mundo.

En US, el Fed se ha comprometido a comprar $600 billones de bonos del gobierno en los proximos 8 meses. La demanda de los americanos ha sido muy fuerte y los consumidores estan ahorrando mas. La regulacion mas extricta podria llevar a los bancos americanos a compar mas deuda segura como los bonos del gobierno americano.

Pero como el IMF alerto en su reporte esta semana, las posibilidades de que los inversionistas no compren la deuda de los economias avanzadas es alta, este es un escenario indeseable. No se puede saber a ciencia cierta que tan cerca se esta de esa probabilidad. De todas maneras estamos caminando en la direccion equivocada. Sigue siendo dificil pensar que se produzca una crisis financiera en la que los gobierno no puedan ayudar por que sus finanzas son el problema.



Number of the Week: $10.2 Trillion in Global Borrowing

By Mark Whitehouse
Number of the Week
$10.2
Trillion$10.2 trillion: The amount of money advanced-nation governments will need to borrow in 2011

As the debts of advanced countries rise to levels not seen since the aftermath of World War II, it’s hard to know how much is too much. But it’s easy to see that the risk of serious financial trouble is growing.

Next year, fifteen major developed-country governments, including the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Spain and Greece, will have to raise some $10.2 trillion to repay maturing bonds and finance their budget deficits, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. That’s up 7% from this year, and equals 27% of their combined annual economic output.

Aside from Japan, which has a huge debt hangover from decades of anemic growth, the U.S. is the most extreme case. Next year, the U.S. government will have to find $4.2 trillion. That’s 27.8% of its annual economic output, up from 26.5% this year. By comparison, crisis-addled Greece needs $69 billion, or 23.8% of its annual GDP.

So far, with the notable exception of Greece, major advanced nations haven’t had too much trouble raising the money they need. Japan’s domestic investors have consistently bought its government bonds despite their low yield. Foreign investors have been snapping up U.S. Treasury bonds, which remain the world’s premier safe-haven investment.

Still, there’s reason to be concerned that governments’ appetite for borrowing could ultimately push up interest rates, or worse.

For one, government borrowers are tapping into smaller international capital flows. The total amount of foreign portfolio investment sloshing in across advanced countries’ borders averaged about 3.8% of global GDP in the twelve months ended June, compared to an average 9.5% in the eight years leading up to the recession.

Beyond that, the U.S. and other advanced nations are putting pressure on China to allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar. All else equal, such a move would curb demand for dollar-denominated debt from a country that is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys.

In the U.S., domestic investors could pick up the slack. The Federal Reserve has committed to buy an added $600 billion in U.S. government debt over the next eight months. Demand from households has been very strong as U.S. consumers boost their savings rate. Tighter regulations could push banks to buy more safe assets such as U.S. Treasurys.

But as the IMF warned in a report this week, the chances that investors will balk at lending to governments “remains high for advanced economies.” That’s a highly undesirable outcome — picture a financial crisis in which governments can’t step in to help, because government finances are the problem. We can’t know how close we are to such an outcome, and the need to keep the recovery going would make cutting back now a risky move. Ultimately, though, we’re heading in the wrong direction.

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La economia Chilena crece mas de lo esperado: 6.5%

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AMZN compra Quidsi por $500 millones.

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Los republicanos estan planeando recortar los mayores gastos del gobierno antes de aprobar cualquier aumento de deuda el proximo anio, lo que provocaria el mayor choque entre Obama y el Congreso. Congreso, cues miembros hicieron campania prometiendo reducir el deficit.

Actualmente la deuda es de $13.7 trillones, el limite es $14.3 trillones. Limite que sera alcanzado en Mayo.

El limit en el 2002 era $6 trillones.

Si el l imoite de la deuda no es incrementada US caeria en default.

En los ultimos 20 anios US ga estate cerca de caer en el default.
November 6, 2010
GOP to Use Debt Cap to Push Spending Cuts

By DAMIAN PALETTA

Republicans are planning to demand major spending cuts next year before they would agree to raise the amount of federal debt that can be issued, setting up a clash between the Obama administration and a Congress stocked with lawmakers who campaigned as deficit hawks.

The U.S. can't accrue debt above a certain ceiling set by lawmakers. In the most extreme scenario, the government would default on certain debts if the cap doesn't move.

View Full Image

Associated Press
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, left, and House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio, right, at a news conference Wednesday.

Republican lawmakers, including South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, and congressional aides have said major spending cuts are the primary demand they will make going into the discussions over whether to raise the limit.

It isn't clear whether the White House would agree to significant cuts so quickly, though, and Obama administration officials could try to portray the GOP as playing political blacklisted_site with the country's ability to borrow.

The U.S. currently has $13.7 trillion of debt outstanding, just shy of the $14.3 trillion limit Congress set in February. Barring big changes in federal spending, taxes or the economy, the government is expected to hit the ceiling by May, and administration officials have already said it will have to be raised by then.

"Congress has never failed to increase the debt limit when necessary, and we are confident Congress will act in 2011 to ensure that the full faith and credit of the United States is protected," Treasury Department spokesman Steven Adamske said.

Raising the debt ceiling won't be easy in Washington's new political environment, with dozens of new Republicans elected to Congress on pledges to crack down on spending and shrink the debt. Many tea-party backed candidates, such as Mike Lee, who on Tuesday won a U.S. Senate seat in Utah, have suggested they would vote against raising the debt ceiling.


This tension is likely to be a centerpiece of Democrats' clash with the newly empowered GOP over taxes, spending and deficit-reduction policies. The issue could come up as President Barack Obama meets next week in Asia with other world leaders; some of the biggest investors in U.S. debt are other governments.

Federal debt has grown rapidly during the past decade, in part because of the costs of two wars and a deep recession. In early 2002, the cap was roughly $6 trillion and it has more than doubled since then. In February, the House agreed to increase the ceiling by a 217-212 vote, with all Republicans and 37 Democrats voting against it.

The U.S. has never defaulted on its debt. Economists have argued that doing so would have a destabilizing effect on global markets.

"It would mean essentially our government would become a business that can't pay its bills, and eventually people would stop doing business with it," said Phillip Swagel, a visiting professor at Georgetown University who was a top Treasury official during the George W. Bush administration.

Top Republicans, such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, who is expected to become Speaker of the House, so far haven't disclosed what they might demand from the White House in exchange for delivering the votes to raise the debt ceiling.

"We're discussing various things that might accompany the decision to raise the debt ceiling," Mr. McConnell said in an interview. Mr. Boehner told reporters earlier this week that it was an issue lawmakers would discuss in coming months.


In an interview, Senator Mitch McConnell says President Obama called him twice since Tuesday's election to discuss the way forward. But McConnell insists that Americans voters asked for a course correction and President Obama should listen to them.

President Barack Obama suggested in a news conference this week that he would oppose cuts in areas such as education or research and development.

Several Republicans have said they would push to scrap a procedural move that makes it easier to raise the ceiling without a specific vote. When the administration first asked to raise the ceiling in 2009, Treasury officials drafted backup plans in case lawmakers didn't act quickly enough, people familiar with the matter said.

These options remain available, but it isn't clear how much time they might buy. The administration also could push to raise the ceiling during the lame-duck session of Congress before Republicans take control of the House in January.

The U.S. has come close to defaulting at least three times in the past 20 years, forcing the Treasury to invent ways to temporarily borrow money to cover funding needs.

During the Clinton administration, the government actually hit the debt ceiling during a standoff between Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Mr. Rubin successfully avoided default by borrowing money from at least two federal pension funds.

Eventually, the debt ceiling was raised, but only after a brief government shutdown and warnings from the Clinton administration that the government might temporarily stop mailing Social Security checks.

On separate occasions in 2002 and 2003, the Bush administration avoided hitting the debt ceiling by suspending investments in a pension plan for federal employees, among other things.

Both times, Congress later raised the debt ceiling.

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Yend own 81.27, euro down 1.3941. El dolar volando.

El Hang Seng -0.26%, el Nikkei +1%, El Shanghai C. +0.35%, Korea -0.25%

Los futures del Dow Jones 30 puntos a la baja.

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Oil down 86.88, Au down 1,390

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Copper November 07,21:10
Bid/Ask 3.9472 - 3.9489
Change +0.0217 +0.55%
Low/High 3.9208 - 3.9589
Charts

Nickel November 07,21:10
Bid/Ask 10.9883 - 11.0218
Change +0.0516 +0.47%
Low/High 10.8409 - 11.0433
Charts

Aluminum November 07,21:10
Bid/Ask 1.0914 - 1.0927
Change +0.0018 +0.17%
Low/High 1.0855 - 1.0940
Charts

Zinc November 07,21:10
Bid/Ask 1.1495 - 1.1500
Change +0.0091 +0.80%
Low/High 1.1341 - 1.1500
Charts

Lead November 07,21:10
Bid/Ask 1.1376 - 1.1401
Change -0.0003 -0.03%
Low/High 1.1267 - 1.1402

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Huelga en mina Collahuasi Chile continúa sin señales de acuerdo
domingo 7 de noviembre de 2010 08:45 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] IQUIQUE, Chile (Reuters) - Los trabajadores de la mina de cobre Collahuasi en Chile entraron a su tercer día de huelga contractual sin indicios de un acercamiento entre la firma y su sindicato, mientras un plan de emergencia sigue garantizando las operaciones en el yacimiento.
La protesta fue desatada tras una fallida negociación en la asociación controlada por las gigantes Anglo American y Xstrata.

Sin embargo, hasta el momento los trabajadores no han logrado afectar la producción del yacimiento, que se mantiene operativo por trabajadores de reemplazo que la compañía puede contratar legalmente en medio del conflicto.

"La operación sigue en ritmo normal, el plan de continuidad operacional está siendo aplicado y no hay novedades", reiteró el domingo la portavoz de la firma, Bernardita Fernández.

Algunos expertos consideran que la producción podría empezar a tener algún debilitamiento en el plazo de una semana de paralización.

El gremio ha dicho que el cansancio de los reemplazantes empezaría a tener efecto en el yacimiento, pero la compañía dice contar con suficiente personal para otorgar el descanso necesario por turnos.

En tanto, socios del sindicato permanecen en una escuela abandonada en el centro de la norteña ciudad de Iquique, que ocuparon en la víspera y afirman será su sede mientras se resuelve la disputa.

Las posturas sobre un nuevo contrato no se han acercado, ya que los trabajadores dicen que buscan mejoras en el ingreso real mensual de sus afiliados, mientras la compañía insiste en destacar otros beneficios.

El sindicato ha instado al ministro de Minería, Laurence Golborne, a que se pronuncie sobre el caso.

Collahuasi, el tercer mayor yacimiento mundial de cobre con una producción de 535.000 toneladas anuales, está enclavado a más de 4.000 metros sobre el nivel del mar en plena Cordillera de Los Andes.
Hasta el momento, la empresa no ha contactado nuevamente a los trabajadores para reactivar un diálogo sobre la contratación.

(Por Fabián Andrés Cambero, editado por Marion Giraldo)

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El Hang Seng -0.06%, el Shanghai C. +0.67%, Australia -0.41%, Korea + 0.14%, el Nikkei +0.6%

Los futures del Dos Jones 16 puntos a la baja.