Miercoles 07/1216 INdice de la creacion de empleo

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La banca China tiene más de $2 trillones de deuda
La banca China tiene más de $2 trillones de deuda.
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Trump as Lady Gaga

Trump is a political performance artist, challenging what we think is normal.

By Daniel Henninger Dec. 7, 2016 6:47 p.m. ET
Wonder Land Columnist Dan Henninger on the similarities between president-elect Donald Trump and Lady Gaga. Photo: Getty

It is 12:13 a.m. and the president-elect of the United States, who has just named retired Marine Gen. James Mattis as his Secretary of Defense, is watching “Saturday Night Live.” Alec Baldwin is impersonating him. The president-elect tweets: “Just tried watching Saturday Night Live - unwatchable! Totally biased, not funny and the Baldwin impersonation just can’t get any worse. Sad.”

Twenty minutes later, from the SNL set, Alec Baldwin tweets he’ll stop if the president-elect will release his tax returns.

How is it possible that a man who selects Jim Mattis for Defense on Thursday can be in a tweet smackdown with Alec Baldwin Sunday morning?

The answer is coming into view. Donald Trump is Lady Gaga.

He is a performance artist.

He is challenging what we think is normal—first for a presidential campaign and now for the presidency.

He’s Andy Warhol silk-screening nine Jackie Kennedys. You can’t do that. Oh yes he can. Currently Donald Trump is silk-screening American corporations: Ford, Carrier, Rexnord, Boeing.

Andy Warhol called his studio The Factory. Reince Priebus, Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon are now in Donald Trump’s Factory. Like everyone else, they’ve got to figure out what’s coming next.

Lady Gaga once talked about the doubters in an interview: “They would say, ‘This is too racy, too dance-oriented, too underground. It’s not marketable.’ And I would say, ‘My name is Lady Gaga, I’ve been on the music scene for years, and I’m telling you, this is what’s next.’ And look . . . I was right.”

Who does that sound like?

In “The Art of the Deal,” Donald Trump described what he was up to: “I play to people’s fantasies.”

Anti-Trumpers will say: Precisely. We can’t have a performance artist as president of the United States.

That’s irrelevant now.

In four years it may be possible to say that making a performance artist president was a mistake. But that will only be true if he fails. If the Trump method succeeds, even reasonably so, it will be important to understand his art from the start.

So far, the media and the comedians are stuck in pre-Trump consciousness. You’d think the comedians would get it, but getting laughs from left-wing audiences has taken a toll.

Consider two Trump tweet performances:

Jill Stein commences her preposterous recounts and the press analyzes the threat to the Trump electoral-college victory.

Suddenly, the president-elect tweets that “millions” voted illegally for Hillary. The press pivots from Jill Stein to prove, across several days, that the Trump claim is “bogus.”

Like any smart performance artist, he’s made the strait-laced audience part of his act.

One day later, @realDonald Trump tweets: “Nobody should be allowed to burn the American flag - if they do, there must be consequences - perhaps loss of citizenship or year in jail!”

Now he’s the Queen of Hearts. Off with their heads! And like terriers chasing another tossed ball, the media ran down every case on the subject to prove, “court rulings forbid it.”

That is true. The courts forbid it. But if it is important to comprehend a president’s mind and intentions, it will be pointless if the media does nothing more the next four years than consider its job done if it microscopically fact-checks and flyspecks everything Donald Trump tweets.

Donald Trump treats the truth as only one of several props he’s willing to use to achieve an effect. Truth sits on his workbench alongside hyperbole, sentimentality, bluster and just kidding. Use as needed.

Another important distinction: Performers merely entertain. Performance artists challenge, subvert and alter. They may be slightly crazy, but they’re crazy serious, though usually a little unclear about where they’re going.

Donald Trump’s voters believed the country was going in the wrong direction—the most powerful metric in the election. They thought he was the one person who shared their sense of wrong direction. These voters wanted to move from point A (Obama) to point B (post-Obama), and they were willing to see the facts bent if indeed they could arrive at point B, such as an improvement in their economic well-being or escape from the politically correct alt-left.

Treating the presidency as political performance art has multiple liabilities. An initially exciting performance can turn tedious. I’ve talked to Trumpians, die-hards from day one, who think the tweets worked in the campaign but not for the Oval Office. An overworked exclamation point loses its meaning!

Will Donald Trump, like Madonna, be driven to ever more outrageous public performances (“Cancel order!”) to keep the world’s attention trained on his persona? From Beijing to Washington, he’s got the world’s attention.

Some of America’s most charismatic presidents were also public performance artists who challenged and overturned status quos: Abraham Lincoln,Franklin Roosevelt,John Kennedy,Ronald Reagan. All of them knew that a successful American presidency would be measured by a totality greater than their public performances.

Write henninger@wsj.com.

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Stocks Advance as ECB Extends Asset Purchases

Global shares up after U.S. indexes hit record highs and the ECB extends asset purchases at a lower volume than expected

By Riva Gold Updated Dec. 8, 2016 8:28 a.m. ET
Stocks extended a winning streak on Thursday, while government bonds came under pressure after the European Central Bank extended its asset purchase program but at a lower volume than expected.

Futures suggested U.S. stocks would open 0.1% higher, after major bourses closed at fresh records in their steepest best day since the presidential election.

The Stoxx Europe 600 wavered but quickly rebounded to trade up 0.6% after the ECB said it would extend its bond-purchase program by nine months to the end of 2017, but would reduce its monthly purchase volume from €80 billion ($86.2 billion) to €60 billion as of April.

Sentiment got a lift after Wall Street notched its best performance since the U.S. election on Wednesday, sending both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs. ENLARGE
Sentiment got a lift after Wall Street notched its best performance since the U.S. election on Wednesday, sending both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs. Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Investors were looking ahead to the ECB’s press conference with President Mario Draghi for further details on changes to the parameters of its asset purchase program, amid concerns the bank is running out of bonds to buy.

The euro strengthened slightly to trade up 0.4% at $1.0798 after the decision but quickly shed most of its gains and was last flat at $1.0756.

Yields on 10-year German bunds shot up to 0.449% from around 0.385% ahead of the decision, while Italian yields rose to 2.050% from 1.968%.

“Even without calling this tapering, the ECB just announced tapering,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING.

Recent comments from ECB officials had emphasized the importance of preserving stimulus, a message that bond investors appeared to have taken to heart. Riskier European debt and Italian debt had rallied earlier this week despite the concerns emanating from the Italian referendum, a move some attributed to expectations for an extension of quantitative easing.

Even as inflation remains shy of the ECB’s target, eurozone economic data have been better than forecast recently, and the euro has weakened against a rising dollar, alleviating some of the pressure for further stimulus measures.

“This is their last hurrah,” said Jordan Rochester, strategist at Nomura.

The moves also come amid a global selloff in long-dated government bonds on expectations that U.S. policy will be reflationary. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last at 2.408% from 2.347% on Wednesday.

Investors have bet that the Trump administration will bring about tax cuts, deregulation and fiscal stimulus, supporting growth and inflation in the world’s largest economy and buoying U.S. stocks while pressuring government bonds.

“The promise of fiscal policy is certainly encouraging. but we have to discern the difference between posturing and policy from our president-elect,” said Eric Wiegand, portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “Tax policy and trade policy are very big issues for us, and we’re anxious to get a sense of actual policy.”

Markets in Asia closed higher earlier Thursday after a rally on Wall Street sent both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs.

Health care was the only S&P 500 sector to decline Wednesday, while Pfizer Inc., Johnson & Johnson and Merck & Co. were the only three stocks in the Dow to lose ground, following comments on drug pricing from President-elect Donald Trump.
Those moves were echoed in Europe on Thursday, with the health care sector down 0.4% even as wider markets advanced.

Earlier, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.5% on Thursday, while Australian stocks added 1.2%.

Markets in Hong Kong added 0.3% while Shanghai stocks fell 0.2% with sentiment subdued in Chinese markets by authorities’ increased scrutiny of aggressive stock purchases by some insurance companies.

—Tom Fairless and Kenan Machado contributed to this article.

Write to Riva Gold at riva.gold@wsj.com

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China Eases Back Into Selling Shares

Raising equity makes a comeback a year after unprecedented stock-market crash

By Shen Hong Dec. 8, 2016 5:21 a.m. ET
China’s securities regulator has increased the pace of approvals for initial public offerings and share placements since the summer. Shown, a stock-exchange hall in Nanjing in August 2015. ENLARGE
China’s securities regulator has increased the pace of approvals for initial public offerings and share placements since the summer. Shown, a stock-exchange hall in Nanjing in August 2015. Photo: VCG/Getty Images

SHANGHAI—A year on from an unprecedented stock-market crash, equity-raising is back in fashion for Chinese companies—with Beijing’s quiet encouragement.

The country’s securities regulator has increased the pace of approvals for initial public offerings and share placements since the summer, with total equity raised on China’s stock markets reaching 1.54 trillion yuan ($218.1 billion) this year, 29% higher than in the same period last year.

The rush in the past few months stands in contrast to the dearth of activity earlier in the year, when Chinese authorities were still reeling after a period of market turmoil that began in the summer of 2015. A stock-market slump in January was followed by the firing of China’s top securities regulator in February and the abandonment of a long-planned, market-oriented overhaul of stock-listing rules. Approvals for IPOs slowed to a trickle.

Two factors lie behind the comeback of equity-raising in China. First, market conditions have stabilized: Shares in Shanghai are still down nearly 9% this year but have risen 22% since their trough in late January, technically entering a bull market.

Second, Chinese policy makers are eager to wean companies from their addiction to borrowing, which has helped take the country’s total corporate debt to 148.7% of gross domestic product from 90.2% since 2008, in turn raising stress levels for China’s banks and bond markets.

ENLARGE

“The authorities are indeed returning to the path of relying more on equity financing. It’s all because of the need to deleverage the economy,” said Zhu Chaoping, China economist at UOB Kay Hian Holdings Ltd., a Singapore-based investment bank.

Beijing has pushed companies to rely more on the stock markets for financing before. In late 2014 and early 2015, it issued a series of directives that encouraged state-owned companies to raise more equity. The government’s open enthusiasm for stocks helped fuel a huge run-up in the markets that preceded last year’s crash, with the main Shanghai Composite Index rising by nearly 60% in the first six months of last year.

This time around, Beijing isn’t being quite so open about its support for stock markets as a place for companies to raise money. The official Xinhua News Agency broke this week a long period of government silence on the markets in an article that described the stock market as reacting “calmly” to the recent quickened pace of IPO approvals. Citing Wei Gang, director of listings at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the article said the latest developments show the once-battered market is recovering its fundraising function.

In early 2015, “the strong propaganda actually encouraged investors to become even more speculative,” said Shen Meng, director at Chanson & Co., a Beijing-based boutique investment bank. “This time the authorities have clearly learned the lesson.”

While 61 companies received approval to list on China’s stock markets during the first six months of this year, there have been 172 approvals in the second half. In November alone, a monthly record of 52 IPO approvals were given. Meanwhile, the total amount of share placements by companies has reached 1.39 trillion yuan this year, 34% higher than the 1.04 trillion yuan raised at the same point a year ago and already surpassing last year’s total of 1.37 trillion.

The increased momentum in equity-raising comes as Beijing has placed ever greater priority on reducing China’s debt levels.

The Communist Party’s top decision-making body said in July that deleveraging is one of the five major tasks China faces to turn its slowing economy around. In September, the Chinese central bank began cutting the supply of short-term loans in the money market that had often ended up in the hands of speculators.

In October, the State Council, China’s cabinet, called for the increased use of a program whereby companies can swap their debt for equity and for broader equity financing, among other measures to reduce the high level of corporate borrowing.

‘China’s future economic growth simply can’t rely on massive credit expansion and inefficient investment anymore.’

—Shen Meng, Chanson & Co.
“China’s future economic growth simply can’t rely on massive credit expansion and inefficient investment anymore,” Mr. Shen said. “That’s why the government is trying to let private and social capital play a bigger role here, including the stock market.”

The quickening pace of IPO approvals also reflects the securities regulator’s intention to cut a severe backlog of listing applicants. Even though the queue of companies applying for an IPO has dropped to 739, down from close to 900 at the start of this year, it remains a large headache.

“The regulator hopes to keep the current momentum for at least another year so that it could reach the goal of reducing the wait time to an average of 15 months in the future, compared with two or three years at the moment,” said a senior investment banker briefed on the matter.

Write to Shen Hong at hong.shen@wsj.com

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6916.99 14.76 0.21%
Germany: DAX 11108.17 121.48 1.11%
France: CAC 40 4728.93 34.21 0.73%
Stoxx Europe 600 350.65 2.95 0.85%
Hang Seng 22861.84 60.92 0.27%
Japan: Nikkei 225 18765.47 268.78 1.45%
DJIA 19549.62 297.84 1.55%
Europe Dow 1556.23 7.65 0.49%
Global Dow

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Los seguros de desempleo en 258,000 en línea con lo esperado.

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