Lunes 09/01/17 Indice del mercado laboral

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Banking, Energy Lead European Stocks Lower; Sterling Drops Sharply

British currency falls more than 1% to lowest level against dollar since October

By Mike Bird Updated Jan. 9, 2017 6:39 a.m. ET
European stocks fell on Monday morning, despite positive economic data from Germany, the region’s largest economy.

The Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.5% in late-morning trading. Official German economic data showed a 2.2% rise in industrial production year-over-year in November and a 5.6% rise in exports.

The banking and energy sectors, which have helped to power the recent rally, fell on Monday. Stoxx 600 oil and gas stocks were down by 0.88%, while Stoxx 600 bank stocks were down 1.1%.

In the U.S., S&P 500 futures and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.07% and 0.05%, respectively. The Dow rose to as high as 19999.63 on Friday, just shy of the totemic 20000 milestone.

A bear and a bull statue stand outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Frankfurt. European shares fell Monday and the pound plunged.
A bear and a bull statue stand outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Frankfurt. European shares fell Monday and the pound plunged. Photo: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg News

In currency markets, the pound slumped to its lowest since October against the dollar, falling by more than 1% to $1.216 as European markets opened.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100, which tends to benefit from a fall in sterling, was one of the few European indexes in the green Monday, rising 0.1% to a fresh record high.

The drop in sterling follows comments from British Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday, saying that the U.K. would make a definitive break with the European Union.

The government has promised that Article 50—the formal starting gun that begins a two-year Brexit negotiation period—will be triggered by the end of March.

“The government appears ill-prepared for the Brexit talks,” a research note from J.P. Morgan researchers said. According to the analysts, of the widely traded group of 10 currencies, only sterling remains overvalued against the dollar.

The improved German data followed a string of consumer and business surveys, which suggest the economic outlook in the eurozone is improving.

“Everything seems to be looking better in Europe,” said Emily Nicol, economist at Daiwa Capital Markets. “The sentiment data has been really positive, up to the highest since the 2011.”

Positive data has also led some analysts to upgrade their expectations for European stocks.

“More than stronger long-term growth prospects, we think that receding concerns are the main reasons for the European equity market to climb higher,” said Goldman Sachs analysts in a research note. The bank has upgraded its forecast for Stoxx Europe 600 returns over the next three months, to 2.6% from minus 4.3%.

Boston and Atlanta Fed Presidents Eric Rosengren and Dennis Lockhart are scheduled to speak later today, with investors listening for hints as to the path of U.S. monetary policy.

Mr. Rosengren is currently a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Mr. Lockhart will be leaving his post at the end of February.

Global government bond yields fell slightly, with Germany’s 10-year bund yield down from 0.298% at Friday’s close, to 0.29%. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell from 2.421% to 2.396%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shenzhen A-share indexes closed up 0.25% and 0.3%, respectively. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday Monday.

Write to Mike Bird at Mike.Bird@wsj.com

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El-Erian Says Market Should Worry About Dollar Being Too Strong

More stories by Lisa DuJanuary 6, 2017, 10:30 AM EST
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz SE’s chief economic adviser, said investors shouldn’t overlook risks tied to the strengthening U.S. currency.

“The number I look at every morning is what the dollar is doing,” El-Erian said Friday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “And the thing that the market should worry about is the dollar strengthening too quickly and too much. That is what could derail us.”

The greenback gained after a Labor Department report showed that payrolls rose in December as wages jumped the most since 2009. The dollar has climbed more than five percent since Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election increased expectations of fiscal stimulus, while Federal Reserve officials projected they’ll lift interest rates three times in 2017. A stronger currency could pressure U.S. exports, hurting the manufacturing industry that Trump promised to revive.
Factory workers helped fuel Trump’s surprise win in November. And the latest jobs report showed why many feel they aren’t sharing in the nation’s prosperity, according to Danny Blanchflower, an economist at Dartmouth University who appeared with El-Erian on BTV. He pointed to data showing blue-collar workers had more modest wage gains than the rest of the labor force.

“I think we’re a long way away from happy days,” said Blanchflower.

The participation rate, which shows the share of working-age people in the labor force, was 62.7 percent and has been hovering close to the lowest level in more than three decades. Still, the U.S. added 156,000 jobs in December, following a 204,000 rise in November that was bigger than previously estimated.

‘Cyclically Robust’

“This is a cyclically robust labor market but a structurally challenged labor market,” said El-Erian, who is also a Bloomberg View columnist. “It looks good cyclically, but structurally -- whether you look at the employment-to-population rate or labor-participation -- we’re still challenged.”

El-Erian said increased infrastructure spending, tax reform and well-conceived deregulation could provide immediate help. Beyond that, the nation needs to create a more skilled workforce with people able to take on new roles in a shifting economy.

“That speaks to long-term elements,” he said.

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http://elcomercio.pe/movil/economia/per ... ia-1959015

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Perspectivas 2017: AFP Integra espera crecer alrededor de 4%

Aldo Ferrini, gerente general de AFP Integra, anunció que la firma trabajará en acercarse al afiliado de cara al 2017. (Video: Paola Villar)

AFP Integra, administradora de pensiones vinculada al Grupo Sura, destacó que el 2016 fue un año importante para la rentabilidad del sistema de pensiones. Según Aldo Ferrini, gerente general de la firma, de cara al 2017 será importante trabajar en fortalecerlo, hacerlo sostenible y, así, generar una mayor cobertura a nivel nacional.

El ejecutivo compartió con El Comercio algunas cifras sobre cómo le fue a los fondos durante el año pasado. Según los datos, el fondo 0 cerró con rentabilidad de 3,25%; el fondo 1, con 7,6%; el fondo 2, con 9,5% y finalmente el fondo 3, con 10,1%. "Un año bastante bueno", destacó.

En cuanto a sus perspectivas para este año, Ferrini precisó que tanto AFP Integra como el resto de involucrados con el sistema -Gobierno, Congreso, organismos multilaterales, afiliados y otras AFPs- deberán enfocar sus esfuerzos en trabajar por una verdadera reforma. "Sin apasionamientos, buscando un sistema sostenible en el tiempo, beneficioso para el afiliado y fiscalmente responsable", detalló.

Por otro lado, indicó que AFP Integra espera crecer, en términos de recaudación, en el orden del 3% y 4%. "Todavía no estamos viendo un rebote muy potente porque las normas o actividades del ejecutivo en el ámbito de formalización son recientes. Creo que vamos a empezar a verlas en el segundo semestre", señaló el ejecutivo.

En cuanto a nuevos productos, Ferrini anunció que AFP Integra trabajará en acercarse al afiliado; por este motivo, la firma fomentará iniciativas que buscan interesar al afiliado por investigar y saber más sobre su pensión y las principales variables que la mejorarían.

Finalmente, en cuanto a sus expectativas sobre el crecimiento de la economía peruana, dijo esperar ver los resultados de todo lo que está trabajando en el sistema y, de este modo, cumplir los objetivos de crecimiento de AFP Integra.

"Creo que vamos a ver resultados también de los fondos de pensiones. Quizá no tan buenos como los del 2016, pero positivos; donde el fondo 3 nuevamente sea el fondo con mayor rentabilidad", puntualizó.

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Sentenciados por corrupción no podrán contratar con el Estado

Las%20grandes%20contrataciones%20que%20realiza%20el%20Estado%20son%2C%20sobretodo%2C%20para%20obras%20de%20infraestructura.%20%28Foto%3A%20Archivo%20El%20Comercio%29
Las grandes contrataciones que realiza el Estado son, sobretodo, para obras de infraestructura. (Foto: Archivo El Comercio)
Al amparo de las facultades legislativas, el Gobierno dictó una serie de medidas que modifican la ley de Contrataciones del Estado de modo que ahora se excluye de los proveedores del Estado a las personas o empresas sancionadas por corrupción en el país o el extranjero.

La nueva ley de contrataciones, que entrará en vigencia dentro de unos 75 días, señala que están impedidas de contratar con el Estado las personas naturales o jurídicas condenadas, en el país o en el extranjero, mediante sentencia consentida por delitos de concusipon, peculado, corrupción de funcionarios, enriquecimiento ilícito, tráfico de influencias, entre otros delitos.

Bajo esta norma, empresas como Odebrecht quedarán impedidas de realizar contrataciones con el Estado Peruano debido a sus actos de corrupción en Brasil y otros países de América Latina, incluyendo el Perú.

También estarán impedidas las empresas o personas que sean la continuación de los sujetos ya condenados (testaferros o empresas creadas por personas ya condenadas); así como las personas inscritas en el Registro de Deudores de Reparaciones Civiles.

En el caso de los consorcios, se precisa ahora que los integrantes del consorcio son responsables solidarios de las infracciones que se cometan, a menos que se pueda demostrar individualizar la responsabilidad.

SEGUROS EXTRANJEROS
Entre otros cambios, la norma permite ahora la contratación de seguros patrimoniales con proveedores no domiciliados, siempre que se sustente que las condiciones dadas por la firma extranjera sean más competitivas.

INCOMPATIBILIDADES
La nueva ley de contratacione restringe la posibilidad de encargar procedimientos de selección a entidades internacionales, se explicita mejor las incompatibilidades que tienen los funcionarios del Estado para convertirse en proveedor del Estado.

Finalmente, se ha mejorado el régimen de sanciones y se han realizado cambios en temas de arbitrajes y recursos administrativos.

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Oil Prices Slip as U.S. Drilling Activity Picks Up

Lingering doubts over production cuts also weigh

By Kevin Baxter and Jenny W. Hsu Jan. 9, 2017 5:39 a.m. ET
Oil prices fell Monday as lingering doubts over production cuts and concerns over increased drilling activities in the U.S. damped sentiment among traders and money managers.

The March contract for global crude benchmark Brent fell 1.73% to $56.10 while its U.S. counterpart West Texas Intermediate was down 1.74% at $53.05 for February deliveries.

The major headwind for prices over the weekend was the report from the Houston-based oil-field services company Baker Hughes that drilling rigs in the U.S. had increased by four for the week ended Dec. 30. The uptick was the 10th straight week of rig-count growth and the U.S. now has the highest number of rigs in operation, at 529, since December 2015.

Dominick Chirichella, an analyst from the New York-based Energy Management Institute, said the elevated rig count was starting to alarm some observers and was a probable consequence of the recent oil-price rally. To put the figures into perspective, U.S. oil production was 9.225 million barrels a day in December 2015 compared with current levels of 8.77 million barrels a day as reported last week by the Energy Information Administration.

Pump jacks and a gas flare near Williston, N.D. Higher U.S. oil production is an expected byproduct of higher oil prices following OPEC’s decision to cut output.
Pump jacks and a gas flare near Williston, N.D. Higher U.S. oil production is an expected byproduct of higher oil prices following OPEC’s decision to cut output. Photo: robyn beck/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Higher oil production from the U.S. is an expected byproduct of higher oil prices caused by the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Nov. 30 last year to trim output to 32.5 million barrels a day.

Despite market skepticism over the planned production cut, the global crude market still started the year on a relatively positive note, said the Melbourne-based ANZ Research.

“The next leg-up in prices probably won’t occur until the traders see evidence that production levels are falling,” ANZ said, adding that rising U.S. drilling activity and output are likely to keep prices in check.

Production data from major OPEC producers won’t be available until mid-February, leading most market watchers to predict prices will be more volatile than usual as snippets of information regarding the cuts are released by the media over the next six weeks.

This has been evident over the past week with prices fluctuating whenever reports involving major producers such as Saudi Arabia or Kuwait have been published.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for February—the benchmark gasoline contract—fell by 1.47% to $1.68 a gallon, while February diesel traded at $1.68, 1.43% lower. ICE gasoil for January changed hands at $494.50 a metric ton, down 0.9%.

Write to Kevin Baxter at Kevin.Baxter@wsj.com and Jenny W. Hsu at jenny.hsu@wsj.com

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OIl down 52.75

Au up 1,180

-56

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Los americanos produciendo mas petroleo por eso la caida hoy.

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-48

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-50.52

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Europa a la baja.

El Nasdaq en azul

Oil down 52,83

Ag up 16.60

-50.54

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-62.90

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-55.05

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Amigos foristas, que temas les interesa que discutamos, que informacion es la que mas les interesa?

A ver si reactivamos este foro. Necesito de sus comentarios y participacion.

Saludos,

Aguila

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