Miercoles 01/02/17 La decision del Fed

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Fed Unlikely to Make Its Next Rate Move Wednesday

Three Fed regional bank presidents will cast FOMC votes for the first time at the meeting ending Wednesday

By David Harrison Feb. 1, 2017 6:00 a.m. ET
The Federal Reserve building in Washington. The central bank will release a policy statement at 2 p.m. EST Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve building in Washington. The central bank will release a policy statement at 2 p.m. EST Wednesday. Photo: karen bleier/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to hold short-term interest rates steady at its two-day policy meeting that concludes Wednesday. Chairwoman Janet Yellen doesn’t hold a press conference after this gathering, and the central bank doesn’t release new economic projections, so all eyes will be on the postmeeting policy statement to be released at 2 p.m. EST. The statement could provide insight into officials’ thinking about how soon they might raise rates again and how much they expect to move them this year. Here’s what to watch.

Dear March, Come In

Will Fed officials next raise rates at their March meeting? Their statement isn’t likely to include any explicit mention of action then, but it could offer clues about their readiness to move again after boosting rates by a quarter percentage point in December. Officials then penciled in three quarter-point rate increases for 2017, and Ms. Yellen said recently she expects to raise rates “a few times a year” through 2019. Opening the door now to a March rate increase would give markets time to prepare. On the other hand, officials might decide there is little need to tip their hand so soon. Ms. Yellen is set to address congressional committees Feb. 14-15 and might choose to deliver her message then about the likelihood of a March move.

The Course of Inflation

Fed officials got some welcome news earlier this week when the Commerce Department reported an uptick in the central bank’s preferred inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. The gauge was up 1.6% in December over the previous year, bringing the Fed one step closer to its 2% inflation target. Much of that increase, however, is due to stabilizing oil prices. A separate measure excluding volatile food and energy prices has been mostly flat for the past six months. Still, if the Fed’s statement strikes an upbeat tone on price growth, it could signal that officials believe their inflation goal is in sight.

The Trump Effect

This will be the first Fed meeting of the Trump era. Though the Fed statement is unlikely to mention the new president by name, it could nod to his policy plans by noting the possibility of faster growth due to proposals for tax cuts and increased government spending. Several Fed officials have said recently such fiscal measures could overheat the economy and drive up inflation, which could cause them to raise borrowing costs more than otherwise. If they mentioned that concern—perhaps in the section on risks to the outlook—it could signal they stand ready to respond.

Balancing the Balance Sheet

Three rounds of bond-purchase programs left the Fed with a formidable $4.5 trillion portfolio of assets. Some officials now say 2017 may be the year to start discussing when and how to start shrinking the balance sheet. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, for instance, said Jan. 20 that steps to begin the process “should happen sometime this year if things work out at least as I hope.” This is uncharted territory for the Fed, and officials may want to give markets a long lead time before taking any action. They could signal that the discussion has begun by tweaking the language in the statement about plans to continue reinvesting the proceeds of the Fed’s maturing bonds.

The New Voters

The Fed’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee is losing three of its more “hawkish” voters this year, all of whom are regional bank presidents: Kansas City’s Esther George, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester and Boston’s Eric Rosengren. All three dissented at the September meeting saying they wanted to raise rates, while the majority voted to stand pat. St. Louis President James Bullard was also a voter last year, but isn’t in 2017 due to the Fed’s annual rotation system. Of the four regional bank presidents taking their place, three will be casting their very first FOMC votes: Philadelphia’s Mr. Harker, Dallas’s Robert Kaplan and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari. Chicago’s Charles Evans is the other official rotating into an FOMC voting position this year. No dissents are expected Wednesday, since no officials have openly advocated a rate increase at this meeting. But the new voters’ actions could be an interesting subplot of 2017.

Write to David Harrison at david.harrison@wsj.com

[admin]

Gracias Trump
ADP dijo que se crearon 246,000 empleos en Enero! Se esperaban 165,000. Bravo!!
BOOM! 2016 job growth starts with a bang: ADP http://www.cnbc.com/id/104254158
http://www.cnbc.com/id/104254158

[admin]

http://www.wsj.com/public/page/espanol-inicio.html

[admin]

http://lat.wsj.com/articles/SB102895047 ... 58?tesla=y

[admin]

9.49 0.70%
Global Dow 2606.05 8.31 0.32%
Japan: Nikkei 225 19148.08 106.74 0.56%
Stoxx Europe 600 364.24 4.12 1.14%
UK: FTSE 100 7145.66 46.51 0.66%
CURRENCIES8:44 AM EST 2/1/2017
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0777 -0.0021
Yen (USD/JPY) 113.47 0.66
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2659 0.0081
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7572 -0.0012
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9911 0.0016
WSJ Dollar Index 90.63 0.15
GOVERNMENT BONDS8:44 AM EST 2/1/2017
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -9/32 2.491
German 10 Year -11/32 0.476
Japan 10 Year -2/32 0.096
FUTURES8:34 AM EST 2/1/2017
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 53.29 0.48 0.91%
Brent Crude N/A N/A N/A
Gold 1208.4 -3.0 -0.25%
Silver 17.470 -0.073 -0.42%
E-mini DJIA 19858 66 0.33%
E-mini S&P 500

[golcito18]

http://lat.wsj.com/articles/SB10289504714668864005604582593513906738258?tesla=y

Trump sabe lo que se necesita para crear valor y riqueza!!! go trump!

[admin]

Y hace falta un Trump en el Perú.

[admin]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-unlike ... 1485946802

[admin]

9.49 0.70%
Global Dow 2604.64 6.90 0.27%
Japan: Nikkei 225 19148.08 106.74 0.56%
Stoxx Europe 600 364.34 4.22 1.17%
UK: FTSE 100 7143.38 44.23 0.62%
CURRENCIES9:04 AM EST 2/1/2017
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0756 -0.0041
Yen (USD/JPY) 113.59 0.79
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2644 0.0066
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7566 -0.0018
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9922 0.0027
WSJ Dollar Index 90.72 0.24
GOVERNMENT BONDS9:04 AM EST 2/1/2017
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -7/32 2.485
German 10 Year -9/32 0.472
Japan 10 Year -2/32 0.096
FUTURES8:54 AM EST 2/1/2017
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 53.33 0.52 0.98%
Brent Crude 56.19 0.61 1.10%
Gold 1207.2 -4.2 -0.35%
Silver 17.460 -0.083 -0.47%
E-mini DJIA 19867 75 0.38%
E-mini S&P 500

[admin]

AAPL +5%

[admin]

+81.75

[admin]

Au down 1,205

OIl up 53.35

Ag down 17.44

El oro menos brillante hoy dia.

[admin]

Son 100,000 empleos adicionales a los que normalmente se crean mensualmente que se crearon gracias a Trump. Esta economia se disparara con Trump.

[admin]

+86.03

[golcito18]

Au down 1,205

OIl up 53.35

Ag down 17.44

El oro menos brillante hoy dia.

si la FED no sube las tasas, el efecto no debería ser que el oro se aprecie?