Miercoles 01/12/10 ventas de autos, ADP, ISM

[RCHF]

Sólo ha subido ligeramente por encima de 1% en 45 días en Perú
15:59 BCR considera que alza de dólar es hipo temporal y poco significativo


Lima, dic. 01 (ANDINA). El presidente del Banco Central de Reserva (BCR), Julio Velarde, afirmó hoy que el alza que ha registrado el precio del dólar en los últimos días es un hipo temporal y poco significativo, por lo que no considera conveniente intervenir en el mercado.
“El precio del dólar se ha movido muy poco en Perú durante la crisis y durante este período de incertidumbre, ligeramente más de uno por ciento en 45 días”, anotó.

Manifestó que no ha habido mayor movimiento del tipo de cambio en el mercado cambiario peruano y, si hubiera una crisis severa que llevara a una devaluación muy fuerte, el BCR intervendría pero los movimientos han sido pequeños.

Dijo que intervendrían, por ejemplo, ante la presencia de una crisis similar a la generada con la caída del banco estadounidense Lehman Brothers, cuarto banco de inversión de Estados Unidos que en setiembre del 2008 se declaró en quiebra dando paso al estallido de la crisis financiera global.

“Ante una crisis como la que hubo con Lehman Brothers, el BCR intervendría vendiendo dólares, pero esto es un hipo y no un derrumbe del resto de monedas”, precisó.

Aseveró que el ente emisor interviene cuando observa cambios excesivos en la tendencia del tipo de cambio, pero no se ha observado este comportamiento por lo que no se interviene hace un mes.

“Intervenimos cuando vemos una tendencia continua de apreciación o depreciación fuerte pues no hay ningún compromiso con ningún tipo de cambio”, refirió.

Velarde calificó de sobre reacción la turbulencia de los mercados, por lo consideró que el desequilibrio debe ser temporal.

[RCHF]

Producción de Electricidad creció 9.01 en octubre y la Agropecuaria lo hizo en 4.60%


Lima, dic. 01 (ANDINA). La producción del subsector Electricidad avanzó 9.01 por ciento en octubre del 2010, manteniendo el comportamiento positivo presentado desde inicios de año, señaló hoy el Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI).
Este comportamiento estuvo sustentado en la mayor producción de energía de las empresas Edegel, Egasa, SN Power Perú, San Gabán, Electro Piura, Kallpa Generación, Egesur, Electro Oriente, Electro Ucayali, entre las principales, indicó el INEI en su Avance Coyuntural de la Actividad Económica octubre 2010.

Este subsector comprende la producción de electricidad de las empresas generadoras de servicio público, que operan en el Sistema Interconectado Nacional y los Sistemas Aislados.

Según origen, la producción de energía eléctrica de origen térmico aumentó en 23.12 por ciento, mientras que la de origen hidráulica se redujo en 1.49 por ciento.

La producción Agropecuaria mostró un comportamiento positivo en octubre tras crecer 4.60 por ciento, manteniendo el buen desempeño de meses anteriores, tras la caída de agosto.

Este desempeño respondió al comportamiento favorable de los subsectores Pecuario (5.95 por ciento) y Agrícola (3.34 por ciento).

Entre los productos pecuarios destacan la mayor producción de ave (8.73 por ciento), huevos (6.30 por ciento), vacuno (5.19 por ciento) y leche fresca (2.40 por ciento).

En el subsector Agrícola aumentó la producción de cacao (58.14 por ciento), cebolla (33.09 por ciento), maíz amarillo duro (13.76 por ciento) y papa (9.29 por ciento).

La producción del sector Pesca, que comprende la Pesca Marítima y la Pesca Continental, cayó 16.83 por ciento en octubre, acumulando su cuarta caída sucesiva, debido a una menor captura de especies destinadas al consumo humano directo (-18.69 por ciento).

Asimismo, disminuyó la captura de anchoveta destinada para consumo humano indirecto (harina y aceite de pescado) en 79.78 por ciento.

La producción del sector Minería e Hidrocarburos se redujo en 0.60 por ciento en octubre, acumulando tres meses consecutivos de caída.

Este retroceso respondió a la contracción de la Minería Metálica en 6.76 por ciento, explicado por la menor producción de estaño (-25.22 por ciento), plomo (-19.60 por ciento), oro (-13.48 por ciento) y plata (-10.17 por ciento).

El subsector Hidrocarburos aumentó en 43.63 por ciento, sustentado principalmente en la mayor producción de gas natural (163.59 por ciento).

En la medición de este sector, la Minería Metálica tiene una participación de 79.4 por ciento e Hidrocarburos un peso de 20.6 por ciento.

En tanto, el consumo interno de cemento creció en 10.17 por ciento en octubre, comprendiendo el despacho local de cemento (despacho total deducido la exportación) más la importación de cemento.

De otro lado, el INEI informó que los créditos hipotecarios para vivienda aumentaron en 21.20 por ciento en el mes de octubre del 2010, seguido de los créditos corporativos de grandes, medianas, pequeñas y microempresas que crecieron en 19.23 por ciento y los créditos de consumo en 10.33 por ciento.

[admin]

Los documentos del Fed ha dejado con la boca abierta a los economistas y analistas, todos estan asombrados de la cantidad de fondos que el Fed facilito no solo a gobiernos, bancos centrales si no tambien a companias alrededor del mundo como BMW por ejemplo.

El Fed rescato al mundo, hoy lo podemos decir sin la menor duda.

El poder del Fed es incuestionable.

[carl_]

Los fondos de EEUU se juegan 306.000 millones en los bancos europeos
Americaeconomica.com
La crisis de la deuda soberana europea amenaza con cruzar el charco. Algunos de los mayores fondos monetarios del país mantienen una exposición de 306.000 millones de euros al cambio actual, un 17,3% de sus activos, a los bonos emitidos por los bancos españoles e italianos. En este escenario, Lael Brainard, mujer de confianza de Tim Geithner en el Tesoro, ha iniciado una gira por Europa.

[admin]

Se especula que el ECB maniana dara mas medidas de apoyo a la economia, pero especialmente enfocadas a ayudar a los paises periferales y alejandose un poco de las medidas pro Alemania. Por eso tambien subio el mercado y la banca de algunos paises Europeos repuntaron.

Por un dia todas las estrellas se alinearon para darle la razon a los bulls, China crece fuerte, Inglaterra mejora y todos los indicadores economicos en US apuntan a esabendita recuperacion moderada que aunque no robusta es recuperacion, hoy Goldman salio a decir que en las ultimas semanas la economia Americana se habia iluminado y que esperaban una mejor recuperacion.

Y es solo lo que se necesita: optimismo en el futuro, optimismo basado en que no se dejaran expirar los recortes de impuestos de Bush, se tomaran medidas serias para reducir el deficit y el gasto del gobierno, las utilidades de las corporaciones Americanas estan mas fuertes que nunca, el consumo aumenta, las ventas de navidad seran una de las mejores en muchos anios, las ventas de autos aumentaron, etc, etc, etc.

Siguen las buenas noticias.

Maniana esperemos que las ventas retail sean buenas y que se confirme la creacion de empleos en el sector privado.

Veremos. Obviamente se van a ver las ventas por toma de ganancias, lo cual es comprensible despues de un dia de rally como el del hoy dia.

[admin]

El Dow Jones subio nada menos que 249.86 puntos a 11,255.78 puntos.

[admin]

Diciembre es el mejor mes del anio para el stock market. El rally de Santa...

Goldman dijo que el oro se va a $1,750 y no seria la primera vez que tienen razon y no seria la primera vez que se equivocan.

------------

Data Points: Energy & Metals

By MarketBeat Staff

Nymex crude for January delivery rose $2.64 per barrel.

Biggest one-day dollar gain since July 22.
Up two of the last three days.

Comex gold for December delivery gained $2.30 per troy ounce, or 0.17% to $1387.30.

Up for the third consecutive session.
Up $25.00, or 1.84% over the last three sessions.

[admin]

Las que no participaron del rally hoy dia, parece que no recibieron el memo:

MBI -1.90%

MMR -0.54%

NVTL -11.01%

TTM -4.95%

NFLX -2.82%

[admin]

El Fed revelo que la banca Europea es la que recibio mas ayuda de esa institucion. Que barbaridad!!

El Fed gano en toda esta crisis $60 billones. Cifra nada despreciable.

[admin]

Desafiando todo pronostico y a todos los escepticos, el dolar fue la mejor clase de inversion en Noviembre.

[admin]

Los inversionistas de bonos estan aumentando su expectativa de que el ECB usara su reunion mensual el Jueves para impulsar el mercado de bonos de gobierno de los paises periferales.



Bond Markets Raise Stakes for ECB Meeting

By Brian Blackstone
European bond investors are raising expectations that the European Central Bank will use its monthly meeting Thursday to forcefully prop up government bond markets of its beleaguered periphery by, among other things, ramping up purchases of government debt.

Those hopes appear to be based on seemingly innocuous comments by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to the European Parliament Tuesday. He told parliamentarians that the ECB’s six-month-old program to buy government bonds of peripheral countries is “ongoing” in order to ensure a smooth transmission of monetary policy.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.Here’s the quote, according to Reuters: “We will see what we decide for the future. It is entirely the decision of the Governing Council. But this program is ongoing.”

Mr. Trichet’s comments reflect the obvious, but analysts at Barclays Capital and elsewhere took Mr. Trichet’s comments — he also warned, as he often does, against underestimating the resolve of euro zone governments in dealing with Europe’s fiscal woes — to suggest that the ECB is poised to step up its bond buys. Yield spreads between government bonds of Spain, Italy and other peripheral countries fell Wednesday on those hopes.

On Monday the ECB announced it had purchased over 1.3 billion euros in peripheral bonds last week, the largest amount since September, bringing the total to more than 67 billion euros since the program was created in early May.

Still, the ECB prides itself on resisting political pressure and may well stay out of the bond markets in the coming days just to prove a point.

The ECB has a number of options to consider:

1) Delay their exit strategy by continuing to extend three-month loans in unlimited amounts through the first quarter. ECB officials have in recent weeks signaled they would like to go back to competitive bidding for those loans amid signs that the euro-zone economy is strengthening. However, J.P. Morgan economist Greg Fuzesi notes that, given renewed tensions in markets, “why rush the exit and take the risk.” He expects unlimited loans to stay in place through the first quarter.

(Many other economists agree, making this a likely scenario at Thursday’s meeting).

2) Mr. Trichet could make it clear at Thursday’s press conference that the ECB stands ready to increase purchases of bonds, as needed, to ensure smooth functioning of financial markets without giving specific numbers. The ECB would probably have to follow up quickly with purchases to show it’s serious. That would let financial markets know that the ECB backstop remains and would help skirt the opposition that would likely come from the ECB’s German contingent. Bundesbank chief Axel Weber has been the most vocal opponent of buying bonds, saying it blurs the lines between fiscal and monetary policy.

(This scenario is a possibility since the ECB would maintain flexibility and avoid another public spat between Mssrs. Weber and Trichet. But any positive effect on markets could be short-lived).

3) Announce a specific plan to boost purchases of government bonds. Some economists contend the ECB has been much too timid to date, and needs to buy hundreds of billions of euros worth of government debt to truly buffer Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy from contagion.

This is the favored outcome for markets, but the diciest for Mr. Trichet and the unlikeliest outcome. It would provoke outrage not only within the ECB, but in Germany, whose financial support for EU-led rescues is critical to solving the debt crisis. German finance officials roundly criticized the Fed’s recent expansion of its government bond purchases.

It’s also unlikely that the ECB could come up with a sufficient amount to calm investor nerves.

Mr. Trichet has one more roadblock: his own mandate. The Fed — which has a dual mandate of low inflation and maximum sustainable employment — was able to justify quantitative easing by arguing that U.S. unemployment was too high, and that Fed policy could help bring it down.

The ECB’s sole mandate is price stability, and annual inflation is, at 1.9%, smack dab on the ECB’s target of just under 2%, meaning it has little or no disinflation or deflation justification for making large-scale bond buys.

As J.P. Morgan’s Mr. Fuzesi puts it: “If the ECB were to step up bond purchases in the current environment, it would be monetizing the debt of sovereigns who cannot access capital markets due to concerns about solvency.” If that happens, the ECB risks “making itself subservient to the fiscal authorities.”

[admin]

Jorge sigues negociando GSI? hoy subio 11.72%

[admin]

Las bolsas de EE.UU. cierran con alzas de más de 2% tras buenas noticias en Europa y locales
Por Kristina Peterson

NUEVA YORK (Dow Jones)--Los principales índices de acciones en Estados Unidos cerraron el miércoles con alzas superiores al 2% ante las buenas noticias provenientes de Europa y las últimas cifras económicas locales.

El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones escaló 249,76 puntos, o un 2,27%, a 11255,78, su mayor ascenso desde el 1 de septiembre y su sexto mayor avance de un día este año. El S&P 500 subió 25,52 puntos, o el 2,16%, a 1206,07, y el Compuesto Nasdaq avanzó 51,20, o el 2,05%, a 2549,43.

Las alzas de la sesión revirtieron el débil desempeño de noviembre, mes en el que el Dow cayó un 1%.

Las alzas del miércoles fueron amplias y profundas, con los 30 componentes del Dow, todos los 10 sectores del S&P 500 y la totalidad menos 15 de las 500 acciones del S&P finalizando en territorio positivo. El Índice de Volatilidad de Mercado CBOE, o "índice del miedo" conocido como VIX, cayó un 9,4%.

El ascenso empezó temprano, pero recibió un impulso adicional alrededor del mediodía luego que Reuters informara que Estados Unidos comprometería más dinero para el Fondo Monetario Internacional con el fin de ayudar a un paquete de estabilización más amplio para Europa. Aunque los agentes e inversionistas expresaron posteriormente dudas sobre el informe, las acciones y el euro consiguieron conservar sus alzas.

Los datos económicos positivos fueron encabezados por la creación de 93.000 trabajos en el sector privado durante noviembre, la cifra mensual más alta en tres años.

El gasto de Estados Unidos en proyectos de construcción subió un 0,7% en octubre, y las cifras del sector manufacturero se mantuvieron en línea con las expectativas.

Las cifras económicas divulgadas en Asia y Europa también ayudaron a la percepción alcista. Un informe del sector manufacturero de Reino Unido mostró la mayor lectura en 16 años y las ventas minoristas en Alemania resultaron mejores que lo esperado en octubre. En tanto, en China, dos mediciones separadas de la actividad del sector industrial registraron aumentos en noviembre.

Entre las acciones destacadas, State Street ganó US$1,60, o un 3,7%, a US$44,80 luego que la empresa anunciara el martes que despediría a 1.400 empleados, o cerca de 5% de su fuerza laboral, como parte de un plan de reestructuración a largo plazo.

Bank of America subió 35 centavos, o un 3,2%, a US$11,29 después que los temores por el posible impacto de la filtración de documentos sobre el banco provocara en la víspera una caída de la acción del 3,2%.

Google ganó US$8,64, o un 1,6%, a US$564,35. La firma tecnológica sigue avanzando con sus planes para realizar la mayor adquisición en su historia, al negociar la compra de Groupon, informó The Wall Street Journal.

Además, Starbucks avanzó US$1,10, o un 3,6%, a US$31,70, luego que la cadena de cafeterías indicara que triplicará con creces el número de tiendas que tiene en China continental.

General Motors avanzó 58 centavos, o un 1,7%, a US$34,78 tras reportar que sus ventas en Estados Unidos crecieron un 11% en noviembre frente al mismo mes del año antes.

Ford Motor, por su parte, ascendió 52 centavos, o un 3,3%, a US$16,46, luego que sus ventas crecieran un 24% en noviembre.

[admin]

Esta noticia es horrible para el mercado del cobre. Como es posible que un solo trader tenga casi todo el cobre del LME, el es el que esta haciendo subir el precio del metal.

COMMODITIESDECEMBER 2, 2010
At London Metal Exchange, Mystery Buyer Holds Bulk of Copper
By TATYANA SHUMSKY And CAROLYN CUI

A mystery buyer is apparently holding more than half of the copper stocks at the London Metal Exchange's warehouses, the latest revelation of how a single trader can roil an entire commodities market.

That trader, whom the exchange hasn't identified, owns between 50% and 80% of the 355,750 metric tons held in LME-listed warehouses. This amounts to more than 177,875 metric tons of copper, valued at about $1.5 billion. The exchange first disclosed the large position on Nov. 23 in its daily inventory holder report.

One trader apparently holds between 50%-80% of LME copper inventory. Above, a copper workshop in China.

"It's an awful lot of copper; it's an awful lot to finance," said Charles Swindon, managing director of RJH Trading Ltd., a London metals trading house. The trader's holding accounts for about 1% of all the copper the world will consume this year.

It is unclear when the trader started building the position, but market participants have noted some odd market trends that might be linked to the buying. Speculation on the identity of the trader runs from some soon-to-launch exchange-traded funds to an options trader obligated to deliver a large amount of metal.

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It is unusual in the copper market for one trader to hold such a big supply in exchange warehouses around the world. Copper producers and consumers typically trade the metal through bilateral contracts, leaving the exchange-listed metal the "last resort" for those who want to fill orders tied to futures contracts.

Globally, copper stocks held by all commodity exchanges rose 14% from the end of October to about 620,000 metric tons, though the LME's supplies have declined this year. Most of the LME copper stocks are in the U.S., with New Orleans holding 126,950 tons of copper and St. Louis having 95,825 tons, according to the exchange.

The LME has certain rules to discourage anyone from holding a dominant position, including forcing the trader to lend the copper to the market and limiting the fees the trader can charge.

The LME is enforcing its lending guidelines, said Stephen White, an exchange spokesman.

However, there is some evidence that the large position is raising the cost of the metal. Prices rebounded in recent days despite a stronger U.S. dollar. December copper futures ended Wednesday 3.2% higher, at $3.9460 a pound, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Meanwhile, the copper market has shifted into a unique situation called "backwardation." Usually, it costs less to buy any commodity for immediate delivery than it does to buy a contract that comes due in future months, with the difference reflecting the seller's interim storage costs. But Tuesday, copper to be delivered in December traded at an $89-a-metric-ton premium to metal for delivery three months out, more than double last week's spread.

Analysts are perplexed as to what the trader would gain from holding that much copper. On top of the charges of storage, insurance and interest for any borrowed capital, the value of the copper would fall $89 over three months because of backwardation.

"Unless they are hedged somehow, or expect prices to go even higher," it doesn't make sense to do so, said Wayne Atwell, managing director of Casimir Capital, a hedge fund specializing in natural resources.

Copper traders have been bracing for a metal supply squeeze since October, when three separate companies announced plans for physical-copper exchange-traded funds. These funds would let investors trade shares listed on a stock exchange and are backed by metal up to LME specifications.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s Physical Copper Trust will launch with 61,800 metric tons, while BlackRock Inc.'s iShares Copper Trust will hold 121,200 metric tons. ETF Securities is also starting a fund, but hasn't specified how much copper it will hold. The banks buying the metal for the ETFs could be holding the copper in their own accounts, with the two amounts appearing as the single dominant position.


J.P. Morgan and BlackRock declined to comment. ETF Securities couldn't be reached to comment.

"I just can't see why anyone other than an ETF would want something like that," said a U.S.-based physical trader.

The copper market is no stranger to trading scandals. In 1995, Yasuo Hamanaka, a copper trader at Sumitomo Corp., was alleged to have attempted to corner the copper market. Sumitomo later disclosed it had lost $1.8 billion after copper prices plunged. In 2005, a trader for the State Reserve Bureau of China waged a big bet at the LME on copper prices to fall, but lost about $200 million when markets moved against him. The Chinese government eventually auctioned off a large amount of copper to drive prices down.

[admin]

Al final resulto que todos los bancos, especialmente los Europeos eran muy grandes para caer. El Fed le presto dinero hasta a la abuelita.

Es verdad que no se llora sobre la leche derramada, pero quien se hubiera imaginado que el Fed estaba rescatando a todo el mundo, literalmente.



REVIEW & OUTLOOKDECEMBER 2, 2010
The Fed's Bailout Files
Which banks were too big to fail? All of them.

Lender of last resort indeed. The Federal Reserve pulled back the curtain yesterday on its emergency lending during the financial panic of 2008 and 2009, and the game to play at home with the kids is: Who didn't get a bailout?

If you can find a big financial player who declined the Fed's cash, you're doing better than we did yesterday afternoon.

The documents aren't another WikiLeaks dump but are due to Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who insisted that the Dodd-Frank financial bill require more transparency about how the Fed allocated capital during the panic. The release of this data on some 21,000 Fed transactions over the last three years is one of the rare useful provisions in Dodd-Frank, but kudos to our favorite Socialist for demanding it.

We learn, for example, that the cream of Wall Street received even more multibillion-dollar assistance than previously advertised by either the banks or the Fed. Goldman Sachs used the Primary Dealer Credit Facility 212 times to the tune of nearly $600 billion. Even in Washington, that's still a lot of money. Morgan Stanley used the same overnight lending program 212 times from March 2008 to March 2009. This news makes it impossible to argue that either bank would have survived the storm without the Fed's cash.

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The same goes for General Electric, which from late October to late November 2008 tapped the Fed's Commercial Paper Funding Facility 12 times for more than $15 billion. Thanks to the FDIC's debt-guarantee program, GE also sold $60 billion of government-guaranteed debt (with a balance left of $55 billion). The company finished a close second to Citigroup as the heaviest user of that program from November 2008 to July 2009. GE is lucky it was too big to fail, or it might have failed as smaller business lender CIT did.

The blogosphere was hurling pitchforks yesterday because some foreign banks also took the Fed's money, including such prominent names as UBS, Barclays and BNP Paribas, and even names like Dexia and Natixis that most Americans might confuse with pharmaceuticals marketed on TV. But this was inevitable given the interconnectedness of the global financial system, and the fact that these foreign banks had U.S. subsidiaries. The Fed could not have quelled the panic by offering only U.S. banks access to these loan facilities.

Fed officials were crowing yesterday that it hasn't lost a dime so far on this lending, which reached $3.3 trillion at its peak. The Fed could still lose money on some of the assets it guaranteed from the likes of Bear Stearns, or from the low quality mortgage-backed securities it also bought during the crisis and is still holding. But considering the magnitude of the intervention, taxpayers can consider themselves lucky to have escaped unharmed so far.

While it's interesting to see a fuller picture of how the Fed intervened in the panic, what the documents don't tell us is why. Yes, we know, to stop "systemic risk." But that still doesn't explain specific acts of intervention that may well have exacerbated the panic.

For example, why did then New York Fed President Timothy Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke believe in March 2008 that an also-ran investment bank, Bear Stearns, was a systemic risk?

Why did Messrs. Geithner and Bernanke insist on bailing out AIG, despite apparent resistance within the Fed? The central bank still refuses to release a memo to Mr. Bernanke from the Fed staff, which Senator Jim Bunning has said made the case that an AIG bankruptcy was not a systemic risk. The Fed and other regulators have continued to stonewall document requests on these cases.

Our guess is that this is in part because Messrs. Geithner and Bernanke believe that systemic risk is whatever they say it is, and that they know it when they see it. If Mr. Sanders and other lawmakers are interested in shining more light on the Fed, they might pursue those documents—especially since the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission seems uninterested and may well be a colossal bust.

The authors of Dodd-Frank claim that their bill ends this bailout discretion, but that's not how we or the regulators read it. One task for the new House Republican majority is to explore how to tighten the too-big-to-fail criteria. If there is one overwhelming lesson of the Fed's bailout files, it should be that we never want to do this again.