Miercoles 17/10/18 Minutas del Fed

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Inicios de construcciones de casas en EEUU caen más de lo esperado en septiembre | Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Los inicios de construcciones de casas en Estados Unidos cayeron más de lo esperado en septiembre debido a que la actividad de edificaciones en el sur registraron su mayor baja en casi tres años, probablemente debido al paso del huracán Florence.

Imagen de archivo. Construcción de un proyecto a gran escala de más de 600 viviendas en Oceanside, California, EEUU, 25 de junio de 2018. REUTERS / Mike Blake
Los inicios de construcciones de viviendas cayeron un 5,3 por ciento, a una tasa anual desestacionalizada de 1,201 millones de unidades, el mes pasado, dijo el miércoles el Departamento de Comercio.

En tanto, los permisos de construcciones retrocedieron un 0,6 por ciento, a una tasa de 1,241 millones de unidades, en septiembre, en el segundo declive mensual consecutivo.

Economistas consultados en un sondeo de Reuters proyectaban que los inicios de construcciones de casas bajaran a un ritmo de 1,220 millones de unidades el mes pasado y que los permisos para edificaciones subieran a 1,278 millones de unidades.

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Precios del cobre suben tras datos crédito China

LONDRES (Reuters) - Los precios del cobre subían el miércoles, apoyados por cifras mejores a las previstas en el sistema bancario de China, el mayor consumidor mundial del insumo, pero el avance era limitado por indicios de un alivio en la restricción en la oferta del metal en el país.

Cátodos de cobre en la planta de la compañía Uralelektromed en Verkhnyaya Pyshma, Rusia, oct 17, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
* A las 1143 GMT, el cobre a tres meses en la Bolsa de Metales de Londres (LME) ganaba un 0,48 por ciento a 6.245 dólares la tonelada.

* En septiembre, los bancos chinos extendieron 1,28 billones de yuanes (199.250 millones de dólares) en nuevos créditos. La cifra superó lo esperado por analistas y también el monto del mes previo.

* “Para el cobre, por el lado macro, fue positivo que el dato (chino) fuera ligeramente mejor al previsto”, afirmó Nick Snowdon, analista de Deutsche Bank. “Pero en cuanto a lo físico, (hay) señales algo más débiles en términos de la importación neta china en el corto plazo”.

* El metal al contado en la LME, que a comienzos de mes cotizaba con la mayor prima sobre el contrato a tres meses desde junio de 2016, actualmente opera en un descuento de 12,25 dólares, lo que señala una demanda más floja por el metal de pronta entrega.

* Analistas dijeron que eso indicaba una reducción de los requerimientos de cobre en China tras un reciente déficit del metal rojo.

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Nuevos préstamos de China suben a 1,38 bln yuanes en septiembre, más de lo previsto | Reuters

PEKÍN (Reuters) - Los bancos chinos entregaron 1,38 billones de yuanes (199.250 millones de dólares) en nuevos préstamos netos en yuanes en septiembre, más de lo proyectado por analistas y que el mes anterior.

Foto de archivo: Un cliente sostiene un billete de 100 yuanes en un mercado en Pekín, China, 12 de agosto del 2015. REUTERS/Jason Lee
Analistas consultados en un sondeo de Reuters proyectaban nuevos préstamos en yuanes de 1,36 billones, que se compara con 1,28 billones de yuanes de agosto.

La oferta de dinero ampliada (M2) aumentó un 8,3 por ciento interanual en septiembre, mostraron datos del banco central divulgados el miércoles. Analistas estimaban que el M2 creciera 8,3 por ciento y se compara con el avance de 8,2 por ciento de agosto.

Los préstamos en circulación en yuanes aumentaron un 13,2 por ciento interanual, igualando las expectativas y el incremento de agosto.

En los primeros nueve meses de 2018, los nuevos préstamos bancarios sumaron 13,14 billones de yuanes y se encaminan a anotar un nuevo récord en el año y eclipsar los 13,53 billones de yuanes del año pasado.

El Banco Popular de China ha reducido el encaje bancario para los prestamistas cuatro veces este año y el más reciente recorte entró en efecto el 15 de octubre, inyectando más liquidez para estimular el crédito bancario.

(1 dólar = 6,9258 yuanes)

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Fed Minutes Point to Continued, Gradual Interest-Rate Increases

Federal Reserve officials said they will watch for evidence their moves are keeping economic growth on an even keel

Nick TimiraosOct. 17, 2018 2:04 p.m. ET
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking during a news conference following the Sept. 26 Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting in Washington.
WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve officials signaled they see a strong economy justifying continued interest-rate increases and said they will watch for evidence their moves are keeping economic growth on an even keel, minutes of their September policy meeting showed.

The minutes, released Wednesday after a three-week lag, follow several weeks of effort by Fed officials to emphasize uncertainty about the precise level of interest rates that will neither spur nor slow growth, a destination favored right now by most officials.

The central bank this year has grown increasingly determined to gradually lift rates to such a neutral setting because the unemployment rate is below officials’ estimates of the level consistent with stable inflation and the economy is expanding solidly. The minutes show little consensus so far about what to do after they determine rates have reached neutral.

Officials voted unanimously at their Sept. 25-26 meeting to raise their benchmark rate to a range between 2% and 2.25%. Projections released after the meeting show most officials expected they would need to raise rates one more time this year and around three times in 2019 if the economy performs in line with current forecasts. The projections also revealed most officials believed interest rates over the long-run should settle around 2.75% or 3% in order to balance supply and demand.

The big question is how much higher officials think rates need to go in an environment where the economy is expanding faster than they expect is sustainable over the long run. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, which it sees as a sign of healthy demand, and inflation has held near that target in recent months after undershooting it for years. The Fed wants to avoid economic growth that becomes unsustainable, leading to a boom and then bust.

While a few participants at the meeting argued the economy would require the Fed to raise rates beyond a neutral level to intentionally slow growth and prevent the economy from overheating, a couple said they would want to see more evidence of inflation picking up before endorsing such a stance.

Fed officials also removed a phrase from their postmeeting statement that for years has described their rate stance as “accommodative,” meaning they are pressing on the gas pedal to help stimulate growth.

Dropping the language did not signal that officials believed rates were no longer low enough to spur growth, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said after the meeting. Instead, the change reflected how officials, led by him, have sought to move away from providing overly precise estimates of where such a neutral setting stands given the inherent uncertainty.

“Interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral,” Mr. Powell said at a conference earlier this month. He played down questions about whether policy would need to turn restrictive when he said, “We’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.”

The minutes are the latest piece of communications to mark a shift away from using neutral-rate estimates as an anchor for upcoming policy decisions.

Many participants at the meeting said future changes in interest rates would be guided more by “the evaluation of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook,” the minutes said. “Estimates of the neutral federal funds rate would be only one among many factors that the committee would consider in making its policy decisions.”

New York Fed President John Williams, who has conducted leading research to estimate the real neutral rate of interest, has joined Mr. Powell in downplaying policy makers’ ability to pinpoint such estimates.

Earlier this year, Mr. Williams said such estimates were shining brightly in guiding policy makers, but last month he said now that rates are closer to such a setting, “what appeared to be a bright point of light is really a fuzzy blur.”

The Fed’s rate increases became the center of attention at the White House and on Wall Street after stronger economic data this month prompted investors to take more seriously the central bank’s telegraphed plans to steadily lift rates higher. President Trump blamed the Fed for the market selloff and described the central bank as “crazy” and “out of control.”

Before Mr. Trump, U.S. presidents hadn’t commented publicly on monetary policy in more than 25 years. Mr. Powell and other Fed officials have said they will not be influenced by political pressure, and the minutes didn’t mention Mr. Trump’s comments had made prior to the meeting.

Some officials have upgraded their views about the economy’s growth rate this year, the minutes said. But the minutes didn’t signal major shifts in thinking about the economy’s short- or long-run growth prospects.

Some officials believed tax cuts approved by President Trump last year had boosted investment spending, but officials also said their business contacts had foregone other investment or production opportunities because of uncertainties related to steel and aluminum tariffs imposed this year by Mr. Trump.

Other Fed officials highlighted buoyant markets as another sign of strong growth, despite some stresses in emerging markets that developed this summer. Some officials highlighted potential risks in corporate lending activity, such as for leveraged loans and in lending by financial institutions outside the banking sector.

Just how much farther the Fed raises rates will depend largely on whether inflation behaves as officials expect. Many follow some version of a framework that posits an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, though many say the relationship has weakened in recent decades.

In recent speeches, Mr. Powell has appeared sympathetic to treating

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Oil -3-% debido al alza de inventarios.

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