Lunes 28/01/19 semana del empleo

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Caterpillar says it's seeing lower demand in China, a bad sign for the global economy
PUBLISHED 2 MINS AGO

Thomas Franck
@tomwfranck
CNBC.COM
"Sales in Asia/Pacific declined due to lower demand in China, partially offset by higher demand in a few other countries in the region," the company said in a release.
The company also issued forward guidance range that fell short of Wall Street's earnings expectations on the lower end.
Caterpillar
George Frey | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Construction machinery company Caterpillar said in its quarterly earnings report Monday that demand for its equipment in China declined in the fourth quarter, a bad omen for the global economy from the industrial powerhouse.
"Sales in Asia/Pacific declined due to lower demand in China, partially offset by higher demand in a few other countries in the region," the company said in its earnings press release. "Unfavorable currency impacts also contributed to the sales decline."
Caterpillar, one of the largest equipment manufacturers in the world, is considered a bellwether for global trade given the company's exposure to overseas markets. Caterpillar gets 59 percent of its sales from outside of the U.S. and nearly a quarter of its revenue from the Asia Pacific region, according to figures form Goldman Sachs last year



The company also issued forward guidance range that fell short of Wall Street's earnings expectations on the lower end. It expects earnings per share for December 2019 in a range between $11.75 and $12.75 versus FactSet consensus expectations of $12.73.
The stock fell more than 5.5 percent in premarket trading Monday. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell to new lows after Caterpillar's comments.
"Our outlook assumes a modest sales increase based on the fundamentals of our diverse end markets as well as the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment," Caterpillar Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby said in the press release. "We will continue to focus on operational excellence, including cost discipline, while investing in expanded offerings and services to drive long-term profitable growth."
The Illinois-based company's role as a global manufacturing leader can result in big swings to the major U.S. stock indexes. For example, when Chief Financial Officer Brad Halverson said last April that the company's first-quarter adjusted profits per share would be the "high-water mark," Caterpillar shares sank 6.2 percent and helped drag the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 400 points.
Caterpillar said total sales for its Construction Industries segment were $5.705 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, a 7.7 percent increase from the same period one year ago. The company reported total sales of $14.3 billion in the fourth quarter and $54.7 billion for the full year; earnings per share of $2.55 fell well short of expectations of $2.99 per share.
Caterpillar will host a earnings call at 11 a.m. ET, when company management will detail its results and 2019 outlook. It will also field questions from Wall Street analysts.

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-243

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Oil down 52.08

Au down 1,303.70

Yields down 2.749%

Europa a la baja.

Ag down 15.63

Cu down 2.69

[admin]

Compre CAT y ya esta con mas del 8% de ganancia. Es a largo plazo.

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-315.49

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Ni día también baja sus estimados y cae profundamente.

-337.65

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Copper January 28,09:59
Bid/Ask 2.6949 - 2.6954
Change -0.0217 -0.80%
Low/High 2.6579 - 2.7278
Charts

Nickel January 28,09:59
Bid/Ask 5.3488 - 5.3511
Change -0.0318 -0.59%
Low/High 5.3178 - 5.4078
Charts

Aluminum January 28,09:59
Bid/Ask 0.8373 - 0.8380
Change -0.0178 -2.08%
Low/High 0.8354 - 0.8553
Charts

Zinc January 28,09:59
Bid/Ask 1.2047 - 1.2053
Change +0.0033 +0.27%
Low/High 1.1781 - 1.2137
Charts

Lead January 28,09:59
Bid/Ask 0.9474 - 0.9485
Change -0.0033 -0.34%
Low/High 0.9435 - 0.9597
Charts

Uranium Jan 21, 2019
Ux U308 price: 28.80
Change from

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Russell 2000 1468.94 -13.91 -0.94%
Global Dow 2894.82 -22.45 -0.77%
Japan: Nikkei 225 20649.00 -124.56 -0.60%
Stoxx Europe 600 354.40 -3.44 -0.96%
UK: FTSE 100 6746.40 -62.82 -0.92%
CURRENCIES10:08 AM EST 1/28/2019
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1436 0.0023
Yen (USD/JPY) 109.27 -0.27
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3165 -0.0035
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7174 -0.0006
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9912 -0.0020
WSJ Dollar Index 88.99 -0.01
GOVERNMENT BONDS10:08 AM EST 1/28/2019
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 6/32 2.739
German 10 Year -4/32 0.209
Japan 10 Year 1/32 -0.001
FUTURES9:58 AM EST 1/28/2019
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 51.95 -1.74 -3.24%
Brent Crude 60.06 -1.58 -2.56%
Gold 1307.6 3.4 0.26%
Silver 15.690 -0.009 -0.06%
E-mini DJIA 24343 -353 -1.43%
E-mini S&P 500 2631

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El cierre del gobierno disminuirá 0.4% del PBI en el primer trimestre.

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U.S. Stocks Slide on Caterpillar, Nvidia Warnings: Markets Wrap

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Range:
1
LAST CHANGE % CHG
DJIA 24359.85 -377.35 -1.53%
Nasdaq 7045.00 -119.86 -1.67%
S&P 500 2628.44 -36.32 -1.36%
Russell 2000 1465.53 -17.33 -1.17%
Global Dow 2891.23 -26.04 -0.89%
Japan: Nikkei 225 20649.00 -124.56 -0.60%
Stoxx Europe 600 354.38 -3.46 -0.97%
UK: FTSE 100 6747.10 -62.12 -0.91%
CURRENCIES12:13 PM EST 1/28/2019
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1433 0.0020
Yen (USD/JPY) 109.25 -0.30
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3163 -0.0037
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7164 -0.0016
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9914 -0.0018
WSJ Dollar Index 89.01 0.00
GOVERNMENT BONDS12:13 PM EST 1/28/2019
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 7/32 2.734
German 10 Year -4/32 0.209
Japan 10 Year 1/32 -0.001
FUTURES12:03 PM EST 1/28/2019
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 51.52 -2.17 -4.04%
Brent Crude 59.65 -1.99 -3.23%
Gold 1308.5 4.3 0.33%
Silver 15.750 0.051 0.32%
E-mini DJIA 24289 -407 -1.65%
E-mini S&P 500 2623

[admin]

U.S. Stocks Fall as Earnings Woes Raise Fears Over Growth

Weaker-than-expected guidance from tech and industrial companies set tone for losses

By Georgi Kantchev and Akane Otani
Updated Jan. 28, 2019 11:24 a.m. ET
U.S. stocks slid Monday as disappointing earnings and forecasts from bellwether industrial and technology companies sparked fresh worries about global economic growth.

Lackluster economic data out of China and the eurozone in recent weeks have painted a picture of decelerating growth around the world, which many analysts say sits at odds with the rally in global stocks over the past month.

The latest flurry of earnings-related news added to investors’ sense of unease. Caterpillar shares shed 7.8% after the manufacturer, hurt by slowing growth in China and rising costs, set lower-than-expected profit targets for 2019. Nvidia shares slipped 13%, stung by weaker guidance for the fourth quarter.

U.S. companies are still expected to report solid growth for the final quarter of 2018. With results in from roughly a fifth of S&P 500 firms, about 70% of corporations have posted better-than-expected earnings so far this reporting season, according to FactSet.

Still, anxiety about the pace at which growth is expected to slow this year has reeled in optimism among many investors. Caterpillar’s warning rippled throughout the industrial sector Monday, sending shares of other manufacturers lower.

Engine maker Cummins fell 3.1%, while 3M lost 2% and General Electric declined 3.4%.

“More volatility is in store for markets especially given the slower growth outlook for the global economy,” said Ann-Katrin Petersen, investment strategist at Allianz Global investors.

Later this week, investors will get a look at the health of major technology firms when Apple, Amazon.com, Microsoft and Facebook report quarterly results.

Investors are also keeping tabs on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold short-term interest rates steady at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting this week.

Caterpillar set lower-than-expected profit targets for 2019. The company’s warning rippled throughout the industrial sector Monday, sending shares of other manufacturers lower.
Caterpillar set lower-than-expected profit targets for 2019. The company’s warning rippled throughout the industrial sector Monday, sending shares of other manufacturers lower. Photo: Richard Drew/Associated Press
“Investors think the Fed will stay where it is for now which is positive for sentiment,” said Craig Callahan, president of investment firm Icon Advisers.

Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1%, following a mostly downbeat session in Asia.

Traders were looking to the latest moves on the U.K.’s planned exit from the European Union. The British parliament is scheduled to vote on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s “Plan B” for Brexit on Tuesday after lawmakers earlier this month soundly rejected her initial deal with the EU.

The British pound was down 0.3% against the U.S. dollar.

“The outcome of tomorrow’s vote and its implications for the Brexit debate remain uncertain…some position paring is still possible,” analysts at UniCredit said in a note to clients.

Shares in Russian aluminum producer Rusal rallied in Hong Kong after the U.S. Treasury Department on Sunday removed the company from its sanctions list. The move came after blacklisted billionaire Oleg Deripaska delivered on a promised plan to divest his majority ownership stake, the Treasury said.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average finished down 0.6% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was flat.

Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com

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https://lta.reuters.com/articulo/mercad ... AKCN1PM1U4

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https://lta.reuters.com/articulo/caterp ... AKCN1PM1Y3

[RCHF]

Si no hemos retrocedido, parece, por Juan Carlos Odar

“Los únicos impuestos que no recaudaron más en el 2018 fueron los aranceles y el ISC combustibles”, señala el editor central de Economía & Negocios
Pago de impuestos
"La última vez que tuvimos recaudaciones similares por IR e IGV fue en el 2009".

Juan Carlos Odar Zagaceta
28.01.2019 / 08:00 am
Tras haber llegado a 16,6% del PBI en el 2014, los ingresos tributarios del Gobierno Nacional, expresados con relación a la producción, decrecieron en los años siguientes, hasta 13% del PBI en el 2017. En el 2018, este indicador logró una tibia recuperación y llegó a 14,1% del PBI, su mayor valor en 3 años.

De hecho, el 2018 casi todos los impuestos incrementaron su importancia relativa frente al PBI. En esa medición, el IGV a productos importados fue el de mayor expansión (subió 0,3% del PBI), seguido por el impuesto a la renta de personas jurídicas, la regularización del impuesto a la renta y la reducción en el monto de devoluciones (cada uno aportó un incremento de 0,2% del PBI a la recaudación) y el impuesto a la renta de personas naturales, el IGV de origen interno, el ISC a productos diferentes de los combustibles y el resto de impuestos en conjunto (como por ejemplo, el ITF); cada uno de estos componentes aumentó en 0,1% del PBI.

Las únicas excepciones a esta expansión generalizada fueron los aranceles (que mantuvieron el nivel del 2017) y el ISC a los combustibles, que decreció marginalmente.

Comparemos para el caso del Impuesto a la Renta (IR) y del IGV -los dos componentes que más aportan a la recaudación total- los resultados del año pasado con los del 2014. Para el primer caso, el ratio en relación al PBI decreció de 7% a 5,6% en cuatro años, mientras que el segundo cayó de 8,8% a 8,2%. Es decir, el ratio de recaudación del IGV es 6,5% menor que en 2014, mientras que el del IR es casi 20% menor.

Los componentes del IGV muestran caídas similares a su total (6,1% para el componente interno, 7,1% para el importado). Para el IR, las variaciones muestran una dispersión mayor: mientras la regularización ha crecido, la presión tributaria de personas naturales ha caído 10,4% y la de personas jurídicas lo ha hecho en 28,9%. Y es justo en este último componente donde más modificaciones de tasas ha habido en los últimos años.

La última vez que tuvimos recaudaciones similares por IR e IGV fue en el 2009. Pero desde entonces, el aporte del IGV a la recaudación ha subido (de 56,1% a 58,2%), mientras que el del IR a empresas ha caído (de 23,3% a 22%). Si en estos años no hemos retrocedido, por lo menos lo parece.

(Sobre la columna del lunes pasado, me hicieron notar –y lo agradezco– que la posibilidad de aportes voluntarios al fondo para acelerar la jubilación no es para el régimen extraordinario, sino para el regular. Es decir, la trampa tiene un efecto adverso sobre el sistema incluso mayor que el que advertía).