Jueves 01/08/19 PMI, ISM

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 26916.30 52.03 0.19
S&P 500 2987.11 6.73 0.23
Nasdaq Composite 8229.49 54.07 0.66
Japan: Nikkei 225 21540.99 19.46 0.09
UK: FTSE 100 7550.66 -36.12 -0.48
Crude Oil Futures 57.24 -1.34 -2.29
Gold Futures 1415.40 -22.40 -1.56
Yen 108.54 -0.24 -0.22
Euro 1

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 26944.60 80.33 0.30
S&P 500 2990.18 9.80 0.33
Nasdaq Composite 8235.87 60.45 0.74
Japan: Nikkei 225 21540.99 19.46 0.09
UK: FTSE 100 7555.33 -31.45 -0.41
Crude Oil Futures 56.87 -1.71 -2.92
Gold Futures 1417.90 -19.90 -1.38
Yen 108.50 -0.28 -0.26
Euro 1.1044

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https://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/

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Pedidos de subsidios por desempleo suben a ritmo moderado en EEUU

Foto de archivo: Personas esperan en la feria de trabajos TechFair LA en Los Angeles, California, Estados Unidos, enero 26 de 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - El número de estadounidenses que presentó pedidos de subsidios por desempleo aumentó la semana pasada, pero la tendencia en las solicitudes siguió siendo consistente con condiciones ajustadas del mercado laboral.

Las solicitudes iniciales de beneficios por desempleo aumentaron en 8.000 a una cifra desestacionalizada de 215.000 en la semana finalizada el 27 de julio, dijo el jueves el Departamento del Trabajo. Los datos de la semana anterior fueron revisados para mostrar 1.000 pedidos más que los reportados previamente.

Economistas encuestados por Reuters habían previsto que las solicitudes se incrementarían a 214.000 en la última semana. El Departamento del Trabajo indicó que las cifras de la semana pasada no incluyen estimaciones.

Reporte de Lucia Mutikani. Editado en español por Marion Giraldo

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Wall Street abre con pocos cambios, atención de mercados pasa a resultados corporativos mixtos

Foto de archivo. Operadores en el piso de la bolsa de valores de Nueva York, EEUU. 12 de julio de 2019. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson.
(Reuters) - Las acciones estadounidenses cotizaban con pocos cambios el jueves, ya que la atención de los mercados se volcó a una serie de resultados corporativos dispares tras el mensaje de cautela de la Reserva Federal sobre las tasas de interés que llevó a Wall Street a sufrir sus mayores bajas desde mayo en la sesión previa.

* En los primeros minutos tras la apertura, el promedio industrial Dow Jones subía 15,59 puntos, o 0,06%, a 26.879,86 unidades; mientras que el índice S&P 500 operaba con una baja marginal de 0,06 puntos, o casi 0%, a 2.980,32 unidades.

* En tanto, el índice compuesto ganaba 15,14 puntos, o 0,19%, a 8.190,56 unidades.

[admin]

Actividad fabril china se contrae de nuevo en julio, presión baja levemente: Caixin PMI
Foto de archivo. empleados trabajan en al línea de producción de lentes de cámaras para teléfonos celulares en una fábrica en Lianyungang, China. 30 de abril de 2019. Imagen entregada por un tercero. China Daily via REUTERS.
PEKÍN (Reuters) - La presión sobre las fábricas chinas se alivió un poco en julio, gracias a medidas gubernamentales para impulsar el crecimiento, pero la actividad manufacturera general siguió contraída por la guerra comercial con Estados Unidos, que redujo los pedidos para la exportación, indicó un sondeo privado el jueves.

Las lecturas estuvieron bastante en línea con un indicador oficial que mostró que la actividad fabril se contrajo el mes pasado a un ritmo más bajo del esperado.

El Índice de Gerentes de Compras de Manufactura Caixin/ Markit (PMI) subió en julio a 49,9 desde el 49,4 en junio, justo por debajo de la marca de 50 que divide expansión de contracción. La lectura estuvo algo por encima de las expectativas de un 49,6 de economistas consultados por Reuters.

PUBLICIDAD




“La economía manufacturera china mostró signos de recuperación en julio. Políticas como la reducción de impuestos y tasas diseñadas para respaldar la economía surtieron efecto”, escribió Zhengsheng Zhong, director de análisis macroeconómico del CEBM Group, en una nota que acompañó al reporte.

El moderado repunte reflejado en el sondeo se debió en parte a una recuperación en la demanda a nivel local, con un crecimiento marginal de la producción fabril en julio tras un breve declive en el mes previo.

Los nuevos pedidos también volvieron a territorio expansivo, a 50,2, pero siguieron muy flojos en comparación con el promedio histórico.

La debilidad de las condiciones se vio destacada por la nueva contracción de los pedidos de exportación en julio, en medio del deterioro de la demanda global.

Aunque el declive fue menos severo que en junio, el panorama seguía nublado, ya que los participantes en el sondeo citaron la disputa comercial entre Washington y Pekín como un factor que estaba reduciendo las ventas a clientes foráneos.

Reporte de Lusha Zhang, Roxanne Liu y Ryan Woo; editado en español por Carlos Serrano
Nuestros Estándares:Los principios Thomson Reuters
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[Carlos38]

si la produccion en China se contrae, los metales básicos seguirán bajando.
Ayer salieron los resultados de Trevali Q2 Perkoa corriendo con pérdidas, Rosh Pina apena sosteniendose, Caribú corriendo con pérdidas y
Santander con ganancias aceptables, con una mejora significativa en costos, pero con una rentabilidad negativa.
Que opinión les merece, ahora esta a 0.18

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 27173.01 308.74 1.15
S&P 500 3012.97 32.59 1.09
Nasdaq Composite 8307.45 132.04 1.62
Japan: Nikkei 225 21540.99 19.46 0.09
UK: FTSE 100 7581.48 -5.30 -0.07
Crude Oil Futures 56.81 -1.77 -3.02
Gold Futures 1428.90 -8.90 -0.62
Yen 108.30 -0.48 -0.44
Euro 1.1068 -0.0010 -0.09

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Dow jumps 300 points on hopes the Fed will follow through with a second rate cut
PUBLISHED 8 HOURS AGO UPDATED 1 MIN AGO

Fred Imbert
@foimbert
CNBC.COM
Former Atlanta Fed Chief Lockhart: The Fed is setting policy for Main Street not Wall Street

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates for a second time later this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 300 points while the S&P 500 traded 1.1% higher. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.6%.
Tech shares led the rally as the sector gained 2.2%. Western Digital was the best-performing stock in the sector, jumping 6.8%. Other tech-related stocks like Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet also traded higher.

Hopes for another rate cut increased after IHS Markit's U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped in July to its lowest level since September 2009. IHS said employment in the sector fell to its lowest level since 2013. Muted client demand and a slower increase in production weighed down the manufacturing space.
The Institute for Supply Management's reading on the manufacturing sector fell to 51.2 in July, its lowest level since August 2016. Economists polled by Reuters expected a print of 52.
The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday — its first cut in more than a decade — citing "global developments" along with "muted inflation" as reasons for easing monetary conditions.
But Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters in a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision that the central bank's rate cut was a "midcycle adjustment," hinting that further rate cuts later this year were not a sure thing.
That comment led to a 333-point drop on the Dow, its biggest one-day drop since May 31. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, to end July.
A trader wearing 2018 glasses works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, Dec. 29, 2017.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A trader wearing 2018 glasses works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, Dec. 29, 2017.
"Yesterday was the perfect example of expectations being misaligned with reality," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. "The Fed did exactly what it should have done. An insurance cut is exactly that."
"The Fed delivered a message saying the market may have been ahead of itself pricing in so many rate cuts," he said.
President Donald Trump went after the Fed once again following Powell's comments, saying the chairman "let us down" by not clearly signaling more rate cuts.
The Fed operates independently of the White House. Powell said Wednesday the central bank would never move rates because of political factors or to prove its independence.
Thursday marked the first trading day of August, a month that has not been kind to Wall Street. Since 1950, August has been the second-worst month for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac. Over that time, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 0.1% in August.

—CNBC's Sam Meredith contributed to this report.

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Similar 'adjustments' by the Federal Reserve in the 1990s led to boom times for stocks
PUBLISHED 56 MINS AGO

Yun Li
@YunLi626
CNBC.COM
This week's rate cut, the first in more than a decade, was reminiscent of the Fed's insurance easing episodes in the 1990s, Wall Street economists say.
The cuts in 1996 and 1998 managed to reignite the economy and drive the S&P 500 more than 20% higher within a year, CNBC analysis found.
Using Kensho, a hedge fund analytics tool, CNBC found that major stock averages skyrocketed following the initial rate cuts in the 1990s.
Stocks rebounded on Thursday as traders reassessed their bearish outlook.
Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, July 31, 2019.
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, July 31, 2019.
Two words from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell — "midcycle adjustment" — may have briefly roiled financial markets, but the last two times the central bank adjusted its policy, the markets did just fine.
The first rate cut in more than a decade should be distinguished from "the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle," the Fed chief said on Wednesday as stocks cratered.
The move was aimed at insuring against downside risks, including trade tensions and slowing global growth. Wall Street economists say it was reminiscent of the Fed's insurance easing episodes in the 1990s. The cuts then managed to reignite the economy and drive the S&P 500 more than 20% higher within a year after the first move, CNBC analysis found.


In 1995-1996 and 1998, the Alan Greenspan-led Fed slashed rates three times, a total of 75 basis points, during both periods to combat economic downturn and successfully prolonged the expansion that ended up the second longest in history. Those rate cuts were used as insurance against risks stemming from Mexican and Russian default and collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.
A CNBC analysis using Kensho, a hedge fund analytics tool, found that major stock averages skyrocketed following start of the midcycle adjustments in the 1990s. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 20.5% and 23.5% respectively on average one year after the first cuts. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite soared a whopping 39%.
Safe-haven Treasurys sold off in the meantime, with futures on the 10-year note losing more than 6% in the one year after the first cuts in 1995 and 1998. Gold performance was flat back then, whereas the greenback rose more than 5% on average.
"After other 'midcycle adjustments,' presumably referencing 1995 and 1998, the Fed was actually able to subsequently raise rates," Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist said in a note. "[Powell's] point was more that such 'adjustments' have the potential to put the economy on a firmer footing, perhaps warranting higher rates in the future."
The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter point Wednesday, the first rate cut by the central bank since December 2008. Powell cautioned against assuming that this week's cut is the beginning of the cycles that happened in the past.
Those comments from Powell caused the Dow to drop more than 300 points on Wednesday. But perhaps traders were reassessing the move on Thursday as stocks bounced back with the Dow up nearly 200 points.
"The Chair was trying to point to the insurance cutting episodes of 1995 and 1998, where the committee reduced the policy rate 75bp on two separate occasions," Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays said in a note. "We read his comment that he does not see a prolonged rate cutting cycle was clearly related to recession risks and the likelihood the Fed has taken the first step that will end at the zero lower bound."
To be sure, there are still key differences between now and then that could diminish the impact of a midcycle adjustment. For one, the current expansion is now in the 11th year, the longest in U.S. history, which might need a little more stimulus than before.
"With the 1995 analogy of a midcycle cut in rates, people have to remember that it was just four years into an economic expansion, not 10 plus that we are in now," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. "Hope springs eternal when faith in the Fed is as high as it was."

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Más tarifas para China
LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 26570.67 -293.60 -1.09
S&P 500 2946.15 -34.23 -1.15
Nasdaq Composite 8083.38 -92.04 -1.13
Japan: Nikkei 225 21540.99 19.46 0.09
UK: FTSE 100 7584.87 -1.91 -0.03
Crude Oil Futures 53.98 -4.60 -7.85
Gold Futures 1452.50 14.70 1.02
Yen 107.38 -1.40 -1.28
Euro 1.1088

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Petróleo cae 5%
LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 53.98 -4.60 -7.85
Brent Crude Futures 60.56 -4.49 -6.90
Gold Futures 1452.30 14.50 1.01
Silver Futures 16.330 -0.075 -0.46
DJIA Futures 26595 -260 -0.97
S&P 500 Futures 2954

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Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1086 0.0009 0.08
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 107.41 -1.37 -1.26
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2151 -0.0010 -0.08
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9900 -0.0039 -0.39
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.8987 0.0144 0.21
U.S. Dollar Index 98.38

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Yields debajo del 2%
YIELD(%) YIELD CHG
U.S. 10 Year 1.891 -0.124
Germany 10 Year -0.448 -0.010
U.K. 10 Year 0.595 -0.016
Japan 10 Year -0.131 0.023
Australia 10 Year 1.221 0.021
China 10 Year 3

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Oil plunges 7.9% after Trump adds tariffs on China, raising fears of a global economic slowdown
PUBLISHED 57 MINS AGO UPDATED 5 MINS AGO

Maggie Fitzgerald
@mkmfitzgerald
CNBC.COM
Oil dropped on Thursday after President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs of 10% on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese goods would be added in September.
WTI crude fell 7.9% to $53.95.
Earlier Thursday, oil fell for the first time in six days after the Federal Reserve dampened hopes of further interest rate cuts.
Trump: US will impose 10% tariffs on $300B in Chinese goods on Sept. 1
President Donald Trump speaks to the media before departing the White House en route West Virginia in Washington, July 24, 2019.
Crude oil plunged on concerns the global economy would weaken further after President Donald Trump ended a tariff ceasefire with China. The president said additional tariffs of 10% on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese goods would be added in September.
Futures for WTI crude dropped 7.9% to $53.95. WTI broke a 5-day win streak with its worst daily performance since November 2018.


"Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!" Trump said in a tweet on Thursday.
Although the trade war with China has been going on for over a year, in May, President Trump hiked tariffs to 25% from 10% on $250 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods.
Trade talks resumed this week in Shanghai and although the White House called the talks "constructive" Trump said "sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing" which caused him to impose new tariffs.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, also fell more than 6% to $60.67 following Trump's tweets.
Earlier on Thursday, oil was down because the Federal Reserve dampened hopes for a string of interest rate cuts. The Fed lowered interest rates 25 basis points on Wednesday but did not signal it was entering a deep easing cycle.