Lunes 13/1210 Semana del Fed, ventas retail, prod. industria

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Eventos economicos

Lunes

No hay indicadores el Lunes, entre los mas importantes de la semana tenemos el PPI, los inventarios de negocios, las ventas retail y la decision del Fed el Martes, el CPI, la produccion industrial, indice de las casas, indice manufacturero de NY, inicios de casas, inventarios de petroleo, sondeo de Philadelphia y solicitudes de desempleo y el Viernes los indicadores lideres. Semana cargada de datos economicos que van a mover al mercado.

4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:30 AM ET


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET

3-Yr Note Settlement

10-Yr Note Settlement

30-Yr Bond Settlement


Bank Reserve Settlement


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET


Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET


Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET


Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Weekly Bill Settlement

52-Week Bill Settlement


Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Current Account
8:30 AM ET


Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

Quadruple Witching


Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

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La extension del recorte de impuestos de Bush pasa a votacion en el Senado el Martes y despues a la Casa de Representantes donde los democratas tienen planeado bloquear la propuesta. Los democratas quieren subirle los impuestos a los que mas ganan (duenios de pequenios negocios ademas de millonarios y billonarios)

Se espera un crecimiento en las ventas retail de 0.8% y 0.6% son autos y repuestos.

Tambien se espera un crecimiento en los inicios de casas.

Best Buy, General Mills, Federal Express y RIMM reportan utilidades. Oracle reporta el Jueves.

Spotlight on Next Week: Hurdle on Tax Deal, Earnings, Data

By John Kell

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has set a procedural vote Monday on the tax-cut deal struck by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans, and the bill could clear the Senate as early as Tuesday, according to Senate aides. The bill would then need to be approved by the House, where Democrats have urged their leaders to block action on it unless changes are made to remove tax benefits for the wealthy.

The Department of Commerce’s retail-sales report for November is expected to show growth of 0.8%, and 0.6% excluding motor vehicles and parts, according to Briefing.com. The results come after strong October growth, as consumers become more confident about the economic climate, although high unemployment remains a concern.

Housing starts and building permits data for November are due out Thursday, with both metrics expected to report an increase from October’s disappointing showing. Still, housing starts are at extremely low levels and the outlook is still murky amid high levels of unsold new homes.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index, a measure of the price level of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by consumers, is again projected to inch up in November, in what would be the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

Best Buy, FedEx, General Mills Inc. and Research in Motion are among the companies set to report their latest quarterly results next week. All four companies are expected to report revenue and profit growth from a year ago, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

Wall Street expects BlackBerry maker RIM, which is set to report Thursday, to post the most impressive growth. The company issued strong guidance for the fiscal third quarter in November, on top of stout second-quarter results, easing fears the company is buckling under intense competition from Apple Inc.’s iPhone and smartphones that run on Google Inc.’s Android operating system.

Oracle will announce its fiscal second-quarter results Thursday, in the first financial results since the business-software company won a record judgment against SAP. In November, a federal jury said Oracle’s archrival must pay Oracle $1.3 billion in damages for copyright infringement. Meanwhile, Oracle’s latest-quarter performance will likely to have been boosted by continued strength in software and an updated line of hardware products from its January acquisition of Sun Microsystems.

The Irish opposition party Fine Gael said it will discuss its position on the country’s EUR67.5 billion aid package at a meeting of senior party figures next week. Ireland’s parliament will vote on it Wednesday, Prime Minister Brian Cowen said Thursday. He said the package negotiated by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union is in the nation’s best interest.

Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, Thursday called for European governments to agree to a limited change to the European Union treaty next week that will allow the creation of a permanent mechanism to bail out troubled EU economies. He said he believed European leaders would do “whatever it takes” to ensure the financial stability of the euro region.

The council of cash-strapped Harrisburg, the capital of Pennsylvania, is expected to vote on the city’s $57 million 2011 budget next week. Mayor Linda Thompson last month presented a budget that kept property taxes flat and is lower than the $65 million spending plan enacted for this year. Harrisburg earlier this week disclosed officials mistakenly failed to fully budget its general obligation debt for 2011 and currently don’t have enough to make the next payments due in March.

Following the Italian Parliament’s approval of EUR25 billion in budget cuts the next two years, the government of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi faces a confidence vote in Parliament Tuesday that could bring down his government and pave the way for early elections in the spring. This week’s approval of Italy’s two-year spending budget comes at a pivotal moment, placing Italy’s fiscal house in order as lawmakers brace for political turbulence in the weeks ahead.

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El Primer Ministro de Portugal dice que ese pais no necesita ayuda del FMI.

El dolar deberia ganar ante los buenos datos economicos de US y la posible accion de China por desacelerar su economia.

Obama estara en la cumbre de negocios reunido con CEOs el dia Miercoles.

Dos bancos Americanos caen, ya son 151.

OPEC mantuvo la cuota de petroleo estable.

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ACTUALIZA3-A.Saudí ve rango crudo 70-80 dlr,OPEP mantiene bombeo
sábado 11 de diciembre de 2010 20:15 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+]
1 de 1Tamaño CompletoPor Amena Bakr y Hugh Bronstein
QUITO (Reuters) - Arabia Saudita, el mayor productor de la OPEP, dijo el sábado que estaba a favor de un rango de entre 70 y 80 dólares por barril para el petróleo, manteniendo una política de hace dos años que calma los temores a que Riad deje que los precios se salgan de control y frenen la recuperación económica mundial.

El ministro de Petróleo saudí, Ali al-Naimi, dijo a reporteros en una reunión de la OPEP en Quito: "70-80 dólares es un buen precio".

La Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) acordó, como se esperaba, dejar la producción estable, a pesar de una reciente alza del precio del crudo a 90 dólares el barril.

Con la próxima reunión de la OPEP prevista para el 2 de junio, los mercados pueden probar ahora la determinación de Arabia Saudita de mantener los precios por debajo de 80 dólares.

"El verdadero asunto es si habrá oferta adicional", dijo Lawrence Eagles, jefe de inverstigación petrolera de JP Morgan en Nueva York. "El ministro Naimi dijo que 80 era la parte alta del rango; veamos si a eso le siguen más suministros", añadió.

El crudo estadounidense cerró a 87,79 dólares el barril el viernes tras tocar un máximo de dos años de 90,76 dólares a inicios de esta semana.

Arabia Saudita, el productor más influyente en la OPEP, es probable que enfrente ante cualquier cambio de política laoposición de otros miembros, que argumentan que la demanda no es suficientemente fuerte como para justificar más crudo y que los especuladores son responsables del alza de los precios.

Venezuela llamó por un precio de 100 dólares el barril y dijo que la OPEP no debería aumentar la producción durante el 2011.

"Nosotros creemos que el mercado debería compensar los altos costos de la producción. Parece que 100 dólares es un precio adecuado", dijo el ministro de Energía de Venezuela, Rafael Ramírez.
El ministro de Petróleo iraní, Massoud Mirkazemi, dijo que la demanda de crudo mundial "no era buena" y que "los precios nominales son buenos, los precios reales no lo son".

"Cuando Venezuela dice que 100 dólares son adecuados e Irán está sosteniendo que la demanda es débil mientras se dispara, pienso que ellos (los saudíes) no quieren una confrontación y que silenciosamente suministrarán más al mercado", dijo Edward Morse, director gerente de Credit Suisse en Nueva York.

SUMINISTRO SUFICIENTE

La OPEP acordó su mayor recorte de suministro a fines de 2008 después de que el preció se desplomara de 147 dólares a alrededor de 33 dólares debido a una caída de la demanda por la recesión económica. Desde entonces no ha cambiado su política de bombeo.

Muchos en la OPEP sostienen que los suministros son suficientes y que sólo aumentarán el suministro para satisfacer la demanda adicional.

"Una vez que hay una escasez en el mercado, o una vez que sentimos que hay una escasez en el mercado, por supuesto que aumentaremos la producción pero no está sólo en función del precio", dijo Shokri Ghanem, presidente de la Corporación Nacional de Petróleo de Libia.

Los inventarios que mantienen las naciones industrializadas de la OCDE en 60 días de demanda futura.

Pero la Agencia Internacional de Energía, que asesora de los países consumidores de crudo, dijo el viernes que la demanda mundial, impulsada por un clima frío de invierno anticipado, está creciendo más rápidamente de lo esperado.

(Reporte adicional de Santiago Silva, Robert Campbell, Daniel Wallis, escrito por Richard Mably; Editado en español por Marcel Deza)

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Perú da luz verde a ampliación 1.000 mln dlr de Shougang Hierro
sábado 11 de diciembre de 2010 19:43 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] LIMA (Reuters) - El Gobierno peruano dijo el sábado que dio luz verde al proyecto de ampliación de la mina de hierro de Shougang Perú, con el que la empresa ampliaría su producción a 10 millones de toneladas anuales tras una inversión de 1.000 millones de dólares.
Shougang Hierro Perú, la principal productora de ese metal en el país, extrajo 4,2 millones de toneladas el año pasado, según cifras oficiales.

La firma, subsidiaria de la estatal china Shougang Group, opera su mina en Marcona, en el sur del país.

El Ministerio de Energía y Minas dijo en un comunicado que aprobó el estudio de impacto ambiental presentado por Shougang, por lo que la compañía puede avanzar con su plan de ampliación, que demoraría 24 meses.

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Porbablemente las ventas retail subieron o.6%. Otros reportes mostraran que la produccion industrial y la construccion de casas mejoro, mientras el precio del costo de vida se mantuvo estable.

Se espera que la confianza del consumidor llegue a sus niveles mas altos en Diciembre.


Retail Sales Probably Rose in November as Consumers Boosted U.S. Recovery
By Shobhana Chandra - Dec 12, 2010 12:01 AM ET

Chains like Macy's and Target lured customers with discounts during the Thanksgiving weekend. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

Retail sales probably climbed in November for a fifth consecutive month as Americans began their holiday shopping, showing consumers are playing a bigger role in the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report this week.

The projected 0.6 percent gain would follow a 1.2 percent October increase in purchases, according to the median of 62 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures Dec. 14. Other reports may show industrial production and homebuilding rebounded, while the cost of living held steady.

Chains like Target Corp. and Macy’s Inc. lured customers with discounts during the Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional kick-off to the busiest sales season of the year. While the world’s largest economy is speeding up heading into 2011, high unemployment and the risk of a prolonged drop in prices remain concerns for Federal Reserve policy makers meeting this week.

“The holiday season is running at a pretty strong pace,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “There’s a broad-based uptick in sales helped by aggressive discounts. The economy is improving but there are still many hurdles, such as the weak labor market.”

The National Retail Federation has forecast November- December holiday sales will rise by 2.3 percent from a year ago, the most since 2006. A Bloomberg survey taken Dec. 2 to Dec. 8 showed economists raised projections for consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy, to 2.6 percent for next year, up from their 2.3 percent estimate the prior month.

Confidence Improving

Retailers will also benefit from consumer sentiment, which rose in December to the highest level in six months, according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan report released last week. The optimism may be tied to stock market gains and President Barack Obama’s deal with Republican leaders to keep tax rates from rising next year.

Sales at stores open at least a year climbed in November by the most in eight months compared with a year ago, and beat analysts’ estimates, industry reports showed. Retailers began discounting earlier in the month than in the past few years and continued through Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.

Target and Costco Wholesale Corp. led the sales gains for discounters last month, while teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and J.C. Penney Co., the third-largest U.S. department store chain, also posted better-than-forecast increases, according to company announcements.

Broad-Based Gains

Purchases are broadening out beyond holiday gifts and clothing. Home Depot Inc., the world’s largest home-improvement retailer, lifted its full-year profit forecast on stronger fourth-quarter demand for plumbing and electrical items.

“As we look at November into December, we see strength across the store,” Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome said Dec. 8 by telephone from an analysts’ meeting in Boston. The Atlanta- based company had a “terrific Black Friday.”

Investors have driven up retailer shares this year as spending accelerates. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index has gained 27 percent since Dec. 31, 2009, compared with an 11 percent advance for the broader S&P 500.

Sustaining demand may be hard without an improvement in the unemployment rate, which in November reached a seven-month high of 9.8 percent. Fed policy makers, due to hold their final meeting of 2010 on Dec. 14, may reiterate the strategy to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June to try to trim joblessness and avert deflation, or an extended drop in prices.

Prices Stable

Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in November for a second month, according to the Bloomberg survey median ahead of a Labor Department report Dec. 15. Excluding food and fuel costs, core prices were up 0.6 percent from November 2009, according to the survey median, matching October’s rise that was the smallest year-over-year gain on record.

Among other reports, Fed figures on Dec. 15 may show production at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.3 percent in November after stalling in October, economists projected. The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index, due the same day, and the Philadelphia Fed’s general economic gauge on Dec. 16 may indicate factories continued to expand this month.

Homebuilding, struggling to overcome a slump in demand and persistent foreclosures, grew in November following a drop in starts the prior month, Commerce Department data may show on Dec. 16. Rounding out the week, the Conference Board’s leading indicators gauge may reinforce evidence the economy is gaining momentum.

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El mercado de bonos seniala que Japon tendra 8 anios mas de deflation.

La produccion industrial en India sube mas de lo esperado: 10.8% y es la mayor produccion en 3 meses.

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Los buenos datos de la economia Americana nos deben dar una semana al alza.

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Ataque terrorista en Sweden

Dos explosiones en Stockholm el Sabado causaron un muerto y dos heridos. Un carro bomba exploto en Olof Palmes Gata y hubo otra explosion causada por un hombre suicida que llevaba una bomba.

Sweden's Prime Minister Urges Calm as Police Investigate Terror Attack

By IAN EDMONDSON
STOCKHOLM—Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt urged patience Sunday as police continued to investigate two explosions in Stockholm Saturday afternoon that left one person dead and two others injured in what security services are treating as a terrorist attack.

Swedish authorities say Saturday's two explosions in Stockholm were terror crimes, while local media reports one blast was caused by a suicide bomber.

"Three things occurred in a close space of time yesterday: A car exploded in Olof Palmes Gata, a man blew himself at Bryggargatan, and a news agency and [Swedish security service] SAPO received a warning message," Mr. Reinfeldt said at a press conference Sunday.

The two explosions occurred minutes apart near Drottninggatan, a busy pedestrian shopping street in central Stockholm packed with Christmas shoppers who scattered in panic as the car containing gas canisters, a white Audi station wagon, exploded and burst into flames at around 5 p.m.

Minutes later, a 28-year-old man died in what Swedish media said was an apparent suicide bomb attack a few hundred meters away from the car. Witnesses reported seeing a man lying on the ground afterward with blood appearing to come from his abdomen, and media reports said there was a bag containing nails on the ground beside him. Two people were taken to the hospital with light injuries.

"We cannot confirm that the events are linked, although it obviously raises questions," Mr. Reinfeldt said, urging people not to jump to conclusions or act hastily.


Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt at a press conference in Stockholm Sunday on the previous day's suicide bombing in Stockholm city center.
.SAPO said the explosions were being treated as an act of terrorism, officials said Sunday, though they declined to give further details.

"So far, the investigation revolves mostly around the man," the head of the Swedish SAPO security service, Anders Thornberg, said at a press conference Sunday. He declined to indicate whether there was link between the incidents or whether anyone else was involved but simply said: "There could be."

Mr. Thornberg said the explosions were being treated as a terrorist act but that didn't necessarily mean an increased threat to Sweden.

"What has happened is very serious, but our assessment is that what has occurred does not alter our assessment of the threat level in Sweden," he said.

Police said they were aware of the email but couldn't immediately confirm a link to the explosions.

Swedish media reported that an email was sent minutes before the explosion to news agency TT containing a reference to Lars Vilks, a Swedish artist responsible for a series of controversial drawings depicting the Prophet Muhammad as a dog in 2007, as well as Sweden's military presence in Afghanistan.

"Now your children, daughters and sisters shall die like our brothers and sisters and children are dying," the news agency quoted the email as saying. Sweden has around 500 troops serving in the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force.

Mr. Vilks, who lives in southern Sweden, has faced numerous death threats and a suspected assassination plot since his drawing was first published by Swedish regional daily Nerikes Allehanda to illustrate an editorial on the importance of freedom of expression.

Mr. Reinfeldt asked people to remain calm while the security services investigate the events.

"Be patient and let the justice system do its job. My job is to be clear and to stick to what we know. When we get answers we will have a discussion about what we need to do in terms of security. We have informed the opposition and there are ongoing discussions with other authorities," he said.

Write to Ian Edmondson at ian.edmondson@dowjones.com

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SPANISHDECEMBER 12, 2010, 12:57 P.M. ET
La UE critica los ataques especulativos al euro

MADRID (EFE Dow Jones)—Los ataques especulativos al euro dificultan un debate adecuado sobre el futuro de Europa y el diseño de sus presupuestos para los años a partir de 2014, según el comisario de Presupuestos y Programación Financiera de la Unión Europea, Janusz Lewandowski.

El comisario europeo reconoció, en declaraciones a EFE, que los ataques que sufre la moneda única provocan nerviosismo e inquietud en la UE y hacen que sus estados miembros sean menos solidarios.

En su opinión, la gente tiene que darse cuenta de que Europa ya no compite sólo con Estados Unidos, sino que es una carrera global frente a países como China, India o Brasil, y sólo la suma de todos permite a Europa ser un competidor global.

Dijo que los países de la UE que no utilizan el euro quieren participar en el diálogo sobre el futuro proyecto europeo y conocer sus mecanismos de solidaridad y de rescate, su resistencia a la crisis y el papel del Banco Central Europeo, cuestiones a las que hay que encontrar respuestas en 2011 "si queremos evitar que la crisis continúe".

Actualmente, la UE tiene problemas para alcanzar un acuerdo sobre los presupuestos para 2011, lo que ocurre por primera vez desde 1984. Lewandowski señaló que espera que aún se puedan salvar los presupuestos en la reunión de la próxima semana.

Si finalmente no se lograra el acuerdo, esto significaría 800 millones de euros menos para el rescate de Irlanda, explicó.

Aunque se mostró convencido de que España no es Grecia ni Irlanda, señaló que es un momento muy particular para el país, que se defiende de los ataques especulativos de los mercados financieros ante una atenta mirada de toda Europa.

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SPANISHDECEMBER 12, 2010, 1:45 P.M. ET
Irlanda usaría 10.000 millones de euros del fondo de rescate en el primer trimestre

DUBLÍN (EFE Dow Jones)—El gobierno irlandés hará uso de unos 10.000 millones de euros del fondo de rescate de la Unión Europea y del Fondo Monetario Internacional durante el primer trimestre de 2011, publica el domingo Sunday Business Post sin citar fuentes.

No se pudo contactar de forma inmediata con un portavoz del departamento de Finanzas del gobierno irlandés.

Irlanda ha acordado un paquete de rescate de 67.500 millones de euros con la UE y el FMI como parte de un acuerdo de ayuda de 85.000 millones de euros para apoyar sus cuentas públicas y su sector bancario.

Irlanda contribuye con fondos propios en la cantidad que va de 67.000 millones a 85.000 millones de euros, y ha acordado también préstamos bilaterales con Reino Unido y otros países.

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SPANISHDECEMBER 12, 2010, 2:05 P.M. ET
Países aprueban paquete de medidas en la cumbre del clima de Cancún

CANCÚN, México (EFE Dow Jones)—El conjunto de países del mundo acordaron el sábado un paquete de iniciativas para el clima que incluyen miles de millones de dólares de financiación para países pobres, aunque no consiguieron adoptar un tratado vinculante por el punto muerto en el que están algunos países.

El acuerdo establece que los países desarrollados reduzcan sus emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en las cantidades a las que se comprometieron hace un año, aunque las reducciones no son vinculantes de manera legal.

Los países en desarrollo también llevarán a cabo planes para reducir sus emisiones, en un esfuerzo global por limitar el calentamiento global a dos grados centígrados por encima de los niveles preindustriales.

El acuerdo incluye planes para un fondo verde de US$100.000 millones anuales que los países más ricos aportarán hasta 2020 para ayudar a los países más pobres a financiar programas de reducción de emisiones y para combatir la sequía y los efectos del cambio climático.


ZUMAPRESS.com
El presidente de México, Felipe Calderón, durante la ceremonia de clausura de la cumbre de Cancún.

El punto muerto en el que están Estados Unidos, China, Japón, India y otros países ha congelado las negociaciones para un tratado global sobre el clima y ha puesto en duda el futuro el actual Protocolo de Kioto.

Sin embargo, los diplomáticos han dicho que esperan que el plan de Cancún allane el camino para acordar un tratado vinculante cuando los países se vuelvan a reunir en la cumbre de Naciones Unidas sobre el clima del próximo año en Durban, Sudáfrica.

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ABREAST OF THE MARKETDECEMBER 13, 2010
Commodities' Paths Diverge

By LIAM PLEVEN

For much of this year, prices of basic crops, fuels and industrial metals have moved in sync with one another and in step with the global economic beat.

But in recent weeks, markets for commodities ranging from cotton to oil to copper have been driven more by their own supply-and-demand dynamics than by the broader outlook for the world economy.

"Commodities are starting to behave like commodities again," said Kevin Norrish, managing director for commodities research at Barclays Capital.


Reuters
Work at a Russian Norilsk Nickel copper plant. The metal is on a tear.

In the first half of the year, the markets for raw materials often rallied if sentiment favored a continuing recovery or faltered when the world feared another big slowdown. Prices for crude oil and copper, typically seen as barometers of economic activity, tracked each other closely.

Now, as investors gain confidence in an economic rebound, the fortunes of individual commodities are diverging. The gap between the performance of Dow Jones-UBS indexes that track agricultural and energy commodities is close to its widest point of the year, with crops up 28% this year and fuels down 13%, and industrial metals smack in the middle, up 8%.

At midyear, by contrast, the year-to-date returns from all three sectors were within less than a percentage point of one another.

The change has implications not only for investors who turn to commodities in hopes of diversifying their portfolios, but also for companies that produce or consume raw materials and individuals who buy the goods they are used to manufacture.

Big-picture economic forces still have the power to move the markets. The prices for many commodities have risen significantly since the Federal Reserve first signaled its plan in August to pump more money into the U.S. economy. With interest rates at historic lows, investors have also been piling into raw materials.

Nonetheless, the returns have started to differ. As recently as the end of July, copper and crude oil looked joined at the hip, with prices for the industrial metal down 0.6% for the year and oil down 0.5%.

Recently, though, copper has been on a tear, rising 7% in December and settling at a record high of $4.105 per pound on Friday, up 23% for the year. The recent rally has come despite worries about potential fallout from problems in major European economies. That is striking because the copper market wasn't able to weather similar fears this spring. Prices plunged 17% in just over a month, hitting a low for the year on June 7.

Since then copper is up 49%, reflecting the view of many analysts that copper demand will outpace production for some time, as rapidly growing emerging markets expand their infrastructure and as new investment products tie up supplies.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., a major miner based in Phoenix, says copper demand has also been strong in the U.S. and Europe, pointing to usage in automobile wiring and power cords and chargers used with electronics gear.

Other industrial metals have also risen sharply since midyear, reflecting both the economic backdrop and supply-demand dynamics.

"The global economy is recovering," said Fred Demler, global head of commodities at MF Global, a commodities brokerage. "The market is getting tighter."

Crude oil's recent rise has been more muted. Like copper, oil prices were hit hard by spring fears about weakness in Europe. Investors have also weighed whether China would tamp down growth, or the U.S. would slide back into recession.

As those fears eased in recent weeks and oil inventories in Western nations shrank somewhat, oil prices rose and have now traded above $80 a barrel for the longest stretch since late 2008.

Still, oil prices are up just 11% for the year, in part because supplies remain abundant and major petroleum-exporting countries have the capacity to pump out plenty more.

Worries about supply shortages, meanwhile, have been the driving force sending the prices for major agricultural crops soaring in the second half of the year.

A severe summer drought in Russia underscored the threat that weather can pose to production at a time when China's appetite is growing. Corn and wheat prices are both up 72% from June lows. Floods in Pakistan helped push up cotton prices.

To be sure, the balance between supply and demand retained the power to influence commodities prices even when broader economic concerns generally were foremost in investors' minds. Plentiful supplies of natural gas have depressed prices, down 21% this year, though the onset of colder weather and the resulting boost to demand have pushed prices up 6% this month.

Moreover, a renewed plunge into economic crisis could influence and ultimately trump the factors driving commodities markets at the moment.

"The macro environment is always going to be very important," said Michael Lewis, global head of commodities research for Deutsche Bank. "The system is still going to be quite fragile."

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Los caminos divergentes de Los commodities

Se ve un cambio en las ultimas semanas, los commodities ya no se estan moviendo al unisono. Estan obedeciendo mas a su propia dinamica de oferta y demanda.

Los commodities estan comportandose mas como commodities. La diferencia entre Los commodities de agricultura y energia estan un sus puntos mas amplios.


ABREAST OF THE MARKETDECEMBER 13, 2010
Commodities' Paths Diverge

By LIAM PLEVEN

For much of this year, prices of basic crops, fuels and industrial metals have moved in sync with one another and in step with the global economic beat.

But in recent weeks, markets for commodities ranging from cotton to oil to copper have been driven more by their own supply-and-demand dynamics than by the broader outlook for the world economy.

"Commodities are starting to behave like commodities again," said Kevin Norrish, managing director for commodities research at Barclays Capital.


Reuters
Work at a Russian Norilsk Nickel copper plant. The metal is on a tear.

In the first half of the year, the markets for raw materials often rallied if sentiment favored a continuing recovery or faltered when the world feared another big slowdown. Prices for crude oil and copper, typically seen as barometers of economic activity, tracked each other closely.

Now, as investors gain confidence in an economic rebound, the fortunes of individual commodities are diverging. The gap between the performance of Dow Jones-UBS indexes that track agricultural and energy commodities is close to its widest point of the year, with crops up 28% this year and fuels down 13%, and industrial metals smack in the middle, up 8%.

At midyear, by contrast, the year-to-date returns from all three sectors were within less than a percentage point of one another.

The change has implications not only for investors who turn to commodities in hopes of diversifying their portfolios, but also for companies that produce or consume raw materials and individuals who buy the goods they are used to manufacture.

Big-picture economic forces still have the power to move the markets. The prices for many commodities have risen significantly since the Federal Reserve first signaled its plan in August to pump more money into the U.S. economy. With interest rates at historic lows, investors have also been piling into raw materials.

Nonetheless, the returns have started to differ. As recently as the end of July, copper and crude oil looked joined at the hip, with prices for the industrial metal down 0.6% for the year and oil down 0.5%.

Recently, though, copper has been on a tear, rising 7% in December and settling at a record high of $4.105 per pound on Friday, up 23% for the year. The recent rally has come despite worries about potential fallout from problems in major European economies. That is striking because the copper market wasn't able to weather similar fears this spring. Prices plunged 17% in just over a month, hitting a low for the year on June 7.

Since then copper is up 49%, reflecting the view of many analysts that copper demand will outpace production for some time, as rapidly growing emerging markets expand their infrastructure and as new investment products tie up supplies.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., a major miner based in Phoenix, says copper demand has also been strong in the U.S. and Europe, pointing to usage in automobile wiring and power cords and chargers used with electronics gear.

Other industrial metals have also risen sharply since midyear, reflecting both the economic backdrop and supply-demand dynamics.

"The global economy is recovering," said Fred Demler, global head of commodities at MF Global, a commodities brokerage. "The market is getting tighter."

Crude oil's recent rise has been more muted. Like copper, oil prices were hit hard by spring fears about weakness in Europe. Investors have also weighed whether China would tamp down growth, or the U.S. would slide back into recession.

As those fears eased in recent weeks and oil inventories in Western nations shrank somewhat, oil prices rose and have now traded above $80 a barrel for the longest stretch since late 2008.

Still, oil prices are up just 11% for the year, in part because supplies remain abundant and major petroleum-exporting countries have the capacity to pump out plenty more.

Worries about supply shortages, meanwhile, have been the driving force sending the prices for major agricultural crops soaring in the second half of the year.

A severe summer drought in Russia underscored the threat that weather can pose to production at a time when China's appetite is growing. Corn and wheat prices are both up 72% from June lows. Floods in Pakistan helped push up cotton prices.

To be sure, the balance between supply and demand retained the power to influence commodities prices even when broader economic concerns generally were foremost in investors' minds. Plentiful supplies of natural gas have depressed prices, down 21% this year, though the onset of colder weather and the resulting boost to demand have pushed prices up 6% this month.

Moreover, a renewed plunge into economic crisis could influence and ultimately trump the factors driving commodities markets at the moment.

"The macro environment is always going to be very important," said Michael Lewis, global head of commodities research for Deutsche Bank. "The system is still going to be quite fragile."

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