Stocks Extend Drop Despite Surprise Fed Rate Cut
Dow industrials drop 600 points in volatile trading, Treasury yields fall after Federal Reserve move
By Akane Otani and Anna Isaac
Updated March 3, 2020 1:20 pm ET
U.S. stocks and government bond yields slid Tuesday after the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut failed to assuage money managers fearful of the economic fallout from the coronavirus epidemic.
Yields on U.S. Treasurys
Source: Tullett Prebon
As of March 3, 1:25 p.m. ET
%
Rate cut
10-year
Two-year
March 3
6 a.m.
noon
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Markets were volatile after the Fed’s announcement. Stocks initially shot higher, propelling the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 300 points. But within 15 minutes, stocks’ initial gains gave way to jerky up-and-down trading action—with the blue-chip average and Treasury yields falling to session lows after Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the limits of the central bank’s actions in a press conference.
“We do recognize the rate cut won’t reduce the rate of infection,” Mr. Powell said, though he added that he believed the move would “provide a meaningful boost to the economy.”
The Dow fell 628 points, or 2.4%, to 26074, while the S&P 500 lost 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.2%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a benchmark for everything from mortgage rates to student loans, slipped to a record low before trading at 1.034%.
The market’s swings Tuesday showed the extent to which the Fed’s move had left investors divided.
One-day index performance following theprevious three federal-funds rate cuts
Source: FactSet
Dow industrials
S&P 500
Nasdaq Composite
Oct. 2019
Sept. 2019
Aug. 2019
-1%
-0.75
-
On one hand, many money managers had been looking for the Fed to do exactly as it did Tuesday. They argued that the worsening epidemic justified the Fed taking action before its scheduled policy meeting—something that hadn’t been done since the financial crisis in 2008.
But many noted that the rate cut won’t have an immediate effect on the real economy or provide any more clarity on the economic toll the coronavirus is likely to take on the U.S. At best, the Fed’s move will help deliver some reassurance to traders while officials figure out a more specific fiscal response to the coronavirus. And unlike during the financial crisis, when extraordinary central bank actions helped prevent a complete collapse of the financial system, the Fed is now grappling with a different threat: a disease whose ultimate impact is still unknown.
“Fiscal authorities need to be the one that lead the way,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, which has lowered its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product growth to 1% for the first quarter. “Monetary policy is not well positioned to address supply shocks.”
Meanwhile, investors are bracing for the likelihood of a rise in coronavirus cases in the U.S. that could trigger more swings in markets.
“We’re still telling our clients to expect volatility. Right now there are too many unknowns about the impact,” said Solita Marcelli, deputy chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Others are wondering if the Fed’s action is a signal that they should be more worried about the outlook for the global economy and markets. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that he believed the U.S. economy was still on strong footing.
But some investors were left with doubt.
“What are they seeing that we aren’t?” said Kevin Preloger, portfolio manager at Perkins Investment Management.
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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point Tuesday to ease possible economic disruptions caused by the spread of coronavirus. Photo: Eric Baradat/AFP
The swings rippling across markets Tuesday underscored to traders how tenuous stocks' recent attempt to recoup their losses has been. Even before the stock market opened in New York Tuesday, futures had been subject to big moves up and down—extending a recent streak of volatile trading.
“We haven’t really seen too much heavy buying at the moment. I think people are kind of waiting it out,” said Mohit Bajaj, director of ETF trading solutions at WallachBeth Capital.
The Fed isn’t the only institution to indicate a willingness to step in to help arrest a potential slowdown due to the coronavirus.
Earlier, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven countries said they were ready to use “all appropriate policy tools”—including possibly fiscal stimulus measures—to guard against economic risks from the coronavirus. Markets had lost some ground following the statement, with some attributing the moves to disappointment that the G-7 stopped short of delivering a specific and detailed coordinated policy response.
Hopes for a wave of stimulus helped drive the Dow up 5.1% Monday, its biggest gain in more than a decade.
“This talk of concerted and coordinated action from central banks has had a reaction, but what form that takes, time will tell,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “Cutting interest rates isn’t going to make someone take a flight to Italy if they’re too scared to do it.”
Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.4%, finishing well off its high for the day.
Stock performance was muted in Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed mostly flat, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.2% and China’s Shanghai Composite closed 0.7% higher.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange earlier today.
Photo: justin lane/Shutterstock
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—Avantika Chilkoti and Anna Isaac contributed to this article
Write to Akane Otani at
akane.otani@wsj.com and Anna Isaac at
anna.isaac@wsj.com