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Market heads into worst earnings season in 12 years amid worries virus is slowing recovery
PUBLISHED FRI, JUL 10 20201:51 PM EDTUPDATED FRI, JUL 10 20204:19 PM EDT
Patti Domm
@IN/PATTI-DOMM-9224884/
@PATTIDOMM
Investors turn their attention to earnings season in the week ahead, with Pepsico, Netflix and the major banks among the first to report.
Earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to decline by 44%, the worst drop since the fourth quarter of 2008, when profits fell 67%.
Investors will continue to watch the impact of the virus on the economy’s ability to reopen and recover, so monthly retail sales Thursday will be important.
Traders with masks work on the first day of in-person trading since the closure during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 26, 2020.
Traders with masks work on the first day of in-person trading since the closure during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 26, 2020.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
The worst earnings season in years is about to begin, and it’s possible the stock market could shrug off the sharp profit decline, as long as companies see some signs of a recovery ahead.

Earnings are expected to fall by 44%, the worst quarterly performance since the Great Recession when S&P 500 profits fell by 67% in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data. It is also expected to be the worst quarter of the pandemic crisis, revealing the extent of the earnings damage as the economy slumped more than 30%.


Major financials JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are among the financial firms reporting. Pepsico starts off the week with its report Monday, and Johnson and Johnson, Abbott Labs and Netflix also report.

The financial sector is expected to see a more than 52% decline in profits, according to Refinitiv.

“U.S. companies are about to give us a look into their worst quarter since the Great Financial Crisis,” said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest. “But since so many companies aren’t giving earnings forecasts, investors won’t make moves based on earnings alone. They’ll also be looking at trends since the quarter ended. Increasing coronavirus cases, management outlooks, and price performance could all have an outsized impact, and that could lead to outsized market moves.”

Stocks turned in a mixed performance in the past week, reacting at times to the rising risks to the economy as coronavirus cases continued to increase in some states. The Dow posted a weekly gain of 0.96% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 1.76% and 4.01%, respectively.

In the week ahead, there are some important economic reports, including CPI inflation data Tuesday and retail sales Thursday. Last month, retail sales rose a surprise 17.7% but this month economists are watching closely to see if the reversal of some openings and the delays in other is impacting consumer spending.


But it’s the earnings that could be a litmus test for markets.

“I think it really comes down to earnings, not what the numbers are going to be. People don’t care about the numbers. They want to hear what the companies have to say,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Adivsory Group. “Tech companies are going to have the most important earnings. Companies like semiconductors, that go into automobiles, computers and cell phones. They’re the ones that have to say our outlook is great, and therefore our stocks deserve to be at all-time highs.”

Tech company earnings are only expected to fall by 8%. The worst sectors are expected to be energy, with a decline of 154%, followed by consumer discretionary, expected to be down by 114%, according to Refinitiv.

Week ahead calendar

Monday

Earnings: Pepsico

11:30 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams in event with Bank of England

2 p.m. Federal budget

Tuesday

Earnings: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Fastenal, Delta

6:00 a.m. NFIB small business survey

8:30 a.m. CPI

1:30 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

2:00 p.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard

Wednesday

Earnings: Goldman Sachs, United Healthcare, US Bancorp, PNC, Bank of NY Mellon, Infosys, Alcoa

8:30 a.m. Empire State survey

8:30 a.m. Import prices

9:15 a.m. Industrial production

11:45 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

2:00 p.m Fed’s beige book

Thursday

Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Trust Financial, Johnson and Johnson, Abbott Laboratories, PPG Industries, Taiwan Semiconductor, Domino’s Pizza

8:30 a.m. Initial claims

8:30 a.m. Retail sales

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

10:00 a.m. Business inventories

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

11:10 a.m. New York Fed’s Williams

12:30 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

4:00 p.m. TIC data

Friday

Earnings: BlackRock, Ally Financial, Regions Financial, Citizens Financial, Kansas City Southern, LM Ericsson

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

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9.69 0.66
Japan: Nikkei 225 22714.31 423.50 1.90
UK: FTSE 100 6095.41 45.79 0.76
Crude Oil Futures 40.19 -0.36 -0.89
Gold Futures 1807.00 5.10 0.28
Yen 106.83 -0.09 -0.08
Euro 1.1326 0

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2.99 1.05
China: Shanghai Composite 3426.21 42.88 1.27
Japan: Nikkei 225 22716.09 425.28 1.91
UK: FTSE 100 6095.41 45.79 0.76

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Dow futures rise nearly 200 points as investors shake off a continued spike in coronavirus cases
PUBLISHED SUN, JUL 12 20206:04 PM EDTUPDATED 20 MIN AGO
Yun Li
@YUNLI626
WATCH NOW
VIDEO00:59
Stocks set for higher open amid record spike in US Covid-19 cases
Stock futures rose in early morning trading on Monday as investors looked past a record spike in coronavirus cases in Florida.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 185 points, pointing to a more than 200-point gain at Monday’s open. The S&P 500 futures and the Nasdaq 100 futures contracts also pointed to a positive Monday start for the two indexes.


Florida reported 15,299 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, the highest single day total for any U.S. state since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the U.S. has reported more than 60,000 new cases daily for three days in a row now, bringing the national total to more than 3 million cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

“COVID remains a huge problem w/cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities all climbing,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said in a note on Sunday. “The market continues to absorb all this information relatively well and this seems to be a function of vaccine hopes, lower fatality rates vs. Mar/April, the avoidance of wholesale lockdowns, and the lack of a resurgence in the Northeast (esp. NYC).”

The Dow and the S&P 500 are coming off two consecutive weeks of gains, while the resilience in tech shares pushed the Nasdaq to a new record after three straight positive weeks. For July, the Dow and the S&P 500 have risen 1.0% and 2.7%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, climbing 10.7% this month as Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet all reclaimed new highs.


“The overall rally is still very narrow...and several of the high flying mega-cap stocks are becoming overbought (and more over-valued),” Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Sunday. “Therefore, we HAVE to wait to see if the key resistance level on the S&P is indeed broken to the upside before we can confirm that another rally leg in the broad stock market has begun.”

Earnings season is set to kick off this week with big banks and others reporting their quarterly results. JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled to report on Tuesday. Pepsi will report earnings on Monday before the market open.

Corporate profits are expected to fall by 44% in the second quarter, which would be the biggest drop in quarterly earnings since the fourth quarter of 2008, according to Refinitiv data. However, the market could shrug off the sharp profit decline as long as companies signal a recovery on the horizon.

After the S&P 500′s best quarter in more than 20 years, the broad market’s comeback rally has slowed down amid fears of a worsening pandemic. Still, the equity benchmark is now down just 1.4% year to date, sitting about 6% off its February record.

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CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 39.92 -0.63 -1.55
Brent Crude Futures 42.70 -0.54 -1.25
Gold Futures 1813.50 11.60 0.64
Silver Futures 19.505 0.452 2.37
DJIA Futures 26115 138 0.53
S&P 500 Futures 3192.00 13.60 0.43

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 39.82 -0.73 -1.80
Brent Crude Futures 42.63 -0.61 -1.41
Gold Futures 1813.60 11.70 0.65
Silver Futures 19.495 0.442 2.32
DJIA Futures 26112 135 0.52
S&P 500 Futures 3191.50 13.10

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ST CHG %CHG
DJIA 26306.19 230.89 0.89
S&P 500 3211.14 26.10 0.82
Nasdaq Composite 10763.51 146.07 1.38
Japan: Nikkei 225 22784.74 493.93 2.22
UK: FTSE 100 6160.79 65.38 1.07
Crude Oil Futures 40.23 -0.32 -0.79
Gold Futures 1817.50 15.60 0.87
Yen 107.24 0.32 0.30
Euro 1.1356 0.0055

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 40.21 -0.34 -0.84
Brent Crude Futures 42.92 -0.32 -0.74
Gold Futures 1817.30 15.40 0.85
Silver Futures 19.705 0.652 3.42
DJIA Futures 26140 163 0.63
S&P 500 Futures 3195.50 17.10 0.54
Currencies9

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Copper July 13,09:59
Bid/Ask 2.9703 - 2.9710
Change +0.0665 +2.29%
Low/High 2.8552 - 2.9995
Charts

Nickel July 13,09:59
Bid/Ask 6.0248 - 6.0270
Change -0.0692 -1.14%
Low/High 5.9043 - 6.1031
Charts

Aluminum July 12,19:59
Bid/Ask 1.0080 - 1.0089
Change +0.2554 +33.93%
Low/High 0.7477 - 1.0095
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Zinc July 13,09:59
Bid/Ask 1.0042 - 1.0046
Change +0.0254 +2.60%
Low/High 0.9714 - 1.0062
Charts

Lead July 13,09:59
Bid/Ask 0.8445 - 0.8450
Change +0.0064 +0.77%
Low/High 0.8345 - 0.8461
Charts

Uranium Jul 06, 2020
Ux U308 price: 32.80
Change fro

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