Friday 28/08/20 Gasto del consumidor

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Gasto del consumidor
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PMI de Chicago
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All day Virtual Jackson Hole conference continues
8:30 am Personal income July -0.4% -1.1%
8:30 am Consumer spending July 1.6% 5.6%
8:30 am Core inflation July 0.5% 0.2%
8:30 am Advance trade in goods July -$71.5 billion -$70.6 billion
9:45 am Chicago PMI Aug. -- 51.9
10 am Consumer sentiment index (final) Aug.

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4 -39.72 -0.34
Japan: Nikkei 225 23235.52 26.66 0.11
UK: FTSE 100 5999.99 -45.61 -0.75
Crude Oil Futures 42.83 -0.21 -0.49
Gold Futures 1936.50 3.90 0.20
Yen 106.71 0.15 0.14
Euro 1.1820 -0.0002

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3484.55 5.82 0.17
China: Shanghai Composite 3350.11 20.37 0.61
Japan: Nikkei 225 23245.31 36.45 0.16
UK: FTSE 100 5999

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-s ... 00?mod=mhp

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625.34 -39.72 -0.34
Japan: Nikkei 225 22882.65 -326.21 -1.41
UK: FTSE 100 6006.47 6.48 0.11
Crude Oil Futures 43.04 0.00 0.00
Gold Futures 1969.20 36.60 1.89
Yen 105.35 -1.22 -1.14
Euro 1.1912

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84.55 5.82 0.17
China: Shanghai Composite 3403.81 53.69 1.60
Japan: Nikkei 225 22882.65 -326.21 -1.41
UK: FTSE 100 6006.62

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 43.04 0.00 0.00
Brent Crude Futures 45.58 -0.02 -0.04
Gold Futures 1968.00 35.40 1.83
Silver Futures 27.680 0.655 2.42
DJIA Futures 28588 120 0.42
S&P 500 Futures 3495.25

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LAST CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1916 0.0094 0.80
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 105.33 -1.24 -1.16
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3315 0.0114 0.86
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9030 -0.0060 -0.66
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.8639 -0.0260 -0.38
U.S. Dollar Index 92.29

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 28537.54 45.27 0.16
S&P 500 3492.82 8.27 0.24
Nasdaq Composite 11689.81 64.47 0.55
Japan: Nikkei 225 22882.65 -326.21 -1.41
UK: FTSE 100 6005.47 5.48 0.09
Crude Oil Futures 43.17 0.13 0.30
Gold Futures 1966.50 33.90 1.75
Yen 105.38 -1.18 -1.11
Euro 1.1892 0.0070 0.59

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https://lta.reuters.com/articulo/econom ... O1UX-OUSLT

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https://lta.reuters.com/articulo/cocaco ... O1LV-OUSLT

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 28523.00 30.73 0.11
S&P 500 3489.74 5.19 0.15
Nasdaq Composite 11683.43 58.09 0.50
Japan: Nikkei 225 22882.65 -326.21 -1.41
UK: FTSE 100 5977.15 -22.84 -0.38
Crude Oil Futures 42.89 -0.15 -0.35
Gold Futures 1967.10 34.50 1.79
Yen 105.35 -1.22 -1.15
Euro 1.1894 0

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https://www.bvl.com.pe/

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S&P 500′s stunning summer rally points to best August since 1986
PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 28 20206:19 AM EDTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Bob Pisani
@BOBPISANI
A child wearing a face mask sits on the Charging Bull statue, also known as the Wall Street Bull, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York, August 19, 2020.
A child wearing a face mask sits on the Charging Bull statue, also known as the Wall Street Bull, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York, August 19, 2020.
Carlo Allegri | Reuters
It’s been a great August, up 6% for the S&P 500, the best August since 1986.

But then again, it was a great July. And a great June. May was pretty good, too, and April was downright eye-popping.


The Summer Rally (S&P 500 Monthly Returns)

April: up 12.7%
May: up 4.5%
June: up 1.8%
July: up 5.5%
August (so far): up 6.6%
Five straight up months. What’s going on?

“August is going to come out looking like capital markets are endorsing a US cyclical recovery,” Nicholas Colas from DataTrek told clients in a recent note.

Colas freely admits that August’s outside return has a big asterisk: Apple’s 18% run-up.

“This meaningfully skews everything from Tech sector returns to Growth/Value performance spreads and even the S&P 500′s August return,” he said, noting that without Apple, the S&P would be up only 4.1% on the month, not 6.8%.


Still, it sure looks like the market is endorsing an economic rebound. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also up about 6% for the month. High-yield corporate funds are outperforming all other bond market classes. If the trading community was worried about an imminent economic downturn, neither of those two sectors would be leading.

The market has held up on a combination of optimism on a treatment/vaccine, along with massive Fed stimulus.

There’s still optimism on the vaccine front, but now that the Fed has announced its program to keep rates lower for longer and tolerate higher inflation levels ahead of its much-anticipated Sept. 16 meeting, many are arguing the rally based on a Fed “put” (a floor below the market) has gone about as far as it can go.

“The Fed easy money story now priced into the market,” Alec Young, chief investment officer at Tactical Alpha, told me. “It’s buy the rumor, sell the news.”

But even Young admits that may only suffice to pause, but not derail, the rally. He also argues the market needs a pause in the relentless digital/work-from-home story: “It is not healthy to have the index dominated by a few technology stocks,” he said.

None of this means the market will drop, and there are still plenty of bulls who insist the market is going higher.

Jim Paulsen at Leuthold is one of them: He has been bullish and remains bullish, though he freely admits the market could see a 10% correction.

He also freely admits that tech stocks are extended, but insists the fundamentals for tech are rock solid and nothing like 2000. Extended, he insists, does not mean they are waiting for a crash.

And he strongly disagrees with the popular notion that Wall Street has become disconnected from Main Street.

“It’s not just about the Fed put. People think there is no legitimacy to the rally, and they’re wrong. Look at retail sales, or the ISM, or housing, or auto sales. Look at the improvement in unemployment claims. They’re all bouncing,” he said.

As for the narrow rally centered on tech, Paulsen believes the broader market is about to play catch-up.

How much? He said he would not be surprised if S&P corporate profits were $200 per share in 2021. The current consensus is $165.

Profits 25% higher than consensus for 2021? That would go a long way toward justifying the rally.

“We’ve had a 12% reduction in GDP, an all-time record,” he told me. “But we may have an 18% improvement in GDP in the next 12 months, and that also would be an all-time high. That is going to bring in the broader market along with it. You are going to have a major league shift in profitability into those cyclical names. When you thrust all those companies into a depression, and then you force them to get the most efficient they have ever been in their existence, and after all that, you give them a wartime boom? Profitability is going to be maximized.”

Paulsen has told his clients to stay long: “I am going to own new-era tech, but I am going to own less of it going forward, and I am going to own more of the broader market--cyclicals, international, and small caps.”

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 28581.28 89.01 0.31
S&P 500 3493.71 9.16 0.26
Nasdaq Composite 11692.54 67.21 0.58
Japan: Nikkei 225 22882.65 -326.21 -1.41
UK: FTSE 100 5979.32 -20.67 -0.34
Crude Oil Futures 42.90 -0.14 -0.33
Gold Futures 1976.80 44.20 2.29
Yen 105.26 -1.31 -1.23
Euro 1.1902