Martes 28/12/10 Indice de las casas, confianza del consumido

[admin]

Martes

Eventos economicos

Indice de las casas
Confianza del consumidor
Confianza del inversionista
Subasta de bonos


ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET


Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET


State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

[admin]

La produccion industrial en Japon sube 1%, es la primera vez en 6 meses.

[Luis04]

Porque el kitco sigue sin actualizarse en la cotizacion de los metales, igual en la pagina del JPM. Donde puedo ver las cotizaciones de los metales, en el comentario del dia de ayer mencionaban que el cobre habia subido, donde se puede ver eso.

[admin]

INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
NIKKEI 225 10,317.00 -39.04 -0.38% 21:28
HANG SENG INDEX 22,599.10 -234.72 -1.03% 22:11


Yields 3.37%

Los futures del Dow Jones 8 puntos al alza

[admin]

Oro y petroleo al alza

10:19 p.m. EST 12/27/10Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 91.25 0.25 91.00
Gold, Feb. 1390.8 7.9 1382.9
DJ Industrials 11516 13 11503
S&P 500 1254.20 0.90 1253.30

10:30 p.m. EST 12/27/10Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 82.49 82.86
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3243 1.3158
† Late Monday in New York.

[admin]

Estan de vacaciones, no hay tampoco television del Asia en vivo toda esta semana.

[admin]

China tendría como objetivo un crecimiento anual del PIB de 7% hasta 2015
BEIJING (EFE Dow Jones)—China podría ponerse como objetivo un crecimiento económico medio anual del 7% entre 2011 y 2015, por debajo del objetivo de crecimiento del 7,5% del anterior quinquenio, informó el lunes la revista Caijing en su página web, citando fuentes anónimas que participaron en el borrador del duodécimo plan a cinco años del gobierno.
Un menor objetivo anual de PIB estaría en línea con el cambio de política hacia la reestructuración económica realizado por el gobierno, que ya no aspira a conseguir mayores tasas de crecimiento, según las fuentes consultadas por la publicación.

El gobierno de China ha señalado que sus objetivos anuales de PIB sólo sirven como "orientación" y no como predicción exacta del crecimiento económico.
La publicación citaba a funcionarios según los cuales China fijó un objetivo de crecimiento anual del PIB del 7% para el décimo plan económico a cinco años, durante el cual el crecimiento real fue, en promedio, del 9,8%.
En el quinquenio que finaliza el 31 de diciembre, se espera que el crecimiento real se aproxime al 10,9%, dijeron las fuentes a la revista.

[Luis04]

Gracias Aguila.

[FOR3X]

El cobre ha subido en Nueva york , puedes verlo aqui.


http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/base/copper.html

[Fenix]

Las mejores inversiones de 2010

Este fue definitivamente el año de las inversiones en oro y otros metales preciosos.

De acuerdocon Morningstar.com, firma de análisis de fondos de inversión, la inversión con mayor rentabilidad este año fue en fondos que invirtieron en empresas dedicadas a metales preciosos como el oro: La rentabilidad del año fue de casi 38%.

Es decir. El que puso $100 en enero de este año, hoy tiene cerca de $138. La segunda mejor rentabilidad fue en fondos de acciones de empresas de Estados Unidos cuya rentabilidad anual fue de 19%.

En fondos dedicados a empresas internacionales el retorno fue de 12% y en empresas de mercados emergentes la rentabilidad fue de 17,3%.

El peor desempeño fue el de los bonos del gobierno. Los fondos dedicados a este tipo de inversión solo lograron cerca de 4,89% en 2010, según Morningstar.com.

En otras palabras, no fue un mal año para los inversionistas del mercado de acciones. A pesar de las dificultades, $100 invertidos en acciones se convirtieron en $119 al final si estaban invertidos en empresas de EE.UU.

No es para nada un mal resultado dado que ha sido uno de los años más difíciles para las empresas de EE.UU.

Y fuera de los mercados bursátiles, la peor inversión fue en vivienda. La valorización de las casas fue muy baja o inexistente y en muchos casos negativa.
Fuente:Aol

[admin]

Oil up 91.27

Los futures del DJ 11 pintos al alza

Europa al alza

Au up 1,397.20

Euro up 1.3207

El Asia cerro en rojo

[admin]

BAC y C recomiendan comprar GM

+10

Euro up 1.3205

Oil up 91.18

Futures cu up 4.2845

El franco Suizo sigue subiendo

Sprint probablemente adquirira Clearway en los proximos doece meses

Las ventas por Christmas aumentaron 4.8%

China recortara las cuotas de exportacion de metales raros en 11% para el 2011.

[admin]

Los commodities le ganaron al sector financiero haciendo a Ag, Zinc las mejores inversiones para el 2011

Commodities Beat Financial Assets Making Silver, Zinc Top Picks for 2011
By Nicholas Larkin, Pham-Duy Nguyen and Tony C. Dreibus - Dec 27, 2010 7:00 PM ET

Copper prices climbed 18 percent this year, reaching $8,725 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on Dec. 3. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Edward Meir, a senior analyst at MF Global Ltd., talks about the outlook for commodity prices. Meir, speaking with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack," also discusses China's monetary policy. (Source: Bloomberg
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors, and Matt Shapiro, president of MWS Capital, talk about the outlook for commodities and the U.S. stock market. They speak with Carol Massar, Adam Johnson and Zahra Burton on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

At a time when money managers’ concerns have swung between record government stimulus and the potential for a new recession, investors remain bullish on commodities that beat stocks and bonds for a second year.

The benchmark Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge advanced 20 percent, more than the 9.1 percent gain in the MSCI World Index of stocks and 5.3 percent return on a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index of Treasuries. Currency traders are betting on a stronger dollar, sending a contrarian signal because commodities moved in an opposite direction to the currency in 16 of the past 20 quarters, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Silver, an investment and an industrial material, will jump as much as 37 percent next year, leading gains in the 15 commodities covered in a Bloomberg survey of more than 100 analysts, traders and investors. Zinc, this year’s worst- performing metal, will appreciate 21 percent. Arabica coffee, which reached a 13-year high last week, will be the weakest performer, adding no more than about 7 percent.

The strength in demand “has been a surprise considering that we’ve just come out of the worst recession since the 1930s and carnage in most asset classes,” London-based Roxana Mohammadian-Molina, one of a team of 18 analysts at Barclays Capital who correctly called the bottom in oil and copper last year, said by phone Dec. 22. The bank says U.S. natural gas, will be the only one of the 25 commodity prices it follows that will average less next year.

Stocks Short

Global stocks are still about $11 trillion short of the record $62.6 trillion of market capitalization reached in October 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Over the same period, commodity assets under management rose about 80 percent to $354 billion, and will attract a total of $60 billion in new money this year, the second most after 2009, Barclays estimates.

The S&P GSCI Index is extending last year’s 50 percent advance, which also beat the 27 percent jump in the MSCI World Index and the 3.7 percent loss on Treasuries.

Investors favored raw materials this year as China, the biggest user of everything from coal to iron ore to zinc, led the recovery from the first global recession since World War II. With economies now expanding, competition for raw materials is intensifying.

U.S. growth will rise to 3.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, from 2.5 percent in the first, according to the median estimates of as many as 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. China’s will slow to 9 percent next year from 10 percent in 2010, still three times the rate of the U.S. and six times the speed of the euro zone, the surveys show. China on Dec. 26 raised interest rates to counter inflation.

Goldman’s Picks

Commodities gaining the most will be those in which China is least self-sufficient and with the smallest spare production capacity, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by London-based Jeffrey Currie. Oil, copper, cotton, soybeans and platinum are the bank’s top picks.

Goldman on Dec. 13 forecast an 18 percent advance in raw materials in 12 months, led by a 28 percent gain in precious metals. That tallies with the results of the Bloomberg survey.

Silver, the precious metal most used in industry, will rise 37 percent to as high as $40 an ounce next year from $29.1238 an ounce Dec. 24 in trading in London, the survey shows. Palladium, used in catalytic converters for cars, will jump as much as 18 percent to $900 an ounce from $764 in trading in London Dec. 24.

“Investors will be cycling out of gold and into silver, platinum and palladium if financial and economic conditions improve,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group, a research company in New York.

Gold Outlook

Christian correctly predicted in January that gold would reach $1,400 an ounce this year and is now forecasting prices to peak at $1,550 in the first quarter before declining as low as $1,200. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey is for a 23 percent gain to as high as $1,700. Gold reached a record $1,431.25 Dec. 7 in London and closed at $1,381.47 Dec. 24.

The popularity of precious metals suggests investors are seeking safety as governments and central banks pump money into economies to shore up recovery.

The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008 and plans to inject $600 billion into the economy through June by purchasing government bonds through so-called quantitative easing. It already bought $1.7 trillion of securities in a first phase that ended in March.

“I like gold because I’m concerned that our fiscal and monetary policies don’t make any sense,” David Einhorn, the president of Greenlight Capital Inc., which manages about $6.8 billion of assets, said in an interview in New York. “It leads potentially to a risk of greater instability later.”

$111 Billion

Investors increased precious-metals holdings by 22 percent to a record 17,390 metric tons in the 10 months to Dec. 17, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s worth about $111 billion, of which 84 percent is in gold and 13 percent in silver, with the remainder in platinum and palladium.

Returns for commodity investors may be lower than the spot index suggests. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index, tracking the net amount received, rose 8.4 percent this year, reflecting the cost of maintaining positions in futures markets. When longer- dated contracts cost more than those for immediate delivery, a market structure known as contango, investors pay a premium to maintain their holdings as positions expire.

Gains in commodities may evaporate if currency traders’ bets that the dollar will strengthen are right.

Dollar Risk

Contracts on the dollar appreciating against the euro are at a three-month high and the U.S. Dollar Index gauge against six counterparts rose 6 percent since Nov. 4. The inverse relationship between the currency market and commodities last month reached the highest level in more than a year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Commodity experts in the Bloomberg survey are betting this time will be different amid surging demand and dwindling stockpiles.

Copper use will outpace supply by 825,000 tons next year, more than twice the inventory in London Metal Exchange-monitored warehouses, according to Barclays Capital. Prices which reached a record $9,392 a ton on Dec. 21 in London will rise to $10,475 next year, the Bloomberg survey shows. Zinc will be the best- performing industrial metal, advancing as much as 21 percent to $2,800 a ton from $2,308 in London on Dec. 24.

Demand may also come from new exchange-traded products. ETF Securities Ltd. started offering investors ETPs backed by copper, tin and nickel this month, attracting about $25 million so far. JPMorgan Chase & Co., BlackRock Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG also plan similar products.

Weather Markets

A stronger dollar may also be trumped by weather in agricultural markets. Wheat as much as doubled since June and corn jumped 83 percent as Russia’s worst drought in at least a half century, flooding in Canada and parched fields in Kazakhstan and Europe ruined crops.

While wheat should rise as much as 17 percent to $9.13 a bushel next year from $7.83 in Chicago on Dec. 23 and corn 14 percent to $7 a bushel from $6.14, coffee was picked as likely to be the worst performer in the Bloomberg survey. Analysts see a gain of no more than 7 percent to $2.53 a pound from $2.359 a pound in New York on Dec. 23.

“We don’t see an imminent threat to commodity prices in 2011,” said Evan Smith, who helps manage $900 million at U.S. Global Investors Inc. in San Antonio. “You will still have concern over currency stability and in emerging economies there’s the wealth effect that’s driving demand.”

[admin]

Au up 1,403.70

+14

[admin]

AIG +3.65%

SLW +2.16%

PAAS +1.68%

NG +2.04%

MCP +5.18%

Euro up 1.3206

+16