Martes 13/07/21 Inflación

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Martes

Eventos económicos

Índice de los pequeños negocios
Inflación
Presupuesto federal

6 am NFIB small-business index June 100.0 99.6
8:30 am Consumer price index June 0.5% 0.6%
8:30 am Core CPI June 0.5% 0.7%
2 pm Federal budget June

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0.21
Japan: Nikkei 225 28792.06 223.04 0.78
UK: FTSE 100 7125.42 3.54 0.05
Crude Oil Futures 74.30 0.20 0.27
Gold Futures 1811.60 5.70 0.32
Yen 110.39 0.02 0.02
Euro 1.1874 0.0011

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15.08 0.35
China: Shanghai Composite 3556.44 8.61 0.24
Japan: Nikkei 225 28792.06 223.04 0.78
UK: FTSE 100 7125.42 3.54

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CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 74.30 0.20 0.27
Brent Crude Futures 75.33 0.17 0.23
Gold Futures 1811.30 5.40 0.30
Silver Futures 26.400 0.161 0.61
DJIA Futures 34882 7 0.02
S&P 500 Futures 4375.50 -1.00

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CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1872 0.0010 0.08
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 110.39 0.02 0.02
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3900 0.0018 0.13
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9145 -0.0007 -0.08
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.4647 -0.0109 -0.17
U.S. Dollar Index 92.14 -0.12

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YIELD CHG
U.S. 10 Year 1.374 0.008
Germany 10 Year -0.292 -0.003
U.K. 10 Year 0.652 -0.008
Japan 10 Year 0.029 -0.000
Australia 10 Year 1.343 0.015
China 10 Year 2.967 0

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JPMorgan tops estimates after posting $2.3 billion benefit on better-than-expected loan losses
PUBLISHED TUE, JUL 13 20216:20 AM EDTUPDATED 4 MIN AGO
Hugh Son
@HUGH_SON
The bank posted second-quarter earnings of $11.9 billion, or $3.78 per share, exceeding the $3.21 estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.
Companywide revenue of $31.4 billion exceeded the $29.9 billion estimate.
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co, at a luncheon hosted by The Economic Club of Chicago on November 22, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois.
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co, at a luncheon hosted by The Economic Club of Chicago on November 22, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase reported profit and revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations as the firm released money set aside for loan losses.

The bank posted second-quarter earnings of $11.9 billion, or $3.78 per share, exceeding the $3.21 estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. Companywide revenue of $31.4 billion exceeded the $29.9 billion estimate.


One key factor is that after the industry set aside tens of billions of dollars for loan losses last year, banks have been releasing reserves as borrowers have held up better than expected.

There was a wide range of expectations for second-quarter credit loss provisions at JPMorgan; analysts surveyed by FactSet expected a release of as much as $967 million to a provision of up to $2.6 billion. The bank had a $5.2 billion reserve release in the first quarter.

Trading revenue is expected to decline from the year earlier period, which saw frenzied activity in the aftermath of Federal Reserve actions to bolster markets during the early stage of the coronavirus pandemic.

Last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that while trading revenue will decline from the previous year, investment banking revenue was headed for a 20% jump due to strength in mergers fees, he said.

Analysts may ask Dimon about the bank’s succession planning after it named two senior executives, Marianne Lake and Jennifer Piepszak, to run the company’s sprawling consumer bank. The changes led to the promotion of global research head Jeremy Barnum to CFO succeeding Piepszak; this is Barnum’s first quarter handling the firm’s earnings release.


Dimon may also be asked about his acquisition strategy after making the third purchase of a fintech start-up since December. Last month, the bank agreed to buy ESG investing platform OpenInvest, CNBC reported first.

Shares of JPMorgan have climbed 24% so far this year, exceeding the $17% rise of the S&P 500 Index.

Here’s what Wall Street expected:

Earnings: $3.21 per share, 132% higher than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv.

Revenue: $29.9 billion, 11% lower than a year earlier.

Trading Revenue: Fixed income $4.16 billion, Equities $2.31 billion, according to FactSet.

Investment Banking Revenue: $3.1 billion.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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Copper July 13,06:59
Bid/Ask 4.2105 - 4.2124
Change -0.0439 -1.03%
Low/High 4.2069 - 4.2732
Charts

Nickel July 13,06:56
Bid/Ask 8.4858 - 8.4903
Change +0.0454 +0.54%
Low/High 8.4178 - 8.5357
Charts

Aluminum July 12,20:00
Bid/Ask 1.1257 - 1.1271
Change -0.0032 -0.28%
Low/High 1.1251 - 1.1300
Charts

Zinc July 13,06:59
Bid/Ask 1.3224 - 1.3228
Change -0.0018 -0.14%
Low/High 1.3194 - 1.3299
Charts

Lead July 13,06:59
Bid/Ask 1.0458 - 1.0460
Change -0.0109 -1.03%
Low/High 1.0449 - 1.0585
Charts

Uranium Jul 05, 2021
Ux U308 price: 32.60
Change from

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T CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 74.30 0.20 0.27
Brent Crude Futures 75.40 0.24 0.32
Gold Futures 1811.30 5.40 0.30
Silver Futures 26.190 -0.049 -0.19
DJIA Futures 34880 5 0.01
S&P 500 Futures 4375.50 -1.00

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Goldman’s earnings blow past estimates as investment banking revenue boosted by strong IPO market
PUBLISHED TUE, JUL 13 20216:24 AM EDTUPDATED MOMENTS AGO
Yun Li
@YUNLI626
In this article
GSBD
+0.22 (+1.13%)
After Hours
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs & Co., speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., on Monday, April 29, 2019.
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs & Co., speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., on Monday, April 29, 2019.
Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs reported its second-quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday.

Here are the numbers:


Earnings: $15.02 per share vs. $10.24 expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. A year ago, Goldman recorded an EPS of $6.26 (53 cents per share if accounted for costs related to the 1MDB settlement.)
Revenue: $15.39 billion vs. $12.17 billion expected

Investment banking posted its second-highest revenue quarter ever with $3.61 billion, behind the first quarter of 2021, as a booming IPO market boosted Goldman’s equity underwriting.

Last month, following the strong results of the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test, Goldman said it planned on boosting its dividend by 60% to $2 per share, subject to approval from the bank’s board.

For its first quarter of 2021, the New York-based bank blew past analysts’ expectations with record net profits and revenues on strong performance from the firm’s investment banking and trading businesses, thanks to a rise in retail banking fueled by cheap consumer deposits.

Of the six biggest U.S. banks, Goldman gets the largest share of its revenue from Wall Street activities including trading and investment banking.


Shares of Goldman have risen 45% in 2021 on the back of the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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In this article
GSBD
+0.22 (+1.13%)
After Hours

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HG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 74.41 0.31 0.42
Brent Crude Futures 75.54 0.38 0.51
Gold Futures 1810.30 4.40 0.24
Silver Futures 26.225 -0.014 -0.05
DJIA Futures 34814 -61 -0.17
S&P 500 Futures 4365.00 -11.50

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En rojo

LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34939.43 -56.75 -0.16
S&P 500 4384.60 -0.03 -0.00
Nasdaq Composite 14763.46 30.22 0.21
Japan: Nikkei 225 28718.24 149.22 0.52
UK: FTSE 100 7121.51 -3.91 -0.05
Crude Oil Futures 74.16 0.06 0.08
Gold Futures 1809.70 3.80 0.21
Yen 110.42 0.04 0.04
Euro 1.1828

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34956.55 -39.63 -0.11
S&P 500 4388.94 4.31 0.10
Nasdaq Composite 14789.05 55.81 0.38
Japan: Nikkei 225 28718.24 149.22 0.52
UK: FTSE 100 7124.72 -0.70 -0.01
Crude Oil Futures 75.20 1.10 1.48
Gold Futures 1812.40 6.50 0.36
Yen 110.42 0.04 0.04
Euro 1.1804

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Inflation Accelerates Again in June as Economic Recovery Continues
Higher used auto prices continue to push consumer-price index up, along with increases for new autos, airline fares and apparel

By Updated July 13, 2021 11:50 am ET

Rising prices reflect robust consumer demand boosted by widespread vaccinations, the ending of many business restrictions and federal pandemic relief.
Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
The index measures what consumers pay for goods and services, including clothes, groceries, restaurant meals, recreational activities and vehicles. It increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in June from May, the largest one-month change since June 2008.

Prices for used cars and trucks leapt 10.5% from the previous month, driving one-third of the rise in the overall index, the department said, marking the third straight month of big price increases amid a supply shortage of vehicles. The indexes for airline fares and apparel also rose sharply in June.

Consumers are seeing prices rise for numerous reasons, as the U.S. economic recovery picks up. Richard F. Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp., said the main driver of June inflation was booming demand that outpaced the ability of businesses to keep up. Another factor, he said, was the recovery in prices for air travel, hotels, rental cars, entertainment and recreation—all services hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Demand is coming back very rapidly, and businesses are normalizing prices in the sense that they are making up for declines” earlier in the pandemic, he said.

Supply shortages and higher shipping costs also continue to drive rapid increases in goods inflation. Prices of goods, excluding food and energy, saw the two biggest monthly increases on record in April and May, Mr. Moody said.

Rising prices reflect robust consumer demand boosted by widespread vaccinations, the ending of many business restrictions, trillions of dollars in federal pandemic relief and ample household savings. Stronger demand also has pushed employers to seek more workers and pay higher wages, as they struggle to hire.

What the Inflation of the 1970s Can Teach Us Today
0:00 / 7:55
What the Inflation of the 1970s Can Teach Us Today
What the Inflation of the 1970s Can Teach Us Today
The U.S. inflation rate reached a 13-year high recently, triggering a debate about whether the country is entering an inflationary period similar to the 1970s. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath looks at what consumers can expect next.
U.S. gross domestic product rose 6.4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in July expect the Commerce Department to report that the economy grew at a 9.1% annual rate in the second quarter—poised for the GDP’s best year since the early 1980s.

Annual inflation measurements are being amplified by comparisons with figures from last year during Covid-19 lockdowns, when prices plummeted because of collapsing demand for many goods and services. This so-called base effect is expected to push up inflation readings in June, dwindling into the fall.

Compared with two years ago, overall prices rose 3% in June. Overall prices jumped at a 9.7% annualized rate in the three months ended in June, on a seasonally adjusted basis, faster than the 8.4% pace in May.

Much of the increase in June was driven by factors that are likely to subside in coming months, including the semiconductor chip shortage that is reducing the supply of autos and the post-reopening surge in consumer demand. Accelerating prices for new and used cars and gains in prices for lodging and transportation services, which includes car and truck rentals, contributed the vast majority of the core CPI increase.

But prices of goods and services less directly influenced by these trends are picking up too. For example, rents are now rising at a pace slightly faster than before the pandemic. Stripping out those more temporary contributions, the core index nonetheless rose at a pace that would normally be considered relatively healthy though not enough to signal a worrisome pickup in inflation, said Alex Lin, U.S. economist at BofA Global Research.

More companies are passing on higher labor and materials costs to consumers. Many also are raising prices for the first time in years, as demand surges following pandemic-related business restrictions.


Air travel—hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic—is recovering.
Photo: David Zalubowski/Associated Press
Ryan L. Sumner and Michelle Fox of Fenix Fotography LLC in Charlotte have been operating at maximum capacity for several months shooting photographic portraits for people looking for new jobs, working remotely and starting new businesses. Mr. Sumner said they raised prices in February by about 20% and last week by nearly 17%, the first price increases in about 15 years.

The first increase didn’t put a dent in their business or alleviate burnout that the couple was experiencing because of unrelenting demand. They are interviewing to add a second photographer. “One of the things we’re looking at is limiting availability…because it’s been a lot for a small firm to handle. Where we’re at is, we either have to raise prices or add staff—or both,” Mr. Sumner said.

Policy makers are watching June’s reading to gauge the magnitude of what many expect to be several months of robust inflation after a year of anemic price pressures during the peak of the pandemic. Whether the inflation surge is temporary is a key question for the U.S. economy and financial markets—and the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies aimed at helping the economy through the pandemic.

Another factor is consumer expectations for higher inflation, which can affect economic decisions in households, as consumers are more willing to accept higher prices because they expect them to rise. The rate of inflation the median consumer expects five to 10 years from now hit 2.8% in June, up slightly from last year but in line with the average for the last 20 years, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.

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The latest economic news, analysis and data curated weekdays by WSJ's Jeffrey Sparshott.

Jay Bodenstein, 73, of The Villages, Fla., has been conscious of rising prices for food, rent, gasoline, auto insurance, healthcare and travel. He said that he and his wife, Sandy, have been going out to dinner less in part because of higher prices and because they are increasingly anxious about the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

The Fed, in a report released Friday, reiterated its view that inflation has risen because of bottlenecks, hiring difficulties and other largely transitory factors related to the economy’s rebound from the pandemic. Most officials, in projections released last month, believe inflation will decline to around 2% over the next two years. Still, a sustained, large increase in inflation could compel the Fed to tighten its policies earlier than planned—or to react more aggressively later—to achieve its 2% average inflation goal.

Many economists now expect higher inflation to stick around while slowly easing. Those surveyed by the Journal in July estimate on average that annual inflation, measured by the CPI, will ease to 4.1% in December. Annual inflation for 2019—ahead of the pandemic’s start in March 2020—was 1.8%, on average.

The distortions from the semiconductor shortage and post-reopening disruptions, though ultimately temporary, may persist throughout the rest of the year, said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. That could make it harder for the Fed to hold fast to its commitment to keep monetary policy loose.

“The longer these effects last, the more challenging it will be to stick with a transient view, even though...ultimately price pressures are likely to be temporary,” she said.

Some 47% of small businesses indicated that they raised average selling prices in June, the highest share since 1981, according to a survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade association.

Many consumers are willing to pay higher prices than they might normally be after spending more than a year cooped up at home, said Ms. Farooqi.

“Right now what you have, especially among people who didn’t lose their jobs and get to go on vacation, is, ‘My tolerance is a little higher right now,’” she said.

Bracing for Inflation

Analysis from The Wall Street Journal, selected by the editors

Corrections & Amplifications
The consumer-price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in June from May, the largest one-month change since June 2008. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the index rose a seasonally adjusted 1%. (Corrected on July 13, 2021)