Lunes 04/10/21 Semana del empleo

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Lunes

Eventos económicos


Órdenes de fábricas

Entre los eventos más importantes de la semana tenemos el déficit comercial, el PMI y el ISM de servicios el Martes; el reporte del empleo privado el Miércoles; los seguros de desempleo y el crédito del consumidor el Jueves; las cifras del empleo y los inventarios mayoristas el Viernes.
4
10 am Factory orders Aug. 1.1% 0.4%
10 am Core capital goods orders (revision) Aug. -- 0.5%
TUESDAY, OCT. 5
8:30 am Trade deficit Aug. -$70. 6 billion -$70.1 billion
9:45 am Markit services PMI (final) Sept. 54.4 54.4
10 am ISM services index Sept. 60.0% 61.7%
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 6
8:15 am ADP employment Sept. 430,000 374,000
THURSDAY, OCT. 7
8:30 am Initial jobless claims (regular state program) Oct. 2 340,000 362,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims (regular state program) Sept. 25 -- 2.80 million
3 pm Consumer credit Aug. $16 billion $17 billion
FRIDAY, OCT. 8
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Sept. 485,000 235,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate Sept. 5.1% 5.2%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings Sept. 0.4% 0.6%
10 am Wholesale inventories (revision) Aug.

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0.82
Japan: Nikkei 225 28497.57 -273.50 -0.95
UK: FTSE 100 7027.07 -59.35 -0.84
Crude Oil Futures 75.56 -0.32 -0.42
Gold Futures 1759.80 1.40 0.08
Yen 111.06 -0.01 -0.01
Euro 1.1592 -0.0002 -0.02

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Composite 3568.17 31.87 0.90
Japan: Nikkei 225 28497.57 -273.50 -0.95
UK: FTSE 100 7027.07 -59.35 -0.84

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CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 75.54 -0.34 -0.45
Brent Crude Futures 78.97 -0.31 -0.39
Gold Futures 1759.50 1.10 0.06
Silver Futures 22.550 0.014 0.06
DJIA Futures 34106 -61 -0.18
S&P 500 Futures 4336.75 -7.00 -0.16

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CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1589 -0.0004 -0.03
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 111.05 -0.02 -0.02
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3535 -0.0011 -0.08
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9308 0.0003 0.03
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.4467 0.0000 0.00
U.S. Dollar Index 94.08 0.04

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YIELD(%) YIELD CHG
U.S. 10 Year 1.476 0.012
Germany 10 Year -0.222 0.000
U.K. 10 Year 1.006 0.000
Japan 10 Year 0.050 -0.005
Australia 10 Year 1.498 -0.003
China 10 Year 2.894 0.000

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Copper October 03,23:19
Bid/Ask 4.1439 - 4.1471
Change -0.0209 -0.50%
Low/High 4.0506 - 4.1861
Charts

Nickel October 03,23:19
Bid/Ask 8.3355 - 8.3423
Change +0.0431 +0.52%
Low/High 8.2425 - 8.3650
Charts

Aluminum October 03,23:17
Bid/Ask 1.2983 - 1.2994
Change +0.0009 +0.07%
Low/High 1.2837 - 1.3044
Charts

Zinc October 03,23:19
Bid/Ask 1.3692 - 1.3699
Change +0.0061 +0.45%
Low/High 1.3627 - 1.3733
Charts

Lead October 03,23:19
Bid/Ask 0.9824 - 0.9826
Change -0.0014 -0.15%
Low/High 0.9754 - 0.9857
Charts

Uranium Sep 27, 2021
Ux U308 price: 43.00
Change from
previous w

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T CHG %CHG
DJIA 34369.21 42.75 0.12
S&P 500 4344.63 -12.41 -0.28
Nasdaq Composite 14461.59 -105.10 -0.72
Japan: Nikkei 225 28444.89 -326.18 -1.13
UK: FTSE 100 7046.10 19.03 0.27
Crude Oil Futures 77.12 1.24 1.63
Gold Futures 1751.90 -6.50 -0.37
Yen 111.11 0.04 0.04
Euro 1.1632 0

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Stocks Slip as Investors Weigh Debt Ceiling, Evergrande
Nasdaq declines with a retreat in technology stocks after the opening bell

By Updated Oct. 4, 2021 9:32 am ET
U.S. stocks opened the week with a modest fall, as bond yields ticked up and investors weighed uncertainty about the debt ceiling and indebted property developer China Evergrande Group.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%. The broad index closed last week down 2.2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.6% Monday, pointing to muted declines in technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 65 points, or 0.2%.

Tesla shares rose 2% after the auto maker reported record deliveries in the third quarter. Merck climbed 3.4%, suggesting an extension of Friday’s gains into a second session, after the pharmaceutical company said its antiviral pill was effective against Covid-19 in a late-stage trial. Vaccine makers slipped, with Moderna declining 7.6% and Novavax down 4%.

Investors are watching negotiations in Congress closely, as lawmakers debate the debt ceiling ahead of a deadline this month to raise it so the government can pay its bills. Meanwhile, Democrats are considering scaling back the next spending package to improve its chances of being passed. The Biden administration is also set to unveil its China trade policy following a review of import tariffs.

“You’ve got a combination of uncertainty out of D.C., continued headlines out of China about Evergrande and against a backdrop where you’ve seen bond yields rise,” said David Stubbs, global head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “This should all eventually be manageable but this is the problem with policy uncertainty, especially about the world’s two largest economies.”

Shares of China Evergrande and its property-management unit halted trading in Hong Kong on Monday. The subsidiary said this was pending an announcement about a possible takeover bid.

Another Chinese developer, Hopson Development, also halted its shares. It said this was pending an announcement about a transaction involving an unnamed Hong Kong-listed target company.

“While this could provide some shorter-term funding, markets are still going to question what the longer-term picture is for the company,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist at UBS Asset Management. Evergrande carries more than $300 billion of liabilities that investors think it is unlikely to pay.

Why China’s Evergrande Has Global Markets on Edge
0:00 / 4:24
Why China’s Evergrande Has Global Markets on Edge
Why China’s Evergrande Has Global Markets on Edge
Evergrande, China’s most indebted property developer, has kept markets on edge.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 1.479% Monday, from 1.464% Friday.

Global benchmark Brent crude wavered, retreating 0.4% before ticking up 0.8% and trading at $79.90, as investors awaited a meeting Monday of OPEC members. Some traders are pricing in the possibility of a larger increase to production output, which would weigh on oil prices, according to analysts at Rystad Energy.

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 edged up 0.1%. Volvo Cars said it was planning an initial public offering and expects to list its class B shares on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange. Shares of Morrisons were down 3.7% after a bidding war between private-equity firms to acquire the British supermarket chain ended without a significantly higher than expected bid.

In Asia, most major benchmarks pulled back. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 2.2%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index declined 1.1%. Markets in mainland China are closed until Friday for the Golden Week holiday.

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 33984.54 -341.92 -1.00
S&P 500 4297.62 -59.42 -1.36
Nasdaq Composite 14239.00 -327.70 -2.25
Japan: Nikkei 225 28444.89 -326.18 -1.13
UK: FTSE 100 7011.01 -16.06 -0.23
Crude Oil Futures 77.90 2.02 2.66
Gold Futures 1766.30 7.90 0.45
Yen 110.91 -0.16 -0.15
Euro 1.1622 0

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https://www.bvl.com.pe/

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Broader Inflation Pressures Begin to Show
Price indexes that exclude extreme changes point to inflation running ahead of Fed’s 2% target

By Oct. 4, 2021 5:30 am ET

There were signs in August that cost increases related to supply disruptions had begun easing.
Photo: Kristen Norman for The Wall Street Journal
While many pandemic-driven price pressures are easing, broader sources of higher inflation are replacing them.

That is the message from a slew of alternative inflation measures that strip away price changes due to idiosyncratic swings in supply and demand, and home in on longer-lasting pressures.

These alternative indexes are signaling “inflation is not as extreme as what the headline or traditional core shows right now, but it is picking up,” said Sarah House, director and senior economist at Wells Fargo.

“All of these measures have moved from signaling price stability to signaling sharp accelerations in underlying inflation,” said Brent Meyer, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Some economists interpret this as inflation returning to levels consistent with a healthy economy, after being too low before the pandemic. “To now see price pressures picking up, but not at extremely worrying levels—it’s progress,” said Blerina Uruci, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.

Inflation as measured by the Labor Department’s consumer-price index was 5.3% in the 12 months through August, close to the highest in 12 years. Economists generally expect that to fall, but disagree on how much. They attribute much of the recent surge in prices to temporary causes—such as a post-vaccine spending upsurge, specific supply-chain problems and other production bottlenecks—that should fade as businesses ramp up output.

But a key question is whether prices will continue to rise more persistently once these temporary disruptions end.

The Federal Reserve has argued that inflation will recede to just above its 2% target by 2022. Nonetheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, asked last week whether inflation is now broader and more structural than earlier this year, responded, “Yes, I think it’s fair to say that it is.”

There were signs in August that cost increases related to supply disruptions had begun easing. The core consumer-price index, which excludes the often volatile categories of food and energy, rose just 0.1% from July, the smallest monthly increase since February. Prices for used vehicles dropped sharply, as did hotel rates and airline fares, possibly due to the impact of the Delta variant on travel.

Alternative inflation measures can help suggest where inflation is headed, by cutting out statistical noise or zeroing in on historical pricing patterns, said Alex Lin, U.S. economist at BofA Global Research. For example, some remove extreme price swings like June’s surge in used-vehicle prices, which accounted for more than one-third of that month’s CPI increase.

The Cleveland Fed’s 16% trimmed-mean CPI—which lops off the most extreme price changes—and its median CPI, capturing the middle-most price change, both grew at the same month-over-month rate in August as in July, suggesting that falling prices for airline fares, hotels and rental cars caused the overall CPI to overstate the slowdown in inflation.

The inflation shown by these indexes is lower than the trend in the CPI and core CPI, but still well above 2%, and—unlike those mainstream measures—continued to climb in August. The trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% in August compared with the same month a year earlier, up from 3% in July and well above the 2% average between 2012 and 2019.

The rising trimmed mean alongside a more sluggish pickup in the median CPI signals that while many prices are experiencing above-average inflation, most are not, said Robert W. Rich, director at the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research.

The median suggests “inflation will move back down to a range consistent with the Fed’s long-term target, while the trimmed mean is suggesting there is more upside risk,” he said. The unprecedented nature of the pandemic shock makes interpreting these movements unusually hard, he cautioned.

An index from the San Francisco Fed that reslices CPI based on historical pricing patterns also signals that temporary price spikes caused by imbalances in supply and demand are fading.

This index regroups the Commerce Department’s core personal-consumption expenditure price index into a cyclical index, whose components are more sensitive to the strength of the economy because they go up when the labor market tightens, and into an acyclical series of all other prices. During expansions of the last 25 years, acyclical inflation was usually lower than cyclical inflation, but it was faster from April to June. Now the two are about the same.

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The Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price CPI is also signaling a pickup in underlying inflation. The index includes only items whose prices change relatively infrequently, meaning that they react slowly to changes in economic conditions—for example, medical care and rent.

“By tracking this measure, we think we’re getting something that’s telling us about…inflation a year or two or three out. And that measure is starting to move up,” said the Altanta Fed’s Mr. Meyer. The sticky-price CPI in August rose 2.6% from a year earlier, a slight acceleration from July, and nearing the 2.8% rate that prevailed just before the pandemic.

The significant increase in price pressure signaled by this and the other indexes is a potential worry, Mr. Meyer said.

Related Video

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Dow sheds 350 points as investors ditch technology stocks, Nasdaq drops 2%
PUBLISHED SUN, OCT 3 20216:03 PM EDTUPDATED 7 MIN AGO
Maggie Fitzgerald
@MKMFITZGERALD
WATCH NOW
VIDEO02:23
Markets is a couple weeks away from stabilizing: BNY Mellon’s Alicia Levine
The major averages took steep losses to start the week as investors continued their rotation out of technology stocks amid rising bond yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 350 points, despite a large gain in Merck. The S&P 500 shed 1.3%. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite was the relative underperformer, dipping roughly 2.2%.


Large tech shares like Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft were lower as investors eyed bond yields. A surge in rates to end September knocked highly valued tech stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield was slightly higher Monday, trading around 1.47%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 1.56% last week, its highest point since June, with investors concerned about inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy.

Social media giant Facebook lost 4.9% after being accused of a “betrayal of democracy” by a whistleblower who revealed her identity on Sunday.

“The financial markets are adjusting leadership to reflect another Covid-induced reopening cycle,” said Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Group chief investment strategist. “That is, commodities are rising, bond yields are rising, cyclical sectors and small cap stocks are outpacing, and technology and growth stocks in general are underperforming.”

On the positive side, Tesla rose nearly 2% after the company said this weekend that it delivered 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter, well above analysts estimates.

Merck shares were up another 2%, following through on an 8% surge on Friday after the drug maker said its oral antiviral treatment developed with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics for Covid-19 reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases.


Some airlines stayed in the green after Barclays upgraded the North American Airlines sector to positive from neutral. Southwest rose 2% after an upgrade to overweight from equal weight from the same analyst.

Energy stocks also rose amid an uptick in oil prices. Exxon Mobil gained 1.4% and ConocoPhillips rallied 2.7%. Chevron advanced 1.3%.

“At these extremely lofty valuations stock prices are very sensitive to modest changes in incremental capital flows and it appears that there is some ‘performance chasing’ going on as the energy space is attracting capital which is trying to make it look like they had exposure to oil & gas (window dressing) and that means less money flowing into tech,” said Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO and chief investment officer.

Friday marked the first trading day of October and the final quarter of 2021. The major averages rose that day on promising data for Merck’s oral treatment for Covid-19, which boosted stocks tied to the economic reopening.

The market rebound followed a rough September plagued by fears of inflation, Federal Reserve tapering and rising interest rates. The S&P 500 finished the month down 4.8%, breaking a seven-month winning streak. The Dow and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.3% and 5.3%, respectively, suffering their worst months of the year.

“The on-again, off-again nervousness about Federal monetary policy, the disruption among supply chains and the potential for higher taxes (along with other concerns such as inflation risk and higher taxes) have kept market enthusiasm in check,” wrote John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief investment strategist, in a note Monday. “Meanwhile rotation and rebalancing efforts along with some profit taking by skeptics, bears and nervous investors account for a significant part of market activity on any given day.”

“Curiously, investor worries about COVID-19 and its variant seem to have begun to play a lesser day-to-day ‘worry role’ in the markets of late than over the course of the summer,” he added.

The fourth quarter is typically a good period for stocks, but overhangs like central bank tightening, the debt ceiling, Chinese developer Evergrande and Covid-19 could keep investors cautious. Heading into the fourth quarter, more than half of all S&P stocks are off at least 10%.

The S&P 500 has averaged gains of 3.9% in the fourth quarter and was up four out of every five years since World War II, according to CFRA.

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One of the first hurdles markets face in the new quarter is Friday’s closely watched employment report, which could spur the Federal Reserve’s decision on when to taper its bond-buying program.

Economists expect about 475,000 jobs were added in September, according to an early consensus figure from FactSet. Just 235,000 payrolls were added in August, about 500,000 less than expected.

“Markets this week are likely to take their cue from economic data as they look to Friday’s employment report for clues as to the strength of the US economy,” said Oppenheimer’s Stoltzfus.

—CNBC’s Patti Domm contributed to this report.

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34002.92 -323.54 -0.94
S&P 500 4300.46 -56.58 -1.30
Nasdaq Composite 14255.48 -311.21 -2.14
Japan: Nikkei 225 28444.89 -326.18 -1.13
UK: FTSE 100 7011.01 -16.06 -0.23
Crude Oil Futures 77.60 1.72 2.27
Gold Futures 1770.40 12.00 0.68
Yen 110.93 0.00 0.00
Euro 1.1620 0.0000 0