Jueves 04/08/22 Deficit comercial

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies- ... 15?mod=mhp

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52.42 0.41
Japan: Nikkei 225 28175.87 243.67 0.87
UK: FTSE 100 7437.79 -10.27 -0.14
Crude Oil Futures 88.04 -0.50 -0.56
Gold Futures 1801.10 -5.80 -0.32
Yen 133.17 0.23 0.17
Euro

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4151.94 -3.23 -0.08
China: Shanghai Composite 3227.03 37.99 1.19
Japan: Nikkei 225 28175.87 243.67 0.87
UK: FTSE 100 7437

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 87.96 -0.58 -0.66
Brent Crude Futures 93.68 -0.44 -0.47
Gold Futures 1801.00 -5.90 -0.33
Silver Futures 19.995 -0.127 -0.63
DJIA Futures 32694 13 0.04
S&P 500 Futures 4148

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-83.73

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Stocks Drop, Yields Surge as Jobs Fuel Rate Bets: Markets Wrap
Labor-market data backs Fed’s view of a resilient economy
Tensions between the US and China continue to simmer

We Find China Stocks Very Attractive, Says Bahuguna
Unmute
Market Volatility, BOE Warning, US Eco Plan: 3-Minute MLIVSource: Bloomberg
ByIsabelle Lee, Emily Graffeo, and Elaine Chen+Follow
August 4, 2022, 6:35 PM EDT
Updated onAugust 5, 2022, 9:30 AM EDT
US stocks dropped and Treasuries sank after data showed a booming labor market that might prompt the Federal Reserve to raise rates sharply at its next meeting.

The S&P 500 fell and the two-year Treasury yield jumped toward 3.2% after employers added 528,000 jobs last month, more than double what economists expected. Wage growth also came in stronger than anticipated.

“We believe this development signals the end of the recent bear market rally” wrote Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “A primary driver of the recent move higher was that investors hoped the Fed would be less aggressive going forward, which propelled growth and technology higher.”


The strong jobs report validates the Fed’s view of a resilient economy that can withstand additional interest-rate hikes. Traders have now recalibrated expectations for Fed policy, with a hike of three-quarters of a percentage point the more likely scenario at the September meeting as the central bank battles inflation.

A handful of Fed officials this week reiterated the central bank’s resolve to bring down high prices. Among them is Fed St Louis President James Bullard, who has said he favors a strategy of front-loading big interest-rate hikes. That stance has likely strengthened after Friday’s job report, ruling out the possibility of a dovish pivot that Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at last week.


“This jobs report is consistent with an inflationary boom,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. “The Fed has a lot more work to do and in an odd way, that the Fed needs to get more aggressive in pushing up rates, makes the hard-landing scenario more likely.”

Here’s what else Wall Street is saying about the jobs surprise:

Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co:

“Odds of a 75 basis point move next month have shot up, as they should. We still get one more jobs report before the September FOMC but barring a disaster, I think 75 bp then is a done deal.”

Eric Theoret, global macro strategist at Manulife Investment Management:

“For the Fed, this report confirms the need to continue tightening and also endorses much of this week’s Fedspeak that sought to jawbone rate expectations. For markets, the report may pose a challenge for rate-sensitive equities like tech which had recently been leading in terms of sector performance.”

Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors:

“All the jobs lost during the pandemic have now been regained. But while that is positive news, markets will take today’s number as a timely reminder that there is significantly more Fed hiking still to come. Rates are going above 4% -- today’s number should put to bed any doubters.”

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group:

“This was a great number with the obvious big upside in hirings but when this is happening at the same time GDP is declining, it means productivity is plunging. Also, as the pace of firing is at the highest level in nine months, this pace of hiring is just not sustainable.”

Despite being the focus of the day for traders, the jobs report supposedly has little value for those trying to predict a recession because it’s backward-looking.

Recessions and Job Outlook

Corporate earnings, combined with thin liquidity that’s common in the summer, took the stock market on a ride this week. Many firms beat expectations and proved they could handle high inflation and a gloomy economic outlook. But investors have resumed shunning global stocks in favor of bonds, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, who say it’s time to step back from US equities after July’s rally.


US-China tension also remains among the uncertainties clouding the outlook. China announced it would halt cooperation with the US in a number of areas -- including working-level talks on climate change and defense -- after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan this week. China also sent warships across the Taiwan Strait’s median line in the first such incursion in years, a day after likely firing missiles over the island.

West Texas Intermediate stayed below $90 a barrel. Gold fell and Bitcoin gained.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 fell 1% as of 9:30 a.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9%
The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0155
The British pound fell 1.1% to $1.2022
The Japanese yen fell 1.5% to 134.83 per dollar
Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 13 basis points to 2.82%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 0.90%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 2.01%
Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $87.49 a barrel
Gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,783.90 an ounce
— With assistance by Cecile Gutscher, Michael M

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CHG %CHG
DJIA 32710.74 -16.08 -0.05
S&P 500 4141.86 -10.08 -0.24
Nasdaq Composite 12675.90 -44.68 -0.35
Japan: Nikkei 225 28175.87 243.67 0.87
UK: FTSE 100 7466.57 18.51 0.25
Crude Oil Futures 89.90 1.36 1.54
Gold Futures 1793.10 -13.80 -0.76
Yen 135.26 2.32 1.74
Euro 1.0174

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CHG %CHG
DJIA 32697.26 -29.56 -0.09
S&P 500 4135.63 -16.31 -0.39
Nasdaq Composite 12632.80 -87.78 -0.69
Japan: Nikkei 225 28175.87 243.67 0.87
UK: FTSE 100 7464.04 15.98 0.21
Crude Oil Futures 90.34 1.80 2.03
Gold Futures 1792.80 -14.10 -0.78
Yen 135.21 2.26 1.70
Euro 1.0165 -0.0082 -0.80

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/july-jobs- ... 90?mod=mhp

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Copper August 05,10:59
Bid/Ask 3.5776 - 3.5788
Change +0.0630 +1.79%
Low/High 3.4870 - 3.5848
Charts

Nickel August 05,10:59
Bid/Ask 10.0388 - 10.1363
Change +0.0786 +0.79%
Low/High 9.8467 - 10.6088
Charts

Aluminum August 05,10:59
Bid/Ask 1.1932 - 1.1941
Change +0.0095 +0.80%
Low/High 1.1701 - 1.2068
Charts

Zinc August 05,10:59
Bid/Ask 1.5949 - 1.5951
Change -0.0034 -0.21%
Low/High 1.5214 - 1.6197
Charts

Lead August 05,10:59
Bid/Ask 0.9348 - 0.9355
Change +0.0119 +1.29%
Low/High 0.9178 - 0.9417
Charts

Uranium Aug 01, 2022
Ux U308 price: 48.50
Change from
previous wee

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Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market
PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 5 20228:30 AM EDTUPDATED 6 MIN AGO
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Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6% respectively.
Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from a year ago, higher than estimates.
Traders are now pricing in a higher likelihood of a 0.75 percentage point hike for the next Federal Reserve meeting in September.
WATCH NOW
VIDEO02:36
U.S. payrolls increased by 528,000 in July, far higher than expectations
Hiring in July was far better than expected, defying multiple other signs that the economic recovery is losing steam, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6%, respectively. The unemployment rate is now back to its pre-pandemic level and tied for the lowest since 1969, though the rate for Blacks rose 0.2 percentage point to 6%.


Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago. Those numbers add fuel to an inflation picture that already has consumer prices rising at their fastest rate since the early 1980s. The Dow Jones estimate was for a 0.3% monthly gain and 4.9% annual increase.

More broadly, though, the report showed that the labor market remains strong despite other signs of economic weakness.

“There’s no way to take the other side of this. There’s not a lot of, ‘Yeah, but,’ other than it’s not positive from a market or Fed perspective,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “For the economy, this is good news.”

Markets initially reacted negatively to the report, with Dow Jones Industrial Average down 128 points in early trading as traders anticipated a strong counter move from a Federal Reserve looking to cool the economy and in particular a heated labor market.

Leisure and hospitality led the way in job gains with 96,000, though the industry is still 1.2 million workers shy of its pre-pandemic level.


Professional and business services was next with 89,000. Health care added 70,000 and government payrolls grew 57,000. Goods-producing industries also posted solid gains, with construction up 32,000 and manufacturing adding 30,000.

Retail jobs increased by 22,000, despite repeated warnings from executives at Walmart, Target and elsewhere that consumer demand is shifting.

A more encompassing view of unemployment that includes those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons as well as discouraged workers not looking for jobs was unchanged at 6.7%.

Back to pre-pandemic

Despite downbeat expectations, the July gains were the best since February and well ahead of the 388,000 average job gain over the past four months. The BLS release noted that total nonfarm payroll employment has increased by 22 million since the April 2020 low when most of the U.S. economy shut down to deal with the Covid pandemic.

Previous months’ totals were revised slightly, with May raised by 2,000 to 386,000 and June up 26,000 to 398,000.

“The report throws cold water on a significant cooling in labor demand, but it’s a good sign for the broader U.S. economy and worker,” Bank of America economist Michael Gapen said in a client note.

The bureau noted that private sector payrolls are now higher than the February 2020 level, just before the pandemic declaration, though government jobs are still lagging.

The unemployment rate ticked down, the result both of strong job creation and a labor force participation rate that declined 0.1 percentage point to 62.1%, its lowest level of the year.

WATCH NOW
VIDEO04:45
July’s jobs report was a ‘jaw-dropping’ number, says economist Austan Goolsbee
Economists have figured job creation to begin to slow as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool inflation running at its highest level in more than 40 years.

The strong jobs number coupled with the higher-than-expected wage numbers led to a shift in expectations for September’s expected rate increase. Traders are now pricing in a higher likelihood of a 0.75 percentage point hike for the next meeting, which would be the third straight increase of that magnitude.

“One the one hand, it gives the Fed more confidence that it can tighten monetary policy without leading to a widespread rise in unemployment,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist for job review site Glassdoor. “But it also shows that the labor market isn’t cooling, or at least wasn’t cooling as fast as anticipated. ... At the very least, even though it’s a surprise, I think the Fed is still on track to continue tightening monetary policy.”

‘Academic’ recession debate

The Fed has raised benchmark interest rates four times this year for a total of 2.25 percentage points. That has brought the federal funds rate to its highest level since December 2018.

The economy, meanwhile, has been cooling significantly.

Gross domestic product, the measure of all goods and services produced, has fallen for the first two quarters of 2022, meeting a common definition for a recession. White House and Fed officials as well as most Wall Street economists say the economy likely is not in an official recession, but the slowdown has been clear.

“The recession debate at this point is more academic than anything else,” said Sonders, the Schwab strategist. “You can’t deny that growth has weakened. That’s the only point in bringing up two quarters of negative growth in GDP.”

The Fed rate hikes are aimed at slowing the economy, and in turn a labor market in which job openings still outnumber available workers by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. Bank of America said this week that its proprietary measures of labor market momentum show an employment picture that is still strong but slowing, due in large part to central bank policy tightening.

The biggest reason for the retrenchment has been inflation that has been much stronger and more persistent than most policymakers had anticipated. Prices jumped 9.1% in July from a year ago, the fastest rate since November 1981.

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CHG %CHG
DJIA 32689.77 -37.05 -0.11
S&P 500 4127.51 -24.43 -0.59
Nasdaq Composite 12602.28 -118.30 -0.93
Japan: Nikkei 225 28175.87 243.67 0.87
UK: FTSE 100 7439.74 -8.32 -0.11
Crude Oil Futures 89.32 0.78 0.88
Gold Futures 1790.50 -16.40 -0.91
Yen 135.06 2.12 1.59
Euro 1.0180

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 32803.47 76.65 0.23
S&P 500 4145.19 -6.75 -0.16
Nasdaq Composite 12657.55 -63.03 -0.50
Japan: Nikkei 225 28175.87 243.67 0.87
UK: FTSE 100 7439.74 -8.32 -0.11
Crude Oil Futures 88.49 -0.05 -0.06
Gold Futures 1792.00 -14.90 -0.82
Yen 135.01 2.07 1.56
Euro 1.0184

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