Miércoles 21/09/22 La decisión del Fed

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Miércoles

Eventos económicos

Ventas de casas existentes
La decisión del Fed
Existing home sales (SAAR) Aug. 4.68 million 4.81 million
2 pm Federal Reserve statement -- 2.25-2.50%
2:30 pm Fed Chair Jerome Powell news conferen

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Futures ligeramente al alza

LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 84.19 -1.54 -1.80
Brent Crude Futures 90.66 0.04 0.04
Gold Futures 1674.20 3.10 0.19
Silver Futures 19.345 0.162 0.84
DJIA Futures 30828 27 0.09
S&P 500 Futures 3877.50

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El euro debajo del dólar

CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 0.9966 -0.0004 -0.04
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 143.73 0.01 0.01
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.1375 -0.0006 -0.05
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9639 -0.0004 -0.04
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 7.0454 0.0271 0.39
U.S. Dollar Index

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YIELD(%) YIELD CHG
U.S. 10 Year 3.551 -0.013
Germany 10 Year 1.928 0.123
U.K. 10 Year 3.295 0.160
Japan 10 Year 0.256 -0.004
Australia 10 Year 3.716 0.070
China 10 Year 2.685

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Copper September 20,22:19
Bid/Ask 3.5067 - 3.5081
Change +0.0078 +0.22%
Low/High 3.4981 - 3.5438
Charts

Nickel September 20,14:04
Bid/Ask 11.1622 - 11.2642
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 11.1622 - 11.2642
Charts

Aluminum September 20,22:19
Bid/Ask 1.1120 - 1.1127
Change -0.0039 -0.35%
Low/High 1.1084 - 1.1186
Charts

Zinc September 20,22:19
Bid/Ask 1.4244 - 1.4266
Change +0.0026 +0.19%
Low/High 1.4180 - 1.4287
Charts

Lead September 20,22:15
Bid/Ask 0.8500 - 0.8512
Change +0.0052 +0.62%
Low/High 0.8443 - 0.8594
Charts

Uranium Sep 12, 2022
Ux U308 price: 52.00
Change from
previous week +0.75

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Fed expected to hike rates by three-quarters of a point again, but its forecast may matter most
PUBLISHED TUE, SEP 20 202212:50 PM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO
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Patti Domm
@IN/PATTI-DOMM-9224884/
@PATTIDOMM
The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting Tuesday, and economists expect the central bank to announce a third consecutive three-quarter point rate hike.
“This is really moving into restrictive monetary policy territory. We will be moving into no man’s land,” said one economist. “We actually haven’t tightened policy to fight inflation since the early 1980s.”
Any surprises may come in the Fed’s quarterly projections on inflation, the economy and interest rates.
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It’s not what the Federal Reserve does, but what it says it could do in the future that will be most crucial when the central bank ends its two-day meeting Wednesday.

The Fed is expected to fire off another three-quarter point rate hike — its third in a row. It will also release quarterly forecasts for inflation, the economy, and the future path of interest rates Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.

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The Fed’s projections are always important, but this time they are even more so because investors have been trying to game how high it will raise interest rates and how much officials expect their actions could affect the economy.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET, and he is expected to emphasize the central bank will do what it takes to fight inflation and it is unlikely to reverse its rate hikes anytime soon.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, July 27, 2022.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, July 27, 2022.
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters
“I think he puts up a bulletin board behind him that says ‘Inflation Has to Come Down,’” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock chief investment officer for global fixed income. “I think he’s going to talk tough.”

The new forecasts also come as the central bank moves into a rate hiking zone that some economists expect will be more restrictive and could more seriously impact the economy.

“It’s not what they do, it’s what they say. This is our first actual tightening road map. We had theoretical road maps up until now, but from the Fed’s point of view they’re crossing into a world of tightening. That’s an important thing,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.


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The Fed has been lifting rates for seven months now, and will now be moving its target rate above what had been considered the neutral zone when inflation was low. Neutral is considered to be the interest rate level where Fed policy is no longer easy but not yet restrictive. The Fed has considered 2.5% to be neutral, and if it raises by three-quarters of a point, the fed funds rate will be in a range of 3% to 3.25%.

“This is really moving into restrictive monetary policy territory. We will be moving into no man’s land,” Swonk said. “We actually haven’t tightened policy to fight inflation since the early 1980s. Their goal is for a prolonged slowdown that grinds inflation slowly down and only gradually increases the unemployment rate. Whether they get there is another issue.”

Rate expectations jumped

Economists have been ratcheting up their forecasts for how high they expect the Fed to take the fed funds target before stopping the hikes. That level is called the terminal rate.

Expectations for Fed tightening increased dramatically in the past week, after a surprisingly hot August consumer price index report. Fed funds futures on Monday were pricing in a terminal rate of 4.5% by April, up from just around 4% before the inflation report was released last Tuesday.

The CPI rose 0.1% in August, while economists had expected a decline.

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“The CPI number last week caused a lot in terms of market repricing,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. Stocks have been selling off, and bond yields shot higher after that report, with some short-term Treasury yields rising above 4%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.59% Tuesday, the highest since April, 2011.

The Fed’s last forecast, in June, estimated the terminal rate for fed funds to be at 3.8% in 2023.

Economists now expect the Fed to raise the terminal rate forecast above 4%. Citigroup economists said they could even see a scenario where it could go above 5% if the Fed needs to get more aggressive in its inflation fight.

Goldman Sachs economists, in a report, said they expect the median forecast of Fed officials to show the funds rate at 4% to 4.25% at year-end, with another hike to a peak of 4.25% to 4.5% in 2023. They then expect a cut in 2024 and two more in 2025.

Labor market pain

Swonk expects some of that pain to show up a jump in the unemployment rate to above 5% by the end of next year.

In June, the Fed forecast the unemployment rate would be 3.7% this year, the same level as August. Fed officials also expected unemployment to rise to 3.9% in 2023 and 4.1% by 2024.

“I think they’re going to be a little light on the unemployment rate. I’m in the camp that they have to really increase the unemployment rate to really make progress with inflation,” said Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s head of macro strategies for global fixed income. “They’re in the camp of ‘We don’t have to do that.’”

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Caron said the Fed’s rate hiking is a process that will increase the risk of recession.

“By increasing recession risks, you lower inflation risks because it’s all about reducing demand in the economy,” he said. “The sacrifice is slower growth in the future.”

There are some investors betting the Fed will raise rates by a full percentage point, but most economists envision a 75 basis point increase. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point.

“I think 75 basis points is pretty much baked into the cake,” said Caron. “Now, it’s going to be about what they actually tell us ... . They don’t want to do forward guidance, but the reality is people are still going to look at them for forward guidance.”

‘Out-hawk’ the market

Powell has taken on a more hawkish tone. He gave a short and direct speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in late August, where he warned the economy could be in for pain from Fed tightening. The chair stressed that the Fed will use economic data to guide policy, and he has also emphasized that policymakers will hold rates at high levels until inflation eases.

“I think the message will be largely the same as Jackson Hole,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. “It will be about getting policy restrictive, getting it there for a period of time with the overarching goal being price stability.”

Caron said it’s possible Powell could sound inadvertently dovish because the Fed has tilted very hawkish.

“I think a 75 basis point move is pretty darn hawkish, the third one in a row,” said Caron. “I don’t think they have to work very hard to ‘out-hawk’ the market.”

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 86.15 1.70 2.01
Brent Crude Futures 92.88 2.26 2.49
Gold Futures 1682.10 11.00 0.66
Silver Futures 19.525 0.342 1.78
DJIA Futures 30875 74 0.24
S&P 500 Futures 3881

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 30844.02 137.79 0.45
S&P 500 3875.07 19.14 0.50
Nasdaq Composite 11468.45 43.40 0.38
Japan: Nikkei 225 27313.13 -375.29 -1.36
UK: FTSE 100 7233.12 40.46 0.56
Crude Oil Futures 82.96 -1.49 -1.76
Gold Futures 1675.30 4.20 0.25
Yen 144.13 0.41 0.29
Euro 0.9882

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 30884.81 178.58 0.58
S&P 500 3882.84 26.91 0.70
Nasdaq Composite 11500.12 75.07 0.66
Japan: Nikkei 225 27313.13 -375.29 -1.36
UK: FTSE 100 7237.64 44.98 0.63
Crude Oil Futures 83.05 -1.40 -1.66
Gold Futures 1675.70 4.60 0.28
Yen 144.29 0.57 0.40
Euro 0.9874

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https://www.bvl.com.pe/

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Copper September 21,12:19
Bid/Ask 3.4983 - 3.4994
Change -0.0007 -0.02%
Low/High 3.4888 - 3.5438
Charts

Nickel September 21,12:17
Bid/Ask 11.3087 - 11.3336
Change +0.1465 +1.31%
Low/High 11.1272 - 11.5432
Charts

Aluminum September 21,12:18
Bid/Ask 1.0952 - 1.0957
Change -0.0206 -1.85%
Low/High 1.0907 - 1.1186
Charts

Zinc September 21,12:19
Bid/Ask 1.4202 - 1.4209
Change -0.0015 -0.11%
Low/High 1.4167 - 1.4897
Charts

Lead September 21,12:17
Bid/Ask 0.8339 - 0.8404
Change -0.0109 -1.29%
Low/High 0.8339 - 0.8594
Charts

Uranium Sep 19, 2022
Ux U308 price: 47.50
Change f

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2-year Treasury yield tops 4% for the first time since 2007
PUBLISHED WED, SEP 21 20224:29 AM EDTUPDATED 18 MIN AGO
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Samantha Subin
@SAMANTHA_SUBIN
thumbnail
Sophie Kiderlin
@SKIDERLIN
In this article
US2Y
+0.057 (0.00%)
US10Y
UNCH
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note topped 4% for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday as traders bet the Federal Reserve has much further to go in raising rates to fight inflation.

The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury rose 4 basis points to 4.006%, to a level not seen since October 2007. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was last at 3.561%, down by roughly 1 basis point, after notching an 11-year high this week.

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The significant inversion, with short-term rates higher than long-term rates, points to the risk of a recession, some investors believe.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and 1 basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

TREASURYS
TICKER COMPANY YIELD CHANGE %CHANGE
US3M
U.S. 3 Month Treasury 3.33 -0.018 0
US1Y
U.S. 1 Year Treasury 4.073 0.035 0
US2Y
U.S. 2 Year Treasury 4.021 0.057 0
US5Y
U.S. 5 Year Treasury 3.784 0.031 0
US10Y
U.S. 10 Year Treasury 3.573 0 0
US30Y
U.S. 30 Year Treasury 3.57 -0.011 0

The Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, or 0.75 percentage point, as its September meeting comes to a close. But even that may not be enough, Michael Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, told CNBC’s “Fast Money,” explaining that while he is expecting a 75 basis point hike, he would argue for a 150 basis point hike as he believes rates are headed higher still.

Treasurys could also be a source of safety for investors, he added.

“Relative safety I would look at the front-end of the U.S. Treasury curve. You’ve got the 2-year treasury yielding just about 4%. It’s gone up enormously,” he said. “If you think about the real yield, which a lot of people in the bond market focus on, it’s probably not a bad place to hide out.”

The 2-year rate started 2022 trading at around 0.73%. Wednesday’s move puts it 328 basis points (3.28 percentage points) above that level.

2-year hits highest since October 2007
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In this article
US2Y
+0.057 (0.00%)
US10Y
UNCH

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 30183.78 -522.45 -1.70
S&P 500 3789.93 -66.00 -1.71
Nasdaq Composite 11220.19 -204.86 -1.79
Japan: Nikkei 225 27313.13 -375.29 -1.36
UK: FTSE 100 7237.64 44.98 0.63
Crude Oil Futures 83.23 -1.22 -1.44
Gold Futures 1680.90 9.80 0.59
Yen 143.92 0.20 0.14
Euro 0.9842

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Dow cierra 500 puntos menos después de que la Reserva Federal ofrezca otro aumento agresivo de las tasas

Samantha Subin

Carmen Reinicke

VER AHORA

VÍDEO05:46

El presidente de la Reserva Federal, Powell, ha sido claro sobre el plan de tasas de interés, dice el ex CEO de TD Ameritrade, Joe Moglia

Las acciones cayeron en el comercio volátil el miércoles después de que la Reserva Federal aumentara las tasas en tres cuartos de punto y pronosticara aumentos de tasas más considerables en su lucha contra la inflación, acciones ampliamente esperadas por los comerciantes.

Con el S&P 500 caído más del 8 % en el último mes y el 18 % para 2022 en dirección a las acciones de la Reserva Federal del miércoles, las acciones ya estaban fijando precios en una agresiva campaña de endurecimiento por parte de la Reserva Federal que podría empujar a la economía a una recesión.

El promedio industrial Dow Jones negoció por última vez 294 puntos menos, o un 0,9 %, después de subir hasta 314 puntos. El S&P 500 cayó un 0,7 % y el Nasdaq Composite cayó un 0,7 % menos.

Las acciones fueron volátiles a medida que los operadores analizaban la decisión de la tasa y los últimos comentarios de la conferencia de prensa de Powell.

La Reserva Federal elevó las tasas en los 75 puntos básicos ampliamente esperados y dijo que espera que su llamada tasa terminal alcance el 4,6 % para luchar contra la inflación persistentemente alta de EE. UU. Esa es la tasa a la que el banco central pondrá fin a su régimen de endurecimiento. El banco central también indicó que planea mantenerse agresivo, aumentando las tasas al 4,4 % para el próximo año.

"Solo se puede dirigir el barco hacia la tormenta durante tanto tiempo, pero finalmente llega un momento en el que necesita derribar las escotillas y con el tercer aumento consecutivo de la tasa de 75 puntos básicos de la Reserva Federal en los últimos cuatro meses, los participantes del mercado deberían estar buscando cobertura para capear la próxima tormenta", dijo Charlie Ripley, estratega de inversiones sénior

Los rendimientos del Tesoro aparecieron en las noticias. La tasa a 2 años, que alcanzó su nivel más alto desde 2007, se negoció por última vez en alrededor del 4,1 %. La tasa a 10 años aumentó a alrededor del 3,6 %.

Todos los principales sectores del S&P 500 terminaron la sesión en territorio negativo, lo que llevó a la baja de los servicios discrecionales y de comunicación para el consumidor.

HACE 17 MINUTOS

Las empresas de viajes y entretenimiento lideran a los mayores descensos en el S&P 500

Dieciocho de las 20 acciones que más cayeron en el S&P 500 fueron empresas de las industrias del entretenimiento y los viajes, sectores que se vieron más afectados durante una recesión económica.

El gigante de hoteles y casinos Caesars lideró el grupo, con una disminución de alrededor del 7,5 %.

Las empresas que se deslizan más representaron una amplia franja de subindustrias, incluyendo:

Hoteles y resorts (Hilton, Marriott, Wynn, Host Hotels & Resorts, Las Vegas Sands)

Eventos en directo (Live Nation)

Casinos (MGM)

Servicios de reservas de viajes en línea (Expedia, Booking Holdings)

Líneas de cruceros (Carnival, Royal Caribbean)

Marcas de entretenimiento (Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount, Fox)

Aerolíneas (United, Delta)

La empresa minera Freeport-McMoRan y la empresa de tecnología sanitaria Catalent fueron las únicas empresas entre los 20 principales declinantes que no estaban dentro de las industrias del entretenimiento y los viajes.