Lunes 28/11/22 Semana del empleo

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Lunes

Eventos económicos

Hablan Bullard and Williams

Entre los más importantes eventos de la semana tenemos el índice de precios de casas y la confianza del consumidor el Martes; el reporte del empleo privado, el PBI, el PMI de Chicago, el índice de casas pendientes y el libro beige el Miércoles; los seguros de desempleo, el ISM manufacturero, el gasto en construcción, el PCE y el
PMI de construcción el Jueves y las cifras del
Empleo el Viernes.

12 noon St. Louis Fed President James Bullard interviewed by MarketWatch
12 noon New York Fed President John Williams speaks at the Economic Club of New York
TUESDAY, NOV. 29
9 am S&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index (SAAR) Sept. -- -9.8%
9 am FHFA U.S. home price index (SAAR) Sept. -- -7.6%
10 am Consumer confidence index Nov. 100.0 102.5
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 30
8:15 am ADP employment report Nov. 200,000 239,000
8:30 am Real GDP (SAAR) revision Q3 2.7% 2.6%
8:30 am Real gross domestic income (SAAR) Q3 -- 0.1%
8:30 am Real domestic final sales (SAAR) revision Q3 -- 3.3%
8:30 am Trade in goods deficit (advance) Oct. -- -$92.2 billion
8:50 am Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks on small banks
9:45 am Chicago PMI Nov 47.3 45.2
10 am Job openings Oct. -- 10.7 million
10 am Quits Oct. -- 4.1 million
10 am Pending home sales index Oct. -- -10.2%
12:35 pm Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speaks at the Detroit Economic Club
1:30 pm Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Brookings Institution
2 pm Beige Book
THURSDAY, DEC. 1
8:30 am Initial jobless claims Nov. 26 230,000 240,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Nov. 19 -- `1.55 million
8:30 am PCE price index Oct. -- 0.3%
8:30 am Core PCE price index Oct. 0.3% 0.5%
8:30 am PCE price index (year-on-year) Oct. -- 6.2%
8:30 am Core PCE price index (year-on-year) Oct. 5.0% 5.1%
8:30 am Real disposable income (SAAR) Oct. -- 0.0%
8:30 am Real consumer spending (SAAR) Oct. -- 0.3%
9:30 am Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks
9:45 am S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) Nov. -- xx
10 am ISM manufacturing index Nov. 50.0% 50.2%
10 am Construction spending Oct. 0.2% 0.2%
3 pm Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr speaks at the American Enterprise Institute
Varies Motor vehicle sales (SAAR) Nov. -- 14.9 million
FRIDAY, DEC. 2
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Nov. 200,000 261,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate Nov. 3.7% 3.7%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings Nov. 0.3% 0.4%
8:30 am Labor-force participation rate, 25 to 54-year-olds Nov. -- 82.5%
10:15 am Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on regulation

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 74.23 -2.05 -2.69
Brent Crude Futures 81.49 -2.22 -2.65
Gold Futures 1748.80 -5.20 -0.30
Silver Futures 21.230 -0.200 -0.93
DJIA Futures 34182 -174 -0.51
S&P 500 Futures 4005.75 -26.75

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-58.96 -0.52
Japan: Nikkei 225 28162.83 -120.20 -0.42
UK: FTSE 100 7460.94 -25.73 -0.34
Crude Oil Futures 73.92 -2.36 -3.09
Gold Futures 1757.00 3.00 0.17
Yen 138.34 -0.85 -0.61
Euro 1.0468

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-1.14 -0.03
China: Shanghai Composite 3078.55 -23.14 -0.75
Japan: Nikkei 225 28162.83 -120.20 -0.42
UK: FTSE 100 7460.94

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 74.02 -2.26 -2.96
Brent Crude Futures 81.28 -2.43 -2.90
Gold Futures 1756.50 2.50 0.14
Silver Futures 21.440 0.010 0.05
DJIA Futures 34176 -180 -0.52
S&P 500 Futures 4004.00

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LAST CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0471 0.0071 0.68
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 138.34 -0.85 -0.61
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2097 0.0003 0.02
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9441 -0.0019 -0.20
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 7.1998 0.0344 0.48
U.S. Dollar Index 105

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U.S. 10 Year 3.689 -0.011
Germany 10 Year 2.003 0.027
U.K. 10 Year 3.109 -0.011
Japan 10 Year 0.258 -0.002
Australia 10 Year 3.525 -0.061
China 10 Year

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Copper November 28,07:39
Bid/Ask 3.6573 - 3.6582
Change +0.0399 +1.10%
Low/High 3.5789 - 3.6699
Charts

Nickel November 28,07:30
Bid/Ask 11.6422 - 11.6672
Change +0.1270 +1.10%
Low/High 11.2589 - 11.6944
Charts

Aluminum November 28,07:39
Bid/Ask 1.1607 - 1.1612
Change -0.0057 -0.49%
Low/High 1.1542 - 1.1673
Charts

Zinc November 28,07:39
Bid/Ask 1.3213 - 1.3222
Change +0.0014 +0.10%
Low/High 1.3023 - 1.3293
Charts

Lead November 28,07:39
Bid/Ask 0.9674 - 0.9681
Change +0.0120 +1.26%
Low/High 0.9473 - 0.9712
Charts

Uranium Nov 21, 2022
Ux U308 price: 50.25
Change from

[admin]

Stock Market Today: What to Watch
The Wall Street Journal’s full markets coverage.
Nov 28, 2022 at 7:46 am ET
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View highlights only
Today's Developments
Stock futures and oil are falling, while Treasurys are rallying. Investors are evaluating mounting protests in China against the government's zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19, as well as a surge in new infections in the country. Stocks have also come under pressure in mainland China and Hong Kong.

U.S. stocks ended a shortened trading session Friday mixed, with markets subdued following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. Read Friday's markets round-up here.

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YM00
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-176.00
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ES00
$4005.25 USD
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$11707.00 USD
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XX:BUXX
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Updated 20 min ago
Oil Prices Fall on Chinese Demand Worries
By Anna Hirtenstein
SHARE
Crude-oil futures, change in price, past three days
Source: FactSet
Note: Shows most-actively traded contracts.
Brent
WTI
Nov. 25
Nov. 28
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
%
Oil prices are falling, after Covid-19 cases surged in China, and amid uncertainty about how the Chinese government will respond to an eruption of protests against its zero-tolerance approach.

The most actively traded contract for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, recently declined 2.9% to trade at $81.30 a barrel. If sustained through the day, that level would mark the lowest settle in 10 months. The U.S. benchmark, WTI, retreated 2.8%.

Industrial metals also traded lower, with copper down 0.5% and nickel down 2%.

"There's worries that the demand could deteriorate even further if the government steps in harder and orders an even stronger lockdown," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "That's really the nervousness in the market."

"It is going to be a critical few weeks for China about how they handle this new situation. So the market is trading on the side of caution. Selling first, asking questions later," Mr. Hansen said.

Talks are due to continue this week about a price cap on Russian oil by the European Union, while the OPEC+ cartel meets next weekend. The EU's ban on Russian crude imports begins on Dec. 5.

For a discussion of the protests, check out the Monday morning edition of the WSJ's What's News podcast:

[admin]

China protests send global stocks lower as strategists see Covid disruption persisting
PUBLISHED MON, NOV 28 20226:32 AM EST
Elliot Smith
@ELLIOTSMITHCNBC
Almost three years of lockdown measures have dragged down the Chinese economy and pushed youth unemployment to nearly 20%.
UBS strategists noted that a widening of infections could exacerbate global supply chain interruptions and cause domestic headwinds to spill into global markets.
“While the setback to sentiment from protests in mainland and tightening of Covid restrictions in several cities are unlikely to bode well for sentiment, we are cautious not to interpret these as overly bearish,” strategists at Citi said in a note Monday.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022. US stocks declined following midterm elections that failed to yield a Republican sweep. Treasuries and the dollar caught bids in a sign of deteriorating risk sentiment. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Global stocks pulled back on Monday after rare protests erupted across China over the weekend amid growing unrest over the country’s zero-Covid policy.

An apparent easing earlier this month had fueled hopes of a gradual easing of the country’s strict Covid controls. However, local lockdowns in recent days in response to surging infections have seen fears resurface over both the domestic economic recovery and global supply chains.


Shares in Asia-Pacific retreated on Monday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shedding 1.6% to lead losses, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 dropped 0.9% during morning trade in Europe. U.S. stock futures also pointed to a lower open on Wall Street Monday.

Almost three years of lockdown measures have dragged down the Chinese economy and pushed youth unemployment to nearly 20%. Meanwhile, profits at China’s industrial companies fell 3% from January to October as Covid curbs stymied activity.

China protests are serious for Beijing because they're so widespread, says CNBC's Ted KempWATCH NOW
VIDEO06:34
China protests are serious because they’re so widespread, says CNBC’s Ted Kemp
Strategists at Citi said the restrictions in relatively less affected cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai highlighted the difficulty China faces in moving toward reopening.

“The path to re-opening is likely to be noisy with local infections at risk of remaining high in winter months and until vaccination rates rise more meaningfully,” Citi strategists said in a note Monday.

“While the setback to sentiment from protests in mainland and tightening of Covid restrictions in several cities are unlikely to bode well for sentiment, we are cautious not to interpret these as overly bearish.”


‘Covid coma’

Though the protests have grown in recent days, coverage of them has been limited in China and the risks associated with another large-scale outbreak are heightened by an aging population and low take-up of vaccines.

As such, Rory Green, head of China and Asia research at TS Lombard, said that the government is unlikely to change course owing to this “health care reality,” and said that despite the prospect of more targeted and optimized lockdowns, the “upshot for the economy is bleak.”

“We think China stays in this Covid coma until at least Q2 2023 and real growth — not that reported by officials — is going to struggle to top 1% over the next five months,” he told CNBC Monday.

The government has been ramping up efforts to support the economy, including its embattled property sector. The People’s Bank of China said last week that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points from Dec. 5., freeing up around $70 billion to underpin the country’s slowing economy.

People in China are losing patience with Covid controls as protests break outWATCH NOW
VIDEO01:57
People in China are losing patience with Covid controls as protests break out
However, Green argued that the hit from lockdowns, particularly to consumer confidence, service sector jobs and wage growth, was so substantial that the PBOC’s monetary policy moves are “effectively pushing on a string.”

“They’re actually very loose already, certainly relative to demand, so these rate cuts will help a bit at the margin — the measures to support the property developers do substantially lower the tail risk of a disorderly exit for some of these developers — but in terms of re-accelerating the economy, it’s really a Covid and a consumer story and that’s not going to come until Q2 of next year,” he added.

Supply chain disruptions

These comments were echoed by Swiss lender UBS, which said in a note Monday that rising Covid-19 infections would remain a significant drag on growth.

“It will take more time to understand the impact of the reported public opposition to Covid curbs
and the official response, but the latest developments add to uncertainty for offshore investors and may weigh on sentiment,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. UBS does not yet see this impacting its base case for a full reopening around the third quarter of 2023.

Haefele noted that a widening of infections could exacerbate global supply chain interruptions and cause domestic headwinds to spill into global markets.

Thus far, supply chains have been less severely affected than during April’s outbreak as the wave has not extended to China’s major ports or manufacturing hubs, but iPhone assembler Foxconn has faced large protests from workers over the past week over working and living conditions.

Haefele noted that this is likely to result in a 30% reduction in Foxconn shipments in November, with risks remaining that broader supply chain pressures could rise, potentially affecting exports of machinery and household appliances.

“So, we do not expect economic or market headwinds in China to abate significantly over the coming months. Policy support remains focused on stabilizing the economy, rather than spurring growth, in our view,” Haefele said, adding that the mounting social discontent “adds to execution and implementation risks” for Beijing.

As a result, we remain neutral on Chinese equities. We also view China’s sluggish recovery as a risk for the global economy and markets,” Haefele said.

“Against this backdrop, we advise investors to focus on defensive assets in both equity and fixed income markets.”

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34017.13 -329.90 -0.96
S&P 500 3988.44 -37.68 -0.94
Nasdaq Composite 11115.82 -110.54 -0.98
Japan: Nikkei 225 28162.83 -120.20 -0.42
UK: FTSE 100 7474.02 -12.65 -0.17
Crude Oil Futures 76.80 0.52 0.68
Gold Futures 1744.20 -9.80 -0.56
Yen 138.82 -0.37 -0.27
Euro 1.0378

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https://www.bvl.com.pe/

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 33965.59 -381.44 -1.11
S&P 500 3980.38 -45.74 -1.14
Nasdaq Composite 11110.83 -115.52 -1.03
Japan: Nikkei 225 28162.83 -120.20 -0.42
UK: FTSE 100 7474.02 -12.65 -0.17
Crude Oil Futures 77.13 0.85 1.11
Gold Futures 1740.30 -13.70 -0.78
Yen 138.95 -0.24 -0.18
Euro 1.0362

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U.S. Stocks Fall on China’s Zero-Covid Protests
Nationwide protests in China threaten to inject new volatility into markets

Caitlin McCabe
Updated Nov. 28, 2022 at 1:15 pm ET
U.S. stocks pulled back and oil prices slid Monday as widespread protests across China against the country’s zero-Covid policy sparked worries among investors about the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

Oil prices dropped, with Brent crude down 0.2% to $83.45 a barrel, putting it on pace for its fourth straight loss. It fell below $82 a barrel earlier in the session, the lowest level for the international oil benchmark since January.

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The U.S. stock market has mounted a strong recovery in recent weeks on optimism that the Federal Reserve will soon slow its interest-rate increases, but the weekend protests in several Chinese cities threatened to inject fresh volatility into the market. The demonstrations have been significant not only for their size but also their rarity: Open displays of anger are unusual in China, and having protests across several cities is especially significant.

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China’s economy is already on delicate footing, and the protests have raised concerns about what direction it takes from here. Strategists and investors say they are contemplating the risk that the protests could result in stronger lockdowns, potentially denting the economy even further.

“I just don’t think [authorities] will want to look as though they are backing down in response to protests,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “If you keep having rolling lockdowns, consumer demand will be dented, there will be an ongoing effect on supply chains…and there could be a drop in demand for key commodities.”

In a rare show of defiance, crowds in China gathered for the third night as protests against Covid restrictions spread to Beijing, Shanghai and other cities. People held blank sheets of paper, symbolizing censorship, and demanded the Chinese president step down. Photo: Noel Celis/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Many investors and strategists are trying to ascertain the consequences on economies outside China, particularly in Europe and the U.S., which are already seeing signs of slowing growth. In the latest sign of the wide ripple effects from China, Bloomberg News reported that Apple could see a production shortfall of close to 6 million iPhone Pro units this year due to the unrest at the Chinese factory in Zhengzhou where most of the world’s latest iPhone models are assembled. Apple shares declined 2.2%.

Government bond prices slipped, sending yields higher. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.709%, from 3.701% Friday.

Later Monday, investors will monitor separate speaking engagements from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and New York Fed President John Williams for potential clues about their outlook for interest rates and the U.S. economy. November jobs data will be released Friday, which will likely factor heavily into the Fed’s December interest-rate decision.

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Energy companies fell along with oil prices. Diamondback Energy dropped 3%, Occidental Petroleum fell 1.5% and Exxon Mobil declined 1.9%.


Stocks finished mixed in a shortened trading day on Friday.Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Chinese stocks fell, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falling 1.6% after tumbling more than 4% earlier in the session. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite slid 0.7%.

In Europe, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.5%.

Write to Caitlin McCabe at caitlin.mccabe@wsj.com

[admin]

Copper November 28,13:19
Bid/Ask 3.6402 - 3.6411
Change +0.0228 +0.63%
Low/High 3.5789 - 3.6699
Charts

Nickel November 28,13:17
Bid/Ask 11.5160 - 11.5613
Change +0.0008 +0.01%
Low/High 11.2589 - 11.7102
Charts

Aluminum November 28,13:19
Bid/Ask 1.1691 - 1.1694
Change +0.0027 +0.23%
Low/High 1.1542 - 1.1728
Charts

Zinc November 28,13:19
Bid/Ask 1.3295 - 1.3315
Change +0.0095 +0.72%
Low/High 1.3023 - 1.3357
Charts

Lead November 28,13:19
Bid/Ask 0.9584 - 0.9593
Change +0.0030 +0.32%
Low/High 0.9473 - 0.9712
Charts

Uranium Nov 21, 2022
Ux U308 price: 50.25
Change fro