Lunes 05/11/22 PMI e ISM de servicios

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Lunes

Eventos económicos

PMI de servicios
ISM de servicios
Órdenes de fábricas

Entre los eventos más importantes de la semana tenemos el déficit comercial el Martes; costo de la unidad laboral el Miércoles; crédito del consumidor, productividad y el los seguros de desempleo el Jueves; el índice de los precios de los productores, el sentimiento del consumidor, los inventarios mayoristas y las expectativas de inflación a cinco años.

9:45 am S&P U.S. services PMI (final) Nov. 46.2 46.1
10 am ISM services index Nov. 53.7 54.4
10 am Factory orders Oct. 0.7% 0.2%
TUESDAY, DEC. 6
8:30 am Trade deficit Oct. -$80.0 billion -$73.3 billion
WEDNESDAY, DEC. 7
8:30 am Productivity (SAAR) revision Q3 0.4% 0.3%
8:30 am Unit labor costs (SAAR) revision Q3 3.5% 3.5%
3 pm Consumer credit (level change) Oct. $30 billion $25 billion
THURSDAY, DEC. 8
8:30 am Initial jobless claims Dec. 3 230,000 225,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Nov. 26 -- 1.61 million
FRIDAY, DEC. 9
8:30 am Producer price index final demand Nov. 0.2% 0.2%
10 am UMich consumer sentiment index (early) Dec. 56.8 56.8
10 am UMich 5-year inflation expectations (early) Dec. -- 3.0%
10 am Wholesale inventories revision Oct.

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 80.89 0.91 1.14
Brent Crude Futures 86.52 0.95 1.11
Gold Futures 1820.90 11.30 0.62
Silver Futures 23.550 0.300 1.29
DJIA Futures 34436 -23 -0.07
S&P 500 Futures 4071.25

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4071.70 -4.87 -0.12
China: Shanghai Composite 3205.38 49.24 1.56
Japan: Nikkei 225 27808.74 30.84 0.11
UK: FTSE 100 7556

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1461.50 -20.95 -0.18
Japan: Nikkei 225 27808.74 30.84 0.11
UK: FTSE 100 7556.23 -2.26 -0.03
Crude Oil Futures 80.88 0.90 1.13
Gold Futures 1820.80 11.20 0.62
Yen 134.27 -0.04 -0.03
Euro 1.0582 0.0040 0

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Copper December 04,22:39
Bid/Ask 3.8025 - 3.8038
Change +0.0759 +2.04%
Low/High 3.7128 - 3.8111
Charts

Nickel December 02,14:47
Bid/Ask 12.6557 - 12.8597
Change +0.0118 +0.09%
Low/High 12.6439 - 12.8597
Charts

Aluminum December 04,22:39
Bid/Ask 1.2574 - 1.2580
Change +0.0041 +0.33%
Low/High 1.2066 - 1.2603
Charts

Zinc December 04,22:39
Bid/Ask 1.4019 - 1.4039
Change +0.0118 +0.85%
Low/High 1.3774 - 1.4060
Charts

Lead December 04,22:38
Bid/Ask 1.0003 - 1.0015
Change +0.0100 +1.01%
Low/High 0.9738 - 1.0017
Charts

Uranium Nov 28, 2022
Ux U308 price: 50.00
Change from
previous week

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-gathe ... 54?mod=mhp

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461.50 -20.95 -0.18
Japan: Nikkei 225 27820.40 42.50 0.15
UK: FTSE 100 7571.76 15.53 0.21
Crude Oil Futures 81.98 2.00 2.50
Gold Futures 1807.60 -2.00 -0.11
Yen 135.24 0.93 0.69
Euro 1.0566

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China: Shanghai Composite 3211.81 55.67 1.76
Japan: Nikkei 225 27820.40 42.50 0.15
UK: FTSE 100

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 81.98 2.00 2.50
Brent Crude Futures 87.71 2.14 2.50
Gold Futures 1807.70 -1.90 -0.10
Silver Futures 23.170 -0.080 -0.34
DJIA Futures 34295 -164 -0.48
S&P 500 Futures 4053.75

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34010.90 -418.98 -1.22
S&P 500 4006.83 -64.87 -1.59
Nasdaq Composite 11262.07 -199.43 -1.74
Japan: Nikkei 225 27820.40 42.50 0.15
UK: FTSE 100 7567.54 11.31 0.15
Crude Oil Futures 78.49 -1.49 -1.86
Gold Futures 1782.80 -26.80 -1.48
Yen 136.62 2.31 1.72
Euro 1.0494

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LAST CHG %CHG
DJIA 34014.30 -415.58 -1.21
Nasdaq Composite 11263.78 -197.72 -1.73
S&P 500 4007.17 -64.53 -1.58
China: Shanghai Composite 3211.81 55.67 1.76
Japan: Nikkei 225 27820.40 42.50 0.15
UK: FTSE 100 7567.54

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LAST CHG %CHG
Crude Oil Futures 78.52 -1.46 -1.83
Brent Crude Futures 84.19 -1.38 -1.61
Gold Futures 1783.00 -26.60 -1.47
Silver Futures 22.395 -0.855 -3.68
DJIA Futures 34049 -410 -1.19
S&P 500 Futures 4011.50

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LAST CHG %CHG
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0495 -0.0047 -0.45
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 136.62 2.31 1.72
U.K. Pound (GBP/USD) 1.2182 -0.0112 -0.91
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9423 0.0054 0.58
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.9620 -0.0626 -0.89
U.S. Dollar Index 105.22

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Dow se desliza 400 puntos por temor a que la Reserva Federal siga entrando en recesión

Samantha Subin

Sarah Min

VER AHORA

VIDEO03:54

Los inversores deberían prepararse para un mercado volátil en enero, dice Savita Subramanian de BofA

Las acciones cayeron el lunes por temor a que la Reserva Federal pueda seguir endurecándose hasta que ponga la economía en recesión.

El promedio industrial Dow Jones cayó en 492 puntos, o un 1,4 %, mientras que el S&P 500 y el Nasdaq Composite cayeron un 1,9% y un 2 %, respectivamente.

Una lectura más caliente de lo esperado de los Servicios de ISM de noviembre alimentó aún más las preocupaciones de que la Reserva Federal continuará creciendo después de que el índice superara las estimaciones de Dow Jones y aumentara a partir de octubre.

Los rendimientos de los bonos aumentaron a medida que las acciones cayeron, y el rendimiento del último mercado del Tesoro de referencia a 10 años subieron 8 puntos básicos al 3,586 %.

"Claramente, los mercados de valores quieren subir, pero eso depende mucho de que la inflación esté bajo control", dijo Peter Essele, jefe de gestión de carteras de Commonwealth Financial Network. "Y así, cuando tienes impresiones por encima de las expectativas en cualquier número económico que salga, eso tiende a alimentar las preocupaciones inflacionarias, lo que envía tasas más altas".

En otras noticias, las acciones de Tesla perdieron alrededor del 6 % en los informes de un recorte de la producción en su fábrica de Shanghái, mientras que las acciones de los casinos vinculados a Macao ganaron con la esperanza de aliviar las restricciones de Covid-19. Las acciones de VF Corp. cayeron un 10 % después de recortar sus perspectivas.

Los inversores están pendientes de nuevos datos económicos antes de la reunión de políticas de la Reserva Federal de la próxima semana. Tras un discurso la semana pasada del presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, los mercados esperan en gran medida que el banco central apruebe un aumento de la tasa de interés de 0,5 puntos porcentuales. Eso marcaría un descenso de una serie de cuatro aumentos consecutivos de 0,75 puntos porcentuales.

Sin embargo, Powell también dijo que la "tasa terminal", o punto en el que la Reserva Federal deja de aumentar, probablemente "tendrá que ser algo más alta" de lo indicado en la reunión de septiembre. Eso podría significar una tasa de fondos federales que termine por encima del 5 %, de su rango objetivo actual del 3,75%-4%.

El informe de nóminas no agrícolas del viernes alimentó aún más la ansiedad de la Reserva Federal del mercado, ya que las ganancias promedio por hora aumentaron por encima de las expectativas. Las presiones salariales sobre la inflación podrían obligar a la Reserva Federal a adoptar una postura aún más agresiva.

Los principales promedios están saliendo de una segunda semana positiva consecutiva.

A pesar del reciente repunte, Mike Wilson, el principal estratega de acciones de Morgan Stanley en EE. UU., dijo que los inversores deberían considerar obtener ganancias, ya que es probable que la recompensa de riesgo por acciones esté limitada a medida que el S&P se acerque al rango objetivo táctico original del banco de 4.000 a 4.150.

"Como se sugirió hace dos semanas, para que este rally táctico suba, las tasas de back-end tendrían que caer", dijo en una nota a los clientes el lunes. "Avance rápido hasta hoy y eso es lo que ha pasado. Sin embargo, ahora estamos justo en nuestros objetivos al alza originales y recomendamos tomar ganancias antes de que el Oso regrese en serio".

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Fed to Weigh Higher Interest Rates Next Year While Slowing Rises This Month
Brisk wage growth may lead officials to consider raising policy rate above 5% in 2023 while approving a 0.5-point increase in December

Nick Timiraos
Updated Dec. 5, 2022 at 10:57 am ET

Federal Reserve officials have signaled plans to raise their benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point at their meeting next week, but elevated wage pressures could lead them to continue lifting it to higher levels than investors currently expect.

A smaller 0.5-point increase would mark a new phase of policy tightening as they calibrate how much higher to lift rates. Policy makers expect price pressures to ease meaningfully next year, but brisk wage growth or higher inflation in labor-intensive service sectors of the economy could lead more of them to support raising their benchmark rate next year above the 5% currently anticipated by investors.

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They want to guard against raising rates too little and allowing inflation to resurge, or raising them too much and causing unnecessary economic weakness, according to recent public comments and interviews.

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Because it takes time for interest-rate changes to slow the economy and even longer to influence inflation, “if you’re waiting for actual evidence that inflation is coming down, it’s very difficult not to over-tighten,” Mr. Powell said last week. “We think that slowing down at this point is a good way to balance the risks.”

Markets rallied after Mr. Powell’s comments last week, with some investors interpreting them as a shift from comments he made this past summer and fall. He has told associates that he hasn’t changed his view that the bigger mistake the Fed could make would be to fail to get inflation under control.

A 0.5 point rate rise this month would bring the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the highest level since December 2007.

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The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, rose 6% in October from a year earlier. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.

Officials will see another inflation reading on Dec. 13, the first morning of their two-day meeting, when the Labor Department releases the consumer-price index for November. Signs of continued strong price pressures could lead more of them to consider raising rates by 0.5 point at consecutive meetings this month and in February.

Officials could signal a slightly more aggressive rate outlook in their new quarterly economic projections to be released after the coming meeting. Those could show that policy makers expect to keep raising rates in at least quarter-point increments until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a Brookings Institution event that the central bank is prepared to slow the pace of rate rises as soon as its December meeting. Photo: Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg News
Most officials in September penciled in rates rising to between 4.5% and 5% next year. That landing zone could rise to between 4.75% and 5.25% in the new projections.

“Stronger demand for labor, stronger demand in the economy than I previously thought, and then somewhat higher underlying inflation suggest a modestly higher path for policy relative to September,” said New York Fed President John Williams, a top adviser to Mr. Powell, this past week. “Not a massive change, but somewhat higher.”

Officials are likely to debate next week how much to raise rates in February, with views shaped by how they see underlying price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market stays tight, they could be more divided over how to proceed.

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Some officials could seek to push through another half-point rate rise in February because they see a greater risk that inflation won’t decline enough next year. Without signs of slower hiring, they could worry that inflation could pick up again.

Others see inflation as being driven primarily by supply bottlenecks and an overheated housing market. They think that as activity cools and supply-chain woes ease, inflation will rapidly decline and be closer to 2% in the coming year, and they would prefer a quarter-point rate increase in February.

Some of these officials have indicated that they might oppose another 0.75 point rate rise this month. Fed policy makers agreed unanimously to the previous three increases of that size.

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Kansas City Fed President Esther George has advocated for slowing the pace of rate increases but said this past month that the central bank needs more signs of economic weakness before it can debate when to pause. “This would not really be the time to begin to speculate about that because you don’t have much evidence yet that you are beginning to make the kind of progress that I think we’d want to see,” she said in an interview this past month.

Mr. Powell said it is hard to judge how high rates need to rise to slow the economy because of postpandemic difficulties forecasting inflation, supply bottlenecks, and shifts in demand.

“We have a broad set of thoughts about where that destination might be, but we could be wrong,” he said last week during an event at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. “We’ll have to see.”

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He outlined two possible strategies for proceeding. One would be to quickly raise the fed-funds rate well above the 5% level broadly anticipated in financial markets and then lower it right away if it turns out they have gone too far. Another would be to “go slower and feel your way a little bit to what we think is the right level” and then “to hold on longer at a high level and not loosen policy too early.”

Mr. Powell said he favors the second course. “We wouldn’t just raise rates and try to crash the economy and then clean up afterward. I wouldn’t take that approach at all,” he said.

The labor market remains a source of concern because officials are worried that rising prices could be sustained by continued income growth and strong demand for workers. They are uneasy because even if corporate hiring executives and workers expect high inflation to subside over the next few years, employees could demand and receive bigger raises that keep paychecks and prices rising in lockstep.

“When people start saying, ‘Well, I know you’re going to bring inflation back down to 2%, but right now it’s 7%, and I need a 7% raise just to keep up.’ And then the firm says, ‘Well, I can’t eat that. I’ve got to pass that through to my customers,’ you start building this in,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said this past month. “And that’s where things get out of control.”

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Mr. Powell said last week that wage growth had been running around 1.5 to 2 percentage points too high. “We want wages to go up strongly, but they have got to go up at a level that is consistent with 2% inflation over time,” he said.

He made his comments two days before the Labor Department reported that hourly earnings growth increased in November at its strongest pace since January.

Mr. Williams, the New York Fed president, said last week that he expects the unemployment rate, at 3.7% this past month, to rise to between 4.5% and 5% next year, up from an earlier projection of around 4.5%. “There is a path where unemployment peaks at around 4.5% if things go well, if inflation turns,” he said. But “it could be that it has to be higher” if inflation doesn’t cooperate, he said.

Fed officials’ recent comments suggest “they now understand they have got to get a…significant rise in unemployment to make sure wages aren’t an inflation problem,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America.

Officials are speaking subtly about those objectives, Mr. Harris said, because “the Fed doesn’t want to come out and say, ‘We let things run too hot, and now we’re going to fix it.’”

Write to Nick Timiraos at