Lunes 18/12/22 Índice de los constructores

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-bac ... 02?mod=mhp

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Homebuilder sentiment drops for the 12th straight month, but a bottom may be near
PUBLISHED MON, DEC 19 202210:00 AM EST
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Diana Olick
@IN/DIANAOLICK
@DIANAOLICKCNBC
@DIANAOLICK
Homebuilder sentiment dropped for the 12th straight month to the lowest level since 2012, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
Regionally, sentiment was strongest in the Northeast and weakest in the West, where prices are highest.
About 62% of builders are using incentives to bolster sales, including providing mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers and offering price reductions.
A worker walks on the roof of a new home under construction in Carlsbad, California.
A worker walks on the roof of a new home under construction in Carlsbad, California.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Homebuilders were less confident about their business in December, but they are starting to see potential green shoots.

Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market dropped two points to 31 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is considered negative.


This is the 12th straight month of declines and the lowest reading since mid 2012, with the exception of a very brief drop at the start of the Covid pandemic. The index stood at 84 in December of last year.

“The silver lining in this HMI report is that it is the smallest drop in the index in the past six months, indicating that we are possibly nearing the bottom of the cycle for builder sentiment,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “Mortgage rates are down from above 7% in recent weeks to about 6.3% today, and for the first time since April, builders registered an increase in future sales expectations.”

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell three points to 36, buyer traffic was unchanged at 20, but sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 35.

Regionally, sentiment was strongest in the Northeast and weakest in the West, where prices are highest.

The NAHB continues to blame high mortgage rates, which despite the recent drop are still about twice what they were a year ago. That has caused affordability to plummet.


Mortgage applications rose last week on lower ratesWATCH NOW
VIDEO02:05
Mortgage applications rose last week on lower rates
“In this high inflation, high mortgage rate environment, builders are struggling to keep housing affordable for home buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a builder and developer from Savannah, GA “Our latest survey shows 62% of builders are using incentives to bolster sales, including providing mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers and offering price reductions.”

But Konter noted that with construction costs up more than 30% since the beginning of this year, builders are still having a hard time cutting prices. Roughly 35% of builders reduced homes prices in December, down from 36% in November. The average price reduction was 8%, up from 5% to 6% earlier in the year.

“NAHB is expecting weaker housing conditions to persist in 2023, and we forecast a recovery coming in 2024, given the existing nationwide housing deficit of 1.5 million units and future, lower mortgage rates anticipated with the Fed easing monetary policy in 2024,” said Dietz.

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Gold Futures 1796.30 -3.90 -0.22
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[Carlos38]

19 dic (Reuters) -Las acciones de Wall Street cerraron en baja el lunes por cuarta sesión consecutiva y con el Nasdaq liderando los descensos, ya que los inversores rehuyeron las apuestas más arriesgadas, preocupados por que la campaña de endurecimiento de la Reserva Federal pueda empujar a la economía estadounidense a una recesión.
* Los tres principales índices bursátiles estadounidenses se han visto presionados desde el miércoles, cuando el presidente de la Fed adoptó un tono duro al subir las tasas de interés el banco central. Jerome Powell prometió nuevas alzas, pese a que datos muestran señales de debilitamiento de la economía.

[Carlos38]

la automotriz Rivian en 22; con poca deuda (test ácido de 6) e ingresos en crecimiento. que opinan?

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Rivian
cember 12, 2022 03:39 PM GMT
RivianAutomotive,Inc. | NorthAmerica
Rivian Hunkers Down, Pauses JV with Mercedes Vans
MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
Adam Jonas, CFA
EQUITY ANALYST
Adam.Jonas@morganstanley.com
Evan Silverberg, CFA, CPA
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
Evan.Silverberg@morganstanley.com
Daniela M Haigian
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
Daniela.Haigian@morganstanley.com Matias B Ovrum
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
Matias.Ovrum@morganstanley.com
Diego Ortega Laya
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
Diego.Ortega.Laya@morganstanley.com
+1 212 761-1726
+1 212 761-4376
+1 212 761-6071
+1 212 761-5956
+1 212 761-9835
Stock Rating
Overweight
Industry View
In-Line
Price Target
$55.00
Our OW thesis on Rivian is predicated on the view that the company prioritize execution of its R1T/RI1 and EDV business as a '1-plant' company with an focus on cash flow management. The company can't spend its way into a dilutive cap raise this year for the stock to reach our $55 target.
Rivian announced on Monday its plans to pause its JV with Mercedes-Benz Vans, three months after the companies entered a partnership to make electric vans in Europe. (Mercedes-Benz Group is covered by Harald Hendrikse.) Rivian said it will focus on its consumer and existing commercial business as it tries to becomes cash flow positive in its US operations. "The pausing of this partnership reflects our process of continually evaluating our major capital projects, while taking into consideration our current and anticipated economic conditions," Rivian CFO Claire McDonough said in a statement.
A fairly stark reversal of the company's messaging from just three months ago.
We had written favorably about the MOU signed between Mercedes and Rivian for joint eVan production in Europe; MB brings serious manufacturing chops, benefits from synergies, faster time-to-market and reduced risk, and it allows Rivian to focus on extreme vertical integration in its 'home' North American market (Rivian/Mercedes-Benz JV: Improves Capital Efficiency, Reduces Risk).
The great EV 'hunker-down' has begun. We see Rivian's delaying of the Mercedes eVan plan as consistent with a broader trend we expect to see with more 'non- Tesla' EV players (both startups and legacy players) lowering, pushing-out... potentially even cancelling/writing down portions of their EV plans they had previously launched. All part of our view that auto stock performance for 2023 will be largely dependent upon capital allocation decisions including what capital to not allocate to loss-making EV investment.
Despite the favorable outlook we had for this partnership, we believe this announcement demonstrates Rivian's capital discipline as it reprioritizes projects to conserve cash and avoid raising additional capital heading into an uncertain macro environment next year. The pause of its JV with MB demonstrates Rivian management's flexibility of strategy since the IPO. At the time of Rivian's market introduction, we had expected Rivian to take a 'go it alone' strategy with respect to establishing commercial and manufacturing presence in international markets. Changes in capital markets and the macro/geopolitical backdrop this year appear to have influenced the strategy. We applaud the
Rivian Automotive, Inc. ( RIVN.O, RIVN US )
Autos & Shared Mobility / United States of America
Stock Rating
Industry View
Price target
Shr price, close (Dec 9, 2022) Mkt cap, curr (mm)
52-Week Range
Overweight In-Line $55.00 $27.29 $28,218 $121.64-19.25
Fiscal Year Ending
ModelWare EPS ($) Prior ModelWare EPS ($)
P/E
EPS ($)§
Div yld (%)
12/21 12/22e 12/23e 12/24e
(23.00) (7.68) (6.46) (4.54) ----
NM NM NM NM (8.73) (6.86) (5.71) (3.71) ----
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
QUARTERLY MODELWARE EPS ($)
2022e 2022e 2023e Quarter 2021 Prior Current Prior
-- -- -- --
2023e Current
Q1 (0.61)
Q2 (0.87)
Q3 (12.21)
Q4 (4.82)
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data
(1.77)a (1.88)a (1.88)a
(2.21)
- - - -
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
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strategy of teaming up with a top pedigree player like Mercedes-Benz instead of trying to unseat them, and then having the foresight to put these plans on pause to keep cash burn minimal in potentially shaky capital markets in 2023.
Key hurdles for Rivian's cash flow profile into FY23/FY24. We forecast RIVN to end FY22 with $10.6bn of gross cash & cash equivalents. Our forecast for FY23 FCF is currently negative $4.7bn which is based on $3.8bn negative Adj EBITDA (adding back nearly $1bn of SBC), $1.8bn of capex and approximately $1.1bn of positive change (source) in net working capital. This forecast would bring FY23 year-end gross cash to just over $5.8bn. In FY24 we forecast $3.5bn of cash burn offset by $3bn of assumed stock issuance. In our opinion, Rivian can beat expectations by limiting the FY23 cash burn to less than $5bn which we believe it has an opportunity to do given improved production efficiencies, improved pricing (as they cycle off depressed prices from the early order book) and other capital efficiencies. Dialing back the expansionary dial into Europe/GA plant/in- sourcing battery timing can help better balance expenditures with the challenging funding environment. We believe hunkering down until FY24 can offer Rivian an opportunity to potentially secure additional funding (either from outside investors, government initiatives/IRA or both) under better economic and financial conditions.
Exhibit 1: Rivian Est. Free Cash Flow -
(1,000.0) (2,000.0) (3,000.0) (4,000.0) (5,000.0) (6,000.0) (7,000.0) (8,000.0)
(580.6)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
(4,733.0)
(3,500.5)
(7,371.2)
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
(3,048.5)
A word on gross margin/LCNRV accounting. Feedback from our discussions with investors on Rivian suggests a consensus that the company has room to significantly improve the disclosure and transparency around the impact of the accounting treatment for lower of cost or net realizable value (aka - LCNRV) which, while an application of US GAAP practices, can significantly distort an investor's ability to forecast underlying gross profit of the business. While we do not expect Rivian to disclose an 'ex-LCNRV' metric on an ongoing basis, some investors have suggested a slide or illustration in the shareholder letter could help enhance financial transparency rather than taking up valuable Q&A time in the analyst conference call to discuss complex accounting issues.
We reiterate our OW rating on Rivian and our $55 target. We believe Rivian should be able to get FY23 behind them before they would need more capital. Our model currently assumes a $3bn equity raise in FY24 and $2bn in FY25. We believe further control of spending/cash burn + improved production ramp leads nicely to increased disclosure and around potential IRA benefits which can
2

support Rivian’s aggressive battery cell