Lunes 10/01/11, Alcoa, CPI, beige book, ventas retail

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Las acciones caen, el riesgo de los bonos suben a record mientras los gobiernos Europeos se preparan para la venta de bonos.

El costo de proteger la deuda soberana Europea subio a niveles record mientras los gobiernos se preparan a vender $43 billones esta semana.

Stocks Fall, Bond Risk Rises to Record as European Governments Ready Sales
By Stephen Kirkland - Jan 10, 2011 9:07 AM ET
The euro weakened against 13 of its 16 most-active peers and fell to 107.23 yen as of 11:09 a.m. in Tokyo from 107.32 on Jan. 7. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Stocks fell for a fourth day and U.S. index futures slipped, while the cost of insuring sovereign debt against default rose to a record as European governments prepared to borrow at least $43 billion this week.

The MSCI World Index lost 0.4 percent at 9 a.m. in New York, and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in March slid 0.4 percent. Credit-default swaps on Portugal jumped nine basis points to a peak of 547, according to CMA. That helped push the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe index higher for a fourth day. The Dollar Index added 0.1 percent, its sixth day of gains, the longest run since June. Oil rose as much as 2.2 percent after a leak at an Alaskan pipeline.

Portugal, Spain and Italy are scheduled to hold their first bond auctions this year after borrowing costs increased at bill sales last week. Germany may be softening its opposition to expanding the 750 billion-euro ($966 billion) rescue facility for the region’s most-indebted countries, after Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, Steffen Seibert, declined to repeat the nation’s objections to restocking the fund.

“Europe’s debt woes are dominating market action,” Kathleen Brooks, research director at Gain Capital Group LLC in London, wrote in a report today. “If any of Europe’s large economies need help from the fund, that would require a completely new support system and a large injection. This could spread from a debt crisis to a currency crisis.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.7 percent, as more than four companies declined for each that gained. Portugal’s PSI-20 Index tumbled 1.5 percent, while Spain’s IBEX 35 slid 1 percent. Bank stocks led the selloff, with KBC Groep NV, Belgium’s biggest lender, plunging 7.1 percent and Banco Comercial Portugues SA losing 3.3 percent.

Bond Risk

Markit Group Ltd.’s index of credit-default swaps protecting the debt of 15 western European governments rose 0.5 basis point to a record 220, while contracts on Ireland jumped 18.5 to 673, the highest ever, according to CMA.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Belgian 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds was near the most since at least 1993 as a political standoff deepened. The cost of insuring the country’s sovereign debt surged five basis points to a record 253, according to CMA. That’s more than for Italy, whose credit-default swaps fell 1 basis point to 252.

Portuguese 10-year bonds rose, reversing declines, with the yield falling 21 basis points to 7.17 percent. The European Central Bank bought Portuguese government bonds, according to three traders with knowledge of the transactions, who asked not to be identified because the deals are confidential. An ECB spokesman in Frankfurt declined to comment.

Danisco, DuPont

Danisco A/S rallied 25 percent after DuPont Co. agreed to buy the world’s largest maker of food ingredients for $5.8 billion. Smith & Nephew Plc surged 12 percent after Sky News reported the U.K. maker of hip and knee replacements rejected a 7 billion-pound ($10.9 billion) takeover approach from Johnson & Johnson. DuPont lost 1.5 percent.

The decline in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 may slip for a third day. The index fell 0.2 percent on Jan. 7 after a government report showed U.S. payrolls increased by 103,000, about two-thirds of the median estimate. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said yesterday that central bank asset purchases prevented the country from slipping into deflation and will add 3 million jobs to private payrolls. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell two basis points at 3.30 percent.

Duke, Alcoa

Duke Energy Corp. said it agreed to buy Progress Energy Inc. for about $13.7 billion, creating the largest U.S. utility. Duke slipped 0.8 percent in pre-market trading and Progress Energy lost 1.4 percent, and Duke fell 1.2 percent.

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, unofficially kicks off the fourth-quarter earnings season when it reports results after the close of trading in New York today. The stock rose 1.1 percent.

Emerging-market stocks fell for a fourth day, led by Indonesia and India, amid concern accelerating inflation will drive interest rates higher. The Jakarta Composite Index sank 4.2 percent, the most in two years, while India’s Sensex slid 2.4 percent. Benchmark gauges in China, Thailand, Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic lost at least 1 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 1 percent. The Thai bhat led currencies lower, weakening 1.1 percent per dollar.

Oil climbed as high as $89.98 a barrel. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System was closed Jan. 8, forcing companies including BP Plc to suspend 95 percent of production from the North Slope area. BP shares fell 2 percent.

Copper fell for a fifth day, losing 0.5 percent in London as longest losing streak since June, as sliding equity lower imports of metal into China cool the demand outlook.

[Arnold]

RESUMEN ECONÓMICO

La SBS comenzaría a aplicar en breve un límite a las compras y ventas de moneda extranjera a futuro, señalaron fuentes del Ejecutivo. Explicaron que el objetivo de la medida sería moderar el ingreso de flujos de capitales de corto plazo y así minimizar el riesgo de la especulación de los precios futuros de la divisa estadounidense. (Gestión)

El Ministerio de Agricultura dispuso la suspensión de los envíos de azúcar a Estados Unidos con el propósito de evitar un desabastecimiento local. Así, se dará permisos de exportación sólo cuando los volúmenes de fabricación local y de importación superen la demanda interna de azúcar. La medida tendrá vigencia hasta el 30 de junio. (Todos los diarios)

Estados Unidos y China concentraron el 31% de las exportaciones peruanas entre enero y noviembre del 2010, informó la Sunat. Estados Unidos concentra el 16% de las exportaciones mientras que China el 15%. Otros destinos importantes son Suiza (11%), Canadá (10%) y Japón (5%). Las exportaciones sumaron US$31,346 millones, 32% más en comparación con igual periodo del 2009.

El turismo receptivo en el Perú crecería entre 20% y 25% este año, indicó la Cámara de Comercio de Lima. Ello se debería principalmente a las celebraciones por el centenario del descubrimiento de Machu Picchu, así como por los factores climáticos favorables en esa parte del país.

Construcción del nuevo aeropuerto de Pisco empezará a finales de enero, afirmó el Ministerio de Transportes y Comunicaciones. La inversión estimada para las obras de modernización del aeropuerto de Pisco es de US$45 millones. (Todos los diarios)

RESUMEN POLÍTICO

El presidente del Congreso de la República, César Zumaeta, advirtió ayer a los parlamentarios que intentarán la reelección legislativa que está totalmente prohibido el uso de recursos públicos para campañas electorales, y remarcó que el JNE sancionará esos actos con el máximo peso de la ley.

El ex empresario de televisión y prófugo de la justicia José Enrique Crousillat fue detenido esta madrugada por la Policía Nacional en Miraflores, en cumplimiento de un mandato del Juzgado Anticorrupción.

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-27.55

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El ECB actua agresivamente con compra de bonos emitida por gobiernos de alta deuda ante las crecientes preocupaciones de que la crisis de la deuda se contagia a Portugal.

ECB Acts as Euro Worries Spread

By MARK BROWN And KATIE MARTIN
LONDON—The European Central Bank stepped in with "aggressive" purchases of bonds issued by high-debt governments amid growing worries that the debt crisis is spreading to Portugal.

The move pushed down yields on 10-year Portuguese debt to comfortably under 7%.

"They have been rather aggressive" relative to secondary market prices, one trader said, observing the ECB bought government debt issued by Portugal, Greece and Ireland.

The European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt.
Fears Mount Over European Debt
.The ECB purchases come ahead of a crucial debt auction by Portugal Wednesday, when the country will aim to sell €750 million to €1.25 billion ($986.3 million to $1.61 billion) of 2014 and 2020 bonds. Italy and Greece are also in the market this week with auctions of Treasury bills, and Spain will auction bonds due 2016 on Thursday.

The Portuguese bond auction is at the focus of market attention this week after officials from other euro-zone governments expressed concern that Lisbon might soon lose access to capital markets and be forced to follow Greece and Ireland in asking for an international bailout. A poor auction result could accelerate a bailout timetable.

A senior source at a euro-zone government said there have been "preliminary discussions" of a possible rescue plan for Portugal, but so far nothing formal. Early estimates are for a a package of around €70 to €80 billion, this official said.

"There is a strong conviction that Lisbon will eventually seek aid because its cost of borrowing will continue to climb," said the official, who confirmed other reports that Germany and France were leading calls for an early resolution.

The Portuguese government continues to resist the suggestion that it will need outside help, arguing that its deficit-reduction plans are on track. But concerns that financial markets may be taking matters out of Lisbon's hands have roused suspicions that the Portuguese government may be running out of room.

Portuguese yields initially rose Monday but fell as the ECB stepped in. Its 10-year yield stood at 6.933% in afternoon trade, down from more than 7.1% late Friday, and the premium over Germany, the defacto euro-zone benchmark, fell 0.164 percentage point to 4.056 percentage point.

The yield premium for Irish and Greek bonds also shrunk sharply, but those for Italian and Spanish bonds widened a touch.

Officials in Germany and France denied that a Portuguese bailout deal was in the works, but traders and investors are unconvinced, pushing the euro lower on this new sign that the crisis that began with Greece a year ago is on the verge of claiming new victims.

The euro tumbled to a fresh four-month low of $1.2860 in very early Asian trading. It recently traded at $1.2916, up marginally from $1.2910 late Friday in New York.

"We see a realistic possibility that Portugal will not manage to generate the funds required for 2011 without foreign aid," Commerzbank analysts said in a note. " Speculation about aid payments to Portugal is therefore likely to continue."

Contributing to the newest escalation in euro-zone default fears is Belgium's prolonged political deadlock, with the caretaker government not seen able to construct a stabile 2011 budget.

Some market watchers warn that even a potential bailout for Portugal may not be enough to support the euro or the bond markets. Spain could be the next down the line if the panic spreads.

"The level of contagion in the euro zone periphery is higher than in the run-up to the Irish bailout in late November," noted Valentin Marinov, a currencies analyst at Citigroup in London.

"A Portuguese bailout may not dampen contagion on a sustainable basis since the diminishing amount of rescue funds available under the European Financial Stability Facility will make a potential bailout of Spain more difficult to implement under the current setup," he said.

—Neelabh Chaturvedi, Costas Paris and Emese Bartha contributed to this article.

[admin]

-49.57

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-56.65

[admin]

Euro up 1.2911

El indice del del dolar up a 81.11 o +0.10%

VIX up 18.51

VZ vendera el iPhone, anuncio oficial maniana.

-62.14

[admin]

-58.20

[admin]

Yields down 3.29%

Au up 1,370

-54.46

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-63.57

[admin]

Oil up 89.03

-60.06

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AAPL +0.90%

-57.37

[admin]

Realmente se va a ver la seriedad de problema cuando los paises vendan sus bonos, si hay rechazo o no hay demanda, alli si que hay que preocuparse.

[admin]

Bueno, preocuparse mas, el euro pasa al rojo.

[admin]

FAS, AIG, etc mejorando algo.