Viernes 15/01/11 CPI inflacion, ventas retail, JPM reporta

[carl_]

Brasil interviene mercado de cambio a futuro para contener al real

El Banco Central (BC) de Brasil volverá después de casi dos años a intervenir desde este viernes el mercado de cambio a futuro con casi 1.000 millones de dólares, para contener la especulación y el avance firme del real, anunció la entidad.

La autoridad monetaria decidió entrar en la negociación de papeles conocidos como "swap cambiario reverso", que supone comprar dólares en el mercado de futuro. La medida abarca 20.000 contratos por valor total de 1.000 millones de dólares que tendrán tres fechas de vencimiento, informó el BC este jueves.

Con ese 'swap', el Central paga al mercado un rendimiento en intereses y luego percibe la diferencia cambiaria del período de duración de esos contratos especiales de futuro.

EL BC, que había terminado con ese mecanismo en mayo de 2009, resolvió restaurar la medida debido a la valorización excesiva del real y sus efectos en las exportaciones.

Hasta ahora el BC estaba comprando dólares únicamente en el mercado al contado, cuyo movimiento es equivalente a 20 por ciento de lo negociado a futuro.

El nuevo gobierno de Dilma Rousseff, que asumió el primero de enero, reaccionó enseguida para frenar la valorización del real, luego que éste alcanzara días atrás su más alto nivel desde setiembre de 2008: 1,65 por dólar, dejando atrás el piso 'sicológico' de 1,70.

El pasado lunes fue anunciado otro mecanismo para actuar en el mercado con una resolución que autoriza al Fondo Soberano -fondo de ahorro estatal creado en 2008 para lograr mayor rentabilidad que la originada por reservas internacionales- a realizar operaciones sin límites en el mercado de futuro.

También este enero aprobó limitar el exceso de operaciones en el mercado cambiario por parte de bancos que apostaban a una apreciación del real, obligándolos a mantener un encaje de 60% sobre su posición vendida en dólar, superior a 3.000 millones de dólares.

En 2010 el real cerró con una ganancia acumulada de 4,6% sobre el dólar, en el 2009 se valorizó 32,7%.

AFP

[admin]

Euro up 1.3364

[admin]

+28.61

[admin]

FAS +2.98%

Oil down 91.02

+24.11

[admin]

JPM +2.09%

C +1.59% a $5.13

[goodprofit]

Tranquilos con BVN dejen de mirarla, este es un proceso, el oro tiene que terminar de bajar y todavia recien esta por la mitad, tranquilos. Miren la petroleo que esta bonito e interesante.

Abran su cuenta en IB para que puedan comprar las acciones por aca, ya tienen bastante informacion en el foro, pueden hacerlo solos y van a pagar solo $1 o $2 por transaccion, asi compren 100 acciones o 1000 acciones.

disculpen pero ¿a què refieren con la cuenta "IB" y como hago para abrir una? estoy en Lima. muchas gracias por la respuesta

[admin]

Euro up 1.3361

+14.08

[admin]

Interactive Brokers

[admin]

JPM +2.70%

FAS +3.25%

XLF+1.28%

Yields mejorando 3.27%

+19.75

[admin]

AIG -5.60%

+16.16

[ECROMGAR]

Pongale un paracaidas al oro! qué salvaje, arrastrando a la plata. Cuál es la próxima parada de la plata? Parece más interesante que esperar al oro

[Xtian]

Tranquilos con BVN dejen de mirarla, este es un proceso, el oro tiene que terminar de bajar y todavia recien esta por la mitad, tranquilos. Miren la petroleo que esta bonito e interesante.

Abran su cuenta en IB para que puedan comprar las acciones por aca, ya tienen bastante informacion en el foro, pueden hacerlo solos y van a pagar solo $1 o $2 por transaccion, asi compren 100 acciones o 1000 acciones.

disculpen pero ¿a què refieren con la cuenta "IB" y como hago para abrir una? estoy en Lima. muchas gracias por la respuesta

Si, tambien estoy interesado en ello, como se pueden efectuar esas transacciones desde Lima?

Saludos.

[admin]

Metales preciosos en general andan muy mal estos dias, no entrar hasta que todo pase.

[admin]

Anda a su website Interactive Brokers, llena la aplicacion tienes la opcion para los que estan fuera de US, es facil y rapido, pongan que tienen experiencia y buenos ingresos. Muchos de los foristas ya han abierto su cuenta con esa compania.

[ECROMGAR]

Jan. 14, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EST
Five reasons silver glitters more than gold
Commentary: How to capitalize on the metal’s run
View all Outside the Box ›
‹ Previous Column
Contrarian forecast for 2011
First Take ›
Deflationary pressures easing, for now
STORYQUOTESCOMMENTS SCREENER (79)
Share | Recommend (9) PrintEmail Alert By Jeff Reeves
ROCKVILLE, Md. (MarketWatch) — There are several reasons to love gold right now. From the twin specters of a weak dollar and commodity inflation, to the recent all-time highs north of $1,430 an ounce, to returns that doubled the broader market in 2010.

Yet investors who focus on gold and ignore silver could be missing an even better bet. Demand and performance numbers show that silver is beating gold handily right now and has been for a while. What’s more, a look at the uses and possible supply bottlenecks of silver shows that this metal could have an upside gold may not enjoy in the new year.

While both gold and silver have rolled back recently — a 5% decline for silver and a 3% decline for gold since Dec. 31 — there’s no doubt many investors are considering the drawback little more than a pause before the commodities skyrocket once more.

Don’t be fooled by gold’s glitter —- here are five reasons silver may be a better play for your portfolio — and several investments to capitalize on the metal’s run.

Silver’s performance

Silver has lapped gold’s gains better than three times over the past year, with appreciation of about 79% compared with 24% for gold. Silver also has better long-term performance, with three times gold’s run in the past 20 years. Specifically, silver has posted gains of about 637% since early 2009 compared with 255% for gold in the same period.


Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But a look at just about any time frame over the past few decades shows that silver has outperformed gold. Another annual gain of nearly 79% may be a bit unrealistic, but if you think precious metals are on the rise, you should bank on silver instead of gold.

Silver production bottleneck

According to historic estimates, about a century ago there were about 12 billion ounces of unmined silver. In 1990, commodities research firm CPM Group pegged that figure at 2.2 billion ounces. But today, that figure has fallen to less than 1 billion ounces in above ground refined silver — a number that’s shrinking every day. Recycling is common for silver, but the dwindling supply of metal in the ground is creating a bottleneck. Read about six mining stocks to sell immediately on InvestorPlace.

Silver demand increase

What’s more, a shift in who owns silver has contributed to a bottleneck. Stockpiles of silver were for decades largely part of Commodity Exchange warehouse inventories. COMEX inventories were mostly commercial holdings, with a small portion being held for investment purposes — peaking at around 280 million ounces in the early 1990s, according to a report by Ted Butler.

Then a funny thing happened — after the introduction of silver Exchange-Traded Funds, there was a profound shift in the location and structure of world visible silver inventories. Rather than being a commercial stockpile, investment holdings have overshadowed conventional-use silver by 4 to 1.

Given the long-term nature of ETF investment holdings and the current silver boom, it’s highly unlikely this new floor for silver prices will go anywhere. That skews the chart upward for silver. Read about eight dividend stocks likely to boost yields on InvestorPlace.

Silver is useful

Not to get all scientific on you, but silver is an amazing element. The substance has the highest electrical conductivity of all metals, even copper. That means it’s useful in electronics, from high-end speaker wire to computer keyboards to circuit boards. Silver oxide and silver-zinc batteries are also used in many applications due to their long life and impressive energy-to-weight ratio. In short, you can use silver — and while gold is also highly conductive and used in a limited manner in industrial and electronic applications, it is cost-prohibitive and in many ways inferior to the conductivity silver provides.
About 700 million ounces of silver are mined each year, and Silver Insights figures about 75% of that metal is going to industrial and commercial use — including 15% to photography alone. Another 20% goes to jewelry and other goods like silverware. That leaves a mere 5% for coinage, investing and “speculation.” This built-in demand by consumers and businesses provides silver a much stronger floor than gold in the opinion of many commodity investors. Read about the 10 best stocks for 2011 on InvestorPlace.

Silver’s behavior in the last boom

Silver and Gold gains
1-YEAR GAIN 3-YEAR GAIN 10-YEAR GAIN 20-YEAR GAIN
Silver 79% 105% 568% 637%
Gold 24% 64% 412% 255%
Source: Kitco
The last time silver went parabolic was in the inflationary environment of 1979-1980. In the first nine months of 1979, inflation surged to an annualized rate of more than 10%, thanks to skyrocketing prices of commodities such as oil. Silver and gold went on a tear as a result.

If you believe that inflation is in the works again due to a weak dollar, runaway federal deficits and other macroeconomic factors — a common mindset right now — then check out the peak prices and valuation of silver versus gold during the last boom:

If you believe the headline dollar amount of the peak, you’ll see silver has some significant room to run above the low $30s. Secondly, if you buy into the valuations versus gold then silver has ground to make up even if gold flatlines. Specifically, to achieve a 37-to-1 ratio with gold at current prices, silver would be priced at $37.50 or so — a 22% upside.

Of course, one person’s boom is another’s bubble so even if those prices are achieved you have to know when to say when and bail out at the top. Also, there’s the fact that the Hunt brothers tried unsuccessfully to corner the silver market 30 years ago and helped make silver’s surge even more obscene.

Silver and gold in the boom years
JAN. 11, 2011 1980 HIGH 1980 AVERAGE 1979 AVERAGE
Silver $29.54 $49.45 $16.39 $21.79
Gold $1,374.00 $850.00 $612.56 $306.68
Ratio 46.5 17.2 37.4 14.1
Source: Kitco
Still, the numbers show silver isn’t yet near its historic ceiling when it comes to raw prices or valuation versus gold. And by the way, these are raw numbers that aren’t adjusted for inflation. Based on that, silver’s peak was actually around $130 an ounce in today’s dollars.

How to invest in silver

You can buy physical silver coins, of course, but as mentioned earlier, the affordability of silver means you need a sizeable space to store a sizeable investment.

Alternatives include physical silver ETFs that track the metal very closely, including the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV 27.55, -0.45, -1.61%) and the ETFS Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR 28.07, -0.47, -1.65%) .

For the aggressive silver buyer, there is a 2x leveraged ETF, the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ 131.34, -4.68, -3.44%) that looks to generate twice the returns (or losses) of silver prices.

Then there are the silver miners, including pure plays such as Silvercorp (SVM 10.17, -0.36, -3.42%) and Pan American Silver (PAAS 35.40, -0.93, -2.56%) and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL 23.14, -0.76, -3.18%) . There are also diversified miners involved in silver and other metals including gold and copper, such as Hecla Mining Co. (HL 9.49, -0.26, -2.67%) and Coeur D’Alene (CDE 24.43, -0.48, -1.93%) .

Jeff Reeves is editor of InvestorPlace.com . Follow him on Twitter . As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the stocks or funds named here