Jueves 27/01/11 Ordenes de bienes duraderos

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Jueves

Eventos economicos

Ordenes de bienes duraderos
Solicitudes de seguro de desempleo
Indice de casas pendientes
Balance del Fed
Money supply

Weekly Bill Settlement


Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET


Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

[admin]

NFLX y QCOM reportaron utilidades espectaculares lo cual debe animar al Nasdaq a subir el Jueves.

[admin]

Los futures del Dow Jones 2 puntos al alza.

Korea +0.21%, el Hang Seng +0.26%, el Nikei +0.26%, Australia +0.09%, el Shanghai C. +0.25%

Euro down 1.3697 pero ya habia sobrepasado 1.37. Yen up 82.16

[admin]

Copper January 26,21:18
Bid/Ask 4.2834 - 4.2854
Change +0.0272 +0.64%
Low/High 4.2562 - 4.2880
Charts

Nickel January 26,21:39
Bid/Ask 12.0087 - 12.0396
Change -0.0218 -0.18%
Low/High 11.9729 - 12.0985
Charts

Aluminum January 26,21:38
Bid/Ask 1.0679 - 1.0687
Change +0.0032 +0.30%
Low/High 1.0633 - 1.0692
Charts

Zinc January 26,21:39
Bid/Ask 1.0237 - 1.0258
Change +0.0020 +0.20%
Low/High 1.0201 - 1.0301
Charts

Lead January 26,21:35
Bid/Ask 1.1374 - 1.1410
Change +0.0011 +0.10%
Low/High 1.1347 - 1.1433

[admin]

Au down

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 19 hrs. 35 mins.
Jan 26, 2011 21:40 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1343.40 - 1344.40
Low/High 1324.20 - 1348.10
Change -2.70 -0.20%
30daychg -40.70 -2.94%
1yearchg +246.60 +22.48%
Charts...

[admin]

Oil up

9:31 p.m. EST 01/26/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 87.47 0.14 87.33
Gold, Feb. 1343.3 10.3 1333.0
DJ Industrials 11938 2 11936
S&P 500 1292.90 -0.70 1293.60

9:42 p.m. EST 01/26/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 82.15 82.30
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3698 1.3691

[admin]

CAT reporta utilidades Jueves. Las ventas de sus camiones y otro equipo utilizado en mineria son su fuerte. Cuando los metales sube, la demanda por todo lo relacionado con mineria sube. Ese sector significa el 10% de las ventas de Caterpillar aunque las ventas indirectas podrian aumentar a un 15% o 20%. La compania tiene planeado comprar Bucyrus International por $7.6 billones, otro faricante de equipo para mineria.

Caterpillar Looks to Hang Tough
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
At first glance, rising prices for steel and other raw materials make Caterpillar Inc. look vulnerable. After all, the maker of bright yellow road graders, tractors and diggers is one of the world's biggest users of steel.

But Caterpillar, which reports fourth-quarter results Thursday, has some natural protection: its sales of trucks and other equipment used in mining. When metals prices go up, so does demand for mining gear.

.Mining sales account for about 10% of Caterpillar's revenue, although some analysts reckon indirect sales to the industry may push that to 15% to 20%. The company's planned $7.6 billion acquisition of Bucyrus International Inc., another maker of mining equipment, could increase that share to between 20% and 25%, estimates Eli Lustgarten, an analyst at Longbow Research.

So, in the long run, Caterpillar shareholders still should benefit even if demand from China, India and Latin America continues to push up prices for steel and other raw materials.

Not that there won't be bumps. Mining investments lag behind commodity-price moves, and companies like Caterpillar can't always raise prices fast enough to reflect higher input costs. That could lead to choppier quarterly earnings. This week 3M Co. posted disappointing profit margins due to just such a squeeze.

Investors also continue to worry about the sluggish U.S. economy, although here, too, Caterpillar may have a natural hedge. It is becoming less reliant on the home market: In the third quarter, Asia accounted for 23% of sales and Latin America 16%. North America was 38%, down from about 55% a decade ago.

When metals prices go up, so does demand for mining gear. Here, an employee works on the assembly of a Caterpillar 'ackhoe digger in Desford, U.K. on Tuesday.
.For now, Caterpillar is expected to hang tough. Analysts expect fourth-quarter earnings to more than triple from a year earlier to about $1.27 a share, according to Thomson Reuters. Key, though, will be its 2011 projections and prospects to lift margins. During the last upswing in demand for machinery, from 2006 to 2008, Caterpillar's margins suffered because parts suppliers couldn't keep up. Caterpillar had to pay premiums to get enough materials into its factories.

This time around Caterpillar hopes to avoid a replay thanks to recent efforts to make factories more efficient and improve the reliability of its supply chain. Hard experience probably proved a good teacher.

[admin]

Jueves:

Toneladas de utilidades

Se espera que el GDP haya sido 3.5%

Thursday Spotlight: Tons of Earnings, Q4 GDP Data.
By Matt Phillips

A slew of earnings will be rolling through Friday, including reports from:

Amazon.com, Inc.
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Caterpillar Inc.
D.R. Horton
Eli Lilly
Microsoft
Altria Group
AT&T
Nucor
Colgate-Palmolive
In economics, we’ll have:

8:30 a.m. — A glimpse of fourth-quarter GDP comes in. The expectations are that GDP growth during the quarter will have been about 3.5%.
9:55 a.m. — Another reading from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan on consumer confidence for January is due. A previous reading pegged January’s reading at 72.7 down from 74.5 in December.

[admin]

Netflix aplasta a las expectativas.

Las acciones subieron 9% despues del cierre. Reporto utilidades de $47.1 millones o 87 cents per share, muy por encima de los $30.9 milllones o 56 cents a share el anio pasado. Las ventas subieron nada menos que 34% a $595.9 millones.

Los analistas esperaban solamente 71 cents per share.

Netflix: Crushes EPS Expectations.

Netflix crushed earnings expectations and the shares are jumping around 9% after hours. The company reported company reported a fourth-quarter profit of $47.1 million, or 87 cents a share, up from $30.9 million, or 56 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 34% to $595.9 million.

The 87-cent EPS figure topped analyst expectations of 71 cents for the quarter. Nobody seems to mind that the revenue figure was a little bit lighter than expected, at $596 million versus the $597.5 analysts were expecting. Mark Mahaney, an analyst covering the stock with Citigroup writes.

This was a fundamentally very solid [quarter] by Netflix. There are negatives – soft Gross Margin (Streaming Content costs likely the biggest factor), Free Subs now at almost 9% of Total Subs, and NFLX repo’ed no shares (1st time in 9 quarters). But we believe there is an overriding positive — NFLX is showing Dramatic Marketing Leverage with which to help fund that Streaming content acquisition, which in turn should lead to More Subs, which should lead to More Revenue, which should lead to More Cash with which to fund that content acquisition, in our view.

Nobody really expects Netflix to repeat its 216% rise last year. But for the record until the jump after the close of trading today, Netflix has had a slightly slow start to the year, up about 1.8%, versus the 3.1% rise in the S&P 500.

[admin]

China enfrentara una crisis en 5 anios, dicen los inversionistas

El 45% de los inversionistas dice que esperan una crisis financiera en 5 anios.

Un 40% adicional ancipa que una crisis ocurrira despues del 2016. Solamente el 7% tiene la confianza de que China pueda escapar el desastre.

No cabe duda que China esta en medio de una burbuja especulativa que no podra ser sostenida.

53% dice que China es una burbuja. Sus vecinos en el Asia son los mas preocupados el 60% dice que China esta en una burbuja.

Desde el 14 de Noviembre el Shanghai C. ha caido 14%. El mercado tiene razon para estar nervioso.

China Will Face Crisis Within 5 Years, 45% of Investors Say
By David J. Lynch - Jan 26, 2011 6:04 PM ET

Poll Results Attachment: Poll results and methodology Global investors are bracing for the end of China’s relentless economic growth, with 45 percent saying they expect a financial crisis there within five years.

An additional 40 percent anticipate a Chinese crisis after 2016, according to a quarterly poll of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders or analysts. Only 7 percent are confident China will indefinitely escape turmoil.

“There is no doubt that China is in the midst of a speculative credit-driven bubble that cannot be sustained,” says Stanislav Panis, a currency strategist at TRIM Broker in Bratislava, Slovakia, and a participant in the Bloomberg Global Poll, which was conducted Jan. 21-24. Panis likens the expected fallout to the aftermath of the U.S. subprime-mortgage meltdown.

On Jan. 20, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy grew 10.3 percent in 2010, the fastest pace in three years and up from 9.2 percent a year earlier. Gross domestic product rose to 39.8 trillion yuan ($6 trillion).

Any Chinese financial emergency would reverberate around the world. The total value of the country’s exports and imports last year was $3 trillion, with about 13 percent of that trade between China and the U.S. As of November, China also held $896 billion in U.S. Treasuries. The trade and investment links between the two nations were underlined with Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit last week to the White House for meetings with President Barack Obama.

Worried Neighbors

Fifty-three percent of poll respondents say they believe China is a bubble, while 42 percent disagree. China’s neighbors are the most concerned: 60 percent of Asia-based respondents identified a bubble in the world’s second-largest economy.

Worries center on the danger that investment, which surged almost 24 percent in 2010, may be producing empty apartment blocks and unneeded factories.

Jonathan Sadowsky, chief investment officer at Vaca Creek Asset Management in San Francisco, says he is “exceptionally worried” that the Chinese would eventually face “major dislocations within their banking system.”

Chinese authorities also raised interest rates twice in the fourth quarter in a bid to choke off inflation, a sensitive political issue since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, which followed uncontrolled price increases. Food prices last year rose 7.2 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

‘Rapid Wage Inflation’

Haroon Shaikh, an investment manager with GAM London Ltd., cited “rapid wage inflation” and soaring property prices as the financial markets’ chief concern.

Li Daokui, an adviser to China’s central bank, said rising real estate prices are the “biggest danger” to the Chinese economy, in an interview with Bloomberg News in Davos, Switzerland. The People’s Bank of China should “gradually increase rates in the first and second quarter,” Li said.

Since peaking on Nov. 8 at 3159.51, the Shanghai Composite Index has slid about 14 percent. “The market is right to be nervous,” Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, wrote in his Jan. 26 financial newsletter.

Some investors remain unbowed. “China can continue to grow over 10 percent for the better part of the next five years,” said Ardavan Mobasheri, head of AIG Global Economics in New York.

Growth Seen Slowing

Still, the poll found other signs of mounting investor caution toward China, where three decades of market-oriented reform has obliterated a legacy of Maoist impoverishment.

Asked to identify the worst market for investment over the next year, 20 percent of poll respondents say China versus just 11 percent in the last poll in November. Almost half of those polled -- 48 percent -- say a significant slowing of growth was very or fairly likely within the next two years.

Michael Martin, senior vice president of MDAvantage Insurance Company of New Jersey, says the Chinese government “has executed brilliantly” in managing the economy. The government’s capacity will be tested as the economy grows and becomes more complex, he says.

Chinese officials have said they intend to wean the economy off its reliance upon exports, the source of trade tensions with the U.S., in favor of greater domestic consumption.

Peter Hurst, a broker with Sterling International Brokers in London, says he’s concerned China will struggle to complete the transition.

“Yes, there are 1.3 billion people in China,” he says. “But are they rich enough to become consumers?”

Global Impact

If China stumbles, the global economy will feel the impact, says Suresh Raghavan, chief investment officer for Raghavan Financial Inc. in Houston. “If the PBOC is successful at lowering growth rates to 7 percent, it will still feel like a recession for a lot of people around the world,” he says.

Most poll respondents remained confident of the Chinese government’s ability to fend off demands for greater political liberalization. Just 1 percent expect a political crisis within the next year and 27 percent expect one within the next two to five years.

And by a 60 percent to 30 percent margin, those surveyed say President Hu’s policies were favorable to investors. Hu tied with German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the poll’s top spot.

“The Chinese politicians are able to act on all necessary issues. That gives them a huge advantage compared to the Western economies,” says Henry Littig, who heads his own global investment firm in Cologne, Germany.

The poll was conducted by Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co. for Bloomberg and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Lynch in Washington at dlynch27@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz

[admin]

After You, Mr. Ryan
El Presidente Obama dice que el deficit es problema de los republicanos (GOP) ahora

A pesar de el renacimiento lleno de brillo y su estilo a lo Reagan de admiracion por las maravillas de la empresa privada, el mensaje politico de Obama el Martes en el State of the Union fue uno solo: Republicanos: el deficit es tu problema ahora.

El deficit es horrible y debe ser recortado, los servicios de beneficencia soon insostenibles y deben ser recortados, el codigo de impuestos perjudica el crecimiento de la economia y debe ser reformado, el gobierno debe ser mas pequenio y mas eficiente, pero no miren a Obama buscando ideas de como solucionar ninguno de estos problemas. Vayan recorten los gastos de Mdicare si quieren, Uds. republicanos. El presidente les hara caso cuando el tiempo politico lo permita.

Los republicanos avanzaran su agenda de presupuesto y recorte de gastos, los democratas los atacara, los votantes se molestaran, y Mr. Obama conseguira su reeleccion. Ya sucedio en 1996.

Como liderazgo, sin embarto esta es una abdicacion que contradice la retorica de Obama acerca del nuevo bipartidismo y la necesidad de consolidarse, unirse y reorganizar al gobierno federa. Mas alla de esa bienvenida con vago apoyo por reducir los impuestos a las corporaciones, Obama no ofrece una sola idea nueva para recortar el gasto. La mayoria de sus ideas se han concentrado a sus prioridades conocidas que dicen que los republicanos deben gastar mas en Energia verde mediante subsidios y trenes mas rapidos!!

Al menos su discurso vino en buena hora, porque 12 horas despues el Congressional Budget Office dijo que el presupuesto es un desastre exponiendo que tan grande es el desastre fiscal. Hasta el CBO dijo que la crisis era profunda.

18 meses despues del final de la recesion, el deficit federal para el 2011 (hasta Setiembre) se espera que vuelva a aumentar esta vez a $1.48 trillones, 0 9.8% del GDP. Esa es la proporcion mas grande del GDP desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial solo por el 10% alcanzado por Obama en su primer anio en el gobierno, cuando por lo menos la recesion era una excusa. El deficit anual en los 80s nunca excedio el 6% del GDP.

Los gastos del gobierno Federal han trepado hasta el 24.7% del GDP y seguira aumentado de no hacerse nada.

The President says the deficit is the GOP's problem now

Amid his Reaganite sunshine and new admiration for the wonders of private enterprise, President Obama's political message in Tuesday's State of the Union address boils down to this: Republicans, it's your budget problem now.

The deficit is awful and must be cut, entitlements are unsustainable and must be addressed, the tax code hurts growth and must be reformed, and government should be smaller and more efficient, but don't look to Mr. Obama for ideas on how to fix any of this. Go ahead and cut spending and Medicare if you want, Republicans. The President will get back to you with his reply as time and politics allow.

After you, Congressman Ryan.

Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot and Wonder Land Columnist Daniel Henninger critique the President's State of the Union address.
.As political strategy, perhaps this will turn out to be shrewd. Republicans will advance their budget and spending cuts, Democrats will attack them, the voters will sour, and Mr. Obama will ride to re-election. It happened in 1996.

As leadership, however, this is an abdication that contradicts Mr. Obama's rhetorical flourishes about a new bipartisanship and the need "to merge, consolidate and reorganize the federal government." Beyond his welcome if vague support for reducing corporate tax rates in return for closing loopholes, Mr. Obama offered not a single new idea or spending cut. The bulk of his address was devoted to his familiar priorities that he said Republicans should spend more on. Green energy subsidies. High-speed rail!

At least the address had good timing, because less than 12 hours later the Congressional Budget Office released its annual budget review and exposed how deep the fiscal mess really is. Even CBO dared to call it "daunting," which for these budget gnomes is a primal scream.

Eighteen months after the recession formally ended, the federal deficit for fiscal 2011 (through September) is expected to increase once again, this time to $1.48 trillion, or 9.8% of GDP. That's a share of GDP topped since World War II only by the 10% reached in Mr. Obama's first year in office, when at least the recession was an excuse. The annual deficit in the 1980s never exceeded 6% of GDP.

As the nearby chart shows, the main culprit is spending. After falling slightly last year due in part to TARP repayments, federal outlays will climb again this year to 24.7% of GDP. Overall federal spending will have increased by $1 trillion in a mere four years. Without spending cuts, outlays will remain above 23% for the rest of the decade—starting to rise again once ObamaCare becomes fully phased in. (The outlay average from 1971 to 2010 was 20.8% of GDP.)

View Full Image
...Compared to this spending boom, Mr. Obama's proposal to freeze domestic discretionary spending for five years is a mere gratuity. It would start from a baseline that pockets the spending increases of the last two years, which as the chart shows has taken outlays to a level not seen since World War II. And it would ignore entitlements, including his health reform. The President's proposal is a feint not a freeze.

The post-recession decline in revenues will also contribute to the deficit, thanks mainly to the slow recovery that the federal spending spree was supposed to boost. The GOP-Obama tax deal will also keep revenues as a share of GDP below 15% in 2011. But as the chart shows, revenues are expected to increase sharply in 2013 and beyond, well above the 40-year average of 18% of GDP. CBO is assuming, as it always does, that higher tax rates have little impact on economic growth.

The message in all of these numbers is that the deficit is mainly a problem of spending and slower economic growth. If the recovery continues and becomes a durable expansion, revenues will revive. But without spending cuts and entitlement reform the deficits will continue at unsustainable levels.

And as they do so will the national debt. We've never been federal debt worriers, but CBO estimates that on current trajectory the debt held by the public as a share of GDP will be 73.9% in 2012, up from only 39.7% in 2008. Those are heights where even we begin to tug at the collar.

So this is the ugly budget reality that House Republicans are inheriting. In his Tuesday night response to Mr. Obama, House Budget Chairman repeated a line he has often used that the U.S. may be at a budget "tipping point." Either Congress begins to control its political appetites, or the debt financing and inevitable tax increases that are coming will erode our economic well-being. The CBO numbers bear him out.

Judging by Tuesday night, Republicans will have to start this reformation without much help from the President. Perhaps if they lead, the public will put enough pressure on Mr. Obama that he has no choice but to follow.

[Fenix]

La apuesta de la petrolera sugiere un giro en el sector energético; superará al carbón

Por Ángel González

El futuro del gas natural se ve cada vez más prometedor en la bola de cristal de Exxon Mobil Corp. La demanda global de gas natural, que suele usarse para la calefacción y la generación de electricidad, aumentará a un ritmo de 2% al año de aquí a 2030, predice el gigante petrolero estadounidense. Esto supera su estimación del año pasado, de 1,8%.

No se trata de un alza insignificante. Quiere decir que Exxon calcula que, en 2030, el mundo quemará 7.000 billones (millones de millones) de unidades térmicas británicas (BTU, por sus siglas en inglés) de gas más de los que pronosticó hace un año. Eso es un poco menos que la energía que consume México en un año.

Si bien el crudo seguirá siendo el combustible dominante incluso en 2030, el gas superará al carbón como la segunda fuente energética, al suministrar 26% de las necesidades mundiales, según el informe anual de Exxon publicado hoy.

Se espera que el uso de gas crezca tres veces más deprisa que el del petróleo y el carbón, a medida que las economías emergentes se ven bajo presión para proveerles electricidad a miles de millones de personas y el mundo desarrollado reemplaza las plantas eléctricas alimentadas con carbón por instalaciones a gas natural, indica el informe. La quema más limpia del gas natural no representa una amenaza medioambiental tan grande como el carbón y el petróleo. Asimismo, se prevé que otras fuentes que no emiten tantos gases de efecto invernadero, como la energía nuclear y la renovable, también aumentarán su participación en el mercado energético mundial.

El pronóstico de Exxon es seguido con atención, ya que apuntala la estrategia de la mayor petrolera del mundo que cotiza en bolsa. "Aporta la base para que las diferentes divisiones (de Exxon) puedan presentar sus planes de inversión", dice Bill Colton, el vicepresidente de planificación estratégica empresarial de Exxon.

No es sorprendente que Exxon se muestre tan optimista con respecto al gas. En 2010, se convirtió en el mayor productor de gas de Estados Unidos cuando compró XTO Energy Inc. por US$25.000 millones. También adquirió el pequeño productor de gas de esquisto Ellora Inc. por US$695 millones y activos del mismo gas de Petrohawk Energy Corp. por US$575 millones. Pero el entusiasmo de la petrolera coincide con algunas críticas de Wall Street sobre sus recientes apuestas al gas natural, que se ha cotizado barato desde que arrancó la crisis financiera, mientras que el petróleo se ha ido recuperando y ha resultado más rentable.

En enero, los precios del gas han caído a US$4,49 por millón de BTU, frente a más de US$13 a mediados de 2008. En cambio, los precios del crudo se transaban a apenas US$40 el barril a principios de 2009, por culpa de la recesión, pero se han recuperado de manera constante. El miércoles, los futuros de petróleo cerraron a US$87,33 el barril en la bolsa de Nueva York.

Aun así, Exxon cree que el mundo se está decantando por un futuro dominado por el gas natural y se está alistando para ello.

Varios pesos pesados de la industria también están emprendiendo el mismo camino. A principios de este mes, el presidente ejecutivo de Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Peter Voser, dijo en una publicación interna que, en 2012, el gigante anglo-holandés produciría por primera vez más gas natural que petróleo.

Exxon pronostica que el mundo consumirá en torno a 35% más de energía en 2030 que en 2005, impulsado por el crecimiento demográfico y el rápido progreso del mundo emergente.

—Russell Gold contribuyó a este artículo.

[admin]

La tristeza, S&P le rebaja el rating a la deuda de Japon, esperan que la deuda de Japon se mantenga excesivamente alta en los proximos anios.

[admin]

CAT y AT&T reportan mejor a lo esperado, las ganancias de Nokia caen 21%

Los futures del Dow Jones 25 puntos al alza.

Au up 1,333.37, oil down 87.13

Euro up 1.3729 y sigue subiendo

+24

Yields up 3.45%

Libor igual 0.30%

Europa al alza, el Asia termino mixta

Ag up 27.39, futures cu up 4.32

[admin]

Copper January 27,07:39
Bid/Ask 4.3113 - 4.3137
Change +0.0551 +1.29%
Low/High 4.2562 - 4.3152
Charts

Nickel January 27,07:39
Bid/Ask 12.1475 - 12.1611
Change +0.1170 +0.97%
Low/High 11.9207 - 12.1616
Charts

Aluminum January 27,07:38
Bid/Ask 1.0706 - 1.0709
Change +0.0058 +0.54%
Low/High 1.0633 - 1.0759
Charts

Zinc January 27,07:38
Bid/Ask 1.0151 - 1.0156
Change -0.0066 -0.64%
Low/High 1.0110 - 1.0305
Charts

Lead January 27,07:39
Bid/Ask 1.1523 - 1.1539
Change +0.0160 +1.41%
Low/High 1.1324 - 1.1603