Miercoles 02/02/11 ADP report privado del empleo

[admin]

Miercoles

Eventos economicos

Solicitudes de hipotecas
Reporte del empleo privadao de ADP
Reporte del empleo
Subasta de bonos

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET


ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET


Treasury Refunding Announcement
9:00 AM ET


3-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET


10-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET


30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

[admin]

Reportan Time Warner, Visa

Se espera que ADP diga que se crearon 147,000 empleos, pero mejor no creerles para que no pase lo mismo que el mes pasado.

Wednesday Spotlight: Time Warner, Visa Earnings; ADP Data
By Matt Phillips
Seven Chances. Buster Keaton, 1925. In earnings, we get reports from companies such as:

Allergan
The Hershey Company
Mattel
News Corp.
Time Warner Inc.
Visa Inc.
Vulcan Materials
Whirlpool Corp.
Yum! Brands, Inc.
And in economics, the big report will be:

8:15 a.m. — ADP private sector employment numbers — thought of as something as a precursor of the big Friday jobs report — arrive. The expectation is for 143,000. Last time, the report said companies in the private sector added 297,000 jobs in December. But that presaged a weak report a couple days later when 103,000 jobs were created in the month, reinforcing the market’s skepticism about the predictive power of this data release.

[admin]

El cobre surgio a precios records

Copper Surges to Fresh Highs
By MATT WHITTAKER
The continuing recovery in global manufacturing sent copper prices to fresh records Tuesday.

Copper for February delivery jumped 8.9 cents, or 2%, to settle at $4.54 a pound, beating out the last record high from Jan. 3 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The already optimistic outlook for world copper demand was further bolstered by several indicators. U.S. manufacturing activity in January rose to its highest level since May 2004, Chinese purchasing managers indexes registered growth and euro-zone manufacturing jumped to a nine-month high. On Monday, data were released showing manufacturing activity in the U.S. Midwest hit a 22-year high in January.

Copper traded on the London Metal Exchange also closed at a record $9,945 a metric ton, roughly equivalent with New York prices, and later traded even higher.

"Manufacturing is hot everywhere," said Frank Lesh, broker and analyst at FuturePath Trading.

This gives a bullish tint to the red metal because copper is widely used to make wires, pipes and sheets for appliances, automobiles, electronics and buildings.

The data out of China were particularly supportive because the Asian nation is the world's biggest copper consumer thanks to its rapid urbanization and industrialization.

In addition, the price difference between copper traded on LME and that on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continues to narrow. This is because Shanghai copper prices are rising at a faster rate than prices elsewhere, a sign that China's buyers are willing to pay even more.

Shanghai copper ended 2% higher at only a $143 discount to the London price. That gap has narrowed from a $500 discount, according to a broker. The outright copper price in Shanghai is higher than both London and New York futures, but analysts factor in a 17% tax when calculating the spread.

Copper purchases were strong in Asia ahead of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday that begins Wednesday.

"As soon as people in China come back from the New Year holiday, we should see even higher copper prices," said Jesus Villegas, an analyst with Texas-based consultancy Harbor Intelligence. "The Chinese will go back to the market and will sharply increase their purchases of copper from abroad."

With the Chinese demand adding to a continued recovery in developed economies, experts expect global demand will exceed supply this year.

Forecasts place the shortfall between 400,000 and 800,000 metric tons, said John Gross, an industry consultant who previously worked as a metals buyer for a wire and cable manufacturer.

Copper prices are also finding support from seasonal buying ahead of the summer construction season in the Northern Hemisphere, Mr. Gross said. That buying typically runs from January through March.

[admin]

El Brent Crudo siguio subiendo, cerro en 101.74

Brent Crude Extends Rally

By DAN STRUMPF
NEW YORK—The main U.S. oil contract retreated on worries over rising supplies, while its European counterpart shot to another two-year high above $102 a barrel.

Europe's Brent crude contract rallied as antigovernment protests in Egypt reached a fever pitch. The crisis in Egypt gave Brent an edge over the U.S. contract because oil prices in the region are more closely linked to Brent.

"If there's any [oil] shortfall because of dislocation from Egypt," it is more likely to affect the Brent contract, said Andy Lebow, an oil analyst at MF Global.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery settled down $1.42, or 1.5%, at $90.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled up 73 cents, or 0.7%, at $101.74 a barrel. The contract hit an intraday high of $102.08 a barrel, the highest trade since Sept. 29, 2008.

Worries persisted that disruptions at the Suez Canal, a key energy transit point, could lead to delays or bottlenecks in oil deliveries. In addition, Jordan's King Abdullah announced the dismissal of the country's government, raising fresh worries that the unrest that has shaken the government of Egypt—which is not a major oil producer—over the last week would spread to other countries.

Liam Denning from Heard on the Street explains why the prices of two widely traded crude contracts have been diverging of late.
.Still, reports Tuesday indicated the Suez Canal and the nearby Sumed pipeline, which transport large volumes of crude and refined products from the Middle East to Europe, were operating normally. Several analysts pointed out that shippers could easily reroute supplies around southern Africa if oil flows through the Suez were disrupted.

Meanwhile, worries about high inventories at the Nymex delivery point of Cushing, Okla., weighed on the price of Nymex crude. High stockpiles at the Oklahoma oil town have kept the price of the Nymex contract relatively restrained, even as Brent crude has raced past $100 a barrel. The Department of Energy is scheduled to report U.S. oil and fuel inventory levels Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, and analysts widely expect an increase in crude-oil stockpiles.

"We've seen refineries cut back on utilization and that crude will, in fact, end up in Cushing for the most part," said Peter Beutel, head of the oil trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover.

U.S. crude stocks are expected to rise 2.6 million barrels during the week ended Friday, according to a poll of analysts by Dow Jones Newswires. Gasoline stocks are seen rising 1.8 million barrels, while distillates, including heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall 1.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization is seen falling 0.3 percentage point to 81.5% of capacity.

Brent's rally sent its premium to WTI to as high as $11 a barrel Tuesday, up nearly $3 a barrel. Brent has sped ahead of WTI in recent weeks due to high inventories at Cushing, although the premium had narrowed somewhat in recent days.

Front-month March reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 1.93 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.5194 a gallon. March heating oil rose 1.67 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.7570 a gallon.

Write to Dan Strumpf at dan.strumpf@dowjones.com

[admin]

Copper February 01,21:38
Bid/Ask 4.5207 - 4.5240
Change +0.0011 +0.03%
Low/High 4.5069 - 4.5264
Charts

Nickel February 01,21:39
Bid/Ask 12.7399 - 12.7413
Change +0.1043 +0.83%
Low/High 12.5947 - 12.7422
Charts

Aluminum February 01,21:36
Bid/Ask 1.1322 - 1.1350
Change +0.0027 +0.24%
Low/High 1.1268 - 1.1350
Charts

Zinc February 01,21:38
Bid/Ask 1.1062 - 1.1079
Change -0.0012 -0.11%
Low/High 1.1021 - 1.1106
Charts

Lead February 01,21:38
Bid/Ask 1.1957 - 1.1979
Change +0.0019 +0.16%
Low/High 1.1821 - 1.2025

[admin]

Korea +0.11%, Australia +0.85%, el Hang Seng +1.58%, el Nikkei +1.91%

Yen up 81.45

Euro up 1.3838

Los futures del Dow Jones 3 putnos a la baja.

[admin]

Au down

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 19 hrs. 31 mins.
Feb 01, 2011 21:43 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1340.40 - 1341.40
Low/High 1324.50 - 1345.90
Change -1.50 -0.11%
30daychg -81.20 -5.71%
1yearchg +234.80 +21.24%
Charts...

[admin]

Oil up 90.84

[eduforever]

[admin]

Egipto y los realistas

Alli quedo la estabilidad en nombre de la libertad en el medio oriente.

Por la mayor parte del tiempo de la reciente historia diplomatica, la politica de US en el medio oriente ha sido enfatizar la estabilidad de los regimenes amigos por encima de las aspiraciones democraticas de los poblaciones arabes. Esta posicion ha sido llamada realismo politico. La realidad en las calles de Egipto es uno de los resultados.

En la semana de demostraciones contra Hosni Mubarak, Egipto ha sido sacudido por el desorden y la inestabilidad. Mr. Mubarak dijo que no buscara la reeleccion aunque intenta quedarse en el poder hasta que se haga la transicion. Este anuncio es bienvenido, pero no es suficiente en este momento para la oposicion que ahora controla las calles de Egipto.

Ademas de las fuerzas militares, el grupo mejor organizado para gobernar Egipto si el orden se pierde es el grupo antiamericano, los islamicos Muslim Brtoherhood.

Y eso seria el fin de la estabilidad.

Nadie sabe como terminara todo esto, pero vale la pena volver los ojos al pasado para recordar como fue que llegamos a donde estamos. Una sucesion de crisis en Egipto que no fueron previstas, y mucha gente vio la necesidad de desarrollar alternativas al radicalismo del Islam y Mubarak.

Nada menos que el presidente George W Bush puso la situacion de esta manera en su discurso del 2003 en el National Endowment for Democracy: "60 anios de las naciones del occidente excusando y acomodando la falta de liberta en el medio oriente no han hecho nada para mantenernos seguros - porque a largo plazo la estabilidad no se puede comprar sacrificando la libertad. Mientras el medio oriente se mantenga como una region donde la democracia no florezca, permanecera un lugar estagnado, resentido, y listo para exportar violencia"

Su posicion pasaria a llamarse "Freedom Agenda" la agenda de la l ibertad y en su segundo discurso de inauguracion Mr. Bush comprometio a US a hacer el trabajo "idealista de trabajar para ayudar a promover gobiernos libres y democraticos"

Es dificil el no decir que su politica fue denunciada tanto por la izquierda y la derecha y los titulares capturaron la oposicion "La cruzada de la libertad (interes nacional) y Libertad y Fraude (american Prospect).

A pesar de todos sus opositores, Mr. Bush persevero por la primera parte de su segundo gobierno. La secretaria de estado Condoleezza Rice viajo a El Cairo con su discurso: "Por 60 anios, US ha buscado la estabilidad a costa de la democracia de los pueblos del medio oriente - y no ha logrado ninguna de las dos cosas", ella dijo. " Ahora nosotros vamos a tomar un curso diferente" Ese mismo anio, ella cancelo su viaje en protesta contra la encarcelacion del candidato de la oposicion Ayman Nour. Los Egipcios lo soltaron.

El periodista Eli Lake, quien vivio en Egipto en esa epoca, escribio en el website de The New Republic lo que ocurrio en los siguientes meses. Mubarak le avento bombas lacrimogenas a los que iban a votar para dispersar a los votantes. El departamento de estado casi no dijo nada.

Mr. Mubarak sabia muy bien de que lado estaban los Americanos.

La dificil guerra en Iraq, el fracaso en las elecciones de medio termino de los republicanos y la victoria de Hamas en Gaza hicieron que el gobierno de Bush enfocara su atencion en otras cosas. Mr. Rice bajo su tono critico contra Egipto. A pesar de todo las relaciones entre el gobierno de Bush y Mubarak no eran buenas.

Luego siguio Obama con su politica de que US tenia sus propias debilidades morales, como presidente Obama ha enfocado sus politicas en renovar relaciones con los mas canallas de los dictadores como Putin, los comunistas Chinos y los gobierno Arabes.

Los egipios muy pronto respondieron diciendole a la nueva administracion que ya no implementaran las reformas politicas solicitadas por Bush.

Obama recorto el apoyo por la promocion de los programas de democracia en Egipto a la mitad, las elecciones en Egipto fueron una burla y un fraude y de nuevo US no dijo nada.

Esta posicion no pudo ser mas opuesta a la establecida por el presidente Reagan que instituyo cambios en los gobiernos de dictadores amigos como en las Philippiness y South Korea. Alli el gobierno de Reagan trabajo por anios para conseguir elecciones abiertas, reforzo lideres a travez de toda la socidad y protegio a los lideres de la oposicion. Cuando el publico se revelo, US tenia credibilidad con todos los sectores y podia presionar para establecer una transicion pacifica y estable. Reagan era un realista que entendia la realidad tenia que acomodarse a las aspiraciones de libertad.

Que contraste en Egipto, Obama ha sido sorprendido por los acontecimiento, dando manotasos desordenados para ponerse al dia con los acontecimientos. Los mismos que se oponian a Bush como John Kerry ahora estan diciendo que Mubarak tiene que irse.

Ahora nuestras alternativas son pocas y riesgosas. Que bien posicionados estariamos en Egipto hoy dia si pudieramos decir que pedimos la democracia y el cambio en su momento.


Egypt and the Realists
So much for stability in lieu of freedom in the Middle East.

For most of recent diplomatic history, American policy in the Mideast has tended to emphasize the stability of friendly regimes over the democratic aspirations of Arab populations. This approach is sometimes called foreign policy realism. The reality on the streets in Egypt is one result.

In the week since demonstrations began against Hosni Mubarak's regime, that U.S. ally and the Arab world's largest state has been gripped by disorder and uncertainty. Mr. Mubarak said last night he won't seek re-election later this year, though he intends to remain in power until then to negotiate a peaceful transition. This announcement is welcome, though it may not be enough at this late date to satisfy an opposition that now controls the streets. Other than the army, the group best organized to run Egypt if order breaks down is the Islamist and anti-American Muslim Brotherhood.

So much for that vaunted stability.

***
No one knows how all of this will unfold in the coming weeks, but as we watch it's worth looking back at how we got to this unhappy pass. A succession crisis in Egypt was not unforeseen, and many people saw the need to develop alternatives to Mr. Mubarak and radical Islam.

No less than President George W. Bush put it this way in 2003 in a speech to the National Endowment for Democracy: "Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe—because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty. As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence ready for export."

This became known as his "Freedom Agenda," and in his second inaugural Mr. Bush committed America to carry out "the idealistic work of helping raise up free governments."

It is hard to understate how roundly this agenda was denounced by the U.S. foreign policy establishment on both the left and right. Headlines captured the derision: "The Freedom Crusade" (National Interest) and "Freedom Fraud" (American Prospect). "Historical, ideological and political claptrap," wrote Les Gelb, former head of the Council on Foreign Relations, in 2005 in remarks typical of the liberal realist school.

In spite of his detractors, Mr. Bush persevered for the first part of his second term. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice even took the theme to Cairo in 2005 with a pointed speech. "For 60 years, the United States pursued stability at the expense of democracy in the Middle East—and we achieved neither," she said. "Now, we are taking a different course." That same year, she cancelled a trip there as a protest against the jailing of opposition presidential candidate Ayman Nour. The Egyptians released him.

Journalist Eli Lake, who lived in Egypt at the time, recounts on The New Republic website what happened in the next few months. Mr. Mubarak routed Mr. Nour in a presidential election and then allowed a relatively free round of parliamentary elections. But in the second and third rounds, police ambushed polling stations and used tear gas to disperse voters. The U.S. State Department said almost nothing.

Mr. Nour was soon back in prison. When U.S. ambassador to Egypt at the time, Frank Ricciardone, was asked about Mr. Nour's case at a Cairo "model American Congress," he replied: "Do you know I would actually like to ask all of you in this room that question. Because I bet if there are a hundred people, I bet I'd get a hundred different answers." After some rambling, he added: "You know, if Egyptians are not sure what to make of this, then I hope you will forgive Americans for not understanding the complexity of this case."

Mr. Mubarak knew whose side the Americans were really on.

The difficult war in Iraq, the GOP wipeout in the 2006 midterms and Hamas's election victory in Gaza all turned the Bush Administration's gaze elsewhere. Ms. Rice preferred to focus on the realist holy grail of the Mideast "peace process," and she was soon back in Cairo singing a softer tune on political freedom. Still, relations with Mr. Mubarak were strained, and he didn't visit the White House through the end of the Bush Presidency.

Enter Senator Barack Obama, who wrote in Foreign Affairs in the summer of 2007 that "In the Islamic world and beyond, combating the terrorists' prophets of fear will require more than lectures on democracy." Mr. Obama's form of realism was different from the traditional kind that at least consistently extols the pursuit of raw national interest. Instead, he stressed America's own moral weaknesses and that "to build a better, freer world, we must first behave in ways that reflect the decency and aspirations of the American people."

As President, his foreign policy has focused instead on renewing relations with the world's nastier characters—Russia's Vladimir Putin, the Chinese Communists and Arab governments.

The Egyptians quickly responded by telling the new Administration to drop the Bush emphasis on political reform. "Wherever [Mr. Mubarak] has seen these U.S. efforts, he can point to the chaos and loss of stability that ensued," reported current U.S. ambassador to Cairo Margaret Scobey in a 2009 diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and published in the New York Times.

Speaking before an audience at Cairo University in June 2009, President Obama called for a "new beginning" between the U.S. and the Muslim world. He repeated some Bush talking points, expressing his commitment "to governments that reflect the will of the people" and "freedom to live as you choose." He even used the word "democracy."

But around the same time, the Administration sent a different signal. The U.S. cut support for democracy promotion programs in Egypt by more than half, after Ambassador Scobey advised that such programs annoyed Mr. Mubarak. This past November, the regime waved off U.S. calls for international monitors for parliamentary elections and cracked down on the opposition and media. The election was a fiasco of fraud, and again the U.S. said little.

***
This record couldn't be more of a contrast with how the Reagan Administration pursued reform under dictators friendly to U.S. interests in the Philippines and South Korea. There, the Administration spent years promoting open elections, building ties to leaders across society, and protecting opposition leaders from harm. When the public revolts eventually came, U.S. officials had credibility with all sides and were able to press a peaceful and stable transition. Reagan was a realist who understood that reality had to accommodate human aspirations for freedom.

In Egypt, by contrast, the Obama Administration has been caught on its back foot, scrambling to keep up with events. Some of the same people who reviled Mr. Bush for pushing democracy—Senator John Kerry—are now even saying the U.S. should demand Mr. Mubarak's ouster. Yesterday in advance of Mr. Mubarak's remarks, White House officials leaked that Mr. Obama had urged the Egyptian not to run for re-election—another frantic effort to get some political credit for events that were already inevitable and still may be too little, too late.

Now our policy choices are few and risky. How much better positioned would we be in Egypt today if we were able to take some credit for the calls for freedom and democratic change?

[admin]

Obama no sabe donde esta parado, es un cero a la izquierda en economica, politica, relaciones exteriores, etc, etc. es un desastre el pobre, una burla grotesca de lo que deberia ser un presidente de US.

[admin]

Que buena esa caricatura!!

[admin]

El Senado votara para rechazar el seguro de salud de Obama el Miercoles.

Senate to Vote on Health-Law Repeal
GOP Seizes on Ruling Calling the Measure Unconstitutional; Democrats Downplay Judge's Decision

By NAFTALI BENDAVID
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid responds Tuesday to a proposal by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to repeal the health-care legislation.
.WASHINGTON—Senate Republicans, seizing on a court ruling that the health-care overhaul passed last year is unconstitutional, will push ahead with a vote to repeal the legislation.

The Senate effort, expected Wednesday, is almost certain to fail, likely ensuring that the push by Congress to undo the health measure goes no further, at least until the next election.

But GOP leaders said the law was unpopular, and that given two court rulings declaring all or part of the legislation unconstitutional, they were sending an important message by holding the vote. Two other federal judges have upheld the law.

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
."The importance of a repeal vote becomes more evident every day," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.). "Americans view it as an important decision point, a marker that shows we're serious about a return to limited government."

He added, "At this point, it would be a dereliction of duty if Republicans didn't fight for repeal."

The GOP-controlled House voted to repeal the health measure in January.

Democrats said that erasing the law would undo provisions that were already helping Americans, such as one allowing children to stay on their parents' health insurance until age 26.

They also downplayed Monday's decision by U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson calling the law unconstitutional.

"I don't think this should be a 'gotcha' moment," said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D., Mo.). "I think this should be a moment of trying to quit using an honest and sincere effort to get affordable and accessible health care for Americans, quit using it as a political football, and let's try to come together and try to fix anything that needs to be fixed."

Judge Vinson's decision said Congress had no authority under the Constitution to require people to carry health insurance or pay a penalty, as the legislation does. The law's supporters say Congress has that right because the Constitution gives lawmakers the power to regulate interstate commerce

The case is expected to end up at the Supreme Court. Lawyers said the court was likely to have a chance to hear the case as soon as its 2011-12 term, as two federal appellate courts in Richmond, Va., and Cincinnati are already considering the law.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in Richmond is reviewing two challenges to the health law on an expedited basis and will hear oral arguments in May. That means a decision could be ready in time for the Supreme Court to hear an appeal and issue a decision during its next term, which begins in October and runs through June 2012. However, the high court has discretion on when and whether it hears cases.

The 26 states that won Monday's decision are weighing whether to ask the Supreme Court to hear the case before it has been fully litigated in lower courts, a person familiar with the matter said Tuesday, but the Supreme Court rarely grants such requests.

The legislative and judicial jockeying has ensured that the health law stays in the spotlight almost a year after its passage. Republicans say that's because the law is unpopular, while Democrats say Republicans are wasting time. Polls show the public roughly divided on the law.

In Tuesday's maneuvering, Democrats offered an amendment to remove a requirement in the health law that businesses file a tax form when they buy more than $600 from a single vendor. That provision, designed to raise funds by making tax evasion harder, has been criticized by both parties as a burden on small business.

Republicans responded by offering an amendment to repeal the entire law. Democrats agreed to a vote on it and said they welcomed the chance to explain again why the law is a good thing. They plan to raise a "point of order" saying repeal will add billions to the deficit. GOP leaders would need 60 votes to overcome the objection. Both votes are expected Wednesday.

None of the Senate's 53 Democrats and independents have publicly expressed support for full repeal, meaning the GOP effort will likely fall short. Recognizing that repeal is a long shot—even if the Senate joined the House in enacting repeal, Mr. Obama would almost certainly veto it—Republicans are pushing smaller bills to alter the health law or chip away at it.

In the House, lawmakers last week introduced a measure to curb medical-malpractice lawsuits. In the Senate, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R., Utah) and others have introduced a measure repealing the law's $20 billion tax on medical device makers.

All 47 Senate Republicans have said they will vote for repeal, and Mr. McConnell appealed on the Senate floor for Democrats to join the effort.

"For all those who supported the health law, it's an opportunity to re-evaluate your vote, to listen to your constituents who are desperately trying to get your attention," he said.

[admin]

ADP dijo que se crearon 187,000 empleos en el sector privado.

-10

[admin]

OIl up 90.94. Au down 1,339, Ag down, futures cu down

Euro down 1.3808

-9

Libor igual 0.31%

Europa mixta

El Asia cerro al alza

Yields down 3.39%