Viernes 04/02/11 Situacion del empleo

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Viernes

Eventos economicos

Situacion del desempleo

Cuantos empleos se crearon en Enero
Nivel de desempleo

Monster Employment Index


Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET


Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET

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Se espera una creacion de 140,000 empleos en Enero.

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El Nikkei +1.14%, Australia +0.87%

Los futures del Dow Jones sin cambio.

Au down 1,352.30, oil up 90.86

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Copper February 03,21:39
Bid/Ask 4.5139 - 4.5167
Change +0.0031 +0.07%
Low/High 4.5094 - 4.5289
Charts

Nickel February 03,21:34
Bid/Ask 12.5885 - 12.6221
Change +0.0046 +0.04%
Low/High 12.5467 - 12.6633
Charts

Aluminum February 03,21:00
Bid/Ask 1.1223 - 1.1244
Change +0.0025 +0.22%
Low/High 1.1200 - 1.1254
Charts

Zinc February 03,21:35
Bid/Ask 1.1118 - 1.1143
Change +0.0022 +0.20%
Low/High 1.1074 - 1.1166
Charts

Lead February 03,21:25
Bid/Ask 1.1881 - 1.1943
Change +0.0031 +0.26%
Low/High 1.1835 - 1.2016

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El oro sube por Egipto y Bernanke



Old Yeller! Gold Jumps on Egypt, Big Ben

By Dave Kansas

Bloomberg
What, me worry? Gold seems to have snapped out of its funk today.

On the Comex, gold rose for the second time in three days, adding a solid $20.80, or 1.6%, to $1352.30. Cousin Silver also added 1.5% to $28.7330, its fourth increase in five sessions.

The events in Egypt are certainly helping the dark-hearted goldbugs gather more adherents. Chaos is, umm, golden to them. But perhaps more important than the violence in Egypt, the big central bankers unexpectedly released a dole of doves today despite more signs of the recovery improving.

Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, has recently associated himself with concerns about incipient inflation. Earlier today, however, after the ECB policy meeting he stressed that the ECB isn’t about to raise short-term rates anytime soon.

Meantime, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke’s cautious optimism about the recovery seemed bearish for gold and positive for the dollar. But upon reflection, gold investors latched on to Big Ben’s assertion that with high unemployment and little inflation in sight, the Fed will keep supporting the economy. In other words, rates won’t be going up anytime soon.

Some Old Yeller loverz believe that the central banks will keep rates low for too long, leading to inflation that will make currencies less valuable. For now, the central banks seem reluctant to raise rates, even in the face of some inflation and increasing signs of a recovery starting to gather steam. The challenge for the central bankers: even as developed economies recover, the jobless rate remains high.

In the U.K., inflation is creeping toward 5% — more than double the target rate, but the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King hasn’t shown much worry about the rising prices. Inflation is just over the ECB 2% target in Europe and in the U.S. the core consumer price index rose 0.8% in 2010.

After struggling through most of January, Old Yeller and Cousin Silver is liking February a bit more.

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Respeto por ADP: la figura del empleo es mas brillante de lo que pensamos

El sector privado puede tener mas pulso del que pensamos.

Respect for ADP: Jobs Picture Is Brighter Than Thought

By KELLY EVANS
It has been dubbed "Another Dumb Payroll" report and a "random number generator." But the ADP employment report doesn't entirely deserve its bad rap.

In fact, the Labor Department's official jobs data, out Friday, may show payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. has done a better job of capturing the labor market's recent behavior than many think. ADP's data, usually released two days before the official jobs figure, showed job creation was unusually weak in early 2010 and has been much stronger since November. Eventually, government data may show that ADP was closer to the mark than many realized.

For example, the Labor Department's annual benchmark revisions, out Friday, could lower its original tally of job growth from April 2009 through March 2010 by as much as half a million jobs. That is partly because its model appears to have overestimated the scale of new business formation in the early stages of the recovery.

Now, the opposite may be happening. ADP this week reported private-sector job growth of 187,000 for January. Official numbers Friday are expected to show overall gains of 140,000 jobs, though severe weather could crimp that. Government layoffs will account for some of the difference, but economists think the private-sector number will also lag behind ADP, at around 155,000. That would leave the government's tally of private-sector job growth since November roughly one third below ADP's level.

Stronger labor-market data from other sources seem to support ADP's case. The employment index of the ISM manufacturing survey just hit its highest level since 1973. The drop in new jobless claims since August has been one of the swiftest in four decades. Loan growth and improving confidence suggest better conditions for small and new businesses, the engine of job creation.

Maria Teresa Padilla, an Employment Development Department employee, left helps Angelina Aceves, 70, look for jobs at the South Count Career Center in Chula Vista, Calif., on Wednesday.
.ADP may better capture this new business formation than Labor Department estimates. BofA Merrill Lynch economist Michelle Meyer notes that new firms show up in ADP data after two months of existence; the government doesn't have complete records until much later. Indeed, more than half the 187,000 new jobs ADP reported last month came from businesses with fewer than 50 employees.

The U.S. labor market is still far from healthy. But the private sector may have a stronger pulse than most realize.

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Ronald Reagan a los 100 anios

El ser un hombre bueno lo ayudo a convertirse en un hombre grandioso

By Peggy Noonan

En la biblioteca Presidencial, a los pies de Santa Susana Mountain Range donde los antiguos directores de Hollywood filmaban las peliculas de Western, se marcara el centenario del nacimiento de Ronald Reagan con eventos y discursos que abriran el renovado y repensado museo donde se mostrara mas de la mitad de notas y memorabilia que no se han hecho publicas hasta ahora. Ensayos y notas que Reagan escribio en el colegio y en la universidad, el terno que tenia el dia que le dispararon, el libro de condolencias firmado por los lideres mundiales en su funeral (Margaret Thatcher: "Bien hecho: un sirviente bueno y fiel")

Se ha escrito mucho recientemente acerca de quien fue el - un hombre bueno que se convirtio en un gran presidente - pero recientes conversaciones acerca de Reagan me hacen pensar que algunos dicen cosas no son.

El no era, por ejemplo, sentimental, aunque se piensa que lo fue. Su naturaleza estaba marcada por una caracterologia de dulzura, y sus impulsos eran de una persona buena y generosa. Muy adentro era un esceptico. Por eso el era conservador. "Si los hombres fueran angeles" Pero no los son por eso debemos limitar el poder del gobierno.

Reagan tenia ese sentido del humor que le hacia decir chistes como este por ejemplo: Un amigo le dice a otro con pesar "siento que tu esposa se haya fugado con el jardinero". El amigo contesta, "Esta bien, igual lo iba a despedir de todas maneras"

El peor malentendido acerca de la vida politica de Reagan es que el era inevitable. El no lo era. El tuno que pelear por cada pulgada, para que las cosas ocurriera. Lo que Billy Herndon dijo de Abraham Lincoln tambien fue verdad con Reagan: El tenia dentro de el, siempre una incansable pequenio motor de ambicion. El era muy bueno para no mostrarlo, igual que Lincoln, pero alli estaba. El estuvo en lo mejor de su vida, al menos desde 1976, cuando el trato de quitarle la silla al presidente de su propio partido.

El era serio y estricto. Todos los que compitieron contra el lo subestimaron. El era un actor, ellos pensaban, un marxmallow. Ellos decian: le quitare la sonrisa de la cara. Nada podia quitar la sonrisa de su rostro. El estaba alli para competir, el estaba alli apuntando a lo mas alto. Su inconciente lo sabia. El me conto que siempre soniaba que viviria en una mansion con cuartos muy grandes, altos techos, paredes blancas, el podia pensar que era una casa que estaba disponible a un precio que podia pagar. El soniaba hasta que se mudo a la Casa Blanca y nunca mas volvio a tener ese suenio, ni una sola vez mas.

El se presento a la presidencia cuatro veces y perdio dos veces.

En la candatura de Reagan se le pidio a los americanos que eligieran a un actor y divorciado que lucia como el presidente mas conservador desde Calvin Loolidge. Votar por Reagan era correr el riesgo de elegir a un hombre poco usual con una poco usual biografia, pero tambien se les pedia romper con las creencias del nuevo acuerdo de la Gran Sociedad acerca de la apropiada relacion entre el individuoy el gobienro. Los americanos lo eligieron - con una gran mayoria - pero solo despues que Jimmy Carter fracaso enormemente en su gobierno.

Nada de esto era inevitable. La leccion politica de la vida de Ronald Reagan fue que: Nada esta escrito.

El no pensaba en si mismo como el "gran comunicador." Siempre dijo que no era el estilo de sus palabras si no el contenido de las mismas, lo que marcaron la diferencia. El decia" yo no era el gran comunicador, si no el que comunicaba grandes cosas" No era su elocuencia lo que los americanos apoyaban si no sus posiciones contra el gobierno grande, y la intromision y demandas del comunismo Sovietico. Los votantes no estaban enamorados de lo que decia, estaban convencidos.

Su triunfo politico mas subestimado? en la primavera de 1981 cuando los controladores de aviacion se fueron a la huelga. Recien empezaba la presidencia de Reagan. El habia sido el presidente de un sindicato. El no queria parece como un republicano anti-sindicatos. Y el sindicato de controladorea aereos habia sido uno de los pocos sindicatos que lo apoyaron en 1980. Pero la huelga era ilegal. El no podia aceptarlo. el les dio dos dias de periodo de gracia para que regresaran a trabajar. Si ellos no se reintegraban a sus trabajos, serian despedidos. Ellos no le creyeron. La mayoria no regreso a trabajar. Entonces reagan los despidio. El rompio al sindicato. La Union Sovietica y todos los demas estaban mirando. Ellos pensaron: este hombre es serio. Tuvo implicaciones muy positivas para la politica exterior de US. Pero aqui esta el detalle: Reagan no sabia que pasaria, el no sabia las consecuencias que traerian sus acciones. El solo estaba tratando de hacer lo correcto.

La menos entendida de sus politicas nucleares" el odiaba el aumento de las armas nucleares. Por eso se empezo el Strategic Defense Initiative, con el deseo de proteger a millones de una potencial destruccion. Lo genial de programa: cuando se desarrllo, America compartiria con la Soviet Union. Lo compartiriamos con todo el resto del mundo. Todos estarian protegidos.

Los sovieticos se opusieron; la cumbre de Rejkavik se frustro por ese motivo y al final el gasto en armamento por parte de los sovieticos los quebro y acelero su caida. Anios mas tarde veriamos Mikhail Gorbachev, quien se convirtio en amigo de Reagan. El todavia estaba molesto acerca de los discursos de Reagan. A Reagan le gusta el espectaculo, se quejaba Gorbachev. Los fracasos de esos anios le dolian y era comprensible, fue derrotado por un hombre inteligente, pero derrotado por un hombre bueno, eso era demasiado.



Ronald Reagan at 100

Being a good man helped him become a great one.

By PEGGY NOONAN
Simi Valley, Calif.

At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, in the foothills of the Santa Susana Mountain Range where old Hollywood directors shot Westerns, they will mark Sunday's centenary of Reagan's birth with events and speeches geared toward Monday's opening of a rethought and renovated museum aimed at making his presidency more accessible to scholars and vividly available to the public. Fifty percent of the artifacts, officials note, have never been shown before—essays and short stories Reagan wrote in high school and college, the suit he wore the day he was shot, the condolence book signed by world leaders at his funeral. (Margaret Thatcher: "Well done, Thou good and faithful servant.")

Much recently has been written about who he was—a good man who became a great president—but recent conversations about Reagan have me pondering some things he was not.

He wasn't, for instance, sentimental, though he's often thought of that way. His nature was marked by a characterological sweetness, and his impulse was to be kind and generous. (His daughter Patti Davis captured this last week in a beautifully remembered essay for Time.) But he wasn't sentimental about people and events, or about history. Underlying all was a deep and natural skepticism. That, in a way, is why he was conservative. "If men were angels." They are not, so we must limit the governmental power they might wield. But his skepticism didn't leave him down. It left him laughing at the human condition, and at himself. Jim Baker, his first and great chief of staff, and his friend, remembered the other day the atmosphere of merriness around Reagan, the constant flow of humor.

But there was often a genial blackness to it, a mordant edge. In a classic Reagan joke, a man says sympathetically to his friend, "I'm so sorry your wife ran away with the gardener." The guy answers, "It's OK, I was going to fire him anyway." Or: As winter began, the young teacher sought to impart to her third-graders the importance of dressing warmly. She told the heart-rending story of her little brother, a fun-loving boy who went out with his sled and stayed out too long, caught a cold, then pneumonia, and days later died. There was dead silence in the schoolroom as they took it in. She knew she'd gotten through. Then a voice came from the back: "Where's the sled?"

The biggest misunderstanding about Reagan's political life is that he was inevitable. He was not. He had to fight for every inch, he had to make it happen. What Billy Herndon said of Abraham Lincoln was true of Reagan too: He had within him, always, a ceaseless little engine of ambition. He was good at not showing it, as was Lincoln, but it was there. He was knowingly in the greatness game, at least from 1976, when he tried to take down a sitting president of his own party.

Future US president Ronald Reagan
.He was serious, and tough enough. Everyone who ever ran against him misunderstood this. He was an actor, they thought, a marshmallow. They'd flatten him. "I'll wipe the smile off his face." Nothing could wipe the smile off his face. He was there to compete, he was aiming for the top. His unconscious knew it. He told me as he worked on his farewell address of a recurring dream he'd had through adulthood. He was going to live in a mansion with big rooms, "high ceilings, white walls." He would think to himself in the dream that it was "a house that was available at a price I could afford." He had the dream until he moved into the White House and never had it again. "Not once."

He ran for president four times and lost twice. His 1968 run was a flop—it was too early, as he later admitted, and when it's too early, it never ends well. In 1976 he took on an incumbent Republican president of his own party, and lost primaries in New Hampshire, Florida, Illinois (where he'd been born), Massachusetts and Vermont. It was hand-to-hand combat all the way to the convention, where he lost to Gerald Ford. People said he was finished. He roared back in 1980 only to lose Iowa and scramble back in New Hampshire while reorganizing his campaign and firing his top staff. He won the nomination and faced another incumbent president.

In Reagan's candidacy the American people were being asked to choose a former movie star (never had one as president) who was divorced (ditto) and who looked like he might become the most conservative president since Calvin Coolidge. To vote for Reagan was not only to take a chance on an unusual man with an unusual biography, but also to break with New Deal-Great Society assumptions about the proper relationship between the individual and the state. Americans did, in a landslide—but only after Jimmy Carter's four years of shattering failure.

None of it was inevitable. The political lesson of Ronald Reagan's life: Nothing is written.

He didn't see himself as "the great communicator." It was so famous a moniker that he could do nothing but graciously accept the compliment, but he well understood it was bestowed in part by foes and in part to undercut the seriousness of his philosophy: "It's not what he says, it's how he says it." He answered in his farewell address: "I never thought it was my style or the words I used that made a difference: it was the content. I wasn't a great communicator, but I communicated great things." It wasn't his eloquence people supported, it was his stands—opposition to the too-big state, to its intrusions and demands, to Soviet communism. Voters weren't charmed, they were convinced.

His most underestimated political achievement? In the spring of 1981 the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization called an illegal strike. It was early in Reagan's presidency. He'd been a union president. He didn't want to come across as an antiunion Republican. And Patco had been one of the few unions to support him in 1980. But the strike was illegal. He would not accept it. He gave them a grace period, two days, to come back. If they didn't, they'd be fired. They didn't believe him. Most didn't come back. So he fired them. It broke the union. Federal workers got the system back up. The Soviet Union, and others, were watching. They thought: This guy means business. It had deeply positive implications for U.S. foreign policy. But here's the thing: Reagan didn't know that would happen, didn't know the bounty he'd reap. He was just trying to do what was right.

The least understood facet of Reagan's nuclear policies? He hated the rise of nuclear weapons, abhorred the long-accepted policy of mutually assured destruction. That's where the Strategic Defense Initiative came from, his desire to protect millions from potential annihilation. The genius of his program: When developed, America would share it with the Soviet Union. We'd share it with everybody. All would be protected from doomsday.

The Soviets opposed this; the Rejkavik summit broke up over it, and in the end the Soviets' arms spending helped bankrupt them and hasten their fall. Years later I would see Mikhail Gorbachev, who became Reagan's friend. He was still grumpy about Reagan's speeches. "Ron—he loved show business!" Mr. Gorbachev blustered. The losses of those years must have still rankled, and understandably. It's one thing to be outmaneuvered by a clever man, but to be outfoxed by a good one—oh, that would grate.

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Sigue la violencia en Egipto.

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El desmantelamiento del seguro de salud de Obama ha empezado.

Esta semana el Senado voto para borrar el reporte al IRS y es el principio del desmantelamiento de pieza por pieza de la ley.

Marquen este dia, el 2 de Febrero del 2011 el senado democratico anulo la primera pieza del seguro de salud de Obama que se aprobo hace menos de un anio. Aceptando la realidad, 34 senadores democratas corrieron a incluirse entro los 81 senados que le dieron un hachazo a 1099 tax requerimiento de reporte.



ObamaCare's Repeal Has Begun

This week's Senate vote to scrap an IRS reporting requirement is the start of a piece by piece approach.

By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL..

Mark this date: On Feb. 2, 2011, a Democratic Senate killed the first piece of the health-care law it passed less than a year ago. Bowing (finally) to reality, 34 Democrats rushed to be among the 81 senators who axed the bill's odious 1099 tax reporting requirement.

Let the ObamaCare dismantling begin.

The White House and Democrats have worked hard in recent weeks to suggest that this first casualty of their signature legislative achievement was no big deal. President Obama went so far as to make the idea his own in his State of the Union address, offering up the end of 1099 as an example of his willingness to "improve" his health legislation. And the death of 1099 was indeed overshadowed by this week's headlines that the Senate GOP had failed to repeal the larger bill.

It is nonetheless worth recalling the 1099 saga. The entire arc of this tale—from Democrats' initial defense of the provision, to this week's full-scale rout—is an example of how dramatically politics has shifted. It has also starkly laid out the real threat that the White House faces over ObamaCare in the coming year. It's not full repeal. With 1099, Republicans have shown they intend to rip it up piece by piece.

The 1099 provision was a new requirement that businesses report to the IRS annual purchases from any contractor above $600. The provision targeted 40 million businesses and other organizations, crushing them under a costly bookkeeping mandate. But hey, desperate Democrats needed funds to pay for their $1 trillion healthathon. By closing this "loophole," they claimed, the IRS could commandeer a whole $17 billion in previously uncollected taxes.

This was symbolic of the entire slapdash process and rotten substance of ObamaCare. Like so many provisions, it mysteriously appeared in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's 2,000-plus page bill; to this day, no Democrat has claimed authorship.

Like so many provisions, it received no due diligence, and no attention until after it became law. Only then did National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson, a federal employee, explain that its giant costs would likely outweigh any new tax compliance. The requirement, it turns out, doesn't just crush businesses—it also crushes churches, charities and municipalities.

Republican Sens. Mike Johanns (Neb.), left and John Barrasso (Wyo.).
.Nebraska Sen. Mike Johanns and California Rep. Dan Lungren turned the issue into a cause. By last July, the business community was in an uproar, and both Republicans had introduced 1099 repeal. Yet Democrats refused to back down.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi held a vote on a House bill that would have repealed 1099 but also imposed costly new taxes on multinationals. She knew Republicans wouldn't vote for it (they didn't), which allowed her to keep 1099 while blaming the GOP.

Senate Democrats flat-out defended the provision. When Mr. Johanns got a September vote on repeal, he lured just seven Democrats—not enough for passage. In truth, many Democrats simply liked the provision, as evidenced by their votes for Florida Democrat Bill Nelson's amendment to keep 1099 but to raise the threshold to $5,000. (That, too, failed.) The White House remained opposed to repeal.

Only after their November rout did vulnerable senators begin to jump to Mr. Johanns. Yet Mr. Reid obstructed. In late November, Mr. Johanns marshaled 61 votes for repeal—including 21 Democrats—but Mr. Reid set the rules so that he needed 67. As for the nay votes, they were now balking at cutting even $17 billion from unused government money.

By January, the pendulum had swung. The White House, eager to put on a centrist smile, adopted 1099 repeal as its own. Senate Democrats followed this week. Mr. Reid, knowing he'd be hard-pressed to stop another vote, deputized Michigan Democrat Debbie Stabenow (who needs some re-election help) to steal Mr. Johanns's bill.

She changed five words and offered it as her own amendment to the Federal Aviation Authority reauthorization bill. Mr. Reid then allowed a vote on her amendment, while blocking Mr. Johanns's.

With a Democratic sponsor, 1099 repeal got 34 Democrats. Thus does the leadership that wrote the offensive provision, voted for it, and defended it, now take credit for exterminating it.

Republicans aren't exactly bitter. If the GOP is to dismember ObamaCare, it must pressure Democrats into helping. That's what Republicans did this week. Next up for debate will be other odious elements: the individual mandate, taxes on kids' braces, restrictions on health savings accounts, cuts to Medicare. The GOP will highlight each one and then ask 2012 Democrats what they are willing to defend.

What does the White House do then? Some Democrats are already jumping ship on these other issues. This week also showed that—unless Mr. Reid intends to halt all legislation—Senate Republicans may be able to force ObamaCare votes. The White House gave its sanction to 1099 repeal, but that won't end the debate on "fixing" ObamaCare. That debate has just begun.

Write to kim@wsj.com

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Los futures del Dow Jones 10 puntos al alza.

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Maniana: empleos, empleos, empleos

136,000 empleos y el desempleo en 9.5%

Reportan utilidades

Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
By Matt Phillips
Earnings season continues, with reports from the likes of:

Aetna Inc.
Clorox
Fortune Brands
PulteGroup, Inc.
Tyson Foods
Economics:

8:30 a.m. — The big enchilada on the economics calendar this month, the nonfarm payrolls report for January arrives. The consensus calls for the addition of 136,000 jobs during the month, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.5% from 9.4% in December. Employers added 103,000 jobs in December. We’ll be liveblogging the jobs report bright and early, so be sure to swing back here tomorrow morning.

[admin]

+10

Aetna reporto mejores resultados que los esperados.

Europa al alza, el Asia cerro al alza.

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Price: US$/lb 

Copper February 04,06:59
Bid/Ask 4.5190 - 4.5219
Change +0.0082 +0.18%
Low/High 4.5025 - 4.5289
Charts

Nickel February 04,06:59
Bid/Ask 12.6348 - 12.6493
Change +0.0509 +0.40%
Low/High 12.5467 - 12.6929
Charts

Aluminum February 04,06:59
Bid/Ask 1.1261 - 1.1271
Change +0.0064 +0.57%
Low/High 1.1155 - 1.1308
Charts

Zinc February 04,06:59
Bid/Ask 1.1148 - 1.1156
Change +0.0051 +0.46%
Low/High 1.1074 - 1.1200
Charts

Lead February 04,06:58
Bid/Ask 1.1936 - 1.1946
Change +0.0087 +0.73%
Low/High 1.1835 - 1.2016

[admin]

7:08 a.m. EST 02/04/11Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   -1/32 0.721
10-Year Note   -1/32 3.552
* at close
6:58 a.m. EST 02/04/11Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 90.69 0.15 90.54
Gold, April 1349.9 -3.1 1353.0
DJ Industrials 12019 10 12009
S&P 500 1303.30 0.00 1303.30
7:09 a.m. EST 02/04/11Currencies
  Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 81.61 81.57
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3626 1.3635
† Late Thursday in New York.

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Au down

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 10 hrs. 4 mins.
Feb 04, 2011 07:11 NY Time
 Bid/Ask 1349.80 - 1350.80
 Low/High 1324.00 - 1357.20
 Change -5.80   -0.43%
30daychg -29.30   -2.13%
1yearchg +286.10   +26.91%
Charts...