Jueves 10/02/11 seguros de desempleo

[admin]

Eventos economicos

Jueves

Seguros de desempleo
Comercio de mayoristas

Market Focus »


Weekly Bill Settlement

52-Week Bill Settlement

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET

Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
 

[admin]

Durante 1982 a 1990 Reaganomics creo 21 millones de empleos. Las politicas adecuadas pueden hacerlo de nuevo.


OPINIONFEBRUARY 9, 2011, 7:19 P.M. ET
Reaganomics: What We Learned
From December 1982 to June 1990, Reaganomics created over 21 million jobs. The right policies can do it again.
By ARTHUR B. LAFFER

For 16 years prior to Ronald Reagan's presidency, the U.S. economy was in a tailspin—a result of bipartisan ignorance that resulted in tax increases, dollar devaluations, wage and price controls, minimum-wage hikes, misguided spending, pandering to unions, protectionist measures and other policy mistakes.

In the late 1970s and early '80s, 10-year bond yields and inflation both were in the low double digits. The "misery index"—the sum of consumer price inflation plus the unemployment rate—peaked at well over 20%. The real value of the S&P 500 stock price index had declined at an average annual rate of 6% from early 1966 to August 1982.

For anyone old enough today, memories of the Arab oil embargo and price shocks—followed by price controls and rationing and long lines at gas stations—are traumatic. The U.S. share of world output was on a steady course downward.

Then Reagan entered center stage. His first tax bill was enacted in August 1981. It included a sweeping cut in marginal income tax rates, reducing the top rate to 50% from 70% and the lowest rate to 11% from 14%. The House vote was 238 to 195, with 48 Democrats on the winning side and only one Republican with the losers. The Senate vote was 89 to 11, with 37 Democrats voting aye and only one Republican voting nay. Reaganomics had officially begun.

President Reagan was not alone in changing America's domestic economic agenda. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, first appointed by Jimmy Carter, deserves enormous credit for bringing inflation down to 3.2% in 1983 from 13.5% in 1981 with a tight-money policy. There were other heroes of the tax-cutting movement, such as Wisconsin Republican Rep. Bill Steiger and Wyoming Republican Sen. Clifford Hansen, the two main sponsors of an important capital gains tax cut in 1978.

View Full Image

Associated Press
Ronald Reagan after signing his first tax cut, Aug. 14, 1981.

What the Reagan Revolution did was to move America toward lower, flatter tax rates, sound money, freer trade and less regulation. The key to Reaganomics was to change people's behavior with respect to working, investing and producing. To do this, personal income tax rates not only decreased significantly, but they were also indexed for inflation in 1985. The highest tax rate on "unearned" (i.e., non-wage) income dropped to 28% from 70%. The corporate tax rate also fell to 34% from 46%. And tax brackets were pushed out, so that taxpayers wouldn't cross the threshold until their incomes were far higher.

Changing tax rates changed behavior, and changed behavior affected tax revenues. Reagan understood that lowering tax rates led to static revenue losses. But he also understood that lowering tax rates also increased taxable income, whether by increasing output or by causing less use of tax shelters and less tax cheating.

Moreover, Reagan knew from personal experience in making movies that once he was in the highest tax bracket, he'd stop making movies for the rest of the year. In other words, a lower tax rate could increase revenues. And so it was with his tax cuts. The highest 1% of income earners paid more in taxes as a share of GDP in 1988 at lower tax rates than they had in 1980 at higher tax rates. To Reagan, what's been called the "Laffer Curve" (a concept that originated centuries ago and which I had been using without the name in my classes at the University of Chicago) was pure common sense.

There was also, in Reagan's first year, his response to an illegal strike by federal air traffic controllers. The president fired and replaced them with military personnel until permanent replacements could be found. Given union power in the economy, this was a dramatic act—especially considering the well-known fact that the air traffic controllers union, Patco, had backed Reagan in the 1980 presidential election.

On the regulatory front, the number of pages in the Federal Register dropped to less than 48,000 in 1986 from over 80,000 in 1980. With no increase in the minimum wage over his full eight years in office, the negative impact of this price floor on employment was lessened.

And, of course, there was the decontrol of oil markets. Price controls at gas stations were lifted in January 1981, as were well-head price controls for domestic oil producers. Domestic output increased and prices fell. President Carter's excess profits tax on oil companies was repealed in 1988.

The results of the Reagan era? From December 1982 to June 1990, Reaganomics created over 21 million jobs—more jobs than have been added since. Union membership and man-hours lost due to strikes tumbled. The stock market went through the roof. From July 1982 through August 2000, the S&P 500 stock price index grew at an average annual real rate of over 12%. The unfunded liabilities of the Social Security system declined as a share of GDP, and the "misery index" fell to under 10%.

Even Reagan's first Democratic successor, Bill Clinton, followed in his footsteps. The negotiations for what would become the North American Free Trade Agreement began in Reagan's second term, but it was President Clinton who pushed the agreement through Congress in 1993 over the objections of the unions and many in his own party.

President Clinton also signed into law the biggest capital gains tax cut in our nation's history in 1997. It effectively eliminated any capital gains tax on owner-occupied homes. Mr. Clinton reduced government spending as a share of GDP by 3.5 percentage points, more than the next four best presidents combined. Where Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton slipped up was on personal income tax rates—allowing the highest personal income tax rate to eventually rise to 39.6% from 28%.

The true lesson to be learned from the Reagan presidency is that good economics isn't Republican or Democrat, right-wing or left-wing, liberal or conservative. It's simply good economics. President Barack Obama should take heed and not limit his vision while seeking a workable solution to America's tragically high unemployment rate.

Mr. Laffer is the chairman of Laffer Associates and co-author of "Return to Prosperity: How America Can Regain Its Economic Superpower Status" (Threshold, 2010).

[admin]

Copper February 09,21:18
Bid/Ask 4.5246 - 4.5270
Change +0.0223 +0.50%
Low/High 4.4930 - 4.5293
Charts

Nickel February 09,21:13
Bid/Ask 12.9455 - 12.9795
Change +0.0476 +0.37%
Low/High 12.8707 - 13.0249
Charts

Aluminum February 09,21:17
Bid/Ask 1.1301 - 1.1312
Change +0.0020 +0.18%
Low/High 1.1263 - 1.1336
Charts

Zinc February 09,21:16
Bid/Ask 1.1087 - 1.1098
Change +0.0098 +0.89%
Low/High 1.0981 - 1.1130
Charts

Lead February 09,21:16
Bid/Ask 1.1575 - 1.1606
Change +0.0106 +0.93%
Low/High 1.1468 - 1.1643
Charts

[admin]

Korea -0.45%,el Hang Seng -0.55%, el Nikkei -0.04%, Australia +0.04%.

Yen down 82.54

Euro down 1.3710

Oil up 86.77

Los futures del Dow Jones 3 puntos al alza.

[admin]

PetroChina compra Encana por $5.4 billones.

Las ordenes de maquinarias en japon suben por primera vez en cuatro meses.

[admin]

9:30 p.m. EST 02/09/11Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 86.78 0.07 86.71
Gold, April 1362.1 -3.4 1365.5
DJ Industrials 12210 3 12207
S&P 500 1319.60 0.40 1319.20
9:41 p.m. EST 02/09/11Currencies
  Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 82.54 82.37
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3711 1.3734
† Late Wednesday in New York.

[admin]

Las bolsas de EE.UU. cierran con pocos cambios

Por Jonathan Cheng
Dow Jones Newswires

Las acciones en Estados Unidos cerraron el miércoles sin una dirección definida, pero el Promedio Industrial Dow Jones logró subir por octava sesión consecutiva mientras los inversionistas daban la bienvenida a un par de informes corporativos trimestrales positivos y a las señales de que la Reserva Federal continuará respaldando a la economía.

El Dow repuntó en las postrimerías de la sesión para concluir con un alza de 6,74 puntos, o 0,06%, a 12.239,89, un nuevo máximo de 30 meses. La racha de ocho sesiones consecutivas es la más larga del Dow desde marzo, para un ascenso acumulado de 3,5%. El índice de acciones líderes ha subido un 2,9% en lo que va del año.

Walt Disney encabezó las alzas en el índice con un avance de 5,3%. La ganancia de la empresa ascendió un 54% en el primer trimestre de su año fiscal, superando las expectativas de los analistas, en tanto las divisiones de medios y parques temáticos presentaban resultados más sólidos tanto en los ingresos como en las ganancias.

Coca-Cola trepó un 0,5%. La compañía informó que su ganancia aumentó en el cuarto trimestre gracias a los beneficios relacionados con la adquisición de las operaciones norteamericanas de su mayor embotelladora, además de la mayor demanda, especialmente fuera de Estados Unidos.

También dentro del Dow, Hewlett-Packard, 3M y Travelers, presentaron ascensos de 1,5% o más.

Sin embargo, el Dow fue presionado por las compañías del sector energético. Chevron bajó 1,5% y Exxon Mobil descendió 0,5%.

Las financieras también se mostraron débiles. J.P. Morgan Chase bajó 1,4% luego que uno de los ejecutivos del banco se disculpara por realizar cobros excesivos a 4.500 miembros activos del ejército por hipotecas, y por realizar indebidamente ejecuciones de hipotecas en 18 casos.

El Standard & Poor's 500 retrocedió 0,3% a 1320,80, mientras que el Índice Compuesto Nasdaq bajó un 0,3% a 2789,07.

"Nos hemos acostumbrado tanto a los resultados sólidos que temo el momento en que no tengamos una buena temporada de resultados", afirmó Dan Cook, presidente ejecutivo de IG Markets. Por ahora, sin embargo, Cook señaló que las sólidas ganancias han hecho que los operadores se muestren renuentes a desafiar el repunte.

La interrogante es, añadió, si la economía será capaz de mantener su fortaleza luego que finalice la política de flexibilización monetaria de la Fed. "Es difícil decir si algo es autosostenible hasta que se retira la ayuda para mantener el funcionamiento vital", dijo.

Los inversionistas iniciaron la sesión más bien con cautela luego que los mercados asiáticos registraran descensos generalizados durante la madrugada después que los inversionistas de esa región tuvieran su primera oportunidad de reaccionar al aumento de tasas de interés de China anunciado tarde el martes. Los índices de Hong Kong, India y Corea del Sur todos cayeron a sus cierres más bajos del año.

Ante la ausencia de cifras económicas en el calendario estadounidense, los inversionistas se dedicaron a prestar atención a los comentarios del presidente de la Reserva Federal, Ben Bernanke, ante un panel del Congreso, quien reiteró sus preocupaciones sobre la fortaleza de la economía y restó importancia a los temores sobre la inflación.

"No estamos viendo mucha reacción a la declaración de Bernanke, aparte de que es probable que el desempleo permanezca alto durante algún tiempo", dijo Mark Turner, jefe de negociaciones de venta de Instinet. "El mercado ha sido muy positivo con las cifras de ganancias corporativas y hemos estado subiendo. Definitivamente nos hemos extendido demasiado y, en cierto punto, estamos encaminados a algún tipo de retroceso".

En el frente de los resultados corporativos, Polo Ralph Lauren subió un 8,3% tras informar que sus ingresos crecieron un 24% a US$1.500 millones en el tercer trimestre de su año fiscal, y que las ventas en tiendas comparables aumentaron un 15%. La compañía también anunció un aumento de dividendo.

Las acciones de consumo discrecional mostraron el desempeño más sólido dentro de las empresas del S&P 500. Sears Holdings avanzó un 2% y J.C. Penney sumó un 2,2%.

NYSE Euronext se disparó un 14%. La operadora de bolsa confirmó el miércoles que mantiene negociaciones avanzadas de fusión con Deustche Boerse AG en una operación que se realizaría con acciones. La operación daría lugar a una de las mayores plataformas de negociación de acciones y derivados del mundo.

La noticia se produce horas después que London Stock Exchange Group y TMX Group de Toronto acordaran una "fusión de iguales" que crearía un grupo trasatlántico que contaría con más de 6.700 compañías cotizando en sus mercados. Estas compañías sumarán una capitalización bursátil de 3,7 billones de libras esterlinas.

Las acciones de LSE Group subieron 3,1%, mientras que las de TMX Group avanzaron 6,5%.

American International Group descendió un 3% después que la aseguradora informara que asumirá un cargo de US$4.000 millones para aumentar sus reservas.

[admin]

Australia creo 24,000 empleos.

[admin]

El Hang Seng cayo mas del 2% por las medidas de adjuste en China, Europa a la baja por malos resultados corporativos. Todo a la baja.

-43

Euro down, oil down, metales down.

[Maricielo]

Oro en Londres 1357.30. Esperemos que abra NY

[admin]

Copper February 10,07:39
Bid/Ask 4.4802 - 4.4829
Change -0.0221 -0.49%
Low/High 4.4662 - 4.5361
Charts

Nickel February 10,07:39
Bid/Ask 12.7827 - 12.7981
Change -0.1152 -0.89%
Low/High 12.7301 - 13.0249
Charts

Aluminum February 10,07:39
Bid/Ask 1.1242 - 1.1250
Change -0.0039 -0.34%
Low/High 1.1223 - 1.1341
Charts

Zinc February 10,07:37
Bid/Ask 1.0900 - 1.0905
Change -0.0090 -0.82%
Low/High 1.0827 - 1.1130
Charts

Lead February 10,07:38
Bid/Ask 1.1439 - 1.1457
Change -0.0030 -0.26%
Low/High 1.1384 - 1.1643
Charts

[admin]

Oil down 86.34

-50

Au down 1,358.60

[admin]

Libor igual 0.31%

Europa down, el Asia cerro mixta.

-48

Yields up 3.66%

Oil down 86.47

Inglaterra dejo sus intereses intactos en 0.5%

CSCO -8.67%

Euro down 1.3629

[admin]

Oil down 86.50

Esperando las cifras de los seguros de desempleo, eso movera al mercado.

[admin]

Futures cu down 4.5030

Euro down 1.3619