Miercoles 16/12/11, Anuncio del Fed, produccion industrial

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Miercoles

Eventos economicos

Solicitudes de hipotecas
Inicios de casas
PPI precio de los productores
Produccion industrial
Reporte del petroleo
Anuncio del Fed

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET


Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET


Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET

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10:15 p.m. EST 02/15/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 84.69 0.37 84.81
Gold 1373.9 -0.2 1365.1
DJ Industrials 12240 38 12224
S&P 500 1331.20 4.90 1326.30

10:26 p.m. EST 02/15/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 83.72 83.82
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3536 1.3482
† Late Tuesday in New York.

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Live Spot Prices

SPOT PRICE IS OPEN
Price: US$/lb 

Copper February 15,22:19
Bid/Ask 4.5029 - 4.5041
Change -0.0145 -0.32%
Low/High 4.5018 - 4.5329
Charts

Nickel February 15,22:18
Bid/Ask 12.9434 - 12.9661
Change +0.0295 +0.23%
Low/High 12.9139 - 12.9978
Charts

Aluminum February 15,22:18
Bid/Ask 1.1117 - 1.1136
Change +0.0044 +0.40%
Low/High 1.1055 - 1.1153
Charts

Zinc February 15,22:18
Bid/Ask 1.1106 - 1.1115
Change +0.0018 +0.16%
Low/High 1.1074 - 1.1188
Charts

Lead February 15,22:19
Bid/Ask 1.1813 - 1.1827
Change +0.0061 +0.52%
Low/High 1.1745 - 1.2017

[admin]

Reportan NVIDIA, Deere

Los inicios de casas +0.2%
Produccion industrial +0.5%

Tomorrow’s Tape: NVIDIA, Deere and a Slew of Economic Data

In earnings, we’ll get reports from:

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc
Deere & Company
Dean Foods
NetApp, Inc.
NVIDIA Corp.
In economics we’ll get reports including:

8:30 a.m. — Housing starts are expected to hit a 530,000 annualized rate, up 0.2% in January. Last time, private building of new homes dropped 4.3% in December from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000 — the lowest level of housing starts since October 2009.
8:30 a.m. — An update on the inflationary pressures that everybody’s been squawking about recently will arrive in the form of fresh producer price index data. The producer-price index, which measures how much manufacturers and wholesalers pay for goods and materials, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in December. That was the sixth consecutive month producer prices have risen. But excluding food and energy, so-called core prices rose just 0.2% last month and were up a mere 1.3% for the year.
9:15 a.m. — Industrial production and capacity numbers for January are expected to show a 0.5% increase for January. Last time, industrial production — the output of U.S. factories, utilities and mines — rose 0.8% in December, from November. Much of that gain was due to a weather-related 4.3% jump in utility output. But a 0.4% increase in manufacturing output suggested the economy is on a good footing.
10 a.m. — Treasury Secretary Geithner talks the budget in the Senate.

[admin]

El Shanghai C. +0.17%, el Hang Seng +0.72%, el Nikkei +0.74%, Australia +0.16%, Korea +0.36%,

Euro up 1.3537, yen up 83.71

Los futures del Dow Jones 38 puntos al alza.

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+43

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El dolar en sus niveles mas altos frente al yen en dos meses. La menor inflacion en Inglaterra ayudo a subir al oro.

Exxon tiene problemas para encontrar mas petroleo y comienza a enfocarse su modelo de negocio hacia el gas natural.

Merlife dijo que favorecia el pago de dividendos a sus stockholders en lugar de hacer mas adquisiciones.

Por segundo mes China vendio bonos Americanos a $891.6 billones. Inglaterra fue el comprador mas grandes de bonos en Diciembre. Se sospecha que China los esta comprando mediante managers en London. Que graciosos los Chinos.

[admin]

Negocio lucrativo para los bancos.

Esta si que es noticia:
Los bancos estan separando billones de dolares para hacer algo que hasta ahora no habian hecho: otorgar prestamos a los municipios, estados, escuelas y otras instituciones publicas que de otra manera se habrian dirigido al mercado de bonos. (emision de deuda)

Cuando California necesitaba conseguir $25 millones para expandir su centro de artes, los bancos le propusieron otorgarle el prestamo, City National Bank de los Angeles gano la propuesta.

Nunca antes se habia hecho esto, generalmente los gobiernos locales emiten deuda mediante bonos.


Banks Go Straight to Public Borrowers

By IANTHE JEAN DUGAN
Banks are setting aside billions of dollars to do something that until now was rarely heard of: making big loans to cities, states, schools and other public borrowers that otherwise might have turned to the bond market.

When Riverside, Calif., was ironing out a bond offering recently to expand its performing-arts center, several banks pitched a radical idea: Why not take out a loan instead? The city scrapped the bond plan and borrowed $25 million from City National Bank in Los Angeles.

"This was a method we'd never even heard of before," says Scott Catlett, the city's assistant finance director. He says Riverside now intends to seek a bank loan for a conference center that it had planned to build with bonds.

It could find a robust reception for its business. Banks are aggressively courting municipal borrowers with conventional loans for capital projects.

This effort, known as direct lending, is partly directed at borrowers like Riverside that need money to build and have relatively good credit ratings.

Riverside, Calif., borrowed $25 million from City National Bank to expand its Fox Performing Arts Center.
.In other cases, the loans are aimed at helping public borrowers, for a price, out of a squeeze that banks helped create. During the financial crisis a few years ago, many public borrowers floated bonds backed by bank guarantees called letters of credit.

This year, about $53 billion of those letters of credit are expiring, according to Thomson Reuters. Municipal borrowers struggling to refinance this debt face tough new terms and interest rates at banks.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is devoting billions of dollars to direct loans this year to both refinance deals and for new projects, according to a bank official. Last year, the bank made a few hundred million dollars of direct loans to municipalities. Now, the bank would consider making a single loan for hundreds of millions of dollars, the official said. It also is dispatching teams to explain the concept to wary public borrowers.

Citibank also is courting municipal borrowers with direct loans, according to several bond issuers. A spokesman for the Citigroup Inc. unit declined to comment.

"This used to be unheard of," says Eric Friedland, managing director of public finance at Fitch Ratings, noting that in the past, banks would occasionally loan a municipality less than $1 million to finance projects too small for a bond offering. For bigger loans, they would form a syndicate with other lenders.

It remains to be seen what land mines may be lurking for lenders and borrowers. Some municipalities are going through significant struggles, raising questions about whether they will prove good credits. And direct loans are less liquid, meaning banks can't sell them as easily as bonds.

For borrowers, many of these loans must be paid back more rapidly than a bond. So the loans could prove something of a time bomb for borrowers.

Municipalities that have taken out direct loans say interest rates are typically lower than they would pay in the bond market, and they don't have to pay underwriters and lawyers to prepare a public offering. They also can avoid the documents and administration involved in the public disclosure required for bond offerings.

Elgin Academy, a preparatory school in Illinois, turned to direct lending to replace an $11 million bond for improvements on campus. The bond had been supported by a letter of credit, according to a person familiar with the matter. During the financial crisis, bondholders sold, forcing the bank to buy back the bonds at high interest rates, which got passed along to the school. It recently borrowed $10 million from a community bank to get out of the deal.

For banks, this is a potentially lucrative business at a time when they are sitting on cash that isn't earning huge interest and are reluctant to make loans for mortgages and other areas they see as risky.

The loans help banks comply with new international rules that are requiring banks to put aside more capital to buffer against losses, bankers say.

They also are helping banks dig out of their own deals that backfired and restoring some strained relationships with clients that can provide future business.

In the event of a bankruptcy, analysts say, it is unlikely that a bank extending a direct loan would be given priority over bondholders.

It is more likely that the bank and bondholders would be on equal footing in laying claims to recover their money, though it would depend on what each lender negotiated.

When word got out that Riverside, Calif., was floating a bond recently, several bankers called offering direct loans.

The city had bought a 1929 landmark building called the Fox Theater, renovated it with cash raised via a bond sale, and was raising new money for an expansion and garage. Instead, the city cobbled together the loan in December.

The city saved hundreds of thousands of dollars in issuance costs, says Mr. Catlett, the assistant finance director. Plus, he says, the interest rate is 3.85% versus at least 5% if it had floated a public offering. The term is slightly lower—21 years versus perhaps 30 years in the bond market.

"This was all new to us," he says. "I don't know now when we'll go back to the bond market. This is easier."

[admin]

No es por nada, pero se han fijado en GE ultimamente?

Sus acciones han subido alrededor de 17% mucho mas que el 5.6% del S&P 500 y 5.5% del DJ.


By The Way: GE is Looking Supercharged.
By Matt Phillips

Not for nothing, but have you seen GE lately? (Big up, Schenectady!)

The shares of the industrial behemoth have been sizzling so far in 2011. The stock is up roughly 17%, outpacing the 5.6% increase in the S&P and the 5.5% in the Dow.

The stock has been on fire since Jan. 21, when the company surprised positively in its last earnings report. The company reported its first revenue rise in more than two years.

Alack, at last glance the stock is trading around 20x its earnings over the last 12 months, meaning much of the potential value in the shares may have been snapped up already. Over the last five years the stock has traded on average at around 15.8 times its last 12 months earnings.

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Las ganancias de BHP Billiton suben 72%

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Se le otorgo la Medalla a la Libertad al presidente numero 41 Papa Bush.

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Las acciones en el Asia subian gracias a las mejoras en las recomendaciones de los analistas (upgrades)

Los analsitas mejoraban las recomendaciones de las acciones en el Asia desde Toshiba hasta Westpac Banking Corp.

Lo peor de las condiciones economicas ya han pasado.

Rio Tinto dijo que pagaria dividendos de 64 cents. superando las expectativas de los analistas.

Asian Stocks Climb to One-Week High as Analysts Upgrade Shares
By Sarah Jones - Feb 15, 2011 10:04 PM ET
Asian stocks advanced, sending the regional benchmark index to a one-week high, as analysts recommended companies from Toshiba Corp. to Westpac Banking Corp. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Asian stocks climbed as Nomura Holdings Inc. raised its growth forecasts for Japan and analysts upgraded companies from Toshiba Corp. to Westpac Banking Corp.

Toshiba, the world’s second biggest maker of flash memory, rallied 2.8 percent while Westpac climbed 0.7 percent. Iluka Resources Ltd. and Kobe Steel Ltd. also climbed with analysts upgrades. BHP Billiton Ltd., which reported a 72 percent jump in first-half profit today, dropped in Sydney trading.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 138.02 as of 11:54 a.m. in Tokyo, recouping yesterday’s retreat. The gauge last week sank 2.7 percent after China raised borrowing costs and anti-government protests intensified in Egypt, eventually forcing President Hosni Mubarak to resign.

“The worst of the economic conditions are behind us,” said Junichi Misawa, head of equity investment at Tokyo-based STB Asset Management Co., which oversees about $14 billion. “If the global economy continues to recover, that should boost Japanese stocks.”

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average gained 0.4 percent amid optimism about the nation’s economy. The Bank of Japan yesterday raised its economic assessment for the first time in nine months.

“We now expect the Japanese economy to emerge from its lull sooner than we had previously thought,” economists wrote in a report sent to clients yesterday. We “are forecasting a return to an upward trajectory in 2011 Q1.”

Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi Index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index were little changed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.1 percent while the Hang Seng Index rose 0.4 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.3 percent after the benchmark for U.S. equities yesterday fell from a 32-month high as retail sales missed economists’ forecasts and Exxon Mobil Corp. dropped.

Toshiba jumped 2.8 percent to 547 yen in Tokyo after Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. raised its recommendation for the shares to “outperform” from “neutral.”

Westpac gained 0.7 percent to A$24.48 after Deutsche Bank AG upgraded Australia’s second-largest lender to “buy” from “hold.”

Iluka Resources gained 3.2 percent to A$9.95 as Royal Bank of Scotland Group upgraded the world’s biggest zircon producer to “buy” while Kobe Steel increased 1.7 percent to 239 yen. Both Citigroup Inc. and Nomura Holdings also raised their recommendation for the steelmaker to “buy.”

BHP paced declining shares dropping 1.8 percent to A$46.52 as copper retreated in London and the mining company declared an interim dividend of 46 cents. That was below the projected dividend of 48 cents, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Earlier in the week rival Rio Tinto Group said it will pay a final dividend of 64 cents which beat a Bloomberg forecast.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Jones in Sydney at sjones35

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LECTURA OBLIGATORIA PARA LOS QUE INVIERTEN EN METALES (o sea todos los foristas)

La demanda de metales en India se duplicara gracias al sector transporte y proyectos de energia.

India es la segunda economia de mayor crecimiento en el Asia, podria duplicarse en cinco anios y se mantiene robusta por una decada, impulsafa por el aumento de la venta de carros y el mas alto gasto en inversiones en proyectos de infraestructura.

El crecimiento en la demanda de los metales basicos podria subir entre el 10 y el 15% este anio, dijo Sumit Verma, analista de Geojit Comtrade Ltd. Eso se compara con un promedio de crecimiento del 6% para la demanda de aluminio y cobre, y 4.3% para el zinc entre 1972 y 2009, dijo Barclays Capital en Noviembre, prediciendo que la demanda subiria 80% para el 2015.

La demanda de acero se duplicara en los proximos cinco anios y no me sorprenderia si la demanda para los metales no ferrosos como el cobre y el aluminio duplique su ritomo, dijo Kunal Shah, head de commodity research de Nirmal Securities Pvt. en Mumbai.

El primer ministro ha propuesto una inversion de $1 trillon en los proximos 5 anios hasta el 2017 para mejorar las carreteras, ferrocarriles y plantas de energia, los cuales le quitan un 2% de crecimiento a la economia India.

Se espera que para el 2020 India supere a US como el segundo consumidor de cobre, aluminio y zinc para el 2020, dijo Barclays.

Se espera que la economia de India crezca 8.6%

Metals Demand in India May Double on Transport, Power Projects
By Madelene Pearson - Feb 15, 2011 7:33 PM ET
Metals demand in India, Asia’s second-fastest growing major economy, may double in five years and remain robust for a decade, fueled by rising car sales and higher spending on infrastructure projects, analysts said.

Growth in demand for base metals may jump 10 percent to 15 percent this year, said Sumit Verma, an analyst at broker Geojit Comtrade Ltd. That compares with an average annual increase of 6 percent for aluminum and copper, and 4.3 percent for zinc between 1972 and 2009, Barclays Capital said in November, predicting demand to jump 80 percent by 2015.

“Steel demand may double in the next five years and I will not be surprised if demand for non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum grow at twice the pace,” said Kunal Shah, head of commodity research with Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. in Mumbai.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has proposed $1 trillion of spending in the five years through 2017 to upgrade the nation’s road, railway and power networks, which the finance ministry says shaves 2 percentage points from growth. Commodity demand in India has reached a “tipping point” and the nation may surpass the U.S. as the second-largest consumer of copper, aluminum and zinc in the early 2020’s, Barclays said.

“The drivers will be growth and development of key sectors of the economy like infrastructure, power, construction, energy and transportation,” Geojit’s Verma said in an e-mailed reply to questions. “The outlook for next five to 10 years is bullish.”

India’s economy will probably grow 8.6 percent in the year to March, the most in three years, the government’s statistics office said on Feb. 7. The nation expanded at 8.9 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with the 9.8 percent growth in the three months ended Dec. 31 in China, the largest consumer of everything from copper to zinc and iron ore.

Record Sales
Rising salaries and economic expansion pushed car sales in India to a record last month. Deliveries climbed 26 percent to 184,332 vehicles in January, the 24th consecutive monthly year- on-year increase, according to figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers on Feb. 9.

Aluminum demand in India may climb an average 8 percent a year between 2009 and 2030, Barclays said, predicting growth in copper and zinc usage at 8.6 percent and 8.5 percent each. In absolute terms, the country’s aluminum demand growth from 2009 and 2015 will be equal to Korea’s current consumption or twice Canada’s, the report said.

Hindalco Industries Ltd., India’s largest aluminum maker, on Feb. 12 reported a 7.7 percent gain in third-quarter profit because of higher base metal prices and said global demand for the metal is expected to be “robust” for the rest of the year. Sterlite Industries Ltd., the nation’s top copper producer, last month reported a 60 percent jump in earnings.

China Spending

Commodities beat gains in stocks, bonds and the dollar in 2010 as China led the recovery from the first global recession since World War II. The rally in raw materials may be extended this year as the global economy recovers and infrastructure spending in China boosts demand for copper and other base metals, Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities and commodities at JP Morgan Chase & Co. said yesterday in Singapore.

Copper on the London Metal Exchange reached a record $10,190 a metric ton yesterday, boosted by manufacturing growth in China and the U.S., the top two users.

“We are holding bullish for base metals prices,” said Sundeep Jain, an analyst at Karvy Comtrade Ltd. “Demand on the one side is robust from emerging markets, be it India or China, and on the other, supply is not able to catch up with demand.”

[admin]

El petrole sube despues de estar en su punto mas bajo en las ultimas 11 semanas despues que el reporte del petroleo mostro que los inventarios habian bajado.

El petroleo avanzo en NY 0.5% despues que el american Petroleum Institute dijo quelos inventariso de petroleo habian bajado 354,000 barriles en la semana que termino el 11 de Fec. El Dpto. de Energia mostrara hoy dia que los inventarios subieron 2 millones la semana pasada, de acuerdo a los estimados de 13 analistas entrevistados por Bloomberg.

Oil Gains From 11-Week Low After Report Shows U.S. Supplies Fell
By Ben Sharples and Ann Koh - Feb 15, 2011 9:10 PM ET
Oil advanced from an 11-week low in New York after an industry-funded report showed crude supplies declined in the U.S., signaling a demand recovery in the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity.

Futures advanced as much as 0.5 percent after the American Petroleum Institute said inventories slid 354,000 barrels in the seven days ended Feb. 11. An Energy Department report today may show stockpiles increased 2 million barrels last week from 345.1 million barrels, according to the median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“Economic data in the U.S. and Europe are getting better than before and this is encouraging a lot of positive response from investors putting money into commodities,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. “Physically there’s no shortage of oil in the world.”

Crude for March delivery gained as much as 45 cents to $84.77 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $84.71 at 1:05 p.m. Sydney time. The contract slid to $84.32 yesterday, the lowest since Nov. 30. Prices have declined 8 percent this month and are 10 percent higher than a year ago.

The gain in New York futures has outpaced London’s Brent crude this week, narrowing the spread between the benchmark prices. The difference between the April contracts was at $14.07 a barrel today, from $14.35 on Feb. 14. The March West Texas Intermediate contract in New York expires on Feb. 22.

Cushing Supplies

Brent crude for April settlement advanced 43 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $102.07 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. Yesterday, it dropped $1.44, or 1.4 percent, to $101.64 a barrel.

U.S. crude inventories probably rose for a fifth week in the seven days ended Feb. 11 as TransCanada Corp. completed an extension of a pipeline to Cushing, adding to the glut at the country’s biggest oil-trading hub, a Bloomberg News survey showed. TransCanada started deliveries to Cushing on Feb. 8 in the second phase of its Keystone pipeline project.

The Energy Department report may show gasoline stockpiles climbed 1.85 million barrels in the seven days ended Feb. 11, matching the longest streak of gains since August. The industry- funded American Petroleum Institute said yesterday that inventories increased 1.24 million barrels to 240.9 million.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne

[admin]

La fusion entre el NYSE y BORSE de Alemania originara mas fusiones. La nueva sociedad se convertira en el exchange mas grande del mundo, actualmente la mas grande es la de Hong Kong.