Miercoles 23/02/11 Posible guerra civil en Libia

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Los que apoyan a Gadhafi abren fuego en Tripolo

Fuego pesado se abrio en la capital de Libia el Miercoles cuando las fuerzas leales a Gadhafi atacaron a los manifestantes en las calles un dia despues que el lider juro defender su gobienro e hizo un llamado a los que lo apoyan a aplastara los que protestan en su contra.



Gadhafi Backers Open Fire in Tripoli

By CHARLES LEVINSON in Tobruq, Libya, MARGARET COKER in Abu Dhabi and TAHANI KARRAR-LEWSLEY in Dubai
Heavy gunfire broke out in Libya's capital Wednesday as forces loyal to leader Moammar Gadhafi opened fire in the streets a day after the longtime leader vowed to defend his rule and called on supporters to crack down on antigovernment protesters.

Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi publicly defied protesters seeking to end his rule, vowing to remain in the country "until the end" as that country closed its ports, suspending oil exports. Margaret Coker and John Bussey discuss.
.The fighting in Tripoli came as the opposition reportedly seized control of Misurata, with witnesses saying people were honking their horns and raising pre-Gadhafi flags from the monarchy to celebrate.

Misurata would be the first major city in the west to fall to antigovernment forces, which have mainly been concentrated in the east. Faraj al-Misrati, a local doctor, said six residents had been killed and 200 injured since Jan. 18, when protesters attacked offices and buildings affiliated with Col. Gadhafi's regime.

New videos posted by Libya's opposition on Facebook also showed scores of antigovernment protesters raising the flag from the pre-Gadhafi monarchy on a building in Zawiya, on the outskirts of Tripoli. Another showed protesters lining up cement blocks and setting tires ablaze to fortify positions on a square inside the capital. The footage couldn't be independently confirmed.

The Libyan ruler publicly defied protesters seeking to end his rule in a rambling, 80-minute address on state television Tuesday. He vowed to take back the eastern cities under rebel control and show no mercy to those he says have acted against the nation. Civil-rights group say Col. Gadhafi's brutal crackdown across the country has left at least 300 dead over six days.

Protesters have been backed by defections from military and diplomatic ranks. On Tuesday, Libya's top policeman, a longtime Gadhafi loyalist, joined the string of diplomats, soldiers and others to abandon their leader of 42 years. In a video aired on the Al Jazeera news channel Tuesday, Interior Minister Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi announced his support for anti-Gadhafi protesters and called on Libya's armed forces to switch loyalties.

Mr. al-Abidi is significant not only because he heads the General People's Committee for Public Security—as Libya calls its interior ministry—but for his long history at the heart of the regime and his affiliation to a big eastern tribe.

"Al-Abidi has been a regime loyalist since the coup that brought Gadhafi to power in 1969, when he took over a radio station," said Charles Gurdon, managing director of Menas Consulting in London. "Then he was in charge of Benghazi until 2007, where he put down riots and was a judge in show trials that ordered executions. But he's a member of the al-Obaidat tribe from the Sa'adi confederation in the east and that's probably why he's defected."

According to Libya analysts their departures are more damaging to Mr. Gadhafi for the momentum they give protesters than the holes they leave in his government. Aside from the interior minister, the justice minister and the head of protocol are all believed to have quit, along with a handful of the country's top diplomats.

The slow melting away of Mr. Gadhafi's government has left many areas under the control of Libya's many tribes, which are spread across the country with each claiming the fealty of thousands of members. Although Mr. Gadhafi set out to weaken the tribes when he came to power, he eventually realized he needed to keep them within the system and grew adept at playing one tribe off against another.

In recent decades, Libyans have developed a strong sense of national identity, but they still feel a separate loyalty to their tribe and their region. "The tribal element of Libyan identity is very strong," said Mohammed El-Katiri, an analyst with Eurasia Group Middle East. "Given the benefits people can get from the tribe, it can even be stronger than allegiance to the state."

Mr. Gadhafi's son, Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, warned on Sunday that tribal divisions could lead to civil war if the situation wasn't quickly calmed. Analysts say that threat was mostly scaremongering, but they are worried tribal infighting could push the country towards anarchy.

What also worries them is the danger that tribes could lay claim to the country's energy facilities. The main oil fields and production sites are in areas of the country dominated by smaller tribes that lack the strength to seize them for themselves. But the two main export pipelines—one going east and the other west—both run through territory controlled by more powerful groups.

One of these—the Zawiya—has already threatened to cut off supplies according to the Arabic press. El-Katiri said the Warfla in eastern Libya could now do the same. "There are only a few tribes strong enough to take over oil facilities—mostly in the east of the country near Benghazi," he said. "The Warfla might take this approach."

Two of the largest tribes—the Magariha and the Gadhfa—can count on the support of hundreds of thousands of members, and had their leaders placed in top positions in the regime, the army and big business. In return for their loyalty, members of those tribes might be rewarded with jobs, government contracts or more lenient treatment if they fall foul of the authorities—possible incentives to help Gadhafi fight things out.

The Libyan leader himself belongs to the Gadhfa tribe, while his long-time second-in-command Abdessalam Jalloud and convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbasset al-Megrahi both hailed from the Magariha. However, there are reports that some members of both tribes have joined anti-Gadhafi protests and there is no guarantee they will stay loyal to the regime.

By contrast the Warfla, the biggest of the country's tribes, has long been cut out of the power structure—and has now nailed its colors to the mast by backing the rebellion against Gadhafi. Its main stronghold is the deprived east of the country, once the seat of Libya's royal family and focal point of resistance against colonialism, but now a bastion of opposition to the regime.

Scholars say the tribes' interest in politics has no basis in ideology, which tribal leaders generally espouse as a convenient way to exploit the prevailing political winds. Rather than try to interfere in government policy, they tend to use their connections to improve the tribe's position and extract favors from the regime.

"The only time they had an ideology was during the independence movement," said El-Katiri. "Now there is a strong Islamist presence among tribal members in the east of the country. But the tribe itself probably wouldn't support that because it's not a good long term strategy for becoming more powerful inside the state."

On Wednesday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy pressed for European Union sanctions against Libya's regime because of its violent crackdown on protesters, and raised the possibility of cutting all economic and business ties between the EU and the North African nation.

"The continuing brutal and bloody repression against the Libyan civilian population is revolting," Mr. Sarkozy said in a statement. "The international community cannot remain a spectator to these massive violations of human rights."

Italy's Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said estimates of some 1,000 people killed in the violence in Libya are "credible," although he stressed information about casualties was incomplete. Libya is the biggest supplier of oil to Italy, which has extensive energy, construction and other business interests in the north African country and decades of strong ties to its former colony.

The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday condemned the use of force against civilians and called for "an immediate end to violence and for steps to address the legitimate demands of the population." The U.S. said it would use a government chartered ferry to evacuate Americans from Libya to Malta on Wednesday.

Rahman Shalgam, the Libyan ambassador to the U.N.—who didn't resign with the rest of his staff and remains loyal to Col. Gadhafi—gave an emotional and at times "contradictory" speech behind closed doors to the U.N. Security Council Tuesday, according to a diplomat present at the private meeting. Mr. Shagam said "he'd be first to condemn attacking civilians," the diplomat said.

The events threw one of the region's major oil economies into turmoil. Libya's ports—including Zawia, Tripoli, Benghazi and Misurata—have been closed, traders in the country said. Foreign oil companies, including Italy's Eni SpA and Spain's Repsol YPF, said they had suspended some operations.

With Col. Gadhafi inciting more clashes and the streets around Tripoli still heavily patrolled by uniformed security forces, many Libyans feared that the nation could fracture on tribal or regional lines.

"We've been calling for an end to Gadhafi's rule for years," said Hafed Al-Ghwell, a U.S.-based Libyan opposition activist. "But what we've always feared is the day after. Right now it looks like the worst-case scenario is coming true—that Libya becomes like Somalia, with every strongman with a gun ruling his own fiefdom."

In the eastern town of Tobruq, Maj. Gen. Suleiman Mahmoud disagreed. A top commander of Libya's eastern military forces until he defected from the army on Feb. 20, Gen. Mahmoud said Col. Gadhafi had once successfully played tribes against each other, but that in recent years, these groups have generally been more united.

"This is propaganda that if Gadhafi dies, then Libya will fall apart in civil war," he said. "Libyan society is united. We have responsible and capable generals and academics who can step up when Mr. Gadhafi falls."

On the ground in the eastern chunk of Libya, the signs of rebellion are plain to see in the armories of a military base near Baida: Weapons crates lie busted open and empty. Rifles are missing from their racks. Left behind are helmets and gas masks and cleaning kits—things that can't shoot.

For four days, rebels newly armed with anti-aircraft guns and Kalashnikovs battled forces loyal to Col. Gadhafi and commanded by one of his sons. After days of firefights, feints and an ambush on unarmed local sheiks, the regime forces surrendered their hold on the vital local airport Tuesday morning—placing nearly all of eastern Libya outside Col. Gadhafi's control.

The events in Baida, following the airport siege, may provide a preview of the rough justice that could follow any regime dissolution.

On Wednesday, several of the 300 to 350 pro-Gadhafi fighters captured in the airport siege—the many soldiers among them that locals say are mercenaries hired from other African countries—will face a popular trial.

"We expect they will be executed," said one of the residents, Fadhil al-Hadouthi, an unemployed 38-year-old who helped coordinate logistics and medical relief for the pro-democracy rebels who battled Mr. Gadhafi's forces.

The days-long fight for Baida, which began in the first days of anti-Gadhafi protests last week, was described by several witnesses.

Police, they say, initially clashed with protestors using tear gas and other non-lethal methods. But when protests swelled, Col. Gadhafi's government ordered in reinforcements from the Khamis Brigade, commanded by Mr. Gadhafi's son Khamis.

The newly deployed brigade was elite and famously loyal to the regime. The professional soldiers opened fire expertly with live ammunition as soon as they deployed, witnesses said. "They fired at any unarmed civilians they could find," said Mohammad Abduh, an Egyptian who was working in Baida as a painter.

That spurred local police to turn on the soldiers. The government forces retreated to the airport outside of town. Townsmen followed and laid siege to the airport.

The pro-Gadhafi forces tried to escape in jeeps, residents said, but got lost in the side roads. They came under attack and returned to the airport.

On Sunday, the government sought to provide reinforcements to the besieged pro-Gadhafi forces, with helicopters arriving with supplies and fresh troops. The ad hoc local forces—who, like citizens across eastern Libya, were becoming heavily armed as entire army units joined forces with locals and police stations were abandoned—fought them off.

Witnesses say locals countered the government helicopters with anti-aircraft machine guns and Kalashnikovs. The helicopters dropped a few boxes of food before turning away, said Mr. al-Hadouthi, the 38-year-old unemployed local who was there.

On Monday, the pro-Gadhafi troops offered to make a deal, said residents involved in the fighting. They had taken about 30 Baida residents prisoner, and offered to free them in exchange for being let go from the airport, residents said.

The locals selected four sheikhs to go to handle the negotiation. The sheikhs arrived, accompanied by about 35 pro-democracy rebels, all of whom left their weapons outside as part of the deal, according to Mr. al-Hadouthi, who was present.

The negotiations soured when the sheikhs demanded the pro-Gadhafi forces surrender their weapons and captives in exchange for their freedom, Mr. al-Hadouthi said. "It was a trap, an ambush," he said.

The pro-Gadhafi gunmen opened fire. One of the sheikhs fell dead, along with 10 other people. The siege intensified.

At 9 a.m. Tuesday morning, the pro-Gadhafi forces said they were surrendering for good.

Locals said they identified several among them as foreign because of their features and accents; the accounts these fighters gave under interrogation, placed them as from Chad, Niger and other sub-Saharan African countries.

The Libyan soldiers will be handed over to their tribal leaders, Baida rebel leaders said. The foreign fighters will face a jury of local notables on Wednesday.

The fate of others may have already been determined, grimly. Earlier Tuesday in Sidi Burana, an Egyptian town on the border with Libya, Egyptian workers fleeing back home showed thumb-drive and cell-phone videos with pictures of what they said were captured pro-government mercenaries being viciously beaten in Baida. One video showed a dark skinned man, who the Egyptian workers said was a mercenary from Chad, being beaten to death. Another video showed what they said were mutilated mercenary corpses.

—Charles Levinson in Tobruq, Libya, Joe Lauria in Beirut and the Associated Press contributed to this article.

Write to Charles Levinson at charles.levinson@wsj.com

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El petroleo sigue subiendo aunque la oferta no esta amenazada y OPEC tiene exceso de produccion o reservas para aumentar su cuota en caso sea necesario.

Oil up 95.82

Libor igual 0.31%

Europa a la baja, el Asia cerro mixta.

Los futures del Dow Jones 33 puntosal alza.

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Yields up 3.48%

Au up 1,404.70, Ag up 33.25

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SPANISHFEBRUARY 23, 2011, 12:02 A.M. ET
¿Pasó EE.UU. de la recesión a la fiesta?
Impulsada por la Fed, la economía vuelve a niveles pre-crisis; el miedo al fin
Por Mark Gongloff

Uno por uno, los indicadores económicos y bursátiles han vuelto a niveles que imperaban antes del colapso de Lehman Brothers en 2008, recuperándose convincentemente de algunos de los peores efectos de la crisis financiera.

La bosa ha duplicado su valor desde el mínimo que registró durante la recesión. El crecimiento económico y los paquetes de remuneración en Wall Street vuelven a estar en niveles récord. La brecha de rendimiento entre los bonos basura y los del Tesoro de Estados Unidos es la más pequeña desde 2007. Mientras, las fusiones y adquisiciones están al rojo vivo, como lo demuestra la reciente propuesta de unión entre NYSE Euronext y Deutsche Börse AG. La fascinación por las compañías tecnológicas está adquiriendo un cariz frenético: Facebook Inc. fue recientemente valorada en US$50.000 millones.

El regreso de estos y otros indicadores a niveles pre-crisis sugiere que la economía, las empresas y los mercados financieros se han fortalecido y están listos para andar por su cuenta.

Y si bien siguen apostando fuerte en el mercado, muchos inversionistas tratan de prepararse para lo que pasará a continuación. La recuperación de la economía y los mercados ha sido impulsada en gran parte por una agresiva intervención del gobierno. Como resultado, los inversionistas están preocupados por el costo final de acabar con la crisis, incluyendo qué pasará cuando el respaldo del gobierno empiece a menguar en los próximos meses.

"La recuperación es auténtica; hay razones muy reales que explican por qué hay crecimiento", dice Steven Romick, gestor del fondo FPA Crescent de First Pacific Advisors, una firma de gestión de capital de Los Ángeles. "Pero las ramificaciones de la forma en que se logró ese crecimiento también serán muy reales", advirtió.


Gran parte del progreso de la economía y los mercados financieros es cortesía de los paquetes de estímulo del gobierno, especialmente los dos programas de relajamiento cuantitativo de la Reserva Federal. El segundo de ellos, un plan de US$600.000 millones para comprar bonos soberanos de EE.UU., caduca en junio.

"Todo el mundo entiende que un día se acabará la fiesta, y todos creen que pueden ser los primeros en salir", señala Howard Simons, un estratega de Bianco Research, en Chicago. "El día en que la Fed diga 'bien, se acabó, todos a casa', será un mal día".

Entre los problemas que sugieren que la crisis no es totalmente cosa del pasado se destacan un alto desempleo, un mercado inmobiliario maltrecho y las frágiles finanzas del gobierno.

El presidente Barack Obama dijo la semana pasada que se pronostica un déficit fiscal para 2011 de US$1,65 billones (millones de millones), o casi 11% del Producto Interno Bruto, el mayor desde la Segunda Guerra mundial. La deuda soberana ha escalado a 61% del PIB, la más alta desde 1952.

Algunos temen que la Fed podría demorarse demasiado en tomar medidas, dejando que la inflación se desboque. Después de dos rondas de apoyo excepcional a la economía, su balance suma unos US$2,5 billones. Ese efectivo podría alimentar un brote inflacionario. "La actividad real se está recuperando y la disposición de los inversionistas a asumir riesgos parece haber aumentado", indica Raghuram Rajan, profesor de finanzas en la Escuela de Negocios Booth de la Universidad de Chicago. "¿Quiere decir eso que hemos vuelto a la normalidad? ¿Que todo marcha a las mil maravillas? La respuesta es que no", aseveró.

Mientras tanto, muchos de los síntomas de la crisis parecen haberse aliviado.

El PIB de EE.UU. ha vuelto a las cifras previas a la recesión y batió una nueva marca en el cuarto trimestre de 2010. La actividad manufacturera está en su nivel máximo desde 2004, según encuestas del Instituto de Gestión de Suministros y la Fed de Filadelfia.

El índice Standard & Poor's 500 terminó la semana pasada en 1.343,01 puntos, más del doble que el mínimo registrado durante el momento más negro de la crisis y el cierre más alto desde junio de 2008. El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones ha escalado hasta 12.391 puntos, un récord desde 2008. El martes, sin embargo, el índice retrocedió 1,44% para quedar en 12.212,79 unidades.

Incluso el golpeado mercado de empaquetar y vender deuda respaldada por activos está resucitando, con miles de millones de dólares en nuevos valores respaldados por hipotecas comerciales, préstamos para autos y otras deudas comerciadas en Wall Street.

Las arcas de Wall Street están más llenas que nunca. Los bancos registraron un año récord en remuneraciones en 2010.

BlackRock Inc., el mayor gestor de capital, vio cómo su ganancia neta se duplicó en el cuarto trimestre de 2010 en comparación al mismo lapso del año anterior.

"Por ahora, la crisis ha terminado y no creo que vuelva en el próximo año o dos", dijo Mary Chandler, una investigadora médica e inversionista particular de 54 años. "Pero volverá. Habrá otro 2008", pronostica.

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Futures cu down 4.3205

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Las ganancias de Lowe's suben 39%

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Nasdaq OMX Group, operadora bursátil de EE.UU., estudia hacer una oferta conjunta por NYSE Euronext con posibles socias que incluyen CME Group y Intercontinental-Exchange, según fuentes al tanto. La empresa evalúa si puede competir con Deutsche Börse, que anunció hace poco un acuerdo de US$10.000 millones para fusionarse con NYSE.

H-P registró un salto interanual de 16%, a US$2.610 millones, en su ganancia en el trimestre cerrado el 31 de enero gracias a una fuerte demanda de sus clientes empresariales. No obstante, las ventas en dos de sus mayores divisiones, computadoras personales y servicios tecnológicos, cayero.

Amazon, gigante del comercio electrónico, agregó un servicio gratuito de streaming de películas y series de TV a su membresía para envíos rápidos de productos por correo, que cuesta US$79 por año. La medida intensifica la competencia con Netflix, una pionera del alquiler de DVD por correo en EE.UU. que ha ampliado su oferta de videos que pueden ser vistos a través de Internet.

Juniper Networks lanzaría hoy un sistema de redes llamado QFabric, con el que el fabricante estadounidense eleva su competencia con su rival de más peso Cisco. El primer componente, un 'nodo' que conecta sistemas de servidores y almacenamiento a una red de centros de datos, se llama QFX3500 y costará US$34.000.

BP, petrolera británica, confirmó que pondrá a la venta activos de crudo y gas en el Reino Unido como parte de un programa para cubrir los costos derivados de su derrame en el Golfo de México. Los activos en el Mar del Norte podrían valer US$1.000 millones.

Irak quiere ofrecer el yacimiento petrolífero Nasiriya a empresas internacionales en un paquete que exigiría que el ganador de la licitación construya una refinería, señaló un funcionario. El desarrollo del campo, que contiene unos 4.400 millones de barriles, ha estado paralizado por años.

Cisco, empresa de equipos de redes de EE.UU., ascendió a Gary Moore al cargo de director de operaciones para que ayude al presidente ejecutivo, John Chambers, a dirigir la empresa.

Santander, grupo bancario español, acordó vender sus operaciones de seguros en América Latina a Zurich Financial Services, por unos US$2.090 millones. El acuerdo amplía la presencia de la aseguradora suiza en Brasil, México, Chile, Argentina y Uruguay.

Brasil dijo que no decidirá "en el corto plazo" a quién le comprará 36 aviones tipo caza, en una licitación disputada entre Boeing, de EE.UU.; Dassault, de Francia, y Saab de Suecia.

InterContinental, grupo británico de hoteles, anunció un acuerdo de franquicia con la colombiana Alianza Fiduciaria para un Holiday Inn en Bogotá, cerca del aeropuerto El Dorado. Es el tercer contrato del grupo en Colombia en seis meses.

Femsa, embotelladora mexicana de Coca-Cola y la mayor de América Latina, reportó un alza de 7% en su ganancia del cuarto trimestre frente a 2009, a US$249 millones. Se benefició de un aumento en las ventas en el Mercosur y México.

México, que abastece sus arcas con las exportaciones de petróleo, informó que sus reservas internacionales llegaron a un saldo histórico de US$119.500 millones.

Chilectra, eléctrica chilena propiedad de Enersis, redujo en 10% el voltaje en la mitad de los vecindarios de la región metropolitana de Santiago donde opera. Es parte de un plan del gobierno para evitar cortes eléctricos. Enersis es controlada por la española Endesa.

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Hoy es la junta de accionistas de AAPL.

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+29

Oil up 95.85

Euro up 1.3727

El Euro subiendo por que se espera que el ECB suba los intereses.

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Los inversionistas estaran presionando al directorio de AAPL acerca del plan que de claridad acerca de quien seria el sucesor de S. Jobs, en caso faltara.

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Oil up 96.10

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+28

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AKS +2.39%

SLW +2.26%

APC +1.99%

PAAS +1.89%

AAPL +0.68%

BP +1%

ERX +1.87%

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EDC +1.44%

FAS +0.70%

DRN -0.02%

RIG +1.27%

MBI +1.81%

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Oil up 96.49

Vertex +16.90%

NFLX fue downgraded, sus acciones a la baja.

Gadhafi ha perdido la tercera parte del control del pais.

Los extranjeros abandonan Libia de manera masiva.

La produccion de Libia podria estar bajando entre 300,000 y 400,000 barriles per dia.

Y el petroleo sigue subiendo.

Ice Brent up 108.65

+19