Miercoles 06/04/11 Posibilidad de cierre del gobierno US

[admin]

De cerrarse el gobierno Americano el Viernes los trabajadores publicos no recibiran pago. Todos los uniformados tienen obligatoriamente que trabajar y despues se les paga.

+21.23

[Victor VE]

Si pues, es raro, pero asi me han dicho. Ya le pasé la info.

[admin]

Malas noticias para el Peru:
Debido al factor Humala, el costo de asegurar la deuda Peruana se ha disparado en comparacion con nuestro vecino Colombia por la preocupacion de que el renegado coronel Humala podria ganar las elecciones, de ser asi Humala, se teme, aumentar el control del gobierno sobre la economia.

Los credit defaults swaps de cinco anios subieron 35 puntos basicos desde la encuesta del 20 de Marzo que mostro que Humala ganaba popularidad, a 154 ayer o 49 mas que su similar de Colombia. La diferenica era 1 punto basico el 16 de Marzo, el dia que S&P le subio el rating a Colombia a BBB el mismo rating de Peru.

El sol ha bajado 1.4% desde el 20 de Marzo y esta entre las peores monedas de los paises emergentes.

Peru Ex-Rebel Humala Driving Up Bond-Default Risk Before Presidential Vote
By Andrea Jaramillo and John Quigley - Apr 6, 2011 10:19 AM ET
Peruvian presidential candidate for the Peru Wins Nationalist Party, Ollanta Humala. Photographer: Geraldo Caso/AFP/Getty Images
The cost of insuring Peru’s debt against default is jumping to a five-year high relative to neighboring Colombia on concern former renegade army colonel Ollanta Humala will win the presidential vote and expand government control of the economy.

Peruvian five-year credit-default swaps rose 35 basis points since polls released March 20 showed Humala gaining popularity, to 154 yesterday, or 49 more than similar contracts on Colombia, according to CMA. The gap was 1 basis point on March 16, the day Standard & Poor’s raised Colombia’s credit rating to the same BBB- level as Peru, citing President Juan Manuel Santos’s policies that cut crime and lured investment.

Peru and Colombia have benefitted from increased foreign investment in mining and energy in the past decade as they reclaimed areas that were under guerrilla control, resulting in the fastest economic growth for both countries in 20 years. Humala’s rise in polls before this weekend’s first-round vote pushed up Peru’s borrowing costs and sent the sol to the biggest drop among emerging-market currencies since March 20.

“You have a clear direction of policy mix in Colombia going forward, while in Peru you don’t have that,” said Bret Rosen, a Latin America debt strategist with Standard Chartered Bank in New York. “The fear is that Peru will face an important change in the investment climate.”

Gain in Polls
Humala, 48, had 26 percent support in a poll published April 3 by Lima-based researcher Ipsos Apoyo, up from 21 percent a week earlier, putting him in first place among candidates vying to succeed President Alan Garcia for a five-year term. Three candidates were in a virtual tie for second place, according to the Ipsos Apoyo poll.

Humala, chief of Peru’s Nationalist Party and an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, was in fourth place in polls a month ago. He also consolidated his lead in polls published in the past week by researchers CPI and Datum Internacional.

While Humala has vowed to renegotiate mining and natural gas contracts with foreign investors as he seeks to make South America’s sixth-largest economy less dependent on outside investment and exports, Colombia’s Santos, 59, has pledged to avoid “changing the rules of the game” for foreign investors, saying in an interview March 31 that he wouldn’t raise mining or oil taxes.

“I want foreign investors to see Colombia as a serious country,” he said.

Colombia lured $6.76 billion of foreign direct investment in 2010 -- of which 73 percent went into oil and mining -- after $7.14 billion in 2009 and a record $10.6 billion in 2008, according to the central bank.

Economic Growth
Peru is set to receive $50 billion of mining, energy and infrastructure investments during the next five years, according to the Finance Ministry. Foreign direct investment was $7.32 billion last year and may rise to $8.17 billion in 2011, the central bank estimates.

During the past 10 years, Colombia recorded average economic growth of 4.1 percent, compared with 5.7 percent in Peru.

The extra cost to insure Peru’s debt instead of Colombia’s is at its highest since May 2006. The yield on Peru’s 6.55 percent dollar bonds due March 2037 rose 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, to 6 percent since March 20, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. The yield on Colombia’s 7.375 percent dollar bonds due in September 2037 has increased 10 basis points over the same period to 5.98 percent.

Worst Performer
Peru’s currency, the sol, has declined 1.4 percent since March 20, the worst performance among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Lima General Index has fallen 6.2 percent in the past month, the fourth worst performance among 90 primary indexes tracked by Bloomberg.

“While everyone had expected this to be a non-event election, we were proven wrong,” said Marjorie Hernandez, a currency strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in New York. “The market was not positioned that way. Everyone was long Peru everything.”

Keiko Fujimori, a Peruvian congresswoman and daughter of the former president, had 18 percent support in the Ipsos Apoyo poll. Former President Alejandro Toledo had 17 percent, and former Finance Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski had 16 percent. The survey of 2,000 people was taken from March 26 to April 1 and had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

A runoff between the two leading candidates will be held on June 5 if no one wins more than 50 percent in the first round of balloting on April 10.

Peaceful Revolt
Peru’s Congress approved an amnesty for Humala in 2000 after he seized control of a mining town and led a peaceful revolt to protest the corruption that beset the government of then-President Alberto Fujimori, who later fled into exile.

Cynthya Montes, a spokeswoman for the Nationalist Party, didn’t respond to an e-mailed request for comment.

Even as Humala’s popularity climbs before the first-round of elections, Rosen, Hernandez and Eduardo Suarez, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, all predict Humala will lose in a second-round ballot as voters who dislike Humala will rally around his opponent.

Suarez said in a report March 29 that Humala’s chance of becoming president is about 20 percent, and that recent declines in asset prices are overdone.

“The current sell-off should be seen as a buying opportunity, but timing is key,” he wrote.

Venezuelan Model
Humala, who said during his campaign for president in 2006 that foreign companies were “looting” the country’s resources, said in a televised debate this week that he supports an “open and market economy” and backs investment that creates jobs. He also distanced himself from Chavez, who has nationalized most of the cement industry, imposed price controls and devalued the currency. Humala said March 31 that “the Venezuelan model of government isn’t applicable in Peru.”

A Humala presidency would hurt investors, Hernandez said.

“If Humala comes to power we definitely will see a big shift in policies,” Hernandez said. “I don’t think anyone trusts that this change in strategy ahead of the campaign is really an earnest change.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Andrea Jaramillo in Bogota at ajaramillo1@bloomberg.net; John Quigley in Lima at jquigley8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at

[admin]

Victor diles que lean el foro.

[admin]

Energia se desinflo, toma de ganancias.

HAL -2.98%

ERX -3.22%

[admin]

Yields up 3.54%

+24.86

[Victor VE]

[admin]

[El_Diez]

Y en el plan de gobierno de Humala dice que va a revisar todos los TLC que ha firmado el Perú. …… que hacemos para desaparecer a este soldado.
Promete una pensión gratuita para las personas mayores de 65 , ….. si gana Humala para que voy a seguir pagando a la AFP si Humala te asegura una pensión gratuita cuando cumplas 65 años…… .. populisto e ignorancia de este tipejo.
Construirá guarderías para los niños donde se les dará alimentación, pañales, ropa, etc,…… . …. este cachaco con esa medida va a alentar que los jóvenes tengan todos los hijos que quieran si total quien va a correr con los gastos será el estado.

[admin]

Eso de la pension olvidada se lo he escuchado a varios candidatos no solo a Humala.

Preocupante que los mineros quieran votar por Humala.

[admin]

+29.33

[admin]

Parece que es un hecho lo del cierre del gobierno:

El gobierno se prepara para un cierre.


Government Prepares for Shutdown

By DAMIAN PALETTA And CAROL E. LEE
WASHINGTON—The federal government has begun advanced preparations for a possible shutdown as Democrats and Republicans continue negotiating on Capitol Hill over a spending package to fund the government after midnight Friday.

Roughly 800,000 federal employees would be furloughed, out of a total federal non-military work force of about 2 million, and services across the executive branch would stall at the end of Friday if Congress and the White House don't strike a deal soon, a senior administration official said.

Even many government officials who are designated essential and remain working, such as the military, would stop receiving pay during a shutdown. Some could recoup back pay once a deal is set, but others might not unless it is explicitly authorized by Congress.

"We are cognizant that it's Wednesday and April 8 is Friday, so we're continuing to take the appropriate steps to ensure that all federal agencies are prepared with appropriate contingency plans should appropriations lapse," the official said on a conference call with reporters.

View Full Image

Associated Press

Students from a school near Rochester, N.Y., take a guided tour of the Capitol Rotunda in Washington on Wednesday. Work is intensifying in Congress to reach a deal on legislation to finance the government through the end of September and avoid a government shutdown that would close the Capitol to tourists.
.The National Institutes of Health's clinical center would not admit any new patients or initiate any new clinical trials during a shutdown, although clinical trials already under way would continue. Medicare will continue to be funded, unless a shutdown continued for months, officials said, and Social Security beneficiaries will continue to get their benefits.

The Internal Revenue Service would stop conducting tax audits and processing paper-filed tax refunds, roughly 30% of filings, although electronic filings would continue. And the Small Business Administration would not process applications for business loan guarantees and direct loans to small businesses would stop.

"That could have or would have a significant impact on our economic momentum," the administration official said.

National parks would also be closed. And most government websites would not continue operating.

Government services that will continue include those with funding sources other than annual appropriations, such as the Federal Reserve, and those that are funded permanently or for more than one year, such as the Veterans Administration, officials said. Services necessary for national security and safety, including military and law enforcement, would continue operating.

The Environmental Protection Agency will stop issuing permits and cease the review of environmental impact statements, although all essential services will continue.

Late Tuesday, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management posted a lengthy memo on its website detailing the impact of a shutdown on federal employees.

Many non-security officials would be required to stay home and prohibited from doing any work. They would only be compensated for the time the government was shut down if Congress decides to pay them.

Many federal officials would also be barred from taking other jobs because they would still be government employees subject to conflict-of-interest rules, but their health care and life insurance benefits would stay active for one year.

A shutdown would likely have a mixed impact on the public. Key government functions such as military operations and the U.S. Postal Service would continue. But a massive furlough of federal employees could affect scores of other functions, making it harder for people to apply for new Social Security benefits and potentially freezing investigations by federal regulators.

A key question is which federal employees would be considered "excepted" from a shutdown and permitted to work. The OPM memo said this judgment would be made by each federal agency.

The OPM said "excepted" employees are those "(1) performing emergency work involving the safety of human life or the protection of property, (2) performing minimal activities as necessary to execute an orderly suspension of agency operations related to non-excepted activities, or (3) performing certain other types of excepted work."

On Wednesday, Dan Tangherlini, assistant secretary for management at the Treasury Department, sent a memo to employees telling them they would be notified no later than Friday whether they are considered "excepted" or not. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday told Congress a shutdown would have a "very material" impact on his agency and could damage the country's economic recovery.

"The President, the Secretary and I know that the uncertainty of the current situation puts federal employees in a difficult position, and are very much aware that a shutdown would impose hardships on many employees as well as the groups and individuals our agency serves," Mr. Tangherlini wrote.

There is still time for lawmakers to craft a deal to avert a shutdown, but time is running short. President Barack Obama hosted a meeting at the White House Tuesday with congressional leaders, but no deal was reached and Democrats and Republicans immediately began pointing fingers as to which side would be at fault if a shutdown occurred. Still, the two sides continued negotiating late Tuesday in an attempt to broker a compromise.

The White House Office of Management and Budget has been in frequent contact with federal agencies helping them plan for an "orderly" shutdown in case a deal on Capitol Hill doesn't materialize soon.

Write to Damian Paletta at damian.paletta@wsj.com

[admin]

Goldman dijo que el costo de la deuda de Portugal es insostenible.

Yields up 3.55%

[admin]

+31.03

[admin]

+36.14