por admin » Jue Abr 07, 2011 8:49 pm
De verdad quien quiere que se cierre el gobierno
Obama quiere que se cierre, pero la estrategia de los republicanos no es clara.
Para la gente que viene diciendo que no quiere que se cierre el gobierno, la realidad es que los dos partidos se comportan como si no pudieran esperar a que se cierre. Como lo que esta en juego no es mucho, nosotros podemos asumir que este show es solo para mostrar quienes son mas fuertes: los democratas o los republicanos.
A estas alturas esta muy claro que Obama quiere que se cierre el gobierno por que piensa que el se beneficiara con esta maniobra. Obama dijo que vetara la propuesta republicana para extender la financiacion del gobierno por una semana mas, lo cual permitiria que el gobierno no cierre por una semana mas, Obama ha rechazado la propuesta que proporcionaria los fondos para pagarles a los militares para el resto del anio, recortar otros $12 billones de gasto domestico y dar mas tiempo para negociar.
Obama dijo que no, a pesar que no especifico un desacuerdo especifico con la propuesta. Es decir que a menos que se llegue a un acuerdo hoy dia, 800,000 trabajadores del gobierno (puestos no esenciales) no recibiran pago.
Es importante recordar que esta pelea es sobre los ultimos 6 meses del anio fiscal 2011. Los democratas deberian haber pasado su presupuesto el anio pasado pero no quisieron hacerlo. Los republicanos en la Casa de Representantes procedieron a recortar $61 billones despues de dos anios de gastos records por parte de Obama, ahora Obama dice que solo aceptara $33 billones y que la mayoria de ellos deben venir de programas no especificos y balances no obligatorios que seguramente no se gastaran de todas maneras. Ahora los republicanos quieren recortar $40 billones y los recortes son reales.
Who Really Wants a Shutdown?
President Obama does, but the GOP's strategy is a lot less clear.
For people who keep saying they don't want a government shutdown, Washington's warring parties are sure acting like they can't wait for it to happen. Since the policy stakes of this particular drama are so low, we can only assume this showdown is about Democrats and Republicans proving their relative political manhood.
It's clear enough by now that President Obama wants a shutdown and thinks he'll benefit politically from it. The White House announced yesterday that Mr. Obama will veto the House Republican bill for a one-week temporary budget extension that would have kept federal agencies operating. That bill would have funded the military for the rest of the year, cut another $12 billion in domestic spending, and allowed more time to negotiate. The funding for the rest of this year has been a special priority of the Pentagon, which otherwise must move money around to keep funding the war effort.
Mr. Obama still said no, even though the official White House statement of policy on the bill listed no specific policy objections. So unless a deal is reached today, as of midnight tonight 800,000 government workers will be furloughed and nonessential federal operations will shut down.
Keep in mind this fight is only over funding for the last six months of fiscal 2011. Democrats were supposed to pass this budget last year but failed to do so. House Republicans proceeded to cut $61 billion after two years of record spending, but Mr. Obama says he'll accept only $33 billion and most of that must come not from specific programs but from "unobligated balances" that might not be spent anyway. Republicans now want $40 billion and cuts that are real.
.Inviting a shutdown has looked to be the White House strategy since Mr. Obama unveiled his own budget in February that increased spending and dodged any serious budget reform. Our guess is that Mr. Obama's political advisers have concluded that the lesson from Bill Clinton's 1995 shutdown is that presidents win such showdowns. If they didn't believe this, we doubt they'd risk a shutdown over $7 billion and a few policy differences like funding for Planned Parenthood.
If Mr. Obama really wanted to reduce any harm from a shutdown, he also has the ability to do so. The Justice Departments of two previous Democratic Presidents, Jimmy Carter and Mr. Clinton, issued opinions with expansive views of what the executive branch could spend money on even during a shutdown. Social Security checks could still be issued, the troops could still be funded, and agencies that rely on user fees could also stay open, for example.
Yet this White House is pitching this shutdown as if it will do untold damage to the country. This fits a political strategy designed to blame Republicans as reckless radicals.
That said, we're not sure what the GOP strategy is at this point, if its leaders even have one. Even $33 billion in genuine cuts would reduce the budget baseline and leverage much greater cuts in future years. Republicans run the risk of going to the mattresses in pursuit of relatively small additional gains that they may not get in any case.
We understand that some in the tea party and certain cable TV hosts want a government shutdown for their own reasons. But these are the same cable pundits who insist that even though $61 billion in cuts are trivial, Republicans should still shut down the government to get them. Self-contradiction is not a sound political strategy.
Republicans also say that if they back down now they'll have no credibility for the bigger fights to come over the debt limit and Congressman Paul Ryan's 2012 limit. We think the opposite is more likely. Republicans will have more credibility over fights that really matter if they show they're willing to compromise now. And if Republicans back down next week after a shutdown begins, as they did in 1995, they will look even worse to their own supporters and have squandered even more political capital for very little return.
We're not opposed to a shutdown showdown, but the policy stakes ought to be worth the political investment. The reforms in Mr. Ryan's just-released 2012 budget are worth such a fight, as are serious and enforceable spending restrictions in return for a debt limit increase. Republicans need to prepare voters for these major policy choices. A government shutdown over $10 billion or so in a $3.5 trillion budget will be hard for voters to understand.
We know that Mr. Obama's strategy is to appear to be reasonable while portraying Republicans as fiscal lunatics. The split-the-difference politics of cutting $33 billion or $40 billion gives him a chance to pull this off. As for Republicans, if the government does shut down, they'd better stick together until they have something to show for it.