Martes 19/04/11 inicios de casas

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Ventas de tiendas
Inicios de casas
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Redbook
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4-Week Bill Auction
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[admin]

Se espera que los inicios de casas suban 9.6%

Maniana reportan:

Tomorrow’s Tape: JNJ, IBM, Goldman and Intel Earnings

By Matt Phillips

Economics:

8:30 a.m. — March housing starts are expected to arrive at 525,000,up 9.6%. Housing starts in February tumbled 22.5% — the sharpest decline in 27 years — to an annual pace of 479,000, the lowest since April 2009
Earnings: Earnings season is really rolling now. Among the notable reports due Tuesday are …

Peabody Energy
Johnson & Johnson
Regions Financial
State Street Corp.
Yahoo! Inc.
Northern Trust
Harley-Davidson
IBM
Intel
CSX
Bank of New York Mellon
Goldman Sachs

[admin]

Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 107.24 0.12 107.12
Gold 1494.6 1.7 1492.9
DJ Industrials 12123 -17 12140
S&P 500 1297.30 -3.80 1301.10

9:12 p.m. EDT 04/18/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 82.51 82.71
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4240 1.4233
† Late Monday in New York.

[admin]

Euro up 1.4235

Korea -0.34%. el Nikkei -1.22%, Australia 0.98%.

Los futures del Dow Jones 17 puntos a la baja.

[admin]

Copper April 18,20:59
Bid/Ask 4.2121 - 4.2139
Change +0.0220 +0.53%
Low/High 4.1901 - 4.2141
Charts

Nickel April 18,20:59
Bid/Ask 11.7576 - 11.7998
Change +0.0894 +0.77%
Low/High 11.6682 - 11.7998
Charts

Aluminum April 18,20:50
Bid/Ask 1.1883 - 1.1911
Change +0.0010 +0.09%
Low/High 1.1872 - 1.1911
Charts

Zinc April 18,20:59
Bid/Ask 1.0590 - 1.0606
Change +0.0052 +0.49%
Low/High 1.0470 - 1.0623
Charts

Lead April 18,20:58
Bid/Ask 1.2038 - 1.2056
Change +0.0005 +0.04%
Low/High 1.1843 - 1.2201

[admin]

Au down
SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 20 hrs.
Apr 18, 2011 21:15 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1492.90 - 1493.90
Low/High 1476.50 - 1499.10
Change -3.00 -0.20%
30daychg +73.20 +5.16%
1yearchg +356.10 +31.32%
Charts

[admin]

El banco central de China dice que deben reducir sus reservas internacionales.

Los precios de las casas en China subieron 4.9% en Marzo, habian aumentado 6.8% en Febrero debido a las medidas adoptadas por el gobierno.

[admin]

Las corporaciones americanas estan contratando mano de obra en el extranjero, no en US.

Eso es por culpa de Obama y los democratas.

El gobierno vendera una gran parte de su participacion en GM este verano a pesar de que la accion no ha tenido el rendimiento esperado.

[admin]

Como sera de malo el seguro de salud de Obama que Obama les esta ofreciendo $240 millones por empezar el plan antes y los estados con todo lo quebrados que estan y con toda la necesidad de fondos que tienen estan diciendo que no.

Oklahoma y New Hampshire dijeron que no.

-------------------------------
ObamaCare Opt Out
States turn down money for the law's new insurance exchanges

It's not often that states turn their back on money from Washington, but at least two states may say no thanks to federal grants to implement the new federal health-care law.

In February the federal Department of Health and Human Services selected seven states to get $240 million in demonstration grants this year to kick start the health-care plan. But Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin announced last week that the Sooner State will decline $54.6 million from the feds to establish new insurance exchanges.

And as early as this week the New Hampshire state house is expected to pass a bill rejecting $666,000 the feds bequeathed to that state to start up exchanges. Two other grant recipients—Kansas and Wisconsin—may also turn down the funds as well as request Medicaid waivers to design their own health-care law for low-income residents.

Oklahoma faces a $500 million budget shortfall and at first accepted the federal health dollars. But Oklahoma citizens approved a ballot initiative last year to block implementation of the new law and its nearly 2,000 pages of rules and mandates. Oklahoma is also among the nearly 30 states that have filed a lawsuit challenging the law's constitutionality. State officials fear that taking even one dollar of the money would run the risk of the federal government running health care in Oklahoma.

So now the Sooners are devising their own insurance plan to comply with the ObamaCare mandate that every state create an insurance exchange by 2013. The Oklahoma plan is to create an insurance "network" that would increase portability of private employer health plans, increase the range of choices of insurance coverage (including high deductible health-savings account plans), allow workers and small employers to use pre-tax dollars for health coverage, and subsidize the uninsured to purchase an insurance plan. "We think that by relying on markets, we can do this at a much lower cost to the state than the ObamaCare plan," Governor Fallin says.

Republicans who control both houses in the New Hampshire legislature have reached the same conclusion. House Speaker William O'Brien wants to return the federal money to lower the federal deficit. That's popular in the first Presidential primary state, where polls are finding that voters disapprove of the law by nearly a two to one margin.

Democratic Governor John Lynch who may veto the bill, but the political trend shows that the President's health reform is not getting any more popular with age, despite Democratic and media predictions. The states are concluding that the more they get to know about ObamaCare, the less they think they can afford it.

[admin]

El downgrade del duscurso de Obama

El outlook negativo de la estrategia del presupuesto de Obama

Por que S&P rebajo a negativa la deuda a largo plazo de US como una bomba a su triple A? S&P no revelo numeros nuevos a un mercado que sufrio hoy dia shock y bajo 140 puntos, que hay de nuevo?

S&P dijo que no veia ninguna posibilidad de que Obama haga algo para reducir en forma signiticativa el deficit este anio o el proximo.

S&P dijo: nuestro outlook refleja en nuestro punto de vista que el riesgo se ha incrementado en el sentido que las negociaciones acerca de cuando y como se va a solucionar la deuda a mediano y largo plazo no se haran si no hasta despues de las elecciones del 2012. Es decir que la decision de S&P fue basado en un analisis politico de US.

La unica razon para que la agencia de rating haya de pronto y sorpresivamente dado el downgrade ha sido el discurso de Obama acerca de su plan de como reducir el deficit el Miercoles pasado. La politica fiscal de Obama ha sido veneno para las posibilidades de una posible negociacion.

La retorica antirepublicana de Obama y la universal conclusion de que este fue un discurso de una campania presidencia hace muy dificil que los republicanos crean que ellos podran negociar con el presidente de buena fe.

El discurso de Obama fue exageradamente politico, Obama calculo que el mejor momento para lanzar su campania de reeleccion fue cuando Pau Ryan revelo su plan de reduccion del presupuesto. Esta semana Obama esta llevando el duscurso por las ciudades donde tiene que hacer campania.

La diferencia del plan republicano con el de Obama no podrian ser mas diferentes por lo que las negociaciones no llevaran a ningun compromiso o acuerdo en los proximos dos anios.

S&P solo esta conectando los puntos despues de la campania de Obama contra los republicanos.

S&P tambien ha hecho un analisis de las condiciones fiscales, mas notablemente de la escala del problema del deficit antes y despues del 2008. Entre 2003 y 2008 el deficit fluctuo entre el 2% y 5% del PBI (GDP). Esto ya era mas alto que los otros paises que tienen triple A, subio a mas del 11% en el 2009 y todavia no se recupera. Esta es con toda seguridad una comparacion que ha Obama y su equipo le gustara esconder.

S&P tambien analizo el escenario del crecimiento de la economia, asumiendo que crezca a un ritmo del 3% al anio, pero cerca al 3% al anio, no revivira la recoleccion de impuestos que se necesita para disminuir la deuda, la cual esta camino a ser el 80% del PBI (GDP)

Notablemente S&P no dijo que subieron los impuestos para solucionar el deficit, generalmente lo hacen. Nosotros esperamos que esta neutralidad refleje el reconocimiento de que paises como Grecia, presionados a recortar gastos y aumentar impuestos, descienda en el espiral sin final de un menor crecimiento. Asi es como el outlook de una nacion realmente se convierte en negativo.

La politica fiscal de Obama desde el 2009 ha aumentado el balance del gobierno con la excusa de que eran medidas de emergencia. El resultados despues de dos anios es lo que ha asustado a S&P y a los americanos: esta historica recuperacion muy por debajo de lo normal, los deficits sin precedentes, el alto desempleo, la inflacion en los commodities y ahora la ansiedad acerca de que tan segura es la deuda de US.

El presupuesto de Ryan ha sido criticado como cruel y sin corazon, pero su proposito es disminuir la deuda sin hundir a la economia, y para hacerlo antes de lo que si fue cruel: el downgrade de Japon en Enero. La respuesta de Obama fue simplemente atacar a los republicanos.

Las agencias de ratings no son la ultima palabra acerca de la salud de la economia de US, pero este downgrade es una alerta, una llamada de atencion a Obama de que se de cuenta que los mercados financieros estan prestando atencion a lo que esta haciendo y parece que Obama ha decidido que lo mejor que puede hacer para empezar su campania de reeleccion es criticar y burlarse de los republicanos en lugar de buscar la solucion al problema fiscal del pais.


The Obama Speech Downgrade
S&P's 'negative' outlook on the President's budget strategy

Why did Standard & Poor's drop its "negative" long-term outlook bomb on America's AAA credit rating yesterday? S&P revealed no numbers not previously known to a "shocked" stock market, which dropped 140 points. So what's new?

Chief White House economist Austan Goolsbee declared that S&P had made a "political judgment," and we'd have to agree, though probably not for the same reasons. The bulk of S&P's analysis is taken up with repeatedly citing what it sees as next-to-no chance that Washington will do anything significant on deficit reduction this year or next.

"The outlook reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over when and how to address both the medium- and long-term challenges will persist until at least after the national elections in 2012," said the credit rating outfit. S&P's announcement is almost wholly a political analysis of the budget outlook.

There is only one reason the rating agency could suddenly have turned this dark on politics in Washington: President Obama's speech at George Washington University last Wednesday. Mr. Obama's "fiscal policy" speech may have sent progressive pundits cart-wheeling, but its political effect was to poison the prospect for budget negotiations.

The harshness of Mr. Obama's anti-Republican rhetoric and the universal conclusion that this was a Presidential campaign speech make it very difficult for GOP Congressional leaders to believe they can enter into a budget negotiation in which the White House will deal in good faith.

The hyper-politicized Obama White House calculated that the release of a GOP proposal by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan was the moment to unveil its re-election counter-attack. This week Mr. Obama is taking that speech on what looks like the campaign trail, first at a Virginia community college and then in front of the millionaires and billionaires at Facebook's headquarters in Silicon Valley.

Traders work at their posts on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.
.S&P, as did many others, said it saw the Obama and Ryan budget proposals "as the starting point of a process," but "That said, we see the path to agreement as challenging because the gap between the parties remains wide." And: "We believe there is a significant risk that Congressional negotiations could result in no agreement." And this stalemate will continue "over the next two years."

S&P is simply connecting the political dots after last week's un-Presidential tirade against the GOP.

S&P's analysis also discussed fiscal conditions, most notably the scale of the deficit problem before and after 2008: "[I]n 2003-2008, the U.S.'s general (total) government deficit fluctuated between 2% and 5% of GDP. Already larger than that of most 'AAA' rated sovereigns, it ballooned to more than 11% in 2009 and has yet to recover." This surely is one Bush comparison that the Obama team wishes to bury.

The S&P outlook also says its baseline scenario for the U.S. economy is "near 3% annual real growth." But "near" 3% growth will not revive tax revenue enough to shrink the growing U.S. debt burden, which is heading toward 80% of GDP.

Notably, there was no call in the S&P note for closing the deficit with tax increases, a staple of ratings-agency fiscal fixes. We hope this neutrality reflects some recognition of the way countries like Greece, pressed to cut spending while raising taxes, descend into an endless downward growth spiral. That's how a nation's outlook becomes truly "negative."

The Obama fiscal policy since 2009 has been to explode the U.S. balance sheet with ever-greater spending financed by monetary reflation—which the President in his speech euphemized as "emergency steps." The result after more than two years is what scares S&P and more than a few Americans: a historically subpar recovery, unprecedented deficits, persistently high unemployment, commodity inflation and now growing anxiety over U.S. creditworthiness.

The Ryan budget has been criticized as heartless and cruel. But its purpose is to address the rising U.S. debt problem without tanking the U.S. economy, and to do so before a truly heartless and cruel credit downgrade of the sort S&P gave Japan in January. Mr. Obama's response was simply to mock the GOP proposal.

The ratings agencies are hardly the last word on U.S. economic health. But the S&P outlook is a warning to the White House that financial markets have noticed that this President seems to have decided that his path to re-election lies in demonizing his opponents rather than seeing to the nation's fiscal well-being.

[admin]

Los futures del Dow Jones 29 puntos al alza. Esperando buenas ganancias de las companias que reportan hoy dia.

Las ganancias de US Bancorp subieron 56%

Texas Instruments reportdo debajo de lo esperado.

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note -1/32 0.681
10-Year Note -6/32 3.404
* at close

7:48 a.m. EDT 04/19/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 107.11 -0.58 107.69
Gold 1497.6 4.7 1492.9
DJ Industrials 12152 12 12140
S&P 500 1302.20 1.10 1301.10

7:59 a.m. EDT 04/19/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 82.61 82.71
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4306 1.4233
† Late Monday in New York.

[admin]

Au up
SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 8 hrs. 56 mins.
Apr 19, 2011 08:19 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1494.30 - 1495.70
Low/High 1486.90 - 1499.40
Change -1.60 -0.11%
30daychg +74.60 +5.25%
1yearchg +357.50 +31.45%

[admin]

Copper April 19,08:19
Bid/Ask 4.2203 - 4.2223
Change +0.0301 +0.72%
Low/High 4.1737 - 4.2352
Charts

Nickel April 19,08:19
Bid/Ask 11.6865 - 11.6951
Change +0.0183 +0.16%
Low/High 11.6074 - 11.8288
Charts

Aluminum April 19,08:18
Bid/Ask 1.1931 - 1.1942
Change +0.0059 +0.50%
Low/High 1.1817 - 1.1964
Charts

Zinc April 19,08:19
Bid/Ask 1.0504 - 1.0510
Change -0.0034 -0.32%
Low/High 1.0361 - 1.0668
Charts

Lead April 19,08:18
Bid/Ask 1.1897 - 1.1902
Change -0.0136 -1.13%
Low/High 1.1826 - 1.2201

[admin]

Las ganancias de Goldman Sachs bajaron 21% pero fueron mejores a las esperadas pro el mercado.

[admin]

Oil down 106.10

Au up 1,493, Ag up 43.18, cu up

Euro up 1.4293

+28

Las ganancias de J&J mejor a las esperadas.

Libo rigual 0.27%

Europa al alza, el Asia cerro en rojo.