por admin » Mar Abr 26, 2011 8:37 pm
Los pobres se haran mas pobres con Humala ya que el sol se devaluara.
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La banca peruana probablemente incrementaran sus tenencias de dolares lo cual devaluara al sol, se preparan para una posible victoria de Humala, dijo Barclays.
Peru’s Sol to Weaken on Humala Presidency Risk, Barclays Says
By John Quigley - Apr 26, 2011 3:32 PM ET
Peruvian banks will probably increase their dollar holdings, causing the sol to weaken, as they prepare for a possible presidential election win by former military rebel Ollanta Humala, Barclays Capital Inc. said.
Rising demand for dollars from Peruvian banks, which had a net dollar position of $821 million on April 19, could make it “very difficult” for the central bank to contain the sol’s decline, Barclays said in an e-mailed report to investors today. The sol, which has weakened 1.4 percent in the past month, will probably drop another 2.5 percent against the U.S. dollar to 2.90 if Humala wins a June 5 runoff, Barclays said.
The cost of insuring Peru’s debt against default may rise on concern Humala will increase government control of the economy and hinder growth if he’s elected, Barclays said. Peru’s currency and default swaps reflect a 45 percent to 50 percent chance of a Humala victory, the bank said.
“From a state of full denial a month ago, the market is now adjusting to the risk that Humala could get elected,” Barclays said.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima