Lunes 23/05/11 Semana del consumidor

[admin]

3:18 p.m. EDT 05/23/11Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   -0/32 0.523
10-Year Note   6/32 3.127
* at close
3:24 p.m. EDT 05/23/11Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 97.56 -2.54 97.70
Gold 1515.8 6.9 1515.4
DJ Industrials 12371 -95 12466
S&P 500 1317.50 -10.30 1327.80
3:34 p.m. EDT 05/23/11Currencies
  Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 81.94 81.68
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4048 1.4157
† Late Friday in New York.

[El_Diez]

El SP 500 ya tocó un soporte, yo creo que ahí debería de rebotar de lo contrario podría caer hasta el siguiente soporte. Es mi punto de vista.

SP 500 2.jpg (80.61 KiB) Visto 4332 veces

[jonibol]

Qué apática está la bolsa, ¿será que nos espera una tendencia lateral? Hay que considerar que los papeles peruanos ya incorporaron la corrección de metales y el daño Humala está casi curado.

[admin]

En mi opinion, en el Peru desde la semana pasada se perdio el efecto eleccion, ahora la bolsa esta respondiendo a lo que esta aconteciendo en el resto del mundo, la crisis en Europa esta generando nerviosismo generalizado. Cuando se ve bajar repetidamente al Dow Jones mas de 100 puntos, las cosas no andan bien.

El Dow Jones perdio 130.78 puntos para cerrar a 12,381.26 puntos.

Oil down 97.70, Au up 1,515.50 y subio tambien a precios record en euros.

[El_Diez]

Jonibol es debido al comportamiento de los índices de USA, si es que estos indices norteamericanos están realmente en una pauta correctiva (hasta el momento parecen que si ) luego del rebote que pueda darse se volverán a caer muyy debajo del mínimo de hoy.
Me estoy refiriendo a los índices de USA solamente

[admin]

Esta noticia tambien provoco el sell off de los commodities hoy dia.

El PMI de China en su nivel mas bajo en 10 meses.

Preocupacion por una desaceleracion mundial.

El PMI de China cayo a 51.1 de 51.8 en Abril.

China PMI Hits 10-Month Low .

By AARON BACK
BEIJING—A business survey showing China's manufacturing expanding at its slowest pace in 10 months in May drove Chinese stocks down sharply, and added to concerns over a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy after months of fighting inflation fears.

.The HSBC preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index for China, an early read on manufacturing activity in May that was released Monday, fell to 51.1 in May from 51.8 in April. A reading above 50 indicates continued growth, but the decline in the index shows that the pace of growth is slowing.

Other recent data, including industrial production growth in April and manufacturer surveys from the last few months, have showed activity to be slowing more than many analysts predicted, even as inflation remains stubbornly high.

"The market certainly is worried about growth slowing, that's been apparent, but it's also worried about inflation. Previously the worry was inflation alone. That's what's changed," said UBS Securities economist Wang Tao. She noted that even inflation concerns are ultimately about growth, as the real worry has been that the government's anti-inflation tightening measures—a series of interest rate increases, credit curbs, and other measures—could lead to a sharp downturn in economic activity.

Kathleen Madigan looks at the reasons behind the global slowdown in manufacturing.
.The lower preliminary reading in HSBC's survey on Monday "heralds further cooldown" in China "as both domestic tightening and external supply disruptions kick in," Qu Hongbin, HSBC Chief Economist for China, said in a research note. Still, Mr. Qu said there is no need worry about a "hard landing" for the Chinese economy. "Cooling growth is not all bad news as it also helps to tame inflation."

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended down 2.9% at 2774.57, while the Shenzhen Composite Index—for Shanghai's smaller sister market—fell 3.6% to 1149.39. Markets around the region were also trading lower, albeit less sharply, partly on continued euro crisis fears.

"The PMI is spooking investors today" in China, said Chen Jinren, an analyst at Huatai Securities, "especially since there are still real concerns about high inflation."

The latest inflation data, released earlier this month, showed that China's consumer price index rose 5.3% from a year earlier in April, down slightly from March's 5.4% rise but still well above the official full-year target of around 4%.

The preliminary China PMI figure is based on 85% to 90% of total responses to HSBC's PMI survey each month and is issued about one week before the final PMI reading for the month. The bank's final May China PMI reading is due on June 1, as is the official PMI released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

The official PMI for April, released on May 1, also showed a slowdown, falling to 52.9 from 53.4 in March.

Industrial production growth also slowed more rapidly than expected in April, according to data released earlier this month, rising 13.4% in April compared with 14.8% increase in March.

"In the next couple of months, we do expect some softness in the industrial production numbers, and continued decline in the PMIs," said Ms. Wang. Inventories of finished goods have been built up and are not meeting the expected level of final demand in some sectors such as autos, she added.

Auto sales, a closely watched indicator of consumption activity in China, have been disappointing this year. In April, auto sales fell 0.25% from a year earlier, the first such decline in two years. The semi-official China Association of Automobile Manufacturers now says its earlier forecast of 10%-15% auto sales growth this year is in doubt, an especially underwhelming performance compared with 32.4% growth in 2010.

Still, economists don't see any serious risk of a damaging slowdown in China. HSBC's Mr. Qu said that fighting inflation is likely to remain Beijing's focus in the coming months. Ms. Wang from UBS said she expects China's gross domestic product growth to come in at 9.3% this year, down from 10.3% in 2010, but still robust compared with most economies in the world.

In a survey of economists by Dow Jones last week, six out of 10 said they expect one more interest-rate increase this year, of a quarter of a percentage point to both lending and deposit rates. The People's Bank of China is also likely to raise banks' reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point next month, continuing its pattern of raising the ratio once a month so far this year, according to the survey.

To combat inflation, the central bank announced increases in its benchmark lending and deposit rates on April 5 and Feb. 8, following two similar moves in 2010, while also raising banks' required reserve ratio six times in 2010 and five times so far this year.

"It is likely that coming months will see a classic neurotic market mood swing towards China where investors stop worrying about inflation and start worrying about the opposite," said Chris Wood, an strategist at brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. "Still the authorities have complete freedom to turn the liquidity tap back on should they want to."

—Andrew Galbraith in Shanghai and Liu Li in Beijing contributed to this article.

[admin]

Iceland reabrira aeropuertos.

[admin]

China sigue preocupando

El 3% de caida en los precios del cobre muestra la vulnerabilidad del metal a lo que pasa en China.

China es el mas grande consumidor de cobre y reporto menores importaciones en Abril mostrando una menor demenda en Mayo, enviando olas de preocupacion al mercado.

China representa el 30% de la demanda del cobre.

En los primeros cuatro meses del anio, China importo 756,199 metric tons, o 29% menos que el mismo periodo el anio pasado. Las importaciones de cobre refinado en Baril bajo 48% comparado con el anio pasado y fue un 17% menos que en Marzo o 160,236 metric tons.

By TATYANA SHUMSKY
NEW YORK—A 3% drop in copper prices highlights the metal's vulnerability to China's whims.

China, the world's largest copper consumer, reported lower copper imports in April and slowing industrial demand in May, sending waves of worry through the market.

Many analysts had forecast a short-term dip in China's copper demand, with consumption picking up toward summer. But the sustained lower imports underscore the impact of China's tighter credit policies and raise concerns about a wider slowdown in China, which is considered the global economic engine.

."[The data] is a warning. It's a temporary correction in copper prices and in near-term demand out of China," said Justin Lennon, base metals analyst with Mitsui Bussan Commodities in New York.

Copper prices are attuned to China's economic growth, as the country's booming industrial and construction sectors have pushed global demand to outpace supply last year. China accounts for about 30% of global copper demand. Analysts had forecast supplies wouldn't keep up with demand again in 2011, as China's economy continues to grow at near double-digit pace.

But Beijing has been working to put the brakes on its economic growth and accompanying inflation by tightening its monetary policy, clouding the outlook for copper. By raising interest rates and bank-reserve requirements, policy makers have choked off credit to companies that need to buy copper.

As a result, these copper fabricators —which use copper to make electrical wiring and other products and are the main source of demand for the metal in China—have been using up inventories and are then relying on "hand-to-mouth" purchases to feed production lines.

These changes are taking a toll on China's copper imports. In the first four months of this year, China imported 756,199 metric tons, 29% less than the same period last year. Refined copper imports in April fell 48% from a year earlier and were down 17% from March to 160,236 metric tons.

China accounts for about 30% of global copper demand. Above, a man works at a copper smelter in Tongling, China.
.Moreover, China's industrial demand is also taking a step back. HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, fell to a 10-month low of 51.1 in May. A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The decline exacerbated market concerns about China's slowing economy and pointed to decreasing demand for copper, a key component in manufacturing of everything from cars and air-conditioners to iPhones.

"It would be very nice to see strength in either Western economies or China, at the moment you're not seeing either," said Mitsui's Mr. Lennon.

The contract for May delivery fell 12.90 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $3.9900 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The most actively-traded contract, for July delivery, settled down 13 cents, or 3.2%, at $3.9915 a pound.

"China is in a tough spot right now and things will be a bit tough for the next month or two, but the demand side and the wider sentiment around copper will pick up in the second half of the year," said Daniel Smith, metals analyst with Standard Chartered in London