por admin » Vie May 27, 2011 10:47 am
Fitch reduce el outlook de Japon a negativo de estable.
Japon es la tercera economia del mundo.
Fitch Lowers Japan Outlook
By WILLIAM SPOSATO
TOKYO—Fitch Ratings on Friday lowered its outlook for Japan's burgeoning government debt to negative from stable in a fresh reminder of the economic headwinds buffeting the world's third-largest economy.
The ratings firm's move follows similar actions by rivals Standard & Poor's Ratings Services and Moody's Investors Service. Both have placed a negative outlook on their Japan ratings as the nation deals with a massive amount of public debt amid the damage from March's devastating earthquake and tsunami and a continuing nuclear-power emergency.
Fitch cited the risks associated with the nuclear power plant crisis and noted that the country's gross debt ratio is already the highest of any country it tracks, at 210% of GDP by the end of 2010.
Fitch said that the reconstruction spending after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami were not the primary drivers of its ratings action. But it said that the still-unknown cost of cleaning up the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and ongoing problems in finding alternate sources of power could force a downward revision in the 2011 growth forecast, currently at 0.5%.
"Failure to strengthen the commitment to fiscal consolidation, or the emergence of substantial additional fiscal or economic costs from the process of reconstruction post-disaster, could trigger a downgrade," Fitch said in its release.
A government spokesman traveling with Prime Minister Kan for the summit of the Group of Eight industrialized nations in France said that Japan was committed to seeking fiscal reform while also aiming to rebuild the country from the devastation of the earthquake.
"We will continue to take on the challenge of fiscal reconstruction," Tetsuro Fukuyama, deputy Cabinet secretary, told reporters.
Fitch said that the emergence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan could see the rating revert to a stable outlook.
The yen weakened on the Fitch move. The dollar rose to around 81.08 from 80.91, although it later fell back and Friday morning New York time was at 81.05. But traders said the market impact would likely be limited.
Fitch carries an AA- rating on Japan's long-term local currency rating, the primary measurement. S&P also has a AA- rating, set in January, while Moody's is a notch higher at Aa2, put in place in May 2009.
Fitch said it would be looking at fiscal policy plans from the government and proposals on taxes and social security reform. But analysts say that the Kan administration faces severe difficulties in garnering the political support it needs from opposition parties for such measures, putting its fiscal consolidation measures at risk.
"The action is understandable given that it is unclear how the government is going to raise taxes to secure a revenue stream as government spending rises in the wake of the earthquake," said Junichi Shimizu, credit analyst at Deutsche Securities.
The ratings firm noted that Japan compares more favorably with other highly rated countries because of its massive stockpile of foreign exchange reserves. It said this justified the one-notch higher AA it puts on Japan's foreign currency rating.
—Kosaku Narioka and George Nishiyama contributed to this article.