Jueves 27/05/10 GDP (PBI)
por Victor VE » Jue May 27, 2010 7:16 am
Citi: el inversor Bill Ackman anuncia la compra de 150 millones de acciones
El inversor William Ackman, gestor del hedge fund Pershing Square Capital mangement y conocido por advertir sobre el funcionamiento de las monoline y apostar en su contra, señaló ayer que había adquirido un total de 150 millones de títulos de Citigroup.
Ackman dio a conocer esta información al finalizar su intervención en el encuentro anual Ira Sohn Investment Research Conference, donde se dan cita algunos de los gestores e inversores mas importante y menos prolíficos en público. "Por cierto, hemos comprado unos 150 millones de acciones de Citigroup, pero no tengo tiempo de hablar de ello", anunció sin dar más detalles, según recoge Reuters.
En su discurso, el inversor también aseguró que debería ser ilegal que las agencias de rating calificaran nuevas acciones y que su acceso a las compañías tendría que estar limitado. Además, consideró necesario que publiquen su metodología y criterios para asignar sus notas.
El inversor William Ackman, gestor del hedge fund Pershing Square Capital mangement y conocido por advertir sobre el funcionamiento de las monoline y apostar en su contra, señaló ayer que había adquirido un total de 150 millones de títulos de Citigroup.
Ackman dio a conocer esta información al finalizar su intervención en el encuentro anual Ira Sohn Investment Research Conference, donde se dan cita algunos de los gestores e inversores mas importante y menos prolíficos en público. "Por cierto, hemos comprado unos 150 millones de acciones de Citigroup, pero no tengo tiempo de hablar de ello", anunció sin dar más detalles, según recoge Reuters.
En su discurso, el inversor también aseguró que debería ser ilegal que las agencias de rating calificaran nuevas acciones y que su acceso a las compañías tendría que estar limitado. Además, consideró necesario que publiquen su metodología y criterios para asignar sus notas.
- Victor VE
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por Victor VE » Jue May 27, 2010 7:17 am
Biggs: "Tendremos un fuerte rebote en los próximos días"
El gurú Barton Biggs, que dirige el hedge fund Traxis Partners, cree que los mercados estadounidenses están sobrevendidos y que un fuerte rally podría acontecer en los próximos días.
"Creo que se van a estabilizar de una manera general, y después tendremos un significativo rebote al alza", explicó Biggs a Bloomberg. En el último año, su hedge fund consiguió una rentabilidad tres veces superior a la media de la industria,
Sin embargo, a pesar de que Biggs acertó el año pasado cuando el mercado tocó niveles mínimos desde los años 90, en marzo de este año vio un potencial del 10% en el mercado americano, y sin embargo el S&P 500 ha caído un 8,4% y ha descendido un 10% en mayo.
"El mercado está muy, muy sobrevendido, y creo que vamos a tener un gran rebote en algún momento en el próximo par de días", dijo Biggs. "No estaría sorprendido si vamos hacia nuevos altos desde la recuperación, sólo para hacer a la gente retorcerse".
En cuanto a Europa, Biggs reconoce tomarse los problemas en serio, pero también cree que "el peor escenario no va a suceder".
El gurú Barton Biggs, que dirige el hedge fund Traxis Partners, cree que los mercados estadounidenses están sobrevendidos y que un fuerte rally podría acontecer en los próximos días.
"Creo que se van a estabilizar de una manera general, y después tendremos un significativo rebote al alza", explicó Biggs a Bloomberg. En el último año, su hedge fund consiguió una rentabilidad tres veces superior a la media de la industria,
Sin embargo, a pesar de que Biggs acertó el año pasado cuando el mercado tocó niveles mínimos desde los años 90, en marzo de este año vio un potencial del 10% en el mercado americano, y sin embargo el S&P 500 ha caído un 8,4% y ha descendido un 10% en mayo.
"El mercado está muy, muy sobrevendido, y creo que vamos a tener un gran rebote en algún momento en el próximo par de días", dijo Biggs. "No estaría sorprendido si vamos hacia nuevos altos desde la recuperación, sólo para hacer a la gente retorcerse".
En cuanto a Europa, Biggs reconoce tomarse los problemas en serio, pero también cree que "el peor escenario no va a suceder".
- Victor VE
- Mensajes: 2987
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por eduforever » Jue May 27, 2010 7:19 am
Nikkei cierra con alza de 1,2% tras tocar mínimo de seis meses
El índice de referencia de la bolsa de Tokio subió 117,06 puntos y cerró en 9.639,72 tras haber caído más temprano hasta 9.395,29, su menor nivel desde comienzos de diciembre.
REUTERS
Tokio. El índice Nikkei de la bolsa de Tokio repuntó desde mínimos de seis meses y cerró con una subida de 1,2%, en su mejor evolución diaria de dos semanas, mientras que la debilidad del yen ante el euro contrarrestó la preocupación por la crisis de deuda europea.
Las acciones habían caído más temprano luego de que el Financial Times dijo que China está revisando sus tenencias en bonos de la eurozona por crecientes preocupaciones sobre los déficits en países del bloque, intensificando temores de los inversores acerca de que la crisis europea podría frenar la recuperación económica global.
El índice de referencia Nikkei subió 117,06 puntos y cerró en 9.639,72 tras haber caído más temprano hasta 9.395,29, su menor nivel desde comienzos de diciembre. El índice ampliado Topix subió 1,3 %.
Las acciones de Sony Corp subieron 2,1%, mientras que Canon Inc ganó otro 2,1% y Honda Motor Co 1,2%. Todos iniciaron la sesión en terreno negativo.
El índice de referencia de la bolsa de Tokio subió 117,06 puntos y cerró en 9.639,72 tras haber caído más temprano hasta 9.395,29, su menor nivel desde comienzos de diciembre.
REUTERS
Tokio. El índice Nikkei de la bolsa de Tokio repuntó desde mínimos de seis meses y cerró con una subida de 1,2%, en su mejor evolución diaria de dos semanas, mientras que la debilidad del yen ante el euro contrarrestó la preocupación por la crisis de deuda europea.
Las acciones habían caído más temprano luego de que el Financial Times dijo que China está revisando sus tenencias en bonos de la eurozona por crecientes preocupaciones sobre los déficits en países del bloque, intensificando temores de los inversores acerca de que la crisis europea podría frenar la recuperación económica global.
El índice de referencia Nikkei subió 117,06 puntos y cerró en 9.639,72 tras haber caído más temprano hasta 9.395,29, su menor nivel desde comienzos de diciembre. El índice ampliado Topix subió 1,3 %.
Las acciones de Sony Corp subieron 2,1%, mientras que Canon Inc ganó otro 2,1% y Honda Motor Co 1,2%. Todos iniciaron la sesión en terreno negativo.
- eduforever
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por eduforever » Jue May 27, 2010 7:22 am
"En Estados Unidos siempre es buen momento para hacer trading"
“Tenemos una visión bajista del mercado, porque técnicamente los principales indicadores americanos han roto la media de las 200 sesiones, hemos visto un rally espectacular y todas las caídas que después se han producido han sido pequeñas, pero han roto soportes”, así lo asegura José María Manzanares, director de Productos y Mercados.
27-05-2010/ 12:05
Jose Manzanares Allén , Director de Productos y Mercados
Si en Europa el sector bancario está en el punto de mira, sobre todo en España, donde durante esta semana están sufriendo un fuerte castigo… ¿cómo se encuentra este sector al otro lado del Atlántico? “Los bancos en Estados Unidos están igual de mal o peor que en Europa”, asegura Manzanares. Y es que pese a que “la banca americana hizo antes los deberes, el Tesoro les inyectó dinero… ahora todo este proceso hay que hacerlo en Europa, donde no ha habido saneamiento”, afirma. No obstante -continúa- “hay que tener en cuenta que en EE.UU. las referencias macroeconómicas están saliendo mejor que en Europa y podría apoyar a una mayor recuperación del sector”.
“Estados Unidos es el mercado del Trading, y allí siempre es un buen momento para hacerlo”, reconoce este experto. “El mercado de opciones se ha multiplicado por diez en los últimos dos años, hay todo tipo de productos, vía CFDS, ETFS el mercado da muchas posibilidades”. De hecho -continúa- “diariamente el 50% del mercado se mueve en ETFs y la opción que más mueve es Citigroup, es un valor que tiene recomendación de compra y creo que es de lo poco que se podría salvar porque el Tesoro tiene un 70% del banco y le interesa que tenga un valor alto”.
En lo que respecta al dato de PIB que se conocerá hoy, “se espera una revisión de 3,4% del PIB en línea con el primer dato y habrá que fijarse en la clave que es el dato de consumo”, explica.
En el mercado de divisas, todo apunta a que el euro seguirá devaluándose frente al dólar. “Nosotros apostamos a que si rompe el nivel de los 1,2340 el dólar se apreciaríamos y pasó ayer”. ¿Hasta donde se apreciará el dólar? “Es difícil saberlo”, explica Manzanares, “aunque nosotros lo vemos a niveles de 1,20 unidades sin problemas, seguimos viendo una tendencia bajista del euro”.
En el mercado de materias primas -continúa- “creemos que el oro seguirá subiendo aunque nosotros retiramos nuestras posiciones”. “Pero ha vuelto a rebotar y creemos que sigue funcionando como un activo refugio”, señala. “También el petróleo está rebotando y creemos que es más técnico debido a los buenos datos macroeconómico”, apunta. “Dentro de lo que son Comodities no invertiríamos en ninguna, finaliza.
http://www.estrategiasdeinversion.com/v ... er-trading
“Tenemos una visión bajista del mercado, porque técnicamente los principales indicadores americanos han roto la media de las 200 sesiones, hemos visto un rally espectacular y todas las caídas que después se han producido han sido pequeñas, pero han roto soportes”, así lo asegura José María Manzanares, director de Productos y Mercados.
27-05-2010/ 12:05
Jose Manzanares Allén , Director de Productos y Mercados
Si en Europa el sector bancario está en el punto de mira, sobre todo en España, donde durante esta semana están sufriendo un fuerte castigo… ¿cómo se encuentra este sector al otro lado del Atlántico? “Los bancos en Estados Unidos están igual de mal o peor que en Europa”, asegura Manzanares. Y es que pese a que “la banca americana hizo antes los deberes, el Tesoro les inyectó dinero… ahora todo este proceso hay que hacerlo en Europa, donde no ha habido saneamiento”, afirma. No obstante -continúa- “hay que tener en cuenta que en EE.UU. las referencias macroeconómicas están saliendo mejor que en Europa y podría apoyar a una mayor recuperación del sector”.
“Estados Unidos es el mercado del Trading, y allí siempre es un buen momento para hacerlo”, reconoce este experto. “El mercado de opciones se ha multiplicado por diez en los últimos dos años, hay todo tipo de productos, vía CFDS, ETFS el mercado da muchas posibilidades”. De hecho -continúa- “diariamente el 50% del mercado se mueve en ETFs y la opción que más mueve es Citigroup, es un valor que tiene recomendación de compra y creo que es de lo poco que se podría salvar porque el Tesoro tiene un 70% del banco y le interesa que tenga un valor alto”.
En lo que respecta al dato de PIB que se conocerá hoy, “se espera una revisión de 3,4% del PIB en línea con el primer dato y habrá que fijarse en la clave que es el dato de consumo”, explica.
En el mercado de divisas, todo apunta a que el euro seguirá devaluándose frente al dólar. “Nosotros apostamos a que si rompe el nivel de los 1,2340 el dólar se apreciaríamos y pasó ayer”. ¿Hasta donde se apreciará el dólar? “Es difícil saberlo”, explica Manzanares, “aunque nosotros lo vemos a niveles de 1,20 unidades sin problemas, seguimos viendo una tendencia bajista del euro”.
En el mercado de materias primas -continúa- “creemos que el oro seguirá subiendo aunque nosotros retiramos nuestras posiciones”. “Pero ha vuelto a rebotar y creemos que sigue funcionando como un activo refugio”, señala. “También el petróleo está rebotando y creemos que es más técnico debido a los buenos datos macroeconómico”, apunta. “Dentro de lo que son Comodities no invertiríamos en ninguna, finaliza.
http://www.estrategiasdeinversion.com/v ... er-trading
- eduforever
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por admin » Jue May 27, 2010 7:26 am
El cambio planteado por el Financial Accounting Standars Board requeriria que los bancos usen el valor del mercado para los prestamos que estan en sus libros, esto seria un controversial cambio que podria causar perdidas significativas en el valor de algunos bancos.
'Fair Value' Proposal Could Cost Banks
By MICHAEL RAPOPORT
The Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed a requirement that banks use market values for loans on their books, a controversial move that could cause steep declines in the overall book value of some banks.
If the rule-making panel for accounting procedures approves the change, U.S. banks would have to adjust the value of their loan portfolios to the ups and downs of the market, instead of the longstanding practice of using adjusted original cost.
Using original cost "is kind of out-of-date," said Robert Herz, FASB's chairman. "From a balance-sheet perspective, a lot of people want to see what things are actually worth now."
Banks have long opposed any shift to so-called "fair-value" accounting of loans. Most bank balance sheets are packed with loans held at their original cost. Under the FASB proposal announced Wednesday, both the fair value of a company's loans and their amortized original cost would have to be shown on the balance sheet.
Experience WSJ professional Editors' Deep Dive: Accounting Change Looming Over U.S. BusinessACCOUNTING TODAY
Fair Value Is Coming
.The CPA Journal
Capitalizing Lease Payments
.Treasury and Risk
Rightsizing Accounting. Access thousands of business sources not available on the free web. Learn More .Any quarterly changes or fluctuations in fair value would have to be incorporated into the company's assets, affecting shareholder equity, or assets minus liabilities. Some of the revisions to shareholder equity could be dramatic given depressed real-estate values and the struggling U.S. economy.
Edward Yingling, president and chief executive of the American Bankers Association, a trade group, said the proposal "presents significant problems, not only for banks, but also the general economy." The change would undermine the availability of credit because any bank making a long-term loan would immediately see that loan lose value under the new accounting standard, he said.
Critics of applying fair value to loans have claimed the existing use of fair value has deepened the financial crisis by forcing financial firms to take unjustified losses on assets that shrank in value when market conditions worsened temporarily.
Banks already disclose the fair value of loans in footnotes filed with their financial statements. Still, supporters of applying fair value to loans on the balance sheet have said it would help investors by making bank balance sheets clearer and more accurate.
FASB's move takes a tougher line than the International Accounting Standards Board, which has proposed that non-U.S. companies carry their loans at amortized cost, as long as their business model is to hold onto their loans and collect the payments on them rather than selling the loans. The difference between the two approaches complicates a major effort to bring U.S. and non-U.S. accounting rules closer together.
FASB is accepting public comments on its proposal until Sept. 30. The accounting board plans to hold public meetings on the move in October. Possible reconsideration and a final vote by FASB would come later.
If the proposal is approved, it likely wouldn't take effect before 2013, Mr. Herz said. Closely held banks with less than $1 billion in assets would have four years longer than other companies to start complying with some aspects of the rule.
Most of the 7,932 federally insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the U.S. as of March 31 are small. At many of those institutions, two-thirds or more of the balance sheet is made up loans held at their original cost.
'Fair Value' Proposal Could Cost Banks
By MICHAEL RAPOPORT
The Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed a requirement that banks use market values for loans on their books, a controversial move that could cause steep declines in the overall book value of some banks.
If the rule-making panel for accounting procedures approves the change, U.S. banks would have to adjust the value of their loan portfolios to the ups and downs of the market, instead of the longstanding practice of using adjusted original cost.
Using original cost "is kind of out-of-date," said Robert Herz, FASB's chairman. "From a balance-sheet perspective, a lot of people want to see what things are actually worth now."
Banks have long opposed any shift to so-called "fair-value" accounting of loans. Most bank balance sheets are packed with loans held at their original cost. Under the FASB proposal announced Wednesday, both the fair value of a company's loans and their amortized original cost would have to be shown on the balance sheet.
Experience WSJ professional Editors' Deep Dive: Accounting Change Looming Over U.S. BusinessACCOUNTING TODAY
Fair Value Is Coming
.The CPA Journal
Capitalizing Lease Payments
.Treasury and Risk
Rightsizing Accounting. Access thousands of business sources not available on the free web. Learn More .Any quarterly changes or fluctuations in fair value would have to be incorporated into the company's assets, affecting shareholder equity, or assets minus liabilities. Some of the revisions to shareholder equity could be dramatic given depressed real-estate values and the struggling U.S. economy.
Edward Yingling, president and chief executive of the American Bankers Association, a trade group, said the proposal "presents significant problems, not only for banks, but also the general economy." The change would undermine the availability of credit because any bank making a long-term loan would immediately see that loan lose value under the new accounting standard, he said.
Critics of applying fair value to loans have claimed the existing use of fair value has deepened the financial crisis by forcing financial firms to take unjustified losses on assets that shrank in value when market conditions worsened temporarily.
Banks already disclose the fair value of loans in footnotes filed with their financial statements. Still, supporters of applying fair value to loans on the balance sheet have said it would help investors by making bank balance sheets clearer and more accurate.
FASB's move takes a tougher line than the International Accounting Standards Board, which has proposed that non-U.S. companies carry their loans at amortized cost, as long as their business model is to hold onto their loans and collect the payments on them rather than selling the loans. The difference between the two approaches complicates a major effort to bring U.S. and non-U.S. accounting rules closer together.
FASB is accepting public comments on its proposal until Sept. 30. The accounting board plans to hold public meetings on the move in October. Possible reconsideration and a final vote by FASB would come later.
If the proposal is approved, it likely wouldn't take effect before 2013, Mr. Herz said. Closely held banks with less than $1 billion in assets would have four years longer than other companies to start complying with some aspects of the rule.
Most of the 7,932 federally insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the U.S. as of March 31 are small. At many of those institutions, two-thirds or more of the balance sheet is made up loans held at their original cost.
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por Victor VE » Jue May 27, 2010 7:31 am
Why I Don't Trust Gold
This is a very sad day for me.
In Part One of this series, when I argued that gold might be about to go vertical, I made a whole bunch of new friends among the gold bugs.
And now I'm going to lose them all.
That's because even though I think gold might be about to take off, I don't recommend you rush out and put all your money into gold bars or exchange-traded funds that hold bullion.
And this is for one simple reason: At some levels, gold, as an investment, is absolutely ridiculous.
Warren Buffett put it well. "Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace," he said. "Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
And that's not the half of it.
Gold is volatile. It's hard to value. It generates no income.
Yes, it's a "hard asset," but so are lots of other things—like land, bags of rice, even bottled water.
It's a currency "substitute," but it's useless. In prison, at least, they use cigarettes: If all else fails, they can smoke them. Imagine a bunch of health nuts in a nonsmoking "facility" still trying to settle their debts with cigarettes. That's gold. It doesn't make sense.
As for being a "store of value," anyone who bought gold in the late 1970s and held on lost nearly all their purchasing power over the next 20 years.
I get worried when I see people plunging heavily into gold at $1,200 an ounce. What if the price goes back to where it was just a few years ago, at $500 or $600 an ounce? Will you buy more? Sell?
My concerns about gold go even further than that.
Let's step inside the gold market for a moment.
Everyone knows the price has risen about fivefold in the past decade. But this is not due to some mystical truth or magical act of levitation. It is simply because there have been more buyers than sellers.
Banal, but true—and sometimes worth repeating.
If the price rises you'd think there must be a shortage. But data provided by the World Gold Council, an industry body, tell a remarkable story.
Over that period the world has produced—or, more accurately, recovered—far more gold than anyone actually wanted to use. Since 2002, for example, total demand for gold from goldsmiths and jewelers, and dentists, and general industry, has come to about 22,500 tonnes.
But during the same period, more than 29,000 tonnes has come on to the market.
The surplus alone is enough to produce about 220 million one-ounce gold American Buffalo coins. That's in eight years.
Most of the new supply has come from mine production. Some, though a dwindling amount, has come from central banks. And a growing amount has come from recycling—old jewelry and the like being melted down for scrap. (This is a perennial issue with gold. I never understand why the fans think gold's incredible durability—it doesn't waste or corrode—is bullish for the market. It's bearish.) So if supply has consistently exceeded user demand, how come the price of gold has still been rising?
In a word, hoarding.
Gold investors, or hoarders, have made up all the difference. They are the only reason total "demand" has exceeded supply.
Lots of people have been buying gold in the hope it would rise. But the only way it can rise is if still more people buy it, hoping it will rise still further. And so on.
What do we call an investment scheme where current members' returns depend entirely on new money brought in by new members?
A Ponzi scheme.
Yes, as I wrote earlier, gold may well be the next big bubble. And that may mean there is big money to be made in speculation.
But I don't trust it as an investment.
How can you square this golden circle? I'll tell you in Part Three.
This is a very sad day for me.
In Part One of this series, when I argued that gold might be about to go vertical, I made a whole bunch of new friends among the gold bugs.
And now I'm going to lose them all.
That's because even though I think gold might be about to take off, I don't recommend you rush out and put all your money into gold bars or exchange-traded funds that hold bullion.
And this is for one simple reason: At some levels, gold, as an investment, is absolutely ridiculous.
Warren Buffett put it well. "Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace," he said. "Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
And that's not the half of it.
Gold is volatile. It's hard to value. It generates no income.
Yes, it's a "hard asset," but so are lots of other things—like land, bags of rice, even bottled water.
It's a currency "substitute," but it's useless. In prison, at least, they use cigarettes: If all else fails, they can smoke them. Imagine a bunch of health nuts in a nonsmoking "facility" still trying to settle their debts with cigarettes. That's gold. It doesn't make sense.
As for being a "store of value," anyone who bought gold in the late 1970s and held on lost nearly all their purchasing power over the next 20 years.
I get worried when I see people plunging heavily into gold at $1,200 an ounce. What if the price goes back to where it was just a few years ago, at $500 or $600 an ounce? Will you buy more? Sell?
My concerns about gold go even further than that.
Let's step inside the gold market for a moment.
Everyone knows the price has risen about fivefold in the past decade. But this is not due to some mystical truth or magical act of levitation. It is simply because there have been more buyers than sellers.
Banal, but true—and sometimes worth repeating.
If the price rises you'd think there must be a shortage. But data provided by the World Gold Council, an industry body, tell a remarkable story.
Over that period the world has produced—or, more accurately, recovered—far more gold than anyone actually wanted to use. Since 2002, for example, total demand for gold from goldsmiths and jewelers, and dentists, and general industry, has come to about 22,500 tonnes.
But during the same period, more than 29,000 tonnes has come on to the market.
The surplus alone is enough to produce about 220 million one-ounce gold American Buffalo coins. That's in eight years.
Most of the new supply has come from mine production. Some, though a dwindling amount, has come from central banks. And a growing amount has come from recycling—old jewelry and the like being melted down for scrap. (This is a perennial issue with gold. I never understand why the fans think gold's incredible durability—it doesn't waste or corrode—is bullish for the market. It's bearish.) So if supply has consistently exceeded user demand, how come the price of gold has still been rising?
In a word, hoarding.
Gold investors, or hoarders, have made up all the difference. They are the only reason total "demand" has exceeded supply.
Lots of people have been buying gold in the hope it would rise. But the only way it can rise is if still more people buy it, hoping it will rise still further. And so on.
What do we call an investment scheme where current members' returns depend entirely on new money brought in by new members?
A Ponzi scheme.
Yes, as I wrote earlier, gold may well be the next big bubble. And that may mean there is big money to be made in speculation.
But I don't trust it as an investment.
How can you square this golden circle? I'll tell you in Part Three.
- Victor VE
- Mensajes: 2987
- Registrado: Jue Abr 22, 2010 8:33 am
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