Martes 31/05/11, PMI de Chicago, Indice del precio de casas

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NR +6.01%

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Au up 1,537

+117

No creo que esto suba mas, a ver como van los indicadores restantes.

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Los precios de las casas cayeron mas de lo esperado. Siguen las malas noticias por parte de ese sector.

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La confianza del consumidor en 60.80 baja de 66 en Abril. Siguen las malas noticias.

Au up 1,536

Futures cu up 4.20

El Dow Jones sigue al alza en 99 puntos.

Yo vendi todo antes de que baje mas.

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+103.05

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BVN -2.10%

SCCO -0.08%

EPU -3.69%

ERX +3.49%

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Los precios de las casas sigue bajando, bajo 4.2% en el primer trimestre y esta en el nivel mas bajo de la era post-bubble (despues de la burbuja), de acuerdo al S&P Case-Shiller index.

Home Prices Still Falling

By MELODIE WARNER
U.S. home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter, hitting a new post-bubble low after falling 3.6% in the fourth quarter, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes.

"This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation," said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee. "The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level. Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight," he added.

Once federal home-buyer tax credits expired last year, the indexes -- based on the three-month averages of home prices -- started to fall again in August, increasing fears of a double dip in the home-buying market.

While other parts of the economy have started to show improvement, the housing market continues to sputter as U.S. unemployment remains high and a steady supply of foreclosures weigh on home sales and prices.

The National Association of Realtors said earlier this month that existing home sales eased 0.8% in April from March, while prices dropped 5%.

The Case-Shiller index of 10 major metropolitan areas fell 0.6% and the 20-city index was down 0.8% in March from February. Compared with a year earlier, unadjusted March prices fell 2.9% for the 10 major markets while the 20-city index dropped 3.6%.

Most of the major areas saw prices decline from a month earlier, with Minneapolis seeing the biggest drop at 3.7%, followed by Charlotte and Chicago, both with a 2.4% decrease.

Only the Washington, D.C., and Seattle markets saw month-to-month growth of 1.1% and 0.1%, respectively.

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La economia americana se resbala, el poder del Fed solo no puede levantarla, se necesita al sector privado, sector que sigue deprimido y desmoralizado por los ataques de la izquierda y de Obama. Se necesita un presidente que apoye a los empresarios, Obama tiene como mision insultar, agredir y atacar al sector privado, todos son unos explotadores, abusivos, ganan mucho, etc, etc, etc. En un escenario asi, US jamas podra crecer como lo hacia antes. Jamas.

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+96.20

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Greek Bailout Hopes Lift Stocks

By JONATHAN CHENG
NEW YORK—U.S. stocks opened sharply higher as investors shrugged off further weakness in home prices and trained their sights on prospects for a new bailout plan for Greece.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 132 points, or 1.1%, to 12558, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 12 points to 1342 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 24 points to 2357.

The gains were powered by news that Germany is considering dropping its push for an early rescheduling of Greek bonds in order to facilitate a new package of aid loans for Greece. European markets were strongly higher, with Germany's DAX index adding 2%. Spain's IBEX 35 index surged 2.2%, while Asian bourses also rallied. China's Shanghai Composite snapped an eight-session losing streak.

"Any kind of relief rally won't be a sustainable one—there will be more problems," said Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis at Charles Schwab. "What they're talking about [with Greece] doesn't end the problem, but the market is enjoying a bit of a sigh of relief that they've kicked the can further down the road."

On the U.S. economic front, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices deteriorated further. Prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.6% in March compared with the same month a year earlier, marking "the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation," according to David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee. "Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight," he added.

.Readings on May manufacturing activity in the Chicago area and consumer confidence are on tap later in the morning, along with a separate assessment of manufacturing activity in its region by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

U.S. stock futures rose sharply on Tuesday.

.In corporate news, Ashland jumped 12% after it entered into an agreement to buy closely held specialty-chemicals supplier International Specialty Products for $3.2 billion in cash. In addition, KKR & Co. edged up 0.6% after the private-equity firm said it agreed to buy sports and outdoor retailer Academy Sports + Outdoors, which generated revenue of $2.7 billion last year.

In other merger news, shares of Central Vermont Public Service soared 42% after the utility agreed to be acquired by Fortis Inc. for $700 million.

Crude oil futures climbed to $103 a barrel, while gold futures traded flat at about $1,535 an ounce. The U.S. dollar fell against the euro but advanced strongly against the yen.

Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com

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EPU -4.07% poniendose al dia con la caida de ayer en el Peru.

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Oil up 102.78

VIX up 16.10

+97.48

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Ag up 38.51

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No es solo debilidad en el primer trimestre. Nohay indicacion de que la economia este mejorando. La manufactura se esta enfriando, la consutruccion esta baja, y el consumidor esta atento a sus gastos.

Economists Downgrade Prospects for Growth
Weakness in First Quarter Now Showing Signs of Persisting

By SARA MURRAY And JON HILSENRATH
The world's largest economy may be facing a growth problem.

After a disappointing first quarter, economists largely predicted the U.S. recovery would ramp back up as short-term disruptions such as higher gas prices, bad weather and supply problems in Japan subsided.

But there's little indication that's happening. Manufacturing is cooling, the housing market is struggling and consumers are keeping a close eye on spending, meaning the U.S. economy might be on a slower path to full health than expected.

"It's very hard to generate a rapid recovery when rapid recoveries are historically driven by housing and the consumer," said Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight. He expects an annualized, inflation-adjusted growth rate of less than 3% in coming quarters—better than the first-quarter's 1.8% rate, but too slow to make a meaningful dent in unemployment.

A growing number of forecasters are downgrading their second-quarter growth predictions. JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists revised down their estimate to a 2.5% rate from 3%, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists cut theirs to 2% from 2.8%. Deutsche Bank cut its forecast to 3.2% from 3.7%.

Companies are similarly cautious. Applied Materials Inc., the largest maker of machines used in producing computer chips, said it expected growth in its semiconductor and solar markets to slow following one of its best quarters ever. Hewlett-Packard Co. cut its fiscal-year outlook amid weak computer sales and negative effects from the disaster in Japan. Clorox Co. offered a more guarded outlook for its household goods business as executives noted that higher prices may hurt sales.

The dimming outlook raises a deeper question about the economy's health: Has it emerged from the financial turmoil of 2008 and 2009 with a chronic growth problem?

Some economists think it has. "We keep expecting the economy to perform along norms that are very difficult to achieve when you have this much private debt and public debt," said Carmen Reinhart, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. She thinks the Federal Reserve's forecasts have been too optimistic, and the U.S. could be in for a protracted period of subpar growth and high unemployment.

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.In their April forecast, Fed officials projected the economy would grow between 3.1% and 3.3% in 2011 and between 3.5% and 4.2% in 2012. That's more optimistic than private forecasters, who on average project growth of 2.9% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012, according to Blue Chip Economics, which surveys forecasters monthly.

Even after temporary headwinds subside, the economy could face challenges as the Fed scales back its stimulus efforts, state and local governments trim spending to balance their budgets and Congress looks to cut federal spending next year.

To be sure, some corners of the economy are showing strength. Job growth has been relatively robust in recent months and expansion in emerging markets is helping to buoy export demand. But it will take strong, sustained job gains to inspire households to spend freely, economists say.

Judy Sheppers, 70, of Aiken, S.C. has no doubt the economy is improving. She recently found a job at a real estate company after being laid off in 2008 and is now able to splurge on lunches and dinners out. But she's holding back on more substantial spending. "I'd love to travel," said Ms. Sheppers, but with a tight budget, she and a few friends are planning road trips to nearby beaches. "I do the driving, they pay for the gas."

Meanwhile, with home prices falling and sales depressed, both builders and buyers are on edge.

After starting off the year on a high note, Victor DePhillips' optimism is waning. The chief executive of Signature Building Systems, which manufactures modular homes in Moosic, Pa., and employs about 165 workers, says he has seen orders slow in the past month or so.

While things aren't nearly as bleak as they were during the depths of the downturn, qualified buyers seem to be holding back, possibly because they think prices still have further to fall. "It's a little scary," Mr. DePhillips said. "I don't know what to attribute it to."

Since the recession officially ended in mid-2009, the economy's annualized growth rate has averaged 2.8%. That's no better than its performance after the much-milder 2001 recession, and far worse than the 7.1% growth rate after the similarly deep 1982 recession.

"There are pretty big costs to not really generating a sizeable recovery," said Joseph Lupton, an economist at JP Morgan Chase & Co. Most notably: high unemployment. Some 5.8 million people have been out of work for more than six months, and prolonged slow economic growth makes it less likely that they will rejoin the labor force.

Slow growth could become a central focus in the weeks ahead. Fed officials revised down their 2011 growth forecast in April. With new forecasts due June 22, they might be forced to do so again. If growth disappoints, that could mean less inflation pressure, reducing the likelihood the Fed would raise interest rates anytime soon.

Write to Sara Murray at sara.murray@wsj.com and Jon Hilsenrath at jon.hilsenrath@wsj.com

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+85.83