Viernes 03/06/11 Comprar, vender o mantener en Peru?

[admin]

Analistas dicen que las acciones deben subir ya que la caida debido a empleo ha sido exagerada.

Analysts: Stocks Poised to Rally as Jobs-Data Focus Is Overdone

By TOMI KILGORE
Although the government's jobs report this morning is likely to compound worries of a broader economic slowdown, the biggest two-day slide in stocks in nearly three months suggests investors have overreacted. And analysts say this could even set the market up for a nice rally.

The Labor Department releases its May employment report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time following a string of weaker-than-expected readings on jobs, the housing market, manufacturing and consumer confidence. Investors are right to fear the worst out of the report, but it might not be the straw that breaks the market's back.

"I think [a weak number] is already going to be priced in, on a numerical standpoint," said Frank Fantozzi, chief executive of Planned Financial Services. "It's just one number. People get caught up with the idea that momentum is slowing a little, but the trend [of payroll growth] is still positive."

In anticipation of a weak employment report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average followed up Wednesday's 280-point tumble with a 42-point decline on Thursday. The last time the Dow fell this much in back-to-back sessions was March 16, when Japan was still grappling with the aftermath of its earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis. The very next day, the Dow launched a six-week rally to multi-year highs.

Analysts believe that investors have placed too much emphasis on a single data point, and that fears the economy is falling apart are overdone. Rex Macey, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust, said investors have become "hyper-sensitive" to monthly jobs data. "Any one item shouldn't move the market that much."

The nonfarm payroll number, even if it misses forecasts, is still likely to increase for an eighth consecutive month. That would be the longest such streak in four years.

The labor market, as well as the overall economy, is still growing—just at a slower rate than previously thought. And some analysts think that the market's recent slide indicates investor expectations have been reset enough that upcoming data should start surprising to the upside soon.

J.P. Morgan analysts said incoming economic data have disappointed so consistently that some indexes tracking economic surprises have fallen to the lowest non-recession readings seen since 2004. They are now at levels that are historically associated with a rebound in economic momentum and a trough in stocks, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index gaining 5% on average over the next three months, U.S. equity strategist Thomas Lee said in a research note.

For that reason, Mr. Lee said the recent selloff in stocks "feels of capitulation."

There have also been some rumblings that even if the payroll number is weaker than expected stocks could still rally because the Federal Reserve might consider a third round of quantitative easing, dubbed as QE3.

But Mr. Macey said that not only is QE3 highly unlikely, the thought of bad news being good is like hoping for a painful illness so a painkiller could be prescribed. "I'd rather be healthy," he said.

Write to Tomi Kilgore at tomi.kilgore@dowjones.com

[admin]

Fiat firmó un acuerdo para comprar por más de US$500 millones el 6% que el gobierno de EE.UU. aún tiene en Chrysler. Ello, a su vez, permitiría a la automotriz italiana adquirir la mayoría o la totalidad de las participaciones de otros accionistas, dijeron personas al tanto del asunto.

China negó haber sido el origen de recientes ataques contra usuarios de Gmail, el servicio de correo electrónico de Google. La empresa estadounidense afirmó esta semana que hackers afincados en China infiltraron las cuentas de cientos de usuarios. Esas acusaciones son "inaceptables", dijo un portavoz del ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores chino.

La Reserva Federal de EE.UU. ya ha hecho lo suficiente para estimular la economía, dijo Richard Fisher, presidente de la Fed de Dallas, a The Wall Street Journal. Se ha especulado que la Fed podría volver a inyectar liquidez después de que datos recientes indicaron que la economía estaba perdiendo ímpetu. Ayer, las acciones cayeron por segunda jornada consecutiva debido a las malas noticias económicas.

Groupon, empresa de Internet especializada en otorgar cupones de descuento, ha solicitado permiso para salir a bolsa en EE.UU. La firma busca recaudar hasta US$750 millones. El año pasado, la empresa fundada en 2008 rechazó una oferta de compra de Google por US$6.000 millones.

Stephen Elop, presidente ejecutivo del fabricante finlandés de celulares Nokia, defendió la alianza de su compañía con Microsoft para usar Windows en sus teléfonos inteligentes, un segmento en el que la compañía se ha rezagado. Elop cree que ello ayudará a que Nokia se diferencie de la competencia. Agregó que la compañía entraría en el mercado de las tabletas.

Starbucks, cadena estadounidense de cafeterías, firmó un acuerdo con su socio chino, Maxim's Caterers, por el cual toma el control total de 250 puntos de venta en China continental. Maxim queda con el control total de 110 locales de Starbucks en Hong Kong. Starbucks quiere concentrarse en la expansión en China continental.

Petrobras seguirá exportando más de lo que importa este año en términos de volumen, a pesar de la fuerte demanda interna y la escasez de etanol que llevó a la empresa estatal a importar gasolina por segundo año consecutivo, le dijo el director de negocios de comercialización de la empresa, Paulo Roberto Costa, a la agencia Dow Jones.

JBS, frigorífico brasileño, informó ayer que la suspensión de las importaciones de proteína animal procedente de tres estados brasileños impuesta por Rusia afecta a tres de sus mataderos, pero la compañía continuará vendiéndole a ese país la carne de sus otras unidades. Rusia no dio detalles sobre las razones detrás de la suspensión.

Royal Dutch Shell, petrolera anglo-holandesa, y Cosan, productor brasileño de etanol, formalizaron su empresa conjunta de US$12.000 millones para producir biocombustibles en Brasil. La meta es generar anualmente 2.000 millones de litros de etanol a base de caña de azúcar.

La inflación en Chile debería bajar en los próximos meses ya que los precios no están subiendo tanto como se preveía, señaló el ministro de Economía, Felipe Larraín. La previsión para este año es de 4,3%.

Argentina y Brasil acordaron mantener reuniones mensuales para solucionar una disputa por las licencias de importación para autos y otros productos clave.

[admin]

Euro, petroleo, Au down.

Treasurys Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note 0/32 0.460
10-Year Note 8/32 3.002
* at close

6:24 a.m. EDT 06/03/11Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 99.36 -1.04 100.40
Gold 1527.3 -5.4 1532.7
DJ Industrials 12199 -39 12238
S&P 500 1306.70 -5.70 1312.40

6:36 a.m. EDT 06/03/11Currencies Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 80.59 80.91
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4487 1.4491
† Late Thursday in New York.

[admin]

Copper June 03,06:19
Bid/Ask 4.1120 - 4.1137
Change +0.0060 +0.15%
Low/High 4.1011 - 4.1562
Charts

Nickel June 03,06:19
Bid/Ask 10.2871 - 10.2957
Change -0.0227 -0.22%
Low/High 10.2417 - 10.4431
Charts

Aluminum June 03,06:19
Bid/Ask 1.1701 - 1.1710
Change +0.0034 +0.29%
Low/High 1.1667 - 1.1818
Charts

Zinc June 03,06:19
Bid/Ask 1.0055 - 1.0064
Change +0.0023 +0.23%
Low/High 1.0019 - 1.0218
Charts

Lead June 03,06:19
Bid/Ask 1.1024 - 1.1032
Change +0.0032 +0.29%
Low/High 1.0983 - 1.1209

[admin]

Moddy's dijo que podria dar un downgrade a alguno de los bancos mas grandes de US, si ven que los bancos dependen del gobierno en momentos de crisis.

Moody's esta revisando los ratings de las gigantes BAC, C, y WFC.

Moody's, Citing End of U.S. Aid, Warns Bofa, Citi and Wells

By MATT PHILLIPS And DAVID BENOIT
Moody's Investors Service said it may downgrade credit ratings of some of the biggest U.S. banks, as it reconsiders the likelihood that they will be supported by the government in times of trouble.

Moody's, a unit of Moody's Corp., on Thursday said it is reviewing the ratings of financial giants such as Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. Bank ratings historically have included the assumption that the government would step in to support them during a crisis.

Moody's analysts are reviewing whether the government is less likely to support banks once the new Dodd-Frank financial overhaul rules are put into place. That lack of support could cost the banks one ratings notch or more. On the other hand, Moody's said some improvement in the bank's operations could temper some of those cuts.

"Certainly the intent of the U.S. regulator is pretty clear in that they don't want to support banks going forward," Bob Young, managing director of Moody's banking team, said in an interview. "There's no single thing that we can hang this on; rather it's an evolving post-crisis environment."


The issue of whether any bank should be considered too big to fail has become a lightning rod in Washington and the financial markets. The Dodd-Frank rules include a "systemically important" designation, a category devised for firms considered big enough to threaten the entire financial system if they fail.

Some believe that means the government will step in, as it did during the last financial crisis.

Systemically important "tends to imply that the biggest banks are still too big to fail," said Mike Mayo, a banking analyst with Crédit Agricole Securities. "I see limited evidence that there's a lessening of systemic support."

Credit-rating downgrades would still have important implications for banks. They would likely increase the cost of borrowing for banks as investors demand more compensation for the higher risk.

Moody's rates Bank of America A2, Citigroup A3 and Wells Fargo A1.

Moody's said Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo have unusually high support ratings even compared to other giant banks, whose support ratings now are similar to those from before the financial crisis.

Moody's said it is unlikely it would withdraw the assumption of government backing from all ratings, but noted it might reduce assumptions on other banks as well.

Other banks with some government support built into their ratings, Moody's said, include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and State Street Corp.

Moody's said that it will take into account improvements in asset quality and capital at Bank of America and Citigroup, noting that "this may temper the extent of any ratings downgrades that could result from its review of these firms' unusual level of systemic support."

A Bank of America spokesman said the bank believes its stand-alone rating should be higher because it was last adjusted in November 2009, before initiatives it took to "strengthen our balance sheet, improve capital and liquidity, and reduce our risk profile."

"We welcome the reassessment of our standalone financial strength by Moody's," said John Gerspach, Citigroup's chief financial officer, in a statement.

A Wells Fargo spokeswoman noted the company's ratings "remain among the strongest in the industry."

Write to Matt Phillips at matt.phillips@wsj.com and David Benoit at david.benoit@dowjones.com

[admin]

Greenspan: US no se da cuenta de lo seria que es el problema de su deuda. Nunca antes US se encontro en una situacion como la actual. Se esta terminando el tiempo para solucionar el problema.

-34

[admin]

OIl down 99.82

El Asia cerro a la baja excepto por China, Europa mixta

El euro pasa al alza 1.4491

-30

[PatriPeru]

HOy sale encuesta Pucp, es un hecho, pero no se sabe aquehora, probablemente en la tarde....

[admin]

Se espera que se hayan creado 160,000 empleos en Mayo.

-37

[admin]

Futures cu up 4.0970, Au y Ag a la baja, oil down.

[admin]

Au down 1,529.10

[admin]

Solo se crearon 54,000 empleos, desempleo sube a 9.1%

[admin]

El sector privaado creo 83,000 empleos en Mayo, 232,000 en Abril.

El oro pasa al alza, oil baja, euro sube 1.4505

Los futures se derrumban -125

[admin]

Au up 1,536.40

-133

El indice del dolar 0.13% a la baja

Oil down 99.-1

Yields debajo de 3% en 2.97%

Los salarios por hora suben 0.3%

Este reporte del empleo es el mas debil desde Setiembre.

-138

[Victor VE]

HOy sale encuesta Pucp, es un hecho, pero no se sabe aquehora, probablemente en la tarde....

Esa encuesta va a salir Rojaza!!!