Peru’s Dollar Bonds Sink as Ex-Chavez Ally Humala Claims Election Victory
By John Quigley - Jun 6, 2011 8:50 AM ET .
Peru’s Nationalist Party Leader Ollanta Humala. Photographer: Cris Bouroncle/AFP/Getty Images
.Peru’s dollar bonds tumbled, sending borrowing costs to the highest in four weeks, after former army rebel Ollanta Humala claimed victory in the country’s presidential runoff yesterday and sparked concern that he will seek greater state control of the economy.
Yields on dollar-denominated bonds due 2037 rose 20 basis points, or 0.20 percentage point, to 5.94 percent at 8:35 a.m. in New York, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield spread on Peru notes relative to U.S. Treasuries climbed 18 basis points to 210, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Humala, 48, leader of the Nationalist Party and a one-time ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, had 51.3 percent of votes compared to 48.7 percent for Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori with 88 percent of votes counted. Polls last week showed the candidates were tied. While Humala shifted during the campaign to defending policies that made Peru the fastest growing Latin American economy over the past decade, investors remain concerned he will raise mining royalties and impose greater state control over natural resources.
“While Humala moderated his tone throughout the campaign and certainly compared to the 2006 election, investors are likely to react negatively as uncertainty is still high,” Societe Generale SA strategists led by Benoit Anne in London wrote in a research report.
Peru’s benchmark stock index and currency posted their biggest weekly decline in almost two months in the five days ended June 3 on speculation Humala was headed toward victory. The Lima General Index fell 5.1 percent to 21,227.68, while the sol weakened 0.3 percent to 2.7631 per U.S. dollar.
‘Humala’s Moderation’
Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, told supporters last night she is awaiting final results and will “be the first” to recognize a defeat to Humala.
“We would expect Peruvian assets to come under pressure,” Brian Jackson, an emerging-market strategist at RBC in Hong Kong, wrote in an e-mailed note. “We expect uncertainty to remain in place as the market assesses how ‘real’ Humala’s moderation is.”
To broaden his appeal to Peru’s growing middle class, Humala abandoned rhetoric against foreign mining and natural resource companies used during the 2006 campaign, when he lost the presidency to Alan Garcia by five percentage points. Humala shelved his 198-page campaign platform to back away from an earlier pledge to rewrite the constitution and unilaterally raise royalty fees on mining and gas production.
Peru is the world’s top silver producer, third in copper and zinc and sixth in gold. Export revenue from mineral exports rose by 27 percent to a record $21 billion on surging prices.
Mining Companies
Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO), Peru’s biggest producer of the metal, fell in pre-market U.S. trading. The shares retreated 2.8 percent to $33.75 in New York.
Hochschild Mining Plc (HOC), a producer of silver in Peru, fell to its lowest in four months in London trading, declining 8.1 percent to 502 pence.
“The natural resource companies will be the first ones sold by risk-averse investors,” said Richard Segal, a fixed- income strategist at Jefferies International Ltd. in London. “If he appoints a cabinet quickly and seeks to govern from the center, the damage to market sentiment could be limited.”
Foreign investors moved money into Peru last year as metal prices surged and the economy grew at the second-fastest pace in 16 years, prompting the central bank to raise borrowing costs to contain inflation.
“Investors may pull out of the local currency soberanos bonds as foreigners piled in quickly between May and November of last year,” said Joe Kogan, head of emerging markets strategy at Scotia Capital Markets Inc. in New York. “They haven’t left and they are waiting to see what happens.”
In the two weeks after Humala topped the field in the first Round April 10, sol-denominated bond yields rose to a two-year high and the currency fell to a 10-month low.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima at
jquigley8@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos