Martes 06/07/11 Humala Presidente, que significa eso?

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+43

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Euro up 1.4656

El Fed favorecera cobrarle a los bancos mas grande un 3%

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UBS downgraded Peru debido al riesgo politico de la victoria de Humala.

UBS downgrades UAE, Peru on lacklustre growth
Tuesday, 7 June 2011 at 14:11, Reuters
UBS downgraded the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Peru, citing lacklustre growth and declines in return on equity at the Opec member state and Ollanta Humala's victory in the Latin American country's presidential election.

UAE's economy is slowly recovering from the 2008 financial turmoil, helped by higher oil prices. UAE's economy declined 1.6 per cent in 2009 - its first contraction since 1988.

UBS, in a note to clients on its global emerging markets strategy, downgraded Peru on political risks arising from Humala's victory.

Left-wing former army commander Humala's victory in the presidential election sent Peru's stock market in a tailspin with the main index falling 12.5 per cent, its biggest loss ever, before trading was suspended.

UBS continued to maintain its "overweight" rating on the Bric countries, citing strong fundamentals and growth potential even as it remained cautious on Korea, Taiwan, Eastern Europe and Andean countries like Colombia and Chile.

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Poco a poco los precios ask (de compra) de las 4 Peruanas que cotizan en NY han ido bajando desde el downgraded de UBS.

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A ver si anuncian de una vez al ministro de economia para evitar que sigan dandole downgrades al Peru.

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BVN +2.04%

SCCO +0.68%

Las otras dos no abren todavia.

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Goolsbee, top economista del equipo de Obama renuncia. Otro mas que no quiere trabajar con este presidente.

Libor igual 0.25%

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Miercoles! mas malas noticias, esto no es bueno para el pais.

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La deuda de Peru esta negociando como deuda basura, su riesgo es mas alto que Turkey.



Peru Trading Like Junk as Debt Riskier Than Turkey’s After Humala Victory
By Ben Bain and Belinda Cao - Jun 7, 2011 1:00 AM ET .

Peru's President-elect Ollanta Humala. Photographer: Cris Bouroncle/AFP/Getty Images
.Peruvian debt, rated investment grade, is trading like junk on concern that President-elect Ollanta Humala will boost state control of the economy, raise mining royalties and deter investment.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Peru dollar debt instead of U.S. Treasuries rose to 215 basis points yesterday, 4 above Turkey, which is rated two levels below investment grade by Standard & Poor’s. Peru’s spread jumped 56 basis points, or 0.56 percentage point, since April 8, the last trading day before Humala won a first round of voting.

Peruvian bonds, the currency and stocks tumbled yesterday after voters elected Humala following his pledges to stamp out corruption and extend an economic boom to the nation’s poor. Humala, who in the past has supported Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, toned down his anti-business rhetoric in later weeks of his campaign and said he would emulate the pro-market policies of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

“The markets are more spooked by his presence as president than anything else,” said Enrique Alvarez, head of Latin American fixed-income research at IdeaGlobal in New York. “There’s going to be as lot of pressure from the radical wing in his party to make good on all these different social-type policies that he’s promised.”

Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, conceded defeat yesterday and said she would lead a responsible opposition. “It’s important that the country continues its economic course and that it has clear rules,” the 36-year-old said.

Cabinet Appointment
Humala’s spokesman and vice presidential running mate, Omar Chehade, told Lima’s Canal N yesterday that the president-elect may appoint an ally of former President Alejandro Toledo to head the Finance Ministry in the next few days to reassure Peruvians the country’s economic policies will remain in place.

“The most important thing that people will look at initially is who he’s going to appoint to different posts in his Cabinet,” Jeff Williams, an emerging-market debt strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview.

Humala, 48, said on June 5 he would seek broad backing for his policies and form a government comprised of the most- qualified people independent of their political affiliation. Investors are concerned that Humala will fulfill promises made early in his campaign to increase royalties on mining companies and boost government control over natural resources.

To reinforce his ties with Latin America’s biggest economy, Humala plans to travel to Brasilia and meet with Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, before taking office July 28, Marco Aurelio Garcia, a foreign policy adviser to the Brazilian leader, told reporters yesterday.

Credit-Default Swaps
The cost to protect Peru’s debt from non-payment with credit-default swaps jumped 20 basis points yesterday to 167, the highest since April 27, according to data provider CMA in New York. Before Humala began advancing in pre-election polls, the cost for debt insurance was in line with other investment- grade countries in the region including Brazil, Panama and Colombia.

The yield on Peru’s benchmark dollar bonds due in March 2037 rose 19 basis points yesterday, the most since November 2008, to 5.928 percent.

The sol fell 0.9 percent, the most in almost two years. The stock exchange halted trading after the benchmark index plunged 12 percent, the most since the Lima General Index began in 1981, led by mining companies including Southern Copper Corp.

Peru is the world’s biggest silver producer, and third in copper and zinc. Mining investment helped bring in $7.3 billion in foreign direct investment last year and helped fuel economic growth exceeding 7 percent in each of the past 13 months.

Turkey Comparison

Peru’s spread over Treasuries exceeding Turkey’s represents “a fundamental mispricing, frankly, of both credits,” said Patrick Esteruelas, vice president and senior analyst at the sovereign risk group at Moody’s Investors Service.

”Peru’s credit fundamentals are so unbelievably strong to begin with, which frankly leaves plenty of space for potential additional upgrades if things were to remain as is,” Esteruelas said by phone from New York. “A lot has to go wrong to jeopardize Peru’s investment-grade rating.”

Strong commodity prices, a low debt-to-gross domestic product ratio and a solid fiscal position will temper the decline in Peru’s bonds, said Pablo Cisilino, who helps manage $24.5 billion in emerging market debt at Stone Harbor Investment Partners in New York.

“You have to put things in to the context of where Peru fundamentals are,” he said by phone. “Even if Humala started doing some less market friendly policies, there’s not going to be an immediate deterioration of the credit.”

Credit Ratings
Peru is rated BBB- by S&P and Fitch Ratings, and Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service, the lowest investment grades. Turkey is rated BB by S&P, BB+ by Fitch, and Ba2 at Moody’s, all below investment grade.

Credit Suisse Group AG recommended yesterday that investors take an “overweight” position on Peruvian dollar debt and predicted a decline in the cost of insuring the country’s bonds.

“If Humala shows commitment to market-friendly policies, spreads are likely to narrow,” Credit Suisse said in a note to clients.

As an army lieutenant colonel in 2000, Humala led 50 soldiers who seized and occupied for a week one of Southern Cooper Corp.’s mines to protest corruption in Fujimori’s government. His brother, Antauro Humala, is in jail for killing four policemen during the takeover of a highland town in 2005.

“Humala has to establish his credibility and a strong team, and then think long and hard about his policies that are worrying” investors, said Jaime Valdivia, who helps manage about $1.4 billion of emerging market assets at Bluecrest Capital Management in New York.

To contact the reporters on this story: Benjamin Bain in New York at bbain2@bloomberg.net; Belinda Cao in New York at lcao4@bloomberg.net

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Basicamente, internacionalmente estan amenazando a Humala, lo estan encajonando, claramente el mercado internacional le esta diciendo: te alineas o te destruimos.

Humala tiene que moverse al centro de entrada, no le queda otra. El no hacerlo, seria la ruina para el Peru y el indicador mas grande de que realmente llevara al Peru a la izquierda Chavista que tanto temiamos.

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Es una presion enorme sobre el nuevo gobierno.

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Ya me imagino las peleas que deben haber dentro de los humalistas en estos momentos, entre la linea dura de extrema izquierda y los mas moderados de la linea de Toledo.

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EPU abre al alza +0.45%, solo falta que abra BAP que tambien lo hara al alza.

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RIO +3.03%

Oil down 98.36

Au down 1,545

Euro up 1.4655

+36

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A Humala le fue facil convencer a los Peruanos de las provincias, ahora va a tener que convencer al mercado internacional, el es el que va a tener que cambiar, no tiene alternativa, de no hacerlo el Peru se JODE con mayusculas.

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Me alegro que de entrada (todavia ni empieza) ya lo esten cuadrando. Lo que no pudieron hacer los Peruanos lo hara el mercado internacional.