Viernes 10/06/11 Por fin es Viernes, que tal semana!!

[admin]

Se imaginan a la CGTP en el directorio de las mineras?

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La ley fue aprobada durante los ultimos dias del gobierno de Lula. 59 de las empresas donde el gobierno es el duenio seran afectadas.

Brazil Gives Labor Unions Seat On State-Owned Company Boards
By Matthew Cowley

Published March 11, 2011
| Dow Jones Newswires

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SAO PAULO -(Dow Jones)- Brazil's government on Friday authorized labor union representation on the boards of directors of state-owned companies.

The document was signed by Planning Minister Miriam Belchior shortly before President Dilma Rousseff sat down for her first talks with labor union representatives since she took office Jan. 1.

"It's important because the workers have, from their view point, a permanent vision of the company," Rousseff said in a speech. Later, she said the representation is "strategic for the company itself, it's something strategic for the country."

The law, which paved the way for this authorization, was passed in the final days of the administration of Rousseff's predecessor, former president and union heavyweight Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Both Lula and Rousseff are members of the Workers' Party, the main political body for Brazil's labor movement.

Rousseff praised labor unions for preventing privatizations of state-owned companies in Brazil. "It is important that we remember that the workers, even those from outside of companies, were responsible for their preservation (in state hands)," the president said.

Nonetheless, large numbers of companies were transferred to private-sector ownership in industries such as banking, telecommuications and mining over the last two decades, including during Lula's administration.

Unions will be represented in all state-owned companies with more than 200 employees which, according to the minister, covers some 59 firms.

These include government-run companies such as oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR, PETR4.BR), Banco do Brasil SA (BBAS3.BR), Caixa Economica Federal and the agriculture research firm, Embrapa, according to the ministry.

Copyright © 2011 Dow Jones Newswires

[admin]

Durante el ultimo anio de gobierno de Lula la deuda publica aumento 60%, este anio la deuda publica sera el 60.80% del PBI.

http://www.indexmundi.com/brazil/public_debt.html

[admin]

La deudapublic de Peru es solo el 23% del PBI, la de Brasil es del 60.8%, asi que ya sabemos por donde nos va a llevar Humala. La de Chile es solo el 6%.

La de Brasil es la mas alta de toda Sudamerica.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... ublic_debt

[admin]

El programa de ayuda a los pobres en Brasil tiene consecuencias: se utiliza para comprar votos y los 44 millones de pobres no tienen incentivo por salir de la informalidad ya que deben seguir siendo informales para recibir la ayuda del gobierno.

Es lo mismo que pasa en US, los democratas tienen los votos asegurados de todos los sindicatos. Es una manera efectiva de perpetuarse en el poder. Eso es lo que va a pasar en el Peru. Estan advertidos.


En Brasil el sector informal se ha duplicado en los ultimos anios. Es decir que en lugar de ayudar se perjudica. Ese es el gobierno en todas partes del mundo.
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Unintended Consequences: Brazil’s Bolsa Família Welfare Program
May 11, 2009 in Public Policy | 1 comment
Brazil’s Bolsa Família program has been help up as one of the great social welfare programs.  It has been a model for Mexico’s own Oportunidades social welfare program.  

The Wilson Quarterly reports that the 44 million poor Brazilians who participate in this program receive payments of up to $104 a month for sending their children to school, getting them vaccinated, and sending them to health clinics.  These are large amounts since these families on average earn less than $73 month.  It has been shown that the program has increased vaccination rates and school attendance. 

However, the Bolsa Família program may not be as inocuous as it seems.  Anothony Hall (2008) documents that these grants have been used in some areas to buy votes.  Further, spending on Bolsa Família has crowded out other social spending programs.  For instance, federal spending on basic sanitation and housing fell in real terms by 46% between 2002 and 2004.  Finally, the Bolsa Família may draw people towards working in the informal sector.  Formal sector employment may make a family ineligible for the Bolsa Família grants.  São Paulo’s informal sector doubled in size (to 51%) between 1991 and 2004.  

[admin]

Este anio Brasil extendera aun mas la ayuda a los pobres.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/481eb04e-8d67 ... z1OyMlcIeR

[admin]

No se olviden que los intereses en Brasil son del 12.25%, mientras en Peru son 4.25% y en Chile 5.25%, ya sabemos para donde los va a llevar Humala.

[admin]

Irán dice incremento producción crudo saudí no cambiará mercado
sábado 11 de junio de 2011 06:07 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
TEHERAN (Reuters) - Un aumento en el bombeo de petróleo de Arabia Saudita, Kuwait y Emiratos Arabes Unidos no cambiará las condiciones del mercado ya que la demanda es por crudo liviano, dijo el sábado el gobernador de Irán ante la OPEP, reiterando la postura de Teherán de que no hay necesidad de elevar la producción.

"Estos tres países pueden aumentar sólo la producción de crudo pesado y ácido, mientras que el mercado absorberá el aumento de la producción si es petróleo liviano ya que no hay demanda por crudo pesado", dijo Mohammad Ali Khatibi a un periódico iraní.

(Editado en español por Patricia Avila)

[admin]

ENTREVISTA-Panel reconstrucción Japón ve impulso economía agosto
sábado 11 de junio de 2011 08:19 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
Por Kiyoshi Takenaka y Sumio Ito

TOKIO (Reuters) - Los gastos para reconstruir el devastado noreste de Japón producirán un boom económico más adelante en el año, generando ingresos que podrían ser usados en financiar bonos y reducir la dependencia de deuda a largo plazo, dijo jefe de un panel de recomendación del Gobierno.

Makoto Iokibe, presidente de la Comisión de Diseño de la Reconstrucción, también hizo un llamado por la masiva consolidación de los puertos para impulsar a la industria pesquera y pidió una agresiva inversión para convertir a la región en pionera en desarrollo de energía renovable.

El panel dará a conocer su primera serie de recomendaciones a fines de este mes, estableciendo la guía para el mayor esfuerzo de reconstrucción del país desde los años posteriores a la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Los gastos estimados podrían llegar a 250.000 millones de dólares.

"Deberíamos realizar un tipo de reconstrucción que ayude a la región de Tohoku (el noreste) a emerger como una líder suficientemente vibrante que impulse a toda la economía japonesa. Esa es nuestra postura básica", afirmó Iokibe a Reuters en una entrevista.

Tres meses después del devastador terremoto del 11 de marzo y del tsunami que le siguió minutos después, el cual desató el peor desastre nuclear en el mundo en 25 años, el Gobierno se encuentra bajo una fuerte presión para lidiar con la crisis.

La emisión de bonos para la reconstrucción es un gran reto para el Gobierno, que afronta una deuda pública que ya duplica el tamaño de su economía de 5 billones de dólares, mientras las agencias de calificación amenazan con degradar su calidad crediticia por los altos gastos que el país deberá encarar.

"Si el segundo presupuesto adicional se aprueba este verano (boreal) la actividad de construcción comenzará en el otoño, aumentando la demanda relacionada con la reconstrucción", explicó Iokibe tarde el viernes.

"Los políticos se están inclinando por emitir bonos para la reconstrucción, pero no deberíamos sólo aumentar la deuda sobre futuras generaciones. Los bonos para reconstrucción llevarán a una demanda vinculada al plan y a un boom económico. Entonces puedes recaudar (dinero)", aseveró.

ENERGIA E INDUSTRIA PESQUERA

Aunque Iokibe no fue específico, en el pasado el panel ha discutido la posibilidad de aumentar los impuestos a la renta, corporativos y a las ventas a fin de pagar los créditos para la reconstrucción.

El sismo de magnitud 9,0 y el tsunami en el noreste del país dejaron más de 23.000 muertos o desaparecidos y generó el peor accidente nuclear en el mundo desde Chernóbil en 1986.

Para revitalizar la industria pesquera de la región es necesario consolidar más de 200 puertos, equiparlos con enormes buques pesqueros e instalaciones de procesamiento de productos marinos y construir un centro de distribución, indicó Iokibe.

"(La región) tiene el mejor sector para la pesca. Su arroz y sus frutas tienen reputación internacional como productos algo costosos pero de alta calidad (...) Es importante no sólo restaurar la solidez de Tohoku sino también impulsarlo como el área de los mejores productos de Japón", indicó.

La región de Tohoku, que aloja a la devastada planta nuclear Fukushima Daiichi operada por Tokyo Electric Power Co's, también debería posicionarse como pionera en fuentes de energía renovables, como la solar, agregó el funcionario.

Eso coincidiría con la estrategia develada por el primer ministro Naoto Kan el mes pasado, en la que hizo un llamado para que la energía renovable sea el pilar de la política energética de Japón, mientras que su compromiso sobre las plantas nucleares sería revisado por completo.

(1 dólar = 80,305 yenes)

(Editado en español por Marion Giraldo)

[admin]

La mano maldita del socialismo

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Gasolina más barata del mundo desata contrabando andino
sábado 11 de junio de 2011 08:30 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
Por Girish Gupta

SAN ANTONIO, Venezuela (Reuters) - En un campo polvoriento rodeado de cabañas de madera repletas de envases, conductores venezolanos esperan que sus tanques sean vaciados y la gasolina que contienen se venda.

Minutos antes, habían llenado sus tanques en Venezuela y en un sencillo viaje obtendrán una ganancia de hasta un 4.000 por ciento gracias a la disparidad en los precios del combustible entre los dos países.

Mientras los altos precios de los combustibles angustian a muchos en Occidente, en las calles de Venezuela es frecuente ver camionetas todoterreno y viejos autos estadounidenses de alto consumo de nafta, cuyos propietarios aprovechan que un litro de gasolina cueste 0,02 dólares, el valor más barato del mundo gracias a los generosos subsidios estatales.

Ricardo, un taxista, puede comprar 50 litros de gasolina por un dólar en San Antonio, una pequeña ciudad venezolana de la frontera y vender su carga en Cúcuta, del lado colombiano, por unos 40 dólares.

Intermediarios venden el combustible a cientos de compradores que se colocan en las calles de Cúcuta todos los días, mientras que las pocas estaciones de servicio legales que operan en el pueblo lucen vacías.

"Todo el mundo vende combustible", dijo el conductor colombiano Mario Núñez, mientras carga gasolina contrabandeada a su brillante auto amarillo. Pese al gran margen de ganancia, es más barato comprar la gasolina venezolana que en las estaciones de servicio colombianas.

El contrabando de gasolina es una de las actividades ilícitas que se dan en la montañosa frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela, la que durante años ha sido utilizada para el tráfico de drogas o la actividad de guerrilleros y paramilitares colombianos.

"En esta región nosotros tenemos combustible ilegal, drogas y algunos negocios legítimos. Pero la ganancia se logra del tráfico de combustibles", dijo Núñez.

En el puente internacional Simón Bolívar, nombrado así en honor al héroe independentista latinoamericano, se ven día y noche filas de viejos autos estadounidenses, con gigantescos tanques, cuyos conductores buscan llenar sus bolsillos con el tráfico de combustible.

COSTO ECONOMICO

El presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez, dice que la nación miembro de la OPEP pierde cerca de 1.500 millones de dólares anuales con el subsidio de combustibles.

Analistas, sin embargo, aseguran que el costo real bordea los 21.000 millones de dólares anuales debido a las eventuales ganancias.

"El subsidio es tremendamente ineficiente", dijo Boris Segura, economista del banco de inversión Nomura en Nueva York. "Tiene un enorme impacto negativo en la (petrolera estatal) PDVSA", añadió.

Convertida en la caja chica de la revolución socialista de Chávez y con ambiciosos planes de inversión, PDVSA no puede permitirse tales pérdidas a pesar de que el precio del barril petrolero supere los 100 dólares.

Pero los precios de la gasolina son una vaca sagrada en Venezuela, especialmente después del aumento en 1989 que desembocó en las protestas conocidas como "Caracazo".

"El subsidio es la razón por la que el consumo de gasolina en Venezuela sólo sube. Nadie tiene el incentivo para ahorrar gasolina", agregó Segura.

Y no sólo la economía está siendo afectada.

Chávez a menudo culpa al capitalismo salvaje por no frenar el cambio climático, sin embargo, en su propio país miles de vehículos escupen humo todos los días por su subsidio.

En la frontera, la corrupción es moneda corriente, pero las autoridades locales insisten en que están tratando de erradicar el comercio de combustible.

En noviembre del año pasado, implementaron un sistema automatizado de venta de gasolina, colocando un chip en los vehículos para saber el número de veces que llenan sus tanques.

Ese mecanismo fue suspendido recientemente tras descubrirse en el mercado chips falsos que se vendían por 20 dólares.

(Reporte adicional de Javier Faría; Editado por Marion Giraldo)

[admin]

Economía se desacelera y créditos crecen
BCR ajustará sus estimados económicos para este año. BBVA Continental afirma que economía se desacelera “más de lo previsto”.

Alza de combustible no tendrá impacto, dice el Banco Central de Reserva. (USI)
Ajustando cifras. El Banco Central de Reserva (BCR) reconoció que se ha producido una desaceleración del crecimiento económico en mayo. Pese a ello, estima que el crédito bancario reportará un avance de 21.9% en el quinto mes del año, manteniendo así el ritmo de los últimos 12 meses, aseguró el gerente de Estudios Económicos del ente emisor, Adrián Armas.

“Recordemos que en las proyecciones ya se esperaba un menor ritmo de expansión del PBI, sobre todo en manufactura y en construcción”, reiteró Armas, quien adelantó que el BCR actualizará el próximo viernes sus estimados macroeconómicos para este año.

Refirió que el Banco Central ha hecho una pausa para observar cómo evoluciona (la actividad productiva) y que, luego de ello, definirá qué acciones se tomarán en el futuro.

En tanto, el BBVA Banco Continental consideró que la economía peruana se estaría desacelerando un poco más de lo previsto, considerando algunos indicadores como el retroceso en el consumo interno de cemento, el menor gasto de capital del sector público y la caída de la confianza de los empresarios en abril por la coyuntura electoral.

PRÉSTAMOS. En otro momento, Adrián Armas comentó que el crecimiento en la colocación de créditos se mantiene por encima del 20% desde mayo del año pasado, aunque indicó que habría que analizar lo que está detrás de esa evolución en términos de demanda y de oferta crediticia.

IMPACTO MODERADO. El Banco Central prevé que en junio habrá una inflación moderada. Aunque el precio de los combustibles subió 5% (debido a un ajuste en el Fondo de los Combustibles), el menor costo de algunos alimentos (como el pollo y el azúcar en la primera semana de junio) atenuará el impacto.

Precisamente, ante la evolución de la inflación, que en mayo fue -0.02%, el ente emisor decidió el jueves mantener la tasa de interés de referencia en 4.25% para junio, luego de que la elevara por cinco meses seguidos.

[admin]

Los bonos Peruanos suben a sus niveles mas altos desde el 24 de Marzo.
Latin America  · Emerging Markets
Peruvian Bonds Rise After Central Bank Unexpectedly Leaves Rates at 4.25%
By John Quigley - Jun 10, 2011 4:18 PM ET

Peru’s sol-denominated bonds rose the most in 11 weeks after the central bank unexpectedly kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the first time in six months on a slowdown in growth ahead of this month’s presidential elections.
The yield on the nation’s benchmark 7.84 percent sol- denominated bond due August 2020 fell six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 6.50 percent, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. The bond’s price rose 0.43 centimo to 109.19 centimos per sol, the highest since March 24.
“There is some re-pricing because people were expecting a hike,” said Roberto Melzi, a Latin America strategist at Barclays Capital Inc., in an phone interview from in New York. “There’s still is a lot of risk premium priced in that’s related to the elections.”
The seven-member board, led by bank President Julio Velarde, kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25 percent yesterday, surprising 12 of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg who expected a quarter-point increase. Five economists forecast a pause.
Economic growth in Peru slowed ahead of a victory in the June 5 presidential race by Ollanta Humala, a one-time ally of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Finance Minister Ismael Benavides in a interview this week said policy makers had leeway to keep rates on hold as investors await “clear signals” from Humala on how he’ll manage South America’s sixth-biggest economy.
Investor Uncertainty
Since breaching the top of the central bank’s target range of 1 percent to 3 percent for the first time since mid-2009 in April, the annual inflation rate fell to 3.07 percent last month from 3.34 percent in April. An easing of government spending growth and increases in the benchmark rate has helped tame inflation, Benavides said. Prices in May fell 0.02 percent.
“There’s uncertainty about how quickly investment will pick up so it’s better to wait and see,” said Alonso Segura, head of investment strategy and research at Banco de Credito del Peru, the nation’s biggest bank. Policy makers “still need to raise once or twice more but they’re close to the end of the cycle,” he said.
After posting annual gross domestic product growth of 8.8 percent for 2010 and year-on-year growth of 10.2 percent in January, the government last month cut its 2011 growth forecast for to 6.5 percent from 7.5 percent.
Policy makers said in announcing their rate decision that it “reflects the moderation in the pace of growth in consumer prices and some indictors of activity,” according to a statement on the central bank’s website. “Future adjustments in the benchmark rate will depend on new information about inflation.”
Stock Selloff
Factory output and demand for electricity and cement slowed in April as construction and manufacturing activity eased, the central bank research director Adrian Armas told reporters on a conference call from Lima today.
A cut in fuel tax the government announced yesterday will limit a rise in fuel prices this month to 5 percent, he said. Still, the falling cost of chicken and slower price growth in other products will result in “moderate” inflation this month, Armas said.
Peru’s benchmark stock index plunged a record 12 percent on June 6 on concern the president-elect might make good on campaign pledges to increase government control of the economy and unilaterally boost mining royalties.
Market View
Since the market’s plunge in the first day of trading following the election, the Lima general index staged a three- day rally, recovering most of its record plunge, while Peru’s bonds, and sol currency rebounded.
The sol traded at 2.7615 per U.S. dollar at today’s close, little changed from 2.7621 yesterday.
The bank’s rate “decision was likely influenced by the fact that Ollanta Humala clinched the presidential elections, as this event has generated a sour mood in the market and could have a negative impact on activity in coming quarters,” Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Latin America economist Camilo Gonzalez wrote in a research note e-mailed to investors.
Humala, leader of Peru’s Nationalist Party, shifted his stance during the campaign to defending policies that made Peru the fastest growing Latin American economy over the past decade and distanced himself from his one-time ally, Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.
The 48-year-old president-elect will follow the Brazilian government’s “successful” socio-economic policies to sustain region-beating growth and cut poverty with higher social spending, he told reporters in Brasilia this week.
Wait-and-See
In an interview with CNN’s Spanish-language channel on June 7, Humala said he is considering asking Velarde to remain in his post once his five-year term expires.
The new government is committed to maintaining existing macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal policies, said former central bank President Oscar Dancourt, an aide to Humala who Bank of America said may be a candidate to take over at the central bank.
Still, investors remain wary of Humala, whose original government platform called for changing the constitution to give the state a stronger role in the economy, including its ports and pension system.
Humala needs to send signals about ministerial appointments and future policies to reassure companies, many of which have placed investment projects on hold, said Pedro Olaechea, president of the National Society of Industries.
“Some companies have decided to continue but others are waiting for signs on whether to keep investing or not,” Olaechea said in an interview in Lima yesterday. “It doesn’t make sense to raise rates because of the fall in economic activity.”
Companies curtailed spending and hired fewer staff in April while the sale of cars slowed, wrote Francisco Grippa, an economist at Lima-based BBVA Banco Continental, in a note to clients yesterday.
“Private spending has eased amid a more uncertain environment tied to the change of government,” he said.

[admin]

Ejemplos de la corrupcion en el gobierno socialista de Brasil durante Lula y ahora Rousseff.

Brazil's government
Exit Palocci
The president tries to cut her losses
Jun 9th 2011 | SÃO PAULO | from the print edition

Gleisi is “Dilma’s Dilma”
STAY strong, urged Venezuela’s leader, Hugo Chávez, as he embraced Antonio Palocci in front of politicians and photographers on a visit to Brasília on June 6th. Just a day later Mr Palocci, the embattled chief of staff of Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s president, had resigned. Newspaper revelations last month of his sudden enrichment from political consultancy while a federal congressman from 2006 to 2010 left him open to accusations of influence-peddling. The attorney-general’s ruling that there was no evidence of wrongdoing merely provided face-saving cover for his inevitable exit.

His departure, less than six months into her government, is a setback for Ms Rousseff. By swiftly dumping him she has tried to limit the damage. Her choice of Gleisi Hoffmann, a newly elected senator for the ruling Workers’ Party (PT), as her new chief of staff is a bold, but risky, attempt to recover the political initiative. Unlike Mr Palocci, who had close ties to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Ms Rousseff’s predecessor and political mentor, Ms Hoffmann owes loyalty to nobody but the president herself. “The appointment shows Lula, the PT and every government minister that the president has the courage to exercise her power and make her own choices,” says Alberto Almeida, a political analyst in São Paulo.

It was the second time Mr Palocci has left government under a cloud. As Lula’s first finance minister he was credited with reinventing the former trade-unionist along more centrist lines and persuading him of the merits of fiscal responsibility. His career looked over when scandal forced him to step down in 2006—but worse scandals thinned the leading ranks of the PT to such an extent that Mr Palocci managed to make himself indispensable again. Edward Amadeo of Gávea Investimentos, a fund based in Rio, thinks that without Mr Palocci to counter the PT’s left-wingers, Ms Rousseff may over time stray from the macroeconomic straight-and-narrow. But financial markets reacted calmly to his defenestration.

Related topics
Dilma Rousseff
Antonio Palocci
Brazilian politics
Government and politics
Latin American politics
By appointing Mr Palocci in the first place, Ms Rousseff had sent a strong signal to investors that she could be trusted. But he had quickly morphed from an asset into a liability. He was supposed to act as the political enforcer to keep Ms Rousseff’s unwieldy coalition in line. But the PT’s coalition partners took advantage of his problems to press for concessions. The opposition was fast gathering support for a congressional investigation that would have dominated the airwaves for months.

The choice of Ms Hoffmann came as a complete surprise (her husband, Paulo Bernardo, the communications minister, was hot favourite). Already commentators have christened her “Dilma’s Dilma”: like Ms Rousseff she is a former bureaucrat plucked from political obscurity and appointed as chief of staff because of her managerial prowess.

The corollary is that Dilma must start acting more like Lula. The best advice he could give to other leaders, Lula told The Economist last September, was not to outsource politics. “Whoever was elected must do the politics,” he said. “If he sends a proxy in his place, it won’t work.” It seems that Ms Rousseff has taken that advice. She now has to show that she can be her own political enforcer.

[admin]

Brasil ha aumentado Los sue dos en 7.5% y lo peor es que esta ligado a las pensiones.

Brasil no tiene disciplinary fiscal, el gobierno sigue gastando. Ya Los economistas estan pidiendo una reforma de pensiones, las mujeres se retiran a los 51 anios.

Brasil sera otra Grecia.

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Brazil's economy
Too hot
Latin America’s biggest economy is more fragile than it appears
Jun 2nd 2011 | from the print edition


BRAZIL has a lot to be proud of. A decade of faster growth and progressive social policies has brought a prosperity that is ever more widely shared. The unemployment rate for April, at 6.4%, is the lowest on record. Credit is booming, particularly to the swelling numbers who have moved out of poverty and into the middle class. Income inequality, though still high, has fallen sharply. For most Brazilians life has never been so good.

That success is partly thanks to good luck, in the form of booming commodity prices. But it is also the result of good policies. A country once known for its macroeconomic incompetence has maintained an enviable stability, deftly navigating the 2008 financial crisis as well as the more recent influx of foreign capital. Not surprisingly, perhaps, many of Brazil’s economic officials now have an air of smugness about them, as they argue that the rest of the world has more to learn from Brazil than vice versa.

The timing of such complacency could not be worse. The economy is overheating. The government is stalling on a deeper reform agenda that is essential to boost Brazil’s long-term growth and fiscal stability. President Dilma Rousseff’s growing political problems do not help: her chief of staff, Antonio Palocci, is under fire over fat consulting fees (see article). All this adds up to a warning: Brazil’s economy is heading for trouble.

Related items
Brazil's president: Dilma's first big test
Jun 2nd 2011
Related topics
Latin American economy
Economies
Business
Labour market
Economic indicators
Inflation is 6.5% and rising. It is driven (as elsewhere) by food and fuel costs, but the tightness of Brazil’s labour market suggests that it could easily become entrenched as workers expect higher prices and demand higher wages. The jobless rate is well below the level that is consistent with stable prices. Although professional forecasters’ expectations of future inflation have stabilised, the proportion of ordinary folk expecting higher prices has risen. Wage gains in some sectors are already running into double digits. If the labour market remains red-hot, stubborn and creeping inflation seems all too likely—especially if (as seems probable) foreign investors eventually become alarmed and the exchange rate weakens.

Give it a squeeze

The best way to counter the inflation risk is through tighter macroeconomic policies. Brazil’s central bank has been raising interest rates, but monetary conditions are still looser than before the financial crisis in 2008, when joblessness was much higher. Brazilians fret, reasonably, that faster rate rises will attract even more foreign capital. Lured by high interest rates, investors have piled into the country, sending the currency soaring to an increasingly overvalued rate, despite an expanding arsenal of taxes designed to deter them. Brazilian officials are right to worry about the impact of foreign capital flows, but their emphasis on controls and fear of raising rates have distracted them from a more potent tool: tighter fiscal policy.

Ms Rousseff’s government brags about its fiscal squeeze. Thanks to strong revenues and a slowdown in investment spending, the primary budget (ie, excluding interest payments) is on track to hit a surplus of almost 3% of GDP. But that is not nearly bold enough. To dampen overall demand growth and reduce Brazil’s real interest rates, the government needs far more ambitious fiscal consolidation: with the economy growing strongly, the overall budget (ie, including interest payments) should be in surplus, especially if the government is to have the scope for a fiscal stimulus when the next recession comes. Worse, today’s gains are coming from the wrong sources; rather than slowing investment, the state should be squeezing its transfer payments. Nor are the gains likely to be sustained. Under current rules, Brazil’s minimum wage will rise by 7.5% in real terms next year—at huge fiscal cost, since pension payments are linked to the minimum wage.

Tighter fiscal policy is Brazil’s best defence against short-term economic trouble. An overhaul of government is also the route to boosting longer-term growth. A streamlined state will improve productivity growth as well as Brazil’s saving and investment rates. Pension reform is urgently needed in a country that is ageing fast, has absurdly generous pensions and in which the average woman retires at 51. So, too, is an overhaul of Brazil’s fiendishly complicated and distortive tax system.

Such reforms are difficult, and tempting to put off. But without them Latin America’s biggest success story will start to look a lot less lustrous.

[OrlandoR]

Y que se moleste el que quiera molestarse, no me interesa.

Admin creo que estás sobrereaccionando, en verdad especuladorx no defiende a la izquierda ni a Chávez ni a Obama, solo dice que en estos tiempos siempre se puede encontrar oportunidades en bolsa. Esperemos que al país le vaya bien aunque no sea lo mas probable, pero bolsa y gobierno a veces son cosas distintas. Ver oportunidades en la bolsa no quiere decir defender al gobierno. Tu misma acabas de comprar BVN a niveles de 36 y eso nunca lo hubieras encontrado si entraba Keiko. Y es obvio que preferías que entre Keiko por el bien del Perú y que no te interesaba la bolsa pues no lo es todo, correcto, casi todos votamos por keiko. Pero nuevamente, ver oportunidades en bolsa no quiere decir defender gobiernos socialistas.

No se si yo se quien para aconsejarte algo, pero que tu posición no te ciegue y trate de ver comentarios donde no los hay. Y ciertamente verte tan radical hace que tu opinion pierda valor. Escuchar a alguien amplio y capaz de debatir genera una confianza en la transmision de ideas, pero escuchar a alguien q dice "aqui no hay espacio para defender lo que yo no pienso" hace que uno tome con mucho cuidado tus opiniones pues están extremadamente sesgadas.

Espero no se malentiendan mas comentarios. Saludos

[admin]

Mira Orlando, especulador no necesita que lo defiendas. Estamos entre adultos y nadie tiene por que ofenderse de las ideas de los demas, yo no me ofendo, solo aclaro que combato a la izquierda en el frente de la realidad, la practica.

Expreso mis posiciones con ardor, fuerza, pasion por que esa es mi personalidad, ya todos me conocen, por eso digo el que se quiera ofender que se ofenda.

No estoy molesta con nadie.