Miercoles 14/06/11 PPI, produccion industrial

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Solicitudes de hipotecas
CPI inflacion
Manufactura en NY
Produccion Industrial
Indice de las casas
Reporte del petroleo

3-Yr Note Settlement

10-Yr Note Settlement

30-Yr Bond Settlement

Bank Reserve Settlement 

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET

Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET

Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET

Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
 

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INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
NIKKEI 225 9,551.74 3.95 0.04% 20:20
HANG SENG INDEX 22,496.00 -12.08 -0.05% 06/14
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,572.10 -12.90 -0.28% 20:20

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5:23 p.m. EDT 06/14/11Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note*   -3/32 0.449
10-Year Note*   -31/32 3.103
* at close
8:16 p.m. EDT 06/14/11Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 99.56 0.19 99.37
Gold 1525.5 1.1 1524.4
8:26 p.m. EDT 06/14/11Currencies
  Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 80.55 80.49
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4426 1.4440
† Late Tuesday in New York.

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Los futures del Dow Jones 17 puntos a la baja.

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Copper June 14,20:15
Bid/Ask 4.1396 - 4.1409
Change -0.0196 -0.47%
Low/High 4.1368 - 4.1611
Charts

Nickel June 14,20:15
Bid/Ask 10.0829 - 10.1460
Change -0.0472 -0.47%
Low/High 10.0825 - 10.1800
Charts

Aluminum June 14,14:00
Bid/Ask 1.1753 - 1.1767
Change -0.0001 -0.01%
Low/High 1.1753 - 1.1767
Charts

Zinc June 14,14:00
Bid/Ask 1.0256 - 1.0269
Change +0.0000 +0.00%
Low/High 1.0256 - 1.0269
Charts

Lead June 14,14:00
Bid/Ask 1.1695 - 1.1710
Change +0.0002 +0.02%
Low/High 1.1693 - 1.1710

[admin]

Moody's pondra bajo revision a la banca Francesa.

[admin]

Euro down 1.4412

El Hang Seng -0.03%, Korea -014%, el Shanghai C. -0.33%, el Nikkei +0.1%, Australia -0.14%

El yen up 80.42

Los futures del Dow Jones 26 puntos a la baja.

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Asia Europe Earnings Economy Health Law Autos Management Media & Marketing
La regulacion financiera no sera implementada todavia, esta es una excelente noticia para los republicanos y obviamente el sector financiero.

By DEBORAH SOLOMON And JAMILA TRINDLE

WASHINGTON—U.S. regulators, behind schedule in finalizing key rules mandated by last year's financial-regulatory overhaul, agreed to delay a host of new requirements scheduled to hit the $600 trillion derivatives market next month.

The move offers temporary relief to banks, companies and investors who have worried their use of derivatives—sometimes-complex financial products used to hedge risk or speculate for profit—could run afoul of regulation. Certain parts of the Dodd-Frank financial law automatically take effect July 16, though regulators have yet to issue final rules in affected areas.

On Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission offered a six-month reprieve. It delayed until as late as Dec. 31 the effective date of requirements such as business-conduct rules and registration requirements, which affect those who use and trade derivatives.


Reuters
Gary Gensler

The delay comes amid wrangling over a financial-regulatory landscape that is in some ways largely unchanged since the 2008 financial crisis. Regulators are so mired by the process of writing rules triggered by Dodd-Frank that some of the most vulnerable areas of the financial system haven't been addressed.

Derivatives are especially controversial because critics say they encouraged huge risk-taking and spread damage far and wide during the crisis. American International Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. were among companies battered by derivatives bets.

Regulators gained broad new powers to protect the financial system, including authority to regulate derivatives, impose stricter capital and supervisory requirements on financial firms and regulate consumer financial products.

Yet more than half the 387 sets of rules have yet to be proposed, and many provisions are subject to fights on Capitol Hill.

EXPERIENCE WSJ PROFESSIONALEditors' Deep Dive: Derivatives Watch
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Regulators have yet to designate which nonbank financial firms pose risk to the system and are in need of heightened scrutiny. And a new consumer agency may begin life without some of its tough new powers next month because of political fighting over its director.

Banks, hedge funds, insurers and other market participants have flooded regulators with requests to either slow their rule making or avoid imposing anything too onerous.

More

SEC to Delay Some Swaps Rules 6/10/11
Regulatory Delay Stokes Unease Over Dodd-Frank 6/7/11
U.S. Approves Minimum Capital Standard for Big Banks
Topics: Dodd-Frank Act
On Tuesday, House Republicans proposed cutting the CFTC's 2012 budget by 15% from its current level and 44% from what President Barack Obama requested.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, concerned about the financial overhaul's momentum, recently asked regulators to speak out against efforts to undermine Dodd-Frank, say people familiar with the matter. Administration officials worry that delays could sap momentum for finishing rules as the crisis recedes in the rear-view mirror.

Regulators are making progress in other areas, such as proposing rules that require banks to hold onto some of the risk from mortgage-backed securities. Banks have boosted capital levels beyond precrisis levels, giving them a bigger cushion. But new rules for a much longer list of problems that helped fuel the financial crisis still are up in the air.

The CFTC has been at the apex of concerns because rules it is writing are central to the functioning of financial markets.

The CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission were supposed to finish rules creating a new regulatory framework for trading and clearing derivatives by July 21, the anniversary of the law's signing. The majority won't be complete by then.

But the law mandates that those who use and trade swaps begin complying with certain rules on July 16, such as business conduct and registration regulations. Dodd-Frank also repeals parts of an earlier law that exempted swaps—agreements between parties for payments pegged to the performance of stocks, bonds, commodities or indexes—from being traded on regulated exchanges. Regulators haven't yet built the new regime that is supposed to replace the expiring law, raising the possibility that some trades could be considered illegal.

The just-announced CFTC delay aims to avoid that legal uncertainty, but some lawyers say they remain concerned that deals done after the July deadline could be challenged in court.

In its move Tuesday, the CFTC didn't delay any of the actual rules it is in the midst of writing, but essentially told market participants they don't need to comply with the new regulatory regime for at least six months.

"There have been suggestions to delay implementation of the derivatives reforms included in the Dodd-Frank Act. That is not what today's proposed order is," CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said at a commission meeting. "Instead, it provides the time necessary for the commission to complete the rule-making process to implement the Dodd-Frank Act.

Some lawmakers questioned whether simply delaying the rules was enough. "I have strong concerns that simply replacing 'July 16' with 'Dec. 31' does not provide sufficient certainty to the markets that we won't be right back where we are now at the end of the year," said Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, the top Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee.

Mr. Gensler said a six-month delay would give the market certainty while ensuring the CFTC has enough time to make its rules final. He said the CFTC would vote on final rules beginning this summer and could finish before the end of the year. He rejected a proposal by Scott O'Malia, a Republican commissioner, to delay the effective date indefinitely.

"I think we'll know a lot more" in six months, Mr. Gensler said. "I do think the American public is still very much vulnerable. The crisis in 2008 was very real. The regulatory system failed, Congress reacted, the president reacted."

Simon Johnson, an MIT professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said that since the financial crisis, "the biggest banks and their creditors are more convinced than ever that they would be protected in any future crisis."

Steven Lofchie, co-head of financial services at Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP, said it was unrealistic to expect much to change quickly given the "gargantuan task" regulators face to implement Dodd-Frank. "The regulators are trying to re-create all financial regulation done over an 80-year period in a single year," said Mr. Lofchie.

The financial-services industry has taken some steps to curb risk taking, with firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jettisoning their proprietary-trading desks in advance of federal rules requiring such a move. Banks have also boosted capital levels well beyond pre-crisis levels, although regulators are expected to propose even tougher capital buffers later this summer that set a minimum capital level for depository institutions.

—Victoria McGrane contributed to this article.

[admin]

Aqui esta la noticia de que estan pensando recortar los impuestos a los sueldos para impulsar la economia. Desde un principio se le dijo a Obama pero no hizo caso.

15, 2011
Payroll Tax Cut Idea Joins Debt Talks
White House Floats the Notion of Extending and Widening the Breaks to Stimulate Economy; Lukewarm GOP Response

President Barack Obama is considering how strongly to push for extending a payroll-tax break for workers and creating a new tax break for employers to jump-start the economy, reflecting White House concerns about joblessness but also complicating efforts to rein in the federal deficit.

White House officials brought up the ideas during closed-door debt talks Tuesday with a bipartisan group of lawmakers, people familiar with the meeting said. They told the lawmakers that the White House would be open to payroll tax breaks for employers and employees, sending a clear signal that fresh concerns over slowing job growth have spilled into discussions about how to reduce the deficit.

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Vice President Joe Biden is surrounded by reporters as he leaves Tuesday's session of the bipartisan group trying to reach a deficit-reduction plan.

Supporters of such tax breaks believe they spur job growth, which could improve the country's fiscal footing over time. But the provisions could make the budget deficit—projected to rise to $1.5 trillion this year—worse in the short term. White House press secretary Jay Carney said Tuesday the tax breaks were "certainly worth looking at."

Vice President Joe Biden said the group had made "real progress" Tuesday in its efforts to craft a budget deficit reduction plan by July 1, which would clear the way for lawmakers to raise the government's $14.29 trillion borrowing limit. Mr. Biden said, "We're down to the real tough stuff now and everybody's still in the room. We're going to meet all week."

However, the payroll tax idea received a lukewarm response on Capitol Hill. Even Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R.,Utah), a stong past supporter of payroll tax relief, reacted cautiously. "I'd like an independent analysis of its effectiveness," he said.

Government figures showed that hiring slowed sharply in May and the unemployment rate rose to 9.1% from 9%. Getting the unemployment rate lower is seen as key to Mr. Obama's re-election effort next year.

White House officials could try to woo Republican support for raising taxes on the wealthy by including the payroll tax breaks in a deal. But a Senate Republican aide said there was "no chance" Republicans would accept the payroll tax breaks in exchange for higher tax rates on upper-income families.

In December, the White House and Congress agreed on a deal that cut the Social Security payroll taxes paid by employees to 4.2% of earnings from 6.2% for one year, saving taxpayers as much as $2,136 this year. They did not lower the 6.2% payroll tax rate paid by employers.

The payroll holiday came at an estimated cost of $111.7 billion. Social Security payroll taxes were expected to fall short of covering benefit payments in 2011 by $163 billion. That continues a trend that started in 2009, although the 2011 gap is much larger because of the tax cuts.

The Social Security program's overall income still is expected to exceed overall costs for 2011, due to Treasury payments that cover the tax cut's impact, as well as other income sources.

The Biden group wants their framework to be completed well before Aug. 2, when Treasury officials say the government could begin defaulting on its financial obligations. But so far the White House and Republicans remain far apart on what to do with key issues such as taxes and entitlement programs like Medicare.

White House officials are resisting Republican calls for deep spending reductions this year, warning they could hurt the fragile economy, and have instead called for some tax increases as well to reduce the deficit over time. Most Republicans counter that tax increases would harm the economy and can't be included in any deal.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned all sides not to play "brinksmanship" with the debt ceiling, and to conduct the deficit-reduction talks separately. "In debating critical fiscal issues, we should avoid unnecessary actions or threats that risk shaking the confidence of investors in the ability and unwillingness of the U.S. government to pay its bills," Mr. Bernanke said Tuesday.

Treasury officials have warned that failing to raise the debt ceiling could cause interest rates to soar, triggering another financial crisis or recession. But some Republicans are skeptical, and have suggested the White House could avoid a default on the government's debt by making interest payments and cutting back on other spending.

Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf called such a move a "dangerous gamble" because it would be difficult to anticipate the consequences. He said even a minor increase in the cost of U.S. borrowing could force the country to pay $130 billion in additional interest payments over 10 years.

[admin]

Obama tiene que salirse del playbook de la izquierda y usar la estrategia de los republicanos de recortar los impuestos, segun los izquierdistas los recortes de impuestos de Bush causaron todos los males del pais. Asi que ya se imaginan el arrastre de risa que esto causa.

Estan totalmente perdidos, no tienen la minima idea de como funciona la economia. Ahora es totalmente obvio que son incompetentes para manejar el pais.

[admin]

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[admin]

S&P recorta a los constructores Chinos de estable a negativo debido a las restricciones del credito. Pronostican mas recortes de ratings en los proximos 6 meses.
S&P Cuts China Property Developers to ‘Negative’
By Bloomberg News - Jun 14, 2011 10:27 PM ET


June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ronald Wan, managing director at China Merchants Securities Co. in Hong Kong, talks about the outlook for Chinese monetary policy and equities. Wan speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)
Chinese developers’ outlook was cut to “negative” from “stable” by Standard & Poor’s, which cited tighter credit and further government curbs which may lead to rating downgrades in the next six months to a year.
Property sales may start to slow as the government’s policy takes effect, leading to price cuts as developers push sales to meet funding needs with limited liquidity, the credit rating company said in a statement today. It also said Hong Kong’s real estate market faces the risk of a “sharp correction.”
“We expect the sales momentum to slow as policy tightening starts to bite,” Bei Fu, an analyst at S&P, said in the statement. “We’re likely to see more negative rating actions among Chinese developers in the next six to 12 months because tightened onshore credit conditions and increasingly restrictive government policy have deepened the market downturn.”
The People’s Bank of China yesterday raised banks’ reserve ratio requirements for the ninth time since October, following four interest rate increases. The government said last month it will maintain curbs after intensifying measures this year with higher minimum down payments for second-home purchases and the introduction of residential property taxes in Shanghai and Chongqing.
Moody’s Earlier Cut
Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook for China’s property sector to “negative” from “stable” on April 14 on concern residential sales could decline by as much as 30 percent as local governments enforce housing curbs. The ratings firm said 10 property companies, including Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. (813) and Greentown China Holdings Ltd. (3900), will be “more vulnerable” in terms of their liquidity positions if contracted sales decline by 25 percent from the previous year.
The government this week said May home sales transaction value rose 17 percent from April as developers marketed more residential projects during the Labor Day long weekend even as the government maintained its housing curbs. The value of homes sold increased to 380.9 billion yuan ($58.8 billion) from 324.9 billion yuan in April, based on the difference between the statistics bureau’s data for the first five and four months.
April new home prices increased in all but three of the 70 Chinese cities monitored by the government. The national statistics bureau is scheduled to report May’s home price data on June 18. Nationwide prices rose 0.5 percent in May, the ninth consecutive month of gains, as smaller cities withstood government curbs, SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), the country’s biggest real estate website, said on June 1.
Bubble Risk
“I can’t say a bubble will never happen, there’s always a risk of asset bubbles in any economy including China,” Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., said in an interview in Shanghai today. “The important signal Chinese authorities have sent is unlike their counterparts in the West, they are focused on relieving or deflating bubbles before they become a major problem for the economy.”
Many developers had increased liquidity ahead of an expected market downturn, S&P said, which raised their refinancing risks with the concentration of debt maturities.
“We expect meaningful price adjustments in the second half of 2011,” Fu said. “If sales volumes remain sluggish, developers’ liquidity will quickly dry up, suggesting sporadic price discounting will likely intensify.”
Greentown’s contracted home sales year to date was 17 billion yuan, less than expected, RTHK reported on June 13, citing the company’s Chief Executive Officer Shou Bainian. The Hangzhou-based developer is “unsure” about achieving the sales target for 2011, RTHK said, citing Shou.
Property Index Rises
The measure tracking property stocks on the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.6 percent as of 10:07 a.m. in Shanghai trading, after falling 0.7 percent earlier. China Vanke Co., the country’s biggest publicly traded developer, lost 1 percent to 8.09 yuan in Shenzhen, while Poly Real Estate Group Co., the second largest, increased 0.6 percent to 10.24 yuan.
China’s inflation accelerated to 5.5 percent in May, the fastest pace in almost three years, and industrial output grew more than economists forecast. The annual gain in consumer prices matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Production rose 13.3 percent last month, the statistics bureau also said in Beijing yesterday. That compared with a median 13.1 percent forecast.
S&P said Hong Kong’s real estate industry faces the risk of a correction because of the city’s “soaring market.”
Hong Kong Sales
Sales at 10 of Hong Kong’s biggest private residential developments fell 58 percent over the weekend from a week earlier after the city’s government last week raised minimum down payments and deposits for foreign buyers.
Seventeen transactions took place, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd., the city’s biggest privately held realtor, after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on June 10 said buyers of homes costing more than HK$6 million ($770,000) will have to increase up-front payments. Foreign buyers must deposit an additional 10 percent.
Measures to curb property prices in the city may further dent buyer sentiment that is already showing signs of weakening following a recent drop in home deals and as banks accelerated mortgage interest rate increases this year. It was Hong Kong’s fourth attempt since October 2009 to curb inflating residential values, rated by Savills Plc as the world’s most expensive.

[admin]

Goldman pronostica record rally del cobre. Los inventarios de cobra en China podrian haberse reducido a la mitad en Los ultimos dos meses.
Related News:
China  · Commodities  · Asia
Copper Users in China Plunder Stockpiles as Goldman Forecasts Record Rally
By Glenys Sim - Jun 14, 2011 9:17 PM ET

Workers supervise the unloading of Peruvian copper concentrate from a ship berthed at Nanjing Huining Wharfs Co. Ltd. in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China. Photographer: Kevin Lee/Bloomberg
Copper stockpiles in China may have halved over the past two months as users in the metal’s largest market drew down reserves in bonded and exchange-monitored warehouses, paving the way for more imports and higher prices.
Inventories in bonded warehouses, which aren’t disclosed, may have dropped to about 300,000 metric tons, according to estimates from traders and analysts in China including Shanghai East Asia Futures Co. At the end of March, bonded warehouses held about 600,000 tons, according to Standard Bank Plc.
Increased shipments into China, which uses about 8 million tons of refined copper per year, or 40 percent of global demand, may spark a rebound in prices that have slumped from an all-time high in February. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) restated a call last week for a rally in copper to a record amid forecasts for a worldwide deficit as miners can’t produce the metal fast enough.
“Metal has been leaving the bonded warehouses at quite a steady pace because it is the peak-demand season,” said Jia Zheng, a trader at Shanghai East Asia. “China is still growing, which is keeping demand robust,” said Jia.
Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange peaked at $10,190 per ton on Feb. 15, before tumbling in March, April and last month amid concern that global economic growth may be slowing, cutting demand. The metal, used in pipes and wires, traded at $9,153 per ton at 8:31 a.m. in Singapore.
Higher prices would benefit Phoenix, Arizona-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), Chile’s state-owned Codelco, and Australia’s BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the top three producers last year, according to London-based researcher CRU.
Industrial Production
China’s policy makers have been raising interest rates and ordering banks to set aside more cash to curb inflation that rose 5.5 percent in May, the fastest pace since 2008. Data this week also showed industrial production gained 13.3 percent in May, faster than forecast. The World Bank predicts China’s economy to expand 9.3 percent in 2011.
“Demand has definitely picked up,” said Che Hongyun, deputy director of research at Galaxy Futures Co., who also estimated that holdings in bonded warehouses have dropped to about 300,000 tons over the past two months.
Bonded warehouses are used to store shipments before duties are paid. The amount of copper held in separate stockpiles and tallied by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which is disclosed weekly, fell 53 percent from this year’s high on March 17 to 83,275 tons last week.
‘Drew Massively’
Demand in China last month “was likely being met largely out of inventory, which drew massively,” Goldman analysts Allison Nathan and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a June 10 report. The report stuck with a 12-month price forecast of $11,000.
Copper stored in bonded warehouses has fallen about 150,000 tons in the past two months, Macquarie Group Ltd. (MQG) said in a June 6 report. The bank had estimated the stockpiles were 550,000 tons on April 18.
Barclays Capital analyst Gayle Berry also said bonded holdings have dropped and forecast an increase in imports, according to a June 3 report. The Chinese market “is awakening from the destocking cycle that lasted nine months,” Barclays Capital analyst Nicholas Snowdon said on June 9.
Data yesterday from China’s statistics bureau showed copper-products output was 979,000 tons last month, 20 percent more than the same month a year ago. China’s imports of copper and copper products were 254,738 tons last month, 36 percent lower than a year earlier, according to data on June 13.
Higher Imports
The “latest numbers from China show that the country is drawing down its domestic inventories rapidly,” Tobias Merath, the Zurich-based head of global commodity research at Credit Suisse AG, wrote in a note yesterday. “China will have to step up its imports in the coming months.”
“Downstream demand is steady,” said Li Ye, an analyst at Minmetals Starfutures Co., referring to manufacturers that use copper to make products. “Traders have little problem finding buyers for metal once it leaves the warehouse.”
Near-term copper supplies in China have been more expensive than longer-dated contracts since April, suggesting increasing demand or tighter short-term availability. Spot copper in Shanghai’s Changjiang, the biggest cash market, was 850 yuan-a ton more than futures yesterday.
China’s copper imports have fallen as local output has risen and prices overseas have been more expensive, making imports unprofitable for traders who seek to exploit price gaps between markets. Refined-copper output in China hit a record 470,000 tons in March and was 439,000 tons in May.
Copper in London has traded at a premium to futures in China, falling 2.3 percent between April 1 and May 31 compared with the 3 percent drop in Shanghai, where prices include a 17 percent value-added tax. Copper for August delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 0.8 percent to 67,700 yuan ($10,449) a ton yesterday.
The International Copper Study Group has forecast a 377,000-ton global shortage this year. High prices will last “a substantial amount of years” on demand from China, Diego Hernandez, Codelco’s chief executive officer, said June 8.

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7:17 a.m. EDT 06/15/11Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   1/32 0.428
10-Year Note   6/32 3.082
* at close
7:22 a.m. EDT 06/15/11Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 99.06 -0.31 99.37
Gold 1519.4 -5.0 1524.4
7:33 a.m. EDT 06/15/11Currencies
  Last (bid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 80.69 80.49
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.4313 1.4440
† Late Tuesday in New York.

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Las solicitudes de hipotecas subieron 13%.

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